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Dr David Paul, MD of VectorVest discusses Sopheon (SPE), Triad Group (TRD), Defenx (DFX) & Morgan Sindall (MGNS) on TipTV
Dr. David Paul, MD at Vector Vest talks about VectorVest Edge Strategy, which involves screening shares for favourable technical and fundamental factors and buying them when the overall market is rising. Stocks discussed today include Sopheon (SPE), Triad Group (TRD), Defenx (DFX), Morgan Sindall (MGNS).
Buy Triad Group (TRD) says VectorVest – this IT minnow can be considered an undervalued share
Founded in 1988 in Godalming, Surrey, Triad Group Plc, (TRD.L) provides information technology (IT) and business consultancy, application development, and systems integration services in the UK. Its IT consulting services include architecture definition, development of IT strategies, feasibility studies and technology selection, requirements analysis and specification, and project and program management. The company also assists its clients with services, such as business case development, business process improvement, and change management. Its application development and systems integration services portfolio consists of bespoke development; solution implementation; databases and business intelligence; integration; and support, maintenance, and hosting services. The company serves financial services, public sector and not for profit, telecom, media, technology, transportation, and travel industries.
On April 6th 2017, TRD issued a post year-end update ahead of final results due in June. TRD said the business continued to develop satisfactorily since the announcement of the interims on 25th Nov 2016 and it was confident that further progress would be reported in June. In the absence of unforeseen circumstances, profit before tax for the year ended 31st March 2017 is expected to be around £1.5m vs. £863,000 in the previous year. At the interim stage, TRD reported a 16.4% increase in interim revenues to £14.83m, while EBITDA grew by 136.7% to £0.71m.
VectorVest stock analysis had flagged the latent potential in TRD in mid 2016, as the stock appreciated from 37p following a strong set of full year results. Today, TRD remains on the table of winners, with the VST-Vector (the master indicator for ranking every stock in the VectorVest database) recording a rating of 1.28 for TRD, which is very good on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. VST is computed from the square root of a weighted sum of the squares of Relative Value, Relative Safety, and Relative Timing. Additionally the Growth to P/E Ratio (GPE) – comparing earnings growth rate to P/E ratio – featured TRD on account of an operative GPE ratio of 13.43, which highlights the stock as undervalued. In particular the earnings potential over a window of three years into the future (RV) is excellent. TRD has continued to deliver steady growth from 37p, but even at the current 81p, it continues to trade well below the VectorVest valuation of 147p.
The chart of TRD.L is shown above with the VectorVest valuations plotted as the green line study above the price. Earnings per share (EPS) is plotted in the window below the price as the blue study. After a strong advance in 2016 the share has traded in a “Flag” like, five wave, continuation pattern during 2017. This is a very bullish pattern. TRD.L broke out of the pattern a few days ago and is now on a BUY recomendation on VectorVest. The technical target from the flag formation is similar to the VectorVest valuation and this would amount to a potential 50% plus move from this level.
Summary: On many levels, IT minnow TRD can be considered an undervalued share. A £12.5m market cap for a company with annual turnover expected in excess of £30m and forecast profits of £1.5m flags up an imminent upward re-rating. This view is backed up by key VectorVest indicators and a valuation of 147p vs. the current 81p. Buy.
Dr David Paul
April 13 2017
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Quoted Micro 10 April 2017
NEX EXCHANGE
Social impact investment company Inqo Investments Ltd (INQO) has taken a stake in Uganda-based Four-One Financial Services Ltd, which manages the Mazima Voluntary Individual Retirement Benefits Scheme. The pension scheme is aimed a low income earners and Four-One provides marketing and administration services.
NQ Minerals (NQMI) has been regularly raising funds in the past few weeks. The latest placing raised nearly £126,000 at 7.3p a share. So far this year, NQ has raised nearly £900,000.
Malcolm Burne has increased his stake in Coinsilium Group Ltd (COIN) by 500,000 shares, taking his shareholding to 6.19%.
Kryptonite 1 (KR1) consolidated every 19 shares into one new share on 4 April.
AIM
StatPro (SOG) is acquiring UBS Delta, which provides risk and performance analysis services, for €13m (£11.1m) over three years. UBS Delta has 115 clients with 100 of these being new to StatPro. This provides a ready made customer base for the StatPro Revolution product. UBS Delta has annualised recurring revenues of £14.5m and the combined group will have £53m. This is a highly earnings enhancing deal. A full contribution in 2018 leads to an improvement in forecast earnings per share from 4.5p to 7.4p. Net debt will double to £20.2m by the end of 2017 and then start to come down through cash generated from operations.
Bushveld Minerals Ltd (BMN) has completed the purchase of a 78.8% stake in Strategic Minerals Corporation, which owns 75% of the company that owns Vametco Alloys in South Africa. Bushveld says that the $16.5m it has paid is less than the cost of setting up a greenfield mining operation. The deal is part of the strategy to develop a vertically integrated vanadium operation. Bushveld is acquiring a low cost, open pit mine and plant with an existing customer base. There are enough ore reserves to last for 24 years at current production levels, plus scope to increase these reserves. Vametco is also near to Bushveld’s Brits vanadium project. Bushveld has also agreed to work with Sinohydro Corporation on developing a 60MW coal powered plant and related transmission infrastructure in southern Madagascar. Sinohydro will pay for the bankable feasibility study and project implementation proposal in the next 12 months. Bushveld is also moving ahead with the acquisition of an interest in the Uis tin project in Namibia.
AdEPT Telecom (ADT) says that its figures for the year to March 2017 will be ahead of expectations. Revenues are expected to be 16% higher and EBITDA 26% ahead. Net debt of £15.8m is £1.3m lower than forecast. The total dividend will be increased by 19% to 7.75p a share.
Belvoir Lettings (BLV) grew its 2016 revenues by 43% to £9.94m, while pre-tax profit improved from £2.2m to £2.5m. Contributions from acquired letting networks helped the growth. Demand remains strong for rented property. The estate agency business continues to grow from a low base and there are plans to increase revenues from other services. The final dividend is unchanged at 3.4p a share.
Gatemore Capital Management has withdrawn its requisition for a general meeting to change the board at DX (Group) (DX.) following the announcement of the discussions for the merger with Menzies Distribution.
Staunton failed to secure 50% acceptances for its 300p a share bid for FIH Group (FIH). The level of acceptances was 34.74% but nearly two-thirds of those were related parties to Staunton, which itself already owned 2.34%. The bid has lapsed. Dolphin Fund Ltd is still waiting in the wings but has not made a firm offer.
TechFinancials Inc (TECH) returned to profit in 2016 but there remains uncertainty due to the loss of the company’s major customer. There are plans to widen the range of products offered in order to offset the loss and the impact of regulatory changes. There was $7.7m in the bank at the end of 2016 and since then a $3m dividend has been received from the DragonFinancials joint venture.
Gresham House Strategic (GHS) has revealed plans to pay a maiden dividend. The 15p a share final dividend will be combined with a share buy back programme. At the end of March 2017, there were £1.7m of realised gains and 50% of that is available for dividends and buy backs. The company has already bought 500 shares at 831p each.
BP Marsh (BPM) is selling its 29.9% stake in Trireme for £2.96m, compared with a book value of £2.53m. Trireme will also repay a loan of £2.16m.
Revenue recognition changes mean that Styles & Wood (STY) will report lower revenues for 2016 but pre-tax profit will be in line with expectations.
Botswana Diamonds (BOD) has discovered two kimberlite blows at the Frischgewaagt project in South Africa. This could mean that the kimberlite dyke system could widen, thereby providing higher volumes of kimberlite.
Tracsis (TRCS) is investing up to £1.3m in Vivacity Labs Ltd, which has developed machine learning software to help solve traffic and transport problems. Tracsis could use the technology to reduce the costs of processing video for its traffic and data services division. Tracsis will invest £1m to take a 23.3% stake and it has an option to acquire a further 4.8% for £300,000.
MAIN MARKET
IT firm Triad Group (TRD) says that its full year pre-tax profit will increase from £863,000 to around £1.5m. The majority of that improvement came in the first half but there was also profit growth in the second half.
World Trade Systems (WTS) says that its health foods subsidiary is planning to enter cooperation agreements with two companies that will help it to diversify its product range and extend its market in China. CHelac and WTS plan to collaborate on R&D to develop cosmetic products using the former’s collagen stimulating technology. Fine Japan is linking up with WTS as a way of increasing its business in China. WTS is heading towards the first decade of the suspension of trading in its shares.
SMALLCAP AWARDS 2017 NOMINATIONS
IPO of the Year
Accrol Holdings; Blue Prism Group; Franchise Brands; InnovaDerma
Company of the Year
DP Poland; Fulcrum Utility Services; Gear4Music; Harvest Minerals
Nex Exchange Company of the Year
Adnams plc; Capital for Colleagues plc; Chapeldown; Crossword Cybersecurity plc; Sandal plc
Social Stock Exchange Impact Company of the Year
Capital for Colleagues; Caretech; Impax Asset Management; Obtala
Executive Director of the Year
Stephen Moon, CEO, Science in Sports; Andrew Jacobs, CEO, Lok’nStore; Nick Jarmany, CEO, Quixant; Tim Mitchell, CEO, Sareum
Transaction of the Year
Amino Technologies; Keyword Studios (Synthesis Group); Marlowe ; SCISYS (Annova)
Analyst of the Year
Mike Allen – Zeus; Andrew Blain – Cenkos Securities; Eric Burns – WH Ireland; Simon Strong – Cenkos Securities
Journalist of the Year
Paul Scott – Stockopedia; Jamie Nimmo – Evening Standard; Simon Thompson – Investors Chronicle
Advisor of the Year
Cenkos Securities; FinnCap; Panmure Gordon; Shore Capital; Stockdale Securities; Zeus Capital
Fund Manager of the Year
Paul Jourdan – Amati Global; Simon Knott – MI Discretionary Trust; Paul Mumford – Cavendish; Giles Hargreave and Guy Feld – Marlborough Fund
Andrew Hore
Triad’s Strong Results Triple PBT
Triad Group TRD claims another strong set of results as half year profit before tax more than triples to 668 million, following on last years successful results. Revenue for the six months to the 30th September rose by16.4%, leading to profit after tax rising from 0.22m to 0.69m and basic earnings per share up from 1.42p to 4.57p. The order book continues to be strong. No dividend is to be paid at the interim stage. Since March the share price has risen from 21p to yesterdays 52p
Pennon Group PNN results for the half year to the 30th September are written only for those who have had the privilege of being initiated into the secrets of water speak. Thus, the company has “delivered 80 million of Totex savings since the beginning of K6” . Should one respond to that with an “excellent” or a “could do better”. Returning to English, revenue for the six months fell by 0.5% out of which they managed to screw a rise of 19.9% in profit before tax and an underlying rise in profit after tax of 14.7%. The interim dividend is increased by 6% pursuant to the company’s sector leading dividend policy of increasing dividends by by an annual 4% above RPI inflation to 2020.
Gresham House GHS turned last years first half loss of 0.5 million into a profit before tax of 3.2m for the six months to the end of September. About 15p per share is now available for return to shareholders, pursuant to the company’s policy of returning half of net profit on realised investment gains
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Fitbug Still Weak
Fitbug Holdings FITB Despite a disastrous 2015 Fitbug is still surviving with the aid of small loans for working capital and the energetic activities of its new CEO who recognises that the company had failed to deliver. Revenue in 2015 almost halved and losses soared from £3,761,000 to £6,303,000. First quarter sales in 2016 have shown a significant like for like increase, after robust remedial action by the CEO who believes that the company has a healthy future, with a defined growth strategy now in place. A potential equity fund raising is being considered
Triad Group TRD delivered further growth in revenue and profit in the year to 31st March with revenue up by 20% and profit before tax by 145% The company which provides consultancy services to central government and the private sector, has a strong order book and intends to maintain its expnasion and the quality of its services by increasing the number of permanent employees and strengthening top management.
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