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Ken Baksh – Could England win?……and Russia?
JP Morgan Russian Securities PLC –GB0032164732
Never a market or currency for the faint-hearted, but could possibly all the current news re volatile oil price,sanctions, questionable corporate governance and uncertain international political relations be in the RUSSIAN price? I believe that some of the more positive factors, itemised below, have been ignored and that some exposure, perhaps through the fund mentioned below could be added at this stage as part of the emerging market allocation.
- Recent macro statistics have been more stable with steady increases in retail sales, industrial production, construction and corporate lending. GDP growth forecasts are in the 1.5-2.0% area for 2018
- The CBR is expected to continue cutting interest rates this year and next. Inflation is retreating, from a high level, and surpluses in both current account and Budget are in stark contrast to several other “emerging markets”.
- Within the banking sector, credit growth is recovering, and non-performing loans appear to have peaked.
- Recent OPEC/Russia “agreement” seems likely to keep the oil price at a level highly beneficial to major oil companies and State coffers. Energy companies make up more than half of those in the MSCI Russia Index.
- Earnings per share growth is exceeding expectations.
- Depending on index sample chosen, a P/E ratio between 6 and 7 and Price Book ratio at approximately 0.7 puts investment ratios are at a considerable discount to the emerging market universe, let alone the global market average. Recent Bestinvest research puts the global equity PE at about 18.5, roughly three times as much as Russia
- The total Russian market offers a yield of about 5.7%(2.6% global average, source:Bestinvest) as earnings and pay-out ratios continue to rise. According to VTB Bank projections in January 2018, dividends expressed as a percentage of State government revenues are expected to rise from 1% to about 3% between 2016 and 2019.
- Institutional investors of Emerging markets funds are starting to carry much higher weightings In Russia, by comparison with markets which may be much more highly rated e.g. India, or in political turmoil e.g. Turkey, or have serious economic problems e.g. Venezuela.
- Current emerging market volatility is being exacerbated by withdrawal of dollar liquidity, rising U.S interest rates and a resurgent dollar with Turkey, Brazil,Indonesia,South Africa and Venezuela often being cited as more “fragile”.
- Prospective investors could look at individual stocks such as Sberbank and Lukoil or JPM Russian Investment Trust (detailed below). Income seekers may additionally look at the Raven Russia preference share, currently on an 8.1% annual yield, paid quarterly in sterling.
The instrument described below is speculative and can be highly volatile
- The investment trust JP Morgan Russian Securities plc is a UK listed investment trust, which provides pure exposure to the Russian economy and, as at May 31st May, held over 99% of it’s assets in Russian equities.
- JP Morgan was an early investor in Emerging Europe and the Middle East, and the Russian team is led by Oleg Biryulyov who has over 20 years’ industry experience.
- As at the same date, the Fund’s major holdings were Gazprom (15.3%), Sberbank (12.3%), Lukoil (10.3%), Norilsk (7.1%) and Novatek (6.5%)
- Apart from some of the national champions mentioned above, the fund also holds some promising smaller cap ideas including, in the top ten,Ros Agro,a vertically integrated Russian food producer and the second largest player in the domestic pork and sugar markets.
- As at 18th June,the fund had a relatively low gearing of 2.6%.
- The trust itself currently trades at 15.6% discount, close to it’s five year low and offers a yield of 4.2%, with the prospect of above average dividend growth.
- Clearly the trust will be highly sensitive to ongoing geo-political developments and the oil price but might suit a more adventurous portfolio on the current rating.
http://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/j/jpmorgan-russian-securities-ordinary-1p
https://www.trustnet.com/factsheets/t/hx56/jp-morgan-russian-securities-plc
Ken Baksh
Ken has over 35 years of investment management experience, working for two major City institutions between 1976 and 2002.
Since then he has been engaged as a self-employed investment consultant. He has worked with investment trusts, unit trusts, pension funds, charities, Life Fund,hedge fund and private clients. Individual asset managed have included direct equities and bonds pooled vehicles currencies, derivatives and commodities.
Projects undertaken in a number of areas including asset allocation, risk control, performance measurement, marketing, individual company research, legacy portfolios and portfolio construction. He has a BSc(Mathematics/Statistics) and is a Fellow Member of the UK Society of Investment Professionals.
Disclaimer
All stock recommendations and comments are the opinion of writer.
Investors should be cautious about all stock recommendations and should consider the source of any advice on stock selection. Various factors, including personal ownership, may influence or factor into a stock analysis or opinion.
All investors are advised to conduct their own independent research into individual stocks before making a purchase decision. In addition, investors are advised that past stock performance is not indicative of future price action.
You should be aware of the risks involved in stock investing, and you use the material contained herein at your own risk
The author may have historic or prospective positions in securities mentioned in the report.
The material on this website are provided for information purpose only.
Please contact Ken, (kenbaksh@btopenworld.com) for further information
Ken Baksh – Brexit worries?…Think instead about European Property play,on a discount with dividend yield over 5%..payable quarterly in Euros,if desired
Schroder European Real Estate Investment Trust-ISIN- Gb00By7R8K77
Launched in December 2015, the Schroder European Real Estate Investment Trust targets growth regions in Continental Europe and aims to provide a regular and attractive level of income together with the potential for long term income and capital growth.
With a certain degree of uncertainty surrounding the UK commercial property market (slowing economic growth, BREXIT) increasing number of investors are looking to continental Europe for their real estate exposure, and the SERE would seem to tick many boxes.
Ideal for an investor seeking above average income, with predominant exposure to European economies, and exhibiting low correlation with several other asset classes.May suit more cautious investor looking for income,paid quarterly, with lower correlation with mainstream bond and equity markets.
Following recent Interim figures published on June 12th-Hot from Press!
Results released on Tuesday 12th June, show Net Asset Value increasing 6.1% over the last six months to March 31st,2018 to Euro 1.39(£1.22), and dividend pay-out moving towards the company target of 5.5% on issue price. The current LTV ratio is 28%, and the company’s weighted interest cost is around 1.3% with a duration of over 6 years. The fund is fully invested in a portfolio with a value more than Euros 237 million and is currently 97% occupied. At current price of 113.5p, the stock trades on a discount to NAV of approximately 7% with a prospective annual yield of 5.4% payable in Euros or Sterling.
- Eurozone economic data continues to remain positive, growing faster than the UK over recent quarters and this relative outperformance is expected to continue. Private business surveys point to further growth and property and investment activity remains robust. A recent sample of German companies, for instance, showed rents rising between 4% and 6% over the last twelve months.
- SERE invests in cities/regions characterised by large liquid real estate markets such as Amsterdam, Berlin, Hamburg, Munich and Paris where local GDP are outperforming the national averages.
- The Trust is managed by Jeff O Dwyer, an experienced real estate investment manager, who is supported by nearly 100 property specialists located in key European hubs. The team see over Euro 2 billion of introductions each month, with the near-term pipeline comprising over Euros 115 million yielding between 5.8% and 7.5%.
- The process/risk control involves holding the bulk of the portfolio in stable income producing developments (approx. 70%) while adding a greater capital return component to the other 30% via refurbishments, change of use, lease extensions etc. A large portion of the rents are index linked.
- The purchase of a data/mixed user investment in Apeldoorn in February this year, on a very attractive 10% income yield leaves the fund fully invested.
- Geographical weighting is currently Germany (22.7%), France (50%), Holland and Spain (27%) by value. Approximately 45% of the property portfolio is represented by offices and 40.3% by retail, the latter predominantly in logistics centres, smaller supermarkets and convenience stores. These figures were effective on March 31, 2018.
- The top five properties were in Paris, Seville, Berlin and Biarritz.
- Portfolio is almost 100% occupied with a 6.8 years average lease time and net property income yield of 6%
SERE targets a fully covered Euro yield of 5.5%(7.5 Eurocents on a Euro equivalent issue price of Euro1.37). Dividends are declared in Euros, and paid quarterly, with UK shareholders being given the option of sterling or Euro pay-outs. Lease structures vary across Europe, but most typically have some form of inflation linkage, providing support for the target dividend.
Current discount to NAV (Euros 1.347-December 31st, 2017) represents a good level to be obtaining exposure to mainstream European property.
- The portfolio seeks to enhance property returns with a relatively modest level of gearing currently 28% LTV, (35% target LTV). The blended all in debt cost is 1.3% with an average maturity of around 6.5 years.
- Closed end fund structure with daily liquidity via a listing on the main market of the London Stock Exchange.
www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/SERE/13675397.html
Sources (LSE,company management and Numis Securities)
Ken Baksh
Ken has over 35 years of investment management experience, working for two major City institutions between 1976 and 2002.
Since then he has been engaged as a self-employed investment consultant. He has worked with investment trusts, unit trusts, pension funds, charities, Life Fund,hedge fund and private clients. Individual asset managed have included direct equities and bonds pooled vehicles currencies, derivatives and commodities.
Projects undertaken in a number of areas including asset allocation, risk control, performance measurement, marketing, individual company research, legacy portfolios and portfolio construction. He has a BSc(Mathematics/Statistics) and is a Fellow Member of the UK Society of Investment Professionals.
Disclaimer
All stock recommendations and comments are the opinion of writer.
Investors should be cautious about all stock recommendations and should consider the source of any advice on stock selection. Various factors, including personal ownership, may influence or factor into a stock analysis or opinion.
All investors are advised to conduct their own independent research into individual stocks before making a purchase decision. In addition, investors are advised that past stock performance is not indicative of future price action.
You should be aware of the risks involved in stock investing, and you use the material contained herein at your own risk
The author may have historic or prospective positions in securities mentioned in the report.
The material on this website are provided for information purpose only.
Please contact Ken, (kenbaksh@btopenworld.com) for further information
Ken Baksh – Portfolio diversification..6% annual yield and 6% discount to assets for European property investment trust idea!
Schroder European Real Estate Investment Trust-ISIN- Gb00By7R8K77
Launched in December 2015, the Schroder European Real Estate Investment Trust targets growth regions in Continental Europe and aims to provide a regular and attractive level of income together with the potential for long term income and capital growth.
With a certain degree of uncertainty surrounding the UK commercial property market (slowing economic growth, BREXIT) increasing number of investors are looking to continental Europe for their real estate exposure, and the SERE would seem to tick many boxes.
Ideal for an investor seeking above average income, with predominant exposure to European economies, and exhibiting low correlation with a number of other asset classes
Following a recent meeting with management members, I update my initial note as below,
Results released on December 06,2017, show Net Asset Value increasing 13% over the last full year (September Year End) to Euro 1.33, and dividend pay-out moving towards the company target of 5.5% on issue price. At current price of 111.5p, the stock trades on a discount to NAV of approximately 6% with a prospective annual yield of 5.9% payable in Euros or sterling.
- Eurozone economic data continues to remain positive, growing faster than the UK over recent quarters and this relative outperformance is expected to continue. Private business surveys point to further growth and property and investment activity remains robust. A recent sample of German companies, for instance, showed rents rising between 4% and 6% over the last twelve months.
- SERE invests in cities/regions characterised by large liquid real estate markets such as Amsterdam, Berlin, Hamburg, Munich and Paris where local GDP is outperforming the national averages.
- The Trust is managed by Jeff O Dwyer, an experienced real estate investment manager, who is supported by nearly 100 property specialists located in key European hubs. The team see over Euro 2 billion of introductions each month, with the near-term pipeline comprising over Euros 115 million yielding between 5.8% and 7.5%.
- The process/risk control involves holding the bulk of the portfolio in stable income producing developments (approx. 70%) while adding a greater capital return component to the other 30% via refurbishments, change of use, lease extensions etc. A large portion of the rents are index linked.
- The purchase of a data/mixed user investment in Apeldoorn in February this year, on a very attractive 10% income yield leaves the fund fully invested.
- Geographical weighting is currently Germany (30%), France (50%), Holland and Spain (20%) by value.
- The top five properties were in Paris, Seville, Berlin and Biarritz.
- Portfolio is almost 100% occupied with a 6.8 years average lease time and net property income yield of 6%
- Loans of approx. Euros 73 million (compared with assets of approx. Euros 233 million), are usually employed on a loan to individual property asset basis, and in aggregate enjoy a maturity of about 6.6 years and interest rate of 1.3%
SERE targets a fully covered Euro yield of 5.5%(7.5 Eurocents on a Euro equivalent issue price of Euro1.37). Dividends are declared in Euros, and paid quarterly, with UK shareholders being given the option of sterling or Euro pay-outs. Lease structures vary across Europe, but most typically have some form of inflation linkage, providing support for the target dividend.
Current discount to NAV (Euros 1.347-December 31st, 2017)) represents a good level to be obtaining exposure to mainstream European property.
- The portfolio seeks to enhance property returns with a relatively modest level of gearing currently 25% LTV, (35% target LTV). The blended all in debt cost is 1.3% with an average maturity of around 6.5 years.
- Closed end fund structure with daily liquidity via a listing on the main market of the London Stock Exchange.
Sources (LSE,company management and Numis Securities)
By Ken Baksh
Ken has over 35 years of investment management experience, working for two major City institutions between 1976 and 2002.
Since then he has been engaged as a self-employed investment consultant. He has worked with investment trusts, unit trusts, pension funds, charities, Life Fund,hedge fund and private clients. Individual asset managed have included direct equities and bonds pooled vehicles currencies, derivatives and commodities.
Projects undertaken in a number of areas including asset allocation, risk control, performance measurement, marketing, individual company research, legacy portfolios and portfolio construction. He has a BSc(Mathematics/Statistics) and is a Fellow Member of the UK Society of Investment Professionals.
Disclaimer
All stock recommendations and comments are the opinion of writer.
Investors should be cautious about all stock recommendations and should consider the source of any advice on stock selection. Various factors, including personal ownership, may influence or factor into a stock analysis or opinion.
All investors are advised to conduct their own independent research into individual stocks before making a purchase decision. In addition, investors are advised that past stock performance is not indicative of future price action.
You should be aware of the risks involved in stock investing, and you use the material contained herein at your own risk
The author may have historic or prospective positions in securities mentioned in the report.
The material on this website are provided for information purpose only.
Please contact Ken, (kenbaksh@btopenworld.com) for further information
Ken Baksh – Do you have enough…..commodities?
Black Rock Commodities Income Investment Trust –ISIN GB00B0N8MF98
Commodities have made a strong start in 2018, rising to a three-year high. The Bloomberg Commodity Spot index hits its highest level since 2014 last week after strong readings for manufacturing activity around the world and increased global demand forecasts. A weaker dollar and various supply constraints/worries such as Libya, Iran, North Sea pipeline affecting oil supply and Chinese shutdowns affecting various metals.
Resource companies themselves have cut spending on new projects and have generally stronger balance sheets and are returning more to shareholders.
One way of accessing this sector is through the Black Rock Commodities Income Investment Trust.
The object of this investment trust is to achieve an annual dividend target, (currently 4p), and over the long term, capital growth, by investing primarily in securities of companies operating in the mining and energy sector.
- The fund predominantly invests in large quoted equities, the split between oil and mining being approximately oil, majors plus exploration/production 38%, mining 46%, miscellaneous 16% as at end November 2017.
- Underlying major mining companies, have for the large part responded to the historic weaker trend in resource prices, maintaining balance sheet discipline and adjusting their cost bases.There have been some examples of spectacular self-help stories e.g. Glencore and Anglo American Mining.
- Recent mining conferences have highlighted the need for increased use of Lithium, Cobalt, Nickel and Copper relating to Electronic Vehicles.BRCI has been building exposure to these elements over the last couple of years. For example, Glencore is now one of the leading global suppliers of Cobalt, a vital component for rechargeable batteries.
- Rising economic growth projections, supply constraints and a changing OPEC stance have significantly helped the prospects of the major oil companies held. Royal Dutch, for instance, has announced much better than expected results and offers a dividend yield over of over 6%. Statoil and Total also confirmed the more favourable trend for oil majors.
- As at End November 2017, the Fund ‘s major holdings featured Royal Dutch (6.1%), First Quantum (9.3%), Rio Tinto (6.7%), BHP (6.6%), Glencore (5.0%), and Chevron (4. 5%).The top ten holdings represented nearly 52% of the total portfolio, a relatively concentrated stance.
- The global nature of these companies provides exposure to non-sterling currencies, especially the US dollar. This can benefit both capital and income when sterling is on a weaker trend.
- On a TECHNICAL NOTE, it should be noted that energy and material stocks represent about 25% of the FTSE100 index. If using this as a broad benchmark, the weighting in these sectors can materially affect the relative performance of UK active and passive funds.
- As well as targeting financially strong dividend paying equities the company also employs option writing strategies and an element of gearing, currently near 3%, to further improve the sources of income.
- On an annual yield, over 5%, (payable quarterly), this trust represents a high income longer term value play, but investors should be aware of the volatility of the underlying sector-maybe another reason to adopt a pooled approach. The trust currently trades at a current discount to net assets of near 6%, near the year’s low, compared with the premium on which it traded for most of the last five years (see graph below). The company operates a discount management procedure from time to time.
Sources:Trustnet,London Stock Exchange,Corporate Web Site,Numis.
by Ken Baksh
Ken has over 35 years of investment management experience, working for two major City institutions between 1976 and 2002.
Since then he has been engaged as a self-employed investment consultant. He has worked with investment trusts, unit trusts, pension funds, charities, Life Fund,hedge fund and private clients. Individual asset managed have included direct equities and bonds pooled vehicles currencies, derivatives and commodities.
Projects undertaken in a number of areas including asset allocation, risk control, performance measurement, marketing, individual company research, legacy portfolios and portfolio construction. He has a BSc(Mathematics/Statistics) and is a Fellow Member of the UK Society of Investment Professionals.
Disclaimer
All stock recommendations and comments are the opinion of writer.
Investors should be cautious about all stock recommendations and should consider the source of any advice on stock selection. Various factors, including personal ownership, may influence or factor into a stock analysis or opinion.
All investors are advised to conduct their own independent research into individual stocks before making a purchase decision. In addition, investors are advised that past stock performance is not indicative of future price action.
You should be aware of the risks involved in stock investing, and you use the material contained herein at your own risk
The author may have historic or prospective positions in securities mentioned in the report.
The material on this website are provided for information purpose only.
Please contact Ken, (kenbaksh@btopenworld.com) for further information