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Dr David Paul, MD of VectorVest discusses Sopheon (SPE), Triad Group (TRD), Defenx (DFX) & Morgan Sindall (MGNS) on TipTV
Dr. David Paul, MD at Vector Vest talks about VectorVest Edge Strategy, which involves screening shares for favourable technical and fundamental factors and buying them when the overall market is rising. Stocks discussed today include Sopheon (SPE), Triad Group (TRD), Defenx (DFX), Morgan Sindall (MGNS).
Buy Triad Group (TRD) says VectorVest – this IT minnow can be considered an undervalued share
Founded in 1988 in Godalming, Surrey, Triad Group Plc, (TRD.L) provides information technology (IT) and business consultancy, application development, and systems integration services in the UK. Its IT consulting services include architecture definition, development of IT strategies, feasibility studies and technology selection, requirements analysis and specification, and project and program management. The company also assists its clients with services, such as business case development, business process improvement, and change management. Its application development and systems integration services portfolio consists of bespoke development; solution implementation; databases and business intelligence; integration; and support, maintenance, and hosting services. The company serves financial services, public sector and not for profit, telecom, media, technology, transportation, and travel industries.
On April 6th 2017, TRD issued a post year-end update ahead of final results due in June. TRD said the business continued to develop satisfactorily since the announcement of the interims on 25th Nov 2016 and it was confident that further progress would be reported in June. In the absence of unforeseen circumstances, profit before tax for the year ended 31st March 2017 is expected to be around £1.5m vs. £863,000 in the previous year. At the interim stage, TRD reported a 16.4% increase in interim revenues to £14.83m, while EBITDA grew by 136.7% to £0.71m.
VectorVest stock analysis had flagged the latent potential in TRD in mid 2016, as the stock appreciated from 37p following a strong set of full year results. Today, TRD remains on the table of winners, with the VST-Vector (the master indicator for ranking every stock in the VectorVest database) recording a rating of 1.28 for TRD, which is very good on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. VST is computed from the square root of a weighted sum of the squares of Relative Value, Relative Safety, and Relative Timing. Additionally the Growth to P/E Ratio (GPE) – comparing earnings growth rate to P/E ratio – featured TRD on account of an operative GPE ratio of 13.43, which highlights the stock as undervalued. In particular the earnings potential over a window of three years into the future (RV) is excellent. TRD has continued to deliver steady growth from 37p, but even at the current 81p, it continues to trade well below the VectorVest valuation of 147p.
The chart of TRD.L is shown above with the VectorVest valuations plotted as the green line study above the price. Earnings per share (EPS) is plotted in the window below the price as the blue study. After a strong advance in 2016 the share has traded in a “Flag” like, five wave, continuation pattern during 2017. This is a very bullish pattern. TRD.L broke out of the pattern a few days ago and is now on a BUY recomendation on VectorVest. The technical target from the flag formation is similar to the VectorVest valuation and this would amount to a potential 50% plus move from this level.
Summary: On many levels, IT minnow TRD can be considered an undervalued share. A £12.5m market cap for a company with annual turnover expected in excess of £30m and forecast profits of £1.5m flags up an imminent upward re-rating. This view is backed up by key VectorVest indicators and a valuation of 147p vs. the current 81p. Buy.
Dr David Paul
April 13 2017
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Triad’s Strong Results Triple PBT
Triad Group TRD claims another strong set of results as half year profit before tax more than triples to 668 million, following on last years successful results. Revenue for the six months to the 30th September rose by16.4%, leading to profit after tax rising from 0.22m to 0.69m and basic earnings per share up from 1.42p to 4.57p. The order book continues to be strong. No dividend is to be paid at the interim stage. Since March the share price has risen from 21p to yesterdays 52p
Pennon Group PNN results for the half year to the 30th September are written only for those who have had the privilege of being initiated into the secrets of water speak. Thus, the company has “delivered 80 million of Totex savings since the beginning of K6” . Should one respond to that with an “excellent” or a “could do better”. Returning to English, revenue for the six months fell by 0.5% out of which they managed to screw a rise of 19.9% in profit before tax and an underlying rise in profit after tax of 14.7%. The interim dividend is increased by 6% pursuant to the company’s sector leading dividend policy of increasing dividends by by an annual 4% above RPI inflation to 2020.
Gresham House GHS turned last years first half loss of 0.5 million into a profit before tax of 3.2m for the six months to the end of September. About 15p per share is now available for return to shareholders, pursuant to the company’s policy of returning half of net profit on realised investment gains
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Fitbug Still Weak
Fitbug Holdings FITB Despite a disastrous 2015 Fitbug is still surviving with the aid of small loans for working capital and the energetic activities of its new CEO who recognises that the company had failed to deliver. Revenue in 2015 almost halved and losses soared from £3,761,000 to £6,303,000. First quarter sales in 2016 have shown a significant like for like increase, after robust remedial action by the CEO who believes that the company has a healthy future, with a defined growth strategy now in place. A potential equity fund raising is being considered
Triad Group TRD delivered further growth in revenue and profit in the year to 31st March with revenue up by 20% and profit before tax by 145% The company which provides consultancy services to central government and the private sector, has a strong order book and intends to maintain its expnasion and the quality of its services by increasing the number of permanent employees and strengthening top management.
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