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Ken Baksh – December Investment Monthly
In our December investment review, Ken discusses the macro picture in the US, Europe, China and Japan before looking at the effects of inflation. We then look at moves over the past 2 months before moving to the UK economy and issues such as consumer confidence, the trade deficit and Govt deficit, insolvencies and recession expectations. Ken highlights the good job that PM Rishi Sunak has done in steadying the ship, before we look at how previous stock picks in October and November have performed. These include Legal & General #LGEN, Smith & Nephew #SN, Begbies Traynor #BEG, Greencoat UK Wind #UKW, Whitbread #WTB, Frontier IP #FIPP, Enquest Bond #ENQ2 and Georgia Capital #CGEO. Ken then picks out four more stocks for growth, These are:
Chemring #CHG
Lloyds Preference Share #LLPC
Asia Dragon Trust #DGN
Legal & General Cyber Security ETF #ISPY
DECEMBER 2022 Market Report
Investment Review
Summary
During the one-month period to 30th November 2022, major equity markets, as measured by the
aggregate FTSE All – World Index, rose by over 5%, reducing the year-to-date loss to 18%, in $ terms.
Chinese equities, were very strong gaining over 30% and taking the broad emerging market indices
and Asia with them. The VIX index fell, finishing the period at a level of 22.22.
Government Fixed Interest stocks also rose over the month. The UK 10-year gilt ended the month on
a yield of 3.16% with corresponding yields of 3.77%, 1.94% and 0.25% in USA, Germany, and Japan
respectively. Speculative and lower quality bonds, however,fell in price terms. Currency moves
featured a weaker US dollar. Commodities were mixed.
News
Over the recent month, the OECD has made further downgrades to world economic growth and
anecdotal evidence from several third quarter reporting companies suggests that the slowdown is
accelerating. e.g. Maersk (“freight rates peaked….decreasing demand”).
At the same time, key data indicators (factory gate and commodity prices, shipping rates, inflation
expectations) suggest that headline price growth is set to slow in coming months, although labour
compensation developments must be watched carefully .
More volatility expected in oil prices as western countries prepare to impose a price cap on Russian
crude.
FTX,a leading crypto exchange,and a sprawling network of affiliated firms filed for bankruptcy
protection dealing another blow to the crypto sector.
US
Recent US Federal Reserve meetings and informal comments by Jerome Powell and other Fed
governors remain hawkish and further increases are expected though calls for 50bp rather than
75bp are increasing. The latest rise took the benchmark rate to the 3.75%/4% range.At a speech at
the Brookings Institute yesterday,the Fed Chairman sent mixed signals that the fight against
inflation “had a long way to go” while also sending a strong hint that the next rate rise,mid
December, would be 50bp rather than 75bp
would be Downward projections to economic growth, and upward moves to inflation forecasts
were also released.
Recently announced inflation indicators showed October headline CPI of 7.7%, lower than estimates,
while the core inflation rate rose by 6.3%. First quarter negative GDP growth followed by second
quarter of -0.9% signals a “technical recession”, although labour/employment trends still seem
reasonably robust. Third quarter preliminary GDP growth of 2.6%, annualised, while higher than
estimates concealed a weaker consumer component offset by a strong trade balance. Recent
consumer sentiment indicators (November composite PMI for example), retail sales, housing
activity, construction figures and the Empire States Survey back this up, showing declining trends
into recent weeks. . The Fed’s own forecasts expect GDP growth of 0.2% and 1.2%, and core PCE
growth of 4.5% and 3.1% respectively for 2022 and 2023
US midterm election results showed the Republicans narrowly taking control of the House of
Representatives while the Democrats retained the Senate, a situation which could minimise more
extreme policies, but also thwart some of Biden’s ambitions. Donald Trump has vowed to return in
2024, although the Republican Party is far from united at the current time
EUROPE
The European Central Bank raised interest rates by half a percentage point on July 22nd, and a further
75bp in September also pledging to support surging borrowing costs from sparking a eurozone debt
crisis. The ECB raised interest rates by another 75bp, to their highest level since 2009, on 27th
October, pledging to continue increasing borrowing costs in the coming months to tackle record
inflation, despite a looming recession. On 29th November, Christine Lagarde, the ECB president,
warned that the bank was “not done” raising interest rates, saying that inflation “still has a way to
go”.
First quarter 2022 GDP for the Eurozone showed a weaker than expected trend especially in
Sweden, Italy and Germany and more recent indicators show a continuation of this trend,
exacerbated by the Russia/Ukraine conflict, supply chain issues, and rapidly increasing costs. The
“flash” PMI figure for October, released on the24th October, fell to 47.1 the lowest since November
2020, although German quarterly GDP growth figures, just released, were marginally ahead of
expectations.
Current ECB staff projections foresee economic growth of 2.8% for 2022, a sharp reduction on the
previous forecast, and further downgrades could be likely in the wake of the ongoing Ukrainian
conflict and related gas shortages.
November Eurozone inflation, just released, of 10.0% was lower than expected.with slower gains in
energy and services ,and faster growth in food prices.
ASIA excl JAPAN
The GDP figures, shown below (source: CLSA, CEIC) show that 2022 and 2023 growth
projections for the Asia excl Japan region compare favourably with those of other developed
regions. The reasons include a “better” Covid experience, selective commodity exposure,
tourism, continued FDI Investment (especially China related) and better initial fiscal
situations (compared with late 90’s for example) and limited direct connections with the
Russia/Ukraine situation. The forecasts do not assume a total easing of Chinese covid rules.
Headline inflation of around 5% (core 3%) also compares favourably.
Geo-political concerns must be taken into account, especially In Taiwan.
The 5.5% official GDP growth target for 2022 looks clearly unachievable, with some investment
banks now forecasting below 3%. Official data shows weakening trends in consumer spending, fixed
asset investment and construction activity while more recent “live” tracking data e.g., mobility,
cement production and electricity use also showed subdued economic activity. Official data for the
third quarter, just released shows growth of 3.9%. The major historic negative issues of a very
restrictive anti-Covid policy and major disruption within the property market have now been
supplemented by increasing US restrictions on the production/export of certain key electronic
products.
At the time of writing a property “rescue” package has been implemented, while on the Covid front,
tens of thousands of people have taken to the streets protesting strict coronavirus controls and
suppression of freedom of speech, triggering clashes with police and security forces.While nothing is
certain in Xi’s approach to the Covid Pandemic, there is a growing feeling that certain measures will
be relaxed/increase in vaccination.
The Japanese economy contracted 1.2% on an annualized basis during the third quarter of 2022,
missing forecasts of 1.1% growth, and considerably weaker than the 4.6% expansion recorded during
the second quarter. This was the first down quarter of the year reflecting weak domestic
consumption, a slowdown in business investment and an acceleration in imports. Estimates for the
full year seem to fall mainly within the 1.5%-2.0% band. Inflation, while still well below international
peers, rose by 3.6% in October, the highest since 1982, driven by currency weakness.
Recently the Japanese government unveiled a $197 billion stimulus package to ease the impact on
consumers of soaring commodity prices and a falling yen, while the BoJ stuck by its ultra-loose
policy, maintaining very low interest rates and re-affirming it yield control policy.
UNITED KINGDOM
Within the UK, live activity data (e.g November Gfk data) continues to show a weaker overall trend,
especially within the services sector. According to this survey, released late November, covering the
mid November period, consumer confidence remains very low, amid the cost-of-living crisis.The
retail sales figure for October did however show a slightly better than expected reading but this may
have been distorted by the Queen’s mourning period . Unemployment, however, is still at a very
low level, although recent official figures did show a tentative slowing in hiring intentions.
Inflation continues to rise, the October CPI and RPI readings registering hikes of 11.1% and 14.2%
respectively. Kantar and the ONS both reported food/grocery prices rising about 15% year on year as
well as turkey/egg shortages.Happy Christmas!
The PSBR was starting to deteriorate again, largely as a results of rapidly rising interest (index linked)
payments and expectations of higher public sector pay and state pensions. The most recent “official”
figure showed September PSNB at £20 billion, much larger than forecast and the second largest
since monthly records began in 1993, according to the ONS.
Despite some relief with the recent energy price package, until April at least, (but not other utilitiessee below), shop price inflation, greater Council Tax “freedom”, upward interest/mortgage rate
pressure, stalling house prices, accelerating rents, insolvencies/evictions, legacy Brexit issues and ,
strike activity, will continue to be headwinds and the outlook for economic growth over coming
quarters is highly uncertain. Both the Bank of England as well as the OBR and now the OECD are
expecting recessionary conditions for one to two years.
Experts at consultancy EY-Parthenon reported that company profit warnings had jumped from 51 to
over 86 over the third quarter of 2022 citing increasing costs and overheads as the main reason,
especially in consumer facing businesses. Another report from Begbies Traynor, Latest Red Flag Alert
Report for Q3 2022 – 07:00:07 19 Oct 2022 – BEG News article | London Stock Exchange quoted that
over 600,000 business were already in severe financial distress.
Monetary policy has tightened from a 0.1% interest rate in December last year to the 1.25% rate set
in June and a further 50bp at the August, meeting, followed by 50bp in September, taking the
benchmark rate to 2.25%. Markets are expecting rates to be above 4.0% by mid-2023.
Autumn Statement
On 17th November, Chancellor Hunt told a sombre House of Commons that a massive fiscal
consolidation including £30 billion of spending cuts and £25 billion of tax rises was needed to restore
Britain’s credibility and tame inflation. The OBR said they expected the economy to shrink 1.4% and
not regain pre -pandemic levels until 2024.Inflation was expected to remain over 7% next year.
While many of the proposals had been leaked, and the market reaction was muted (first objective
achieved!), there were a few positive surprises (e.g help for NHS and education) and several
negatives.
From an investor point of view the reduction in tax free allowances for investment income and
capital gains, was higher than expected. Make full use of ISA etc while can!
Monthly Review of Markets
Equities
Global Equities rose over November (+5.02%) extending the quarterly recovery and reducing the
year to date decline to 18.04% in dollar terms. All major indices climbed with especially large gains
registered in China, which also benefited Emerging Market and FT Asia-excl Japan bourses.
Continental European indices were also relatively strong, while the NASDAQ and Nikkei lagged in
relative terms. The VIX index fell over the month to end November at a level of 22.22. The ten –
month gain of 29.04% reflects the degree of risk aversion compared with the” relative calm” of last
December (medical, geo-political and economic!)
UK Sectors
Sector moves were again very mixed over the month although most ended in positive territory. The
few losers included telco’s and tobacco On the other hand, miners, utilities, life companies,
financials,retailers and food were relatively strong. The FTSE100 outperformed the All-Share Index
and is about 3% ahead of the broader index since the beginning of the year. By IA sectors, UK active
unit trusts are underperforming benchmark indices, trackers etc, so far this year, with small
company funds even more so. Income based funds, by contrast, are significantly outperforming the
averages. “Balanced” funds, by IA definitions, are falling by about 8%-10% so far this year (Source:
Trustnet November 30th).
Fixed Interest
Major global government bonds rose in price terms over November, the UK 10-year yield for
instance finishing the month at a yield of 3.16%. Other ten-year government bond yields showed
closing month yields of 3.77%,1.93% and 0.25% for US, German and Japanese debt respectively. UK
corporate bonds also bounced strongly, up approximately 4% on the month in price terms.
Speculative bonds, however, bucked the trend falling in price terms.
Year to date, the composite gilt index has fallen approximately 22% underperforming UK higher
quality corporate bonds in price terms and more so in total return.
Check my recommendations in preference shares, selected corporate bonds,fixed interest ETF’s ,
zero-coupons, speculative high yield etc. A list of my top ideas from over 10 different asset classes
is also available to subscribers.
Foreign Exchange
Currency moves featured a sharp fall in the US dollar, largely following the better-than-expected
inflation rate. Sterling rose against the US dollar but fell against the Japanese Yen and Euro. Currency
developments during November also included modest strength in the Chinese Yuan.
Commodities
A mixed performance by commodities during November with weakness in Oil and many agricultural
commodities and strength in copper, Iron ore and the precious metals. Year to date, uranium and
the energy complex are strongly up in price terms while industrial metals copper, aluminium and
iron have all shown price declines of over 13%. Gold has also dropped in dollar terms by about 3% so
far this year.
Looking Forward
Major central banks have remained hawkish with reducing QE/commencing QT and accelerating the
timing and extents of rate increases as the main objectives, especially where inflation control is the
sole mandate. In a growing number of smaller economies where US contagion, politics, commodity
exposure inflation/fx are also issues, several official increase rate increases have already taken
effect. Japan, however, has continued to adopt stimulative measures, up to now.
Global Government Bonds have stabilised somewhat although differing inflationary outlooks and
supply concerns could lead to continued volatility in the sector.
For equities, the two medium term key questions will be when rising interest rates eventually cause
equity derating/fund flow switches, government, corporate and household problems, and how the
rate of corporate earnings growth develops after the initial snapback. Going forward, withdrawal of
certain pandemic supports, uncertain consumer and corporate behaviour and cost pressures are
likely to lead to great variations by sector and individual company. The third quarter reporting
season produced several negative surprises e.g large American technology companies and UK
building and property companies.
Observations/Thoughts
ASSET ALLOCATION
As well as maintaining an overweight position in UK equities, it may be worth initiating or adding to
Japanese positions within an international portfolio. The US market has fallen about 19% so far this
year (NASDAQ -30%) but remains a relative underweight in my view. Margin pressure headwinds,
political uncertainty, prospective dollar weakness and technology sector volatility must be balanced
against the current stock market ratings. Continental European equities appear cheaply rated in
aggregate, but great selectivity is required. Within the Emerging market space I currently favour
exposure to the Far East.
Another major asset allocation decision would be to keep part of the conventional “fixed interest”
portion in alternative income plays in the infrastructure, renewables, and specialist property
areas. Many instruments in this area provide superior capital growth, income, and lower volatility
than gilts for example. Recent stock market volatility has brought several renewable stocks back to
attractive levels.
I am also adding selected preference shares to the “fixed interest” allocation, where annual yields
of approximately 6% are currently available.
UK Equities continue to remain a relative overweight in my view, based on several
conventional investment metrics (see above), longer term underperformance since the
Brexit vote, style preference (value overgrowth) and international resource exposure
although be aware of the numerous domestic headwinds I have highlighted above.
Value should be favoured over growth, and the FTSE 100 favoured over the FT All-Share.
Apart from the style drift, remember that the non sterling element of leading FTSE 100
companies and sectors is relatively high
By sector, Oil and Mining equities continue to benefit from above average yields, strong
balance sheets, dollar exposure and secular demand e.g copper, cobalt for electronics,
construction, electric vehicles etc. Any moves regarding Chinese re-opening the economy
would be another positive for this sector.
Remain overweight in pharmaceuticals and underweight in non-renewable utility stocks
which may suffer from consumer and government pressures, and no longer trade on yield
premia, especially against the backdrop of higher gilt yields.
Construction materials, especially cement will benefit from growing
infrastructure/renewable initiatives., although rising cost pressures and falling housing
activity must also be considered.
Banks, may enjoy some relative strength from rising interest rates, but continue to
monitor the recession/loan growth and default risks.These mixed trends were very
evident in the recent third quarter figures. Preference Shares as well as ordinary shares
have attractions in this area
Housebuilders and real estate-expect depressed activity and remember that the rising
interest rates have not yet been fully factored into bricks and mortar property yields.
Industry data and anecdotal news from both housebuilders and REIT’s suggest further
weakness to come.
Retailers are in general suffering from a combination of falling sales and rising costs and
clear trends in consumers “trading down” are apparent. Certain on-line operations e.g
Asos additionally are suffering from an element of post-Covid comparison.
Domestic Breweries/pubs etc are having a hard time with stalling consumer’s
expenditure, supermarket competition and rapidly rising costs.
Airlines may suffer as a result of large dollar costs, uncertain foreign travel outlook and
often high debt levels
Extra due diligence at stock level more generally will be required as I expect a growing
number of profit warnings and downbeat forward looking statements. See the EY and
Begbies statements on page 7 above.
However,takeover activity is also clearly increasing with, for example, private equity
snapping up UK-listed companies at the fastest pace for more than twenty years. Foreign
takeover, stake building is also increasing, current weak sterling being a factor, with
Vodafone under scrutiny by a French (who already have BT interest!) investor. Biffa (waste
management),MicroFocus(technology),Aveva(software) and RPS(professional services)
have all succumbed to foreign takeovers in recent months, much by “strong dollar”
American or Canadian organizations.
JAPANESE EQUITIES also remain an overweight in my view, although my recent
comment re hedging may “nuanced “now following the extreme currency weakness and
surprise intervention. Unlike most other major economies, Japan is expected to continue
its easy money policy. Exporters have benefitted from the plunging Yen although higher
input costs and more “off-shoring” also must be considered. The prospective price/book
ratio of 1.19 is attracting interest of corporate and private equity buyers, while the
prospective yield of 2.6% is above the world average and compares very favourably with
USA (1.7%). Corporate governance is rapidly improving with diverse boards, reduction of
cross holding, higher dividends etc. There are clear signs that inward investment attracted
by the pro-growth, pro-deregulation agenda and relatively low costs (average Japanese
annual wage $30000 compared with $75000 USA) is increasing. Private equity stake
building interest in Toshiba and growing activity in the property sector (discount on a
discount in a cheap currency) demonstrate the search for value in Japan. Investors may
wish to adopt a partially rather than fully hedged FX position following recent
developments
On a valuation basis (see table above) the forward PE multiple of 12.9 is at a considerable
discount to the world, and especially US average (18.0)
EMERGING MARKETS-Very difficult to adopt a “blanket” approach to the region even in
“normal times”, but especially difficult now, with so many different COVID, commodity,
sectoral mix, debt, geo-political and increasingly natural disaster variables. The IMF recently
warned that several emerging nations could disproportionately suffer from a combination of
COVID and adverse reaction to “tapering” by developed counties e.g., FX/Interest rate
pressures. Six countries have already defaulted during the pandemic, and the IMF is currently
in various stages of bail-out discussions with Pakistan,Argentina,Zambia,Sri
Lanka,Ghana,Tunisia and Egypt.
Within the emerging/frontier universe I continue to have a relatively positive view on Asia.
The economic fundamentals were discussed on page 16 above, and the forward-looking
multiples and dividend growth metrics appear relatively attractive in a global context. Any
move by China to open more fully after their severe Covid lockdown, would of course
additionally help. Exposure to the entire area can be achieved through a number of ETF’s and
also investment trusts currently on discounts
If a country-by-country approach is adopted, I have a longer term positive view on Vietnam
where, the nation is supported by positive demographics, with a population of near 100
million, an emerging middle class, and a recipient of strong foreign direct investment.
Qualconn,an Apple supplier, Intel(semi-conductors),Lego and Samsung(mobile phone plant)
have all recently invested in new capacity in the country. Other big names moving chunks of
production from China to Vietnam include Dell and HP (laptops), Google(phones)and
Microsoft (Games Consoles) The economy is expected to grow at around 6.5% this year (7.7%
Q2 2022) and current inflation is running at about 3.5%. On a relatively low prospective PE
based on forecast earnings growth over 20%, Vietnamese equities appear good value. India,
although quite highly rated and a major oil importer, warrants inclusion in a diversified
portfolio, and is currently receiving some fund flows from “overweight” Chinese portfolios.
Indonesia, the last of my current Asian ideas benefits from a commodity boom, strong
domestic market, low debt, relatively stable currency, forecast 5% GDP growth and 5%
inflation
Caution is required in many South American markets with poor COVID-19 situations,
deteriorating fiscal balances, weak investment, low productivity (see below) and
governments in a state of transitioning e.g Brazil. However, some stock market
valuations currently appear interesting in the region, which, so far, has been relatively
unaffected by events in Ukraine. Commodity exposure, deglobalization beneficiary,
valuation and recovery from a very low-level account for some year-to-date stock
market relative out- performance. Many of these countries also raised interest rates
at an earlier stage, allowing relative currency strength, compared with say the Euro,Yen or Sterling.
Certain areas within Central Europe are starting to receive more attention, mainly on
valuation grounds, but the lingering Covid effects and indir
ect effects of the Russia/Ukraine invasion should be borne into account. Regarding the
latter, a reduction/termination of Russian gas supply could have a serious recessionary
impact in certain countries. Large refugee influxes e.g Poland are also starting to
create budgetary/social issues.
Comments re great selectivity above also apply to emerging market debt. For the
more adventurous fixed interest investor combinations of well above average yields
(sometimes caused by pre-emptive moves last year), stable fiscal and FX situations
and, diversified economic models could provide outperformance from carefully
selected bonds.
• COMMODITIES– Gold spiked to over $2000 in March, a recent high, when Russia invaded
Ukraine, but has since fallen about 12%, although of course, remaining reasonably stable in
many local currency terms . The longer-term prospects for more cyclical plays continue to
look brighter. Increased renewable initiatives, greater infrastructure spending as well as
general growth, especially from Asia, are likely to keep selected commodities in demand at
the same time as certain supply constraints (weather, labour and equipment shortages,
Covid, transport) are biting. Anecdotal evidence from reporting companies RTZ, BHP and
Anglo American appear to suggest that the industry is enjoying a bumper time, and with
disciplined capex programmes, extra dividends and share buy-backs are commonplace!
Current rumours of a cautious relaxation of the Chinese Covid policy, may provide a boost to
base metals.
• Wheat and other grain prices have fallen from the levels reached following the Russian
invasion of Ukraine, but the current grain shipment complications, planting/harvesting
schedules within the region and extreme global meteorological conditions are expected to
lead to further price volatility. If the conflict is prolonged it will affect millions of people
living in such places as Egypt, Libya, Lebanon Tunisia, Morocco, Pakistan and Indonesia that
could have political consequences. There has been renewed interest in agricultural funds as
well as the soft commodities themselves.
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE remains a longer-term theme, and will be built into
the many infrastructure initiatives, being pursued by Europe, USA, and Asia. The
Russia/Ukraine conflict is accelerating the debate, and hopefully the action. There are
several infrastructure/renewable investment vehicles which still appear attractive, in
my view, combining well above average yields and low market correlation with low
premium to asset value. The recent volatility in natural gas prices has highlighted both
risks and opportunities in the production and storage of energy from alternative
sources. However, increasing levels of due diligence are required, in committing new
money to the area overall. Financial watchdogs across the world are sharpening their
scrutiny of potential “greenwashing” in the investment industry on rising concerns that
capital is being deployed on misleading claims.
• However, in the shorter term, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has precipitated a global
energy crisis, that has forced countries, especially in Europe to look for ways to quickly
wean themselves off Russian oil and gas, and reconsider timelines of commitments to
cut the use of fossil fuels. At the time of writing, it seems highly likely that USA will
increase oil and gas output, UK North Sea may see further investment and EU coal
consumption could increase.
• Another area currently in the ESG purist cross hairs is “nuclear”. Ignoring the fact that
nuclear weapons have not been used in anger since 1945, and the fact that some deterrent is
needed, (now?), where should the confused investor stand when it comes to nuclear power
substituting coal power? Japan, UK and Germany are all studying proposals to revive their
nuclear power capacities. I have some interesting “uranium play” ideas for those interested.
• ALTERNATIVE ASSETS-this group, encompassing private equity, private debt, hedge
funds, real estate, infrastructure, and natural resources is expected to continue growing both
in actual and relative terms over coming years.
Traditional asset management groups are racing to expand offerings in alternative
investments as they seek to boost profitability and head off competition from private
equity groups (see graph below).
I have, for a while, recommended some exposure to this area maybe as part of the
former “gilt allocation”. With strong caveats re liquidity, transparency, dealing
process, I still adopt this stance, continuing to use the investment trust route. So far
this year, gilts have declined approximately 24% while my favoured UK renewable
closed-end funds have appreciated by around 6% in capital terms and delivered about
6% in annual income. Please contact me directly for specific ideas
COMMERCIAL PROPERTY The MSCI/IPD Property Index showed a sharp fall in the total return across all
properties in October, the decline of 6.4% (-6.8% capital values, +0.4% income),taking
the year to date return to -1.6% (capital -5.2%,Income +3.8%).The monthly decline
accelerated the downward trend started in July this year, especially in Industrial
Properties. Rental growth however was positive at +2.4% in October..or 4.4%
annualised for the ten month period
Several analysts are down grading their estimates for the sector following the rapid move
in UK longer and shorter-term interest rates. Property asset valuations take time to
materialise where there is a lag between balance sheet date and results publication in
the listed area. Live traded property corporate bonds, however, have already moved
sharply lower.
Quoted property giants British Land and Land Securities both reported deteriorating
conditions witing their third quarter statements, expecting further valuation declines
following rising yields.
Full asset allocation and stock selection ideas if needed for ISA/dealing accounts, pensions.
Ideas for a ten stock FTSE portfolio. Stock/pooled fund lists for income, cautious or growth
portfolios are available. Hedging ideas, and a list of shorter-term low risk/ high risk ideas
can also be purchased.
I also undertake bespoke portfolio construction/restructuring and analysis of legacy
portfolios.
Independence from any product provider and transparent charging structure
Feel free to contact regarding any investment project.
Good luck with performance!
Ken Baksh Bsc,Fellow (UK Society of Investment Professionals)
kenbaksh@btopenworld.com
1st December ,2022
Important Note: This article is not an investment recommendation and should
not be relied upon when making investment decisions – investors should conduct
their own comprehensive research. Please read the disclaimer.
Disclaimer: Opinions expressed herein by the author are not an investment
recommendation and are not meant to be relied upon in investment decisions.
The author is not acting in an investment, tax, legal or any other advisory
capacity. This is not an investment research report. The author’s opinions
expressed herein address only select aspects of potential investment in
securities of the companies mentioned and cannot be a substitute for
comprehensive investment analysis. Any analysis presented herein is illustrative
in nature, limited in scope, based on an incomplete set of information, and has
limitations to its accuracy. The author recommends that potential and existing
investors conduct thorough investment research of their own, including detailed
review of the companies’ regulatory filings, and consult a qualified investment
advisor. The information upon which this material is based was obtained from
sources believed to be reliable but has not been independently verified.
Therefore, the author cannot guarantee its accuracy. Any opinions or estimates
constitute the author’s best judgment as of the date of publication and are
subject to change without notice.The author may hold positions in any of the
securities mentioned
The author explicitly disclaims any liability that may arise from the use of this
material.
Ian Pollard – Costa Sale Brings Large Share Buy Back For Whitbread Shareholders.
Whitbread plc WTB Completed the sale of Costa to The Coca-Cola Company for £3.9bn on 3 Jan 2019, ahead of schedule. Over 2,000 new rooms were added with occupancy high at over 80%. UK like for like sales growth fell by 0.6% over the quarter and 0.7% over the year. Despite the high occupancy rates accommodation was the main culprit for the decline with falls of 1.5% and 2.2% respectively. International sales growth was much stronger and helped to save the day with rises of 3.5% over the quarter and 4.1% over the year. The company claims that it has experienced a momentous year with the sale of Costa for 3.9 billion but this current year is going to be much more momentous for the shareholders, as the sale has enabled the company to commence the distribution of largess with an initial share buyback program of up to £500 million.
Associated British Foods plc ABF has issued a trading update for the 16 weeks to the 5th January. Group revenue from continuing operations was 2% ahead of the same period last year at constant currency. Sales at Primark were 4% ahead of last year, at both constant currency and actual exchange rates. Sales at Primark were 4% ahead of last year, at both constant currency and actual exchange rates, and with a higher operating profit margin, profit was well ahead. Primarks share of the total clothing market increased significantly and sales were 1% ahead of last year.
Workspace Group WKP experienced strong demand in the third quarter. The Chief Executive claims they have continued to see a great deal of activity across the whole of the business. Demand for newly refurbished space in London has been particularly pleasing
SSP Group plc SSP has had a good start to the new financial year. First quarter total group revenue increased by 7.6% on a constant currency basis Full year expectations are that like for like sales growth for the Group remains unchanged at between 2% and 3%.
Villas & houses for sale in Greece; http://www.hiddengreece.net
Ian Pollard – Whitbread #WTB, a solidly good year!
Whitbread plc WTB can not quite make its mind up as to whether its full year results are good or solid, so to be on the safe side, it claims they are both.On an underlying basis revenue rose by 2.6% and profit before tax by 2.5% which is hardly impressive. On a statutory basis, operating profit and profit before tax rose by 0.1% and 0.2% respectively, which appears to be neither good nor solid. Even solidly good seems to be a bit of an exaggeration.
The man event of the year was was the sale of Costs to Coca Cola for £3.9bn. A significant majority of the net cash proceeds will be returned to shareholders but not just yet because regulatory approval is still required from the EU and perhaps more importantly China. Trump had perhaps best tread carefully on the sanctions front if he wants Coca Cola to get its approval. The one figure which does stand out among these somewhat mundane results is that the shareholders are to be well looked after with a dividend rise of 4%.
Bunzl plc BNZL Third quarter Group revenue rose by 7% at constant exchange rates due to a mixture of organic growth of approximately 4% and an impact from net acquisitions, of approximately 3%. This is as expected at the time of the half year results.Since then Bunzl recently has entered into an agreement to acquire Volk do Brasil which .will expand its already well established safety business in Brazil
Plus500 Ltd PLUS expects trading for 2018 will now be ahead of expectations. Despite a third quarter drop in revenue of 14%, the nine month figures show a healthy rise in revenue of 86% whilst the number of new customers has risen by 19% and the number of active customers by 74%.
Intu Properties plc INTU has continued to deliver a strong and resilient operational performance from 1st July to the 23rd October but it has not been able to ignore the fact this has been a particularly challenging period for UK retailers. Rent reviews settled in the period have on average been 5 per cent above previous reviews but significantly anticipated growth for 2018 is expected to be no more than 0 to 1% as tenant failures impacted the figures by some 1.5 %.and footfall for the year fell by 1.3%. The occupancy rate however rose to 97%
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Ian Pollard – Whitbread #WTB UK Decline Turned Into “Growth”
Whitbread plc WTB tries to put a brave face on its first quarter results by headlining sales growth and expansion and ignoring the unhappy reality. The truth is that growth is due to investment in new hotels and new Costa stores. On a like for like basis the quarter has been, to put it politely, uncomfortable, with falls in every division led believe it or not by Costa the former jewel in the crown, now looking a bit tarnished with a fall of 2%. Total group “UK growth” should be renamed total UK decline with the like for like group total down by 1.3%. Fortunately the fairly blatantly misleading headlines are unlikely to mislead many.
Ultra Electronics ULE expects that the half year performance and revenue will be broadly in line with the exception of Herley which management appears to have allowed to be impacted by cost overruns on development contracts. Although some recovery is expected in the second half and the order book at the end of May was strong it is expected that the problems at Herley will result in full year operating profit being reduced by £4m to £6m. The new CEO says he is excited by what he has seen presumably referring to the fact that the brakes have been taken off US defence spending, a matter which outside his and the company’s control.
IWG plc IWG There is not mny sign of excitement at IWG where group operating profit for 2018 is expected to be £15. to £20m. below management expectations. The UK business is not performing as management was expecting despite strong trends in global sales activity. In order to strengthen its position IWG proposes to increase new space by 45% which as is usual in these circumstances, will bring with it extra short term losses
1pm plc OPM Results for the year are expected to show record year on year increases in revenue and profits. Revenue has risen by 0ver 75% of which more than 30% was organic and basic earnings per share rose by more than 20%. The CEO claims that the figures illustrate the success of the company’ buy and build strategy over the past three years during which it has completed seven acquisitions which has
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Pipelines Are In Growth Channels & Lapped Prior Year Pipeline Fill
Whitbread plc WBT places such emphasis on its various pipelines new and old that one has to wonder which business it is in, hotels or oil and gas. Verbiage in its interim report has not however stopped it from having a good first half. On a statutory basis, profit before tax for the six months to the 31st August rose by 19.9% and basic earnings per share by 23.6%Revenue growth was strong at 7.4% and Premier Inn and Costa are both gaining market share. In the UK over 2,000 new rooms have been 0pened and Direct bookings now account for 95% of the total which is not good news for the likes of booking.com.
As for those pipelines, in Germany it has accelerated new hotel pipelines and achieved nine secured pipeline hotels as well as strengthening a new Costa Store pipeline. The focus is on growth channels which are of course much better than straightforward ordinary growth without the channels.
Bunzl plc BNZL Since the 30th June revenue at constant exchange rates has grown by 11% and underlying growth has improved by between 5 and 6%. Growth through acquisition has also continued as an important part of the company’s strategy and for which it has an active pipeline.
GB Group GBG traded strongly in the half year to the 30th September with revenue rising by 40%, equal to 17% on n organic basis. An adjusted operating profit of £10m. is expected, which will be an increase of over 90% on last year.
Shoe Zone plc SHOE Despite the continuation of foreign exchange impacts continuing into the second half, full year profit before tax should be broadly in line with expectations. Revenue in the second half fell slightly due to the planned closure of loss making stores. The Big Box format as proved successful with six opened during the year and a further 10 planned.
Distil plc DIS Lapped prior year pipeline fill, with strong year on year growth in the six months to 30th September., which saw volume rise by 41.3% and gross profit by 22.1%.Operating losses fell by 68.1% to £22,000.
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Fast start to the year for Whitbread
by Ian Pollard
Whitbread WTB – Management reports a good start to the year, with first quarter sales growth of 7.6%, in line with expectations. Premier Inn continued to win overall market share with strong sales growth of 9.2%, benefitting from a resilient hotel market and the contribution from the c.9,000 rooms opened over the last two years. Costa sales grew 8.7% with UK equity like for like growth of 1.1% and a good performance in the expanding travel and drive thru channels. Whitbread has a clear plan to deliver growth and remain on track to open c.4,200 hotel rooms, 230-250 Costa coffee shops and install c.1,250 Costa Express machines this year.
Hornby HRN – A dismal performance from a management team that needs to turn this company around, although CEO Steve Cooke claims “solid evidence of our delivery in phase one of our Turnaround Plan.” FY revenue of £47.4m (2016: £55.8m), loss before tax of £9.5m (2016: £13.5m loss). At least net cash at 31 March 2017: stood at £1.5m (2016: £7.2m net debt). Hornby claims the current financial year has started positively and it is are well placed to achieve the Board’s expectations for the year.
Wynnstay Group WYN – Interim results benefited from greater demand for agricultural inputs over the winter period but were affected by continued subdued trading at pet products business, Just for Pets. Revenue of £205.32m (2016: £193.24m) and adjusted profit before tax, before goodwill & investment impairment charges of £4.07m (2016: £4.08m). The interim dividend of 4.20p is an increase of 5%.
Lekoil Limited LEK – Reports continuous commercial production and cash flow generation at Otakikpo. The company says the 15m Shell offtake facility secured on Otakikpo production provides liquidity to complete Phase 1 development and ramp up production to 10,000 bopd by year end. The Honourable Minister of State, Petroleum Resources of Nigeria, granted consent to complete the transfer of the original 17.14% participating interest that LEKOIL acquired in OPL 310 in February 2013.
Berkeley Group Holdings BKG – FY profit before tax shot up an impressive 53% to £812.4m, with net asset value per share up 18.4% to £15.56. Management claimed it had delivered another strong performance in a fast-changing environment.
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Whitbread Raises Dividend by 6%
Whitbread plc WTB is increasing its full year dividend by 6% after another year of strong sales and growth. Revenue for the year to 2nd March rose by 8.2% and underlying profit before tax by 6.2%. On a like for like basis revenue at Premier Inns increased by 2.3% after achieving an occupancy rate of over 80%. 3816 rooms were added during the year. Costa grew by 2% on a like for like basis and opened 255 net new stores worldwide. However a tougher consumer environment is foreseen for 2017, although Premier Inns has made a good start to the new financial year and Costa has continued to see like for like sales growth.
Minds & Machines Group MMX saw an increase of 159% in gross profit for the year to the end of December, after growth of 100% in billings and 146% in revenue. Operating costs fell by 46%. EBITDA was transformed from a loss of $4.4m in 2015 to a positive $3m. There is still significant scope for revenue and billing improvements and the size of the Board was reduced from seven to four.
Elementis ELM enjoyed strong demand in most markets, exceeding that of the first quarter of 2016. Growth in Personal Care and in Energy was notably stronger than last year. for the remainder of the current year all 3 sectors are expected to produce growth in operating profits.
Telit Communications TCM has traded in line since the beginning of the year and is on course to meet expectations for double digit revenue growth for the full year.
Imaginatik plc IMTK claims good underlying progress for the year to the end of March, with flat revenues and bookings down some 25% from £4.7m to £3.6m. The strong dollar resulted in a foreign exchange loss of £0.23m and net of that. the adjusted loss after after tax will be basically in line with expectations at £0.55m. New business opportunities for 2017 are said to be strong.
EU Supply plc EUSP reduced its loss before interest and tax by 42% for the year to 31st December and actually moved into profit in the final quarter. New contrcts entered into in 2016 helped to establish a profitable platform for growth and generated a strong order book for the start of 2017