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UK Investor Magazine Podcast- CEO Alan Green discusses Barratt Developments, BP, Deltic Energy and ECR Minerals

investorThe UK Investor Magazine was delighted to be joined by Alan Green for our weekly instalment of UK equities and discussion around key market themes.

We discuss:

  • Barratt Developments (LON:BDEV)
  • BP (LON:BP)
  • Deltic Energy (LON:DELT)
  • ECR Minerals (LON:ECR)

We start by looking at the UK economy and a Think Tank prediction a UK recession will now be avoided. The FTSE 100 has reached new all-time highs above 7,900 – we look at the future trajectory for London’s leading index. We also the FTSE 250 and AIM, and the correlation with certain UK economic data points.

After a torrid year for Barratt Developments shares in 2022, there was reason for optimism in this morning results after the homebuilder said they were encouraged by January sales figures. We delve into the numbers.

BP confirmed bumper earnings for 2022 yesterday, as expected. We look at Barclay’s £10 price target and run through their key metrics.

We finish with a look at Deltic Energy and ECR Minerals.

Listen- Barratt Developments, BP, and Deltic Energy with Alan Green – UK Investor Magazine

Ken Baksh – February 2023 Investment Monthly

FEBRUARY 2023 Market Report

Investment Review

Summary
During the one-month period to 31st January 2023, major equity markets, as measured by the aggregate FTSE All – World Index, rose moderately, by nearly 6%, in dollar terms, one of the best January performances in recent years. Chinese equities and related emerging markets, NASDAQ and Continental European indices led the advance. The UK and Japanese indices underperformed but still rose by 4% in local currencies. The VIX index fell, finishing the period at a level of 19.28.
Government Fixed Interest stocks also rose over the month. The UK 10-year gilt ended the month on a yield of 3.33% with corresponding yields of 3.64%, 2.29% and 0.49% in USA, Germany, and Japan respectively. Speculative and lower quality bonds, also, rose in price terms. Currency moves featured a weaker US dollar. Commodities were mixed on the month, the Chinese re-opening story prompting large moves in the industrial metals.
Monthly Review of Markets
Equities
Global Equities rose strongly in January, gaining over 5.98% in dollar terms, in aggregate, led by NASDAQ and China, and related. Amongst the major indices Japan and the UK lagged, though still each gaining over 4%. Reflecting the greater “risk on “mood the VIX index fell below 20 to a level of 19.28.
UK Sectors
Sector moves were mixed and quite large over the month, the difference between the best and worst FTA sub sectors near 20% over just one month. Travel and Leisure and retail stocks gained over 15% while non-life insurance, pharma and tobacco fell in absolute terms. Telecommunication and bank stocks were reasonably firm, partly on takeover rumours. The FTSE100 underperformed the All-Share Index for the first time in many months. By IA sectors, UK active unit trusts are matching benchmark indices, trackers etc, over the short one-month period, with small company funds about 1% behind. “Balanced” funds, by IA definitions, rose by about 3% to 3.5%, depending on the equity content.

Fixed Interest
Major global government bonds rose 2.2% in price terms over January, the UK 10-year yield for instance finishing the month at a yield of 3.33%. Other ten-year government bond yields showed closing month yields 3.52%, 2.29% and 0.49% for US, German and Japanese debt respectively. See the Bloomberg graph below to compare the “January “bond performances over the last 30 years UK corporate bonds also rose, outperforming gilts, and more speculative debt also finished the month on lower yields.
Check my recommendations in preference shares, selected corporate bonds, fixed interest ETF’s , zero-coupons, speculative high yield etc. A list of my top ideas from over 10 different asset classes is also available to subscribers.

Foreign Exchange
A stronger pound and weaker US Dollar were the main moves, where cable (£/$), for instance, rose by 2.3%The Chinese Renminbi strengthened by 2.8% against the greenback. The Japanese Yen initially showed appreciation as a follow through from December’s yield control mechanism tweak, but more nuanced Bank of Tokyo statements during the month, reversed some of the gain. Interestingly,adjusted for FX moves,UK,Japan and USA all rose by between 3% and 4% on the month.

Commodities
Industrial metals copper, aluminium and iron ore showed the largest monthly move, while natural gas and several soft commodities declined in actual terms. Gold rose modestly but other PGM’s showed little monthly change.

News
Over the recent month, there have been few major changes to formal aggregate economic growth projections, with most commentators pointing to the “management” of the US slowdown, nature and timing of the Chinese re-opening and the Russia/Ukraine conflict as being key determinants of forward-looking estimates. At regional level however, more optimism is apparent in Continental Europe.
At the same time, key data inflation indicators (headline rates, factory gate and commodity prices, shipping rates,) suggest that headline price growth is set to slow in coming months, although labour compensation developments must be watched carefully.
US
Recently announced inflation indicators showed December headline CPI of 6.5%, lower than estimates. The November PCE,the Fed’s preferred inflation metric rose at an annualised rate of 5.5% still over double the Fed target. Fourth quarter preliminary GDP growth of 2.9% (3.2% in third quarter), annualised, while higher than estimates, concealed a slower consumers’ expenditure. This relative weakness has also been backed up by consumer sentiment indicators, retail sales, housing activity, construction figures and the Empire States Survey. The Fed’s own forecasts expect GDP growth of 0.5% for 2023, and core PCE growth of 4.8% and 3.5% respectively for 2022 and 2023.The employment situation remains relatively resilient overall, despite the headline grabbing news of cutbacks in the technology sector.
At its final 2023 meeting on 14th December, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark policy rate by 50 basis points and signalled its intention to keep squeezing the economy next year as central banks on both sides of the Atlantic enter a new phase in the battle against inflation. The new target range is 4.25% to 4.5%. Latest Fed projections below. At this time of writing we are waiting for the latest Fed move, probably 25bp increase, and the accompanying statement.

There is growing concern (again) that the US government may hit its ceiling for debt issuance this summer and spark speculation about a looming default. This “ritual” has of course been played out many times in the past, but coming this year, when the Central Bank is trying to reduce its balance sheet, there could be reasons to expect bouts of bond market volatility over coming months.

EUROPE
The European Central Bank raised interest rates by half a percentage point on December 16th taking the deposit rate to 2%, while also warning that inflation would remain above 2% for a considerable time meaning it would have to keep up rate hikes. The simultaneous announcement that the ECB would start QT from March reinforced the more “hawkish” message from the meeting. In a more detailed presentation than previous meetings, Christine Lagarde differentiated US inflation more driven by an overheating economy and tight labour market, and the ECB price levels, more driven by soaring energy and food costs.
European GDP growth estimates have, however, stabilised over the recent period, and indeed one or two sub-country third/fourth quarter releases have been marginally above expectations e.g German 2022 GDP growth of 1.9% and various more recent indictors such as PMI confidence readings and the ZEW survey, in Germany. Warmer than expected weather, government consumer and business support and resurgent Chinese demand often being cited as the main reasons.
Current ECB staff projections foresee economic growth of 3.4% for calendar 2022 and a “shallow and short recession” over the current period., taking the likely full year 2023 figure to around +0.5%. Inflation and fuel shortages remain key determinants. Some independent economic forecasters are now attaching a non-insignificant chance that Europe may avoid a recession.
December Eurozone inflation, of 9.2% (core 5.0%) was lower than expected. At the ECB meeting (above) 2023 inflation projections were raised to 6.3%

ASIA excl JAPAN
The GDP figures, shown below (source: CLSA, CEIC) show 2022 and 2023 growth projections for the Asia excl Japan region. Growth in 2023 is likely to slow slightly amid weakening domestic and external demand after 2022, the fastest since 2012, but overall, the situation still compares favourably by international comparison The reasons include a “better” Covid experience, selective commodity exposure, tourism, continued FDI Investment (especially China related) and better initial fiscal situations (compared with late 90’s for example) and limited direct connections with the Russia/Ukraine situation. The forecasts do not assume a total easing of Chinese covid rules.ASEAN,which includes Indonesia,Malaysia,Philippines,Singapre,Thailand and Vietnam expect aggregate economic growth of 4% for 2023.
Headline inflation of around 5% currently (core 3%) also compares favourably and is expected to drop to nearer 4% by end 2023 led by commodity disinflation.
CHINA
The 5.5% official GDP growth target for 2022 was predictably missed, the actual figure emerging at around 3%. Official historic data showed weakening trends in consumer spending, fixed asset investment and construction activity while more recent (December)t “live” tracking data e.g., mobility, cement production and electricity use also showed subdued economic activity. In addition, very weak trade data was released mid-December. The major historic negative issues of a very restrictive anti-Covid policy and major disruption within the property market have now been supplemented by increasing US restrictions on the production/export of certain key electronic products.

At the time of writing however, a property “rescue” package has been implemented, while on the Covid front, various relaxation measures are taking place to alleviate some of the issues above. The removal of the quarantine requirement for inbound travellers from January 8th signalled the end of the zero-Covid system that transformed China’s relationship with the outside world. Independent medical statistics and anecdotal evidence (crematorium activity,chrysanthemum sales!) show a rapid increase in Covid cases and deaths, probably exaggerated by the Chinese New Year, but a positive economic momentum is starting to build. First manifestations are starting to appear in Chinese travel and leisure statistics while a manufacturing revival will take much longer, especially in the face of slowing US demand.
At a recent cabinet meeting, premier Li Keqiang vowed to make consumption(currently only about 40% of GDP) the “driving force” of the economy, unleashing some of the savings amassed during the Covid years.

JAPAN
The Japanese economy contracted 1.2% on an annualized basis during the third quarter of 2022, missing forecasts of 1.1% growth, and considerably weaker than the 4.6% expansion recorded during the second quarter. This was the first down quarter of the year reflecting weak domestic consumption, a slowdown in business investment and an acceleration in imports. Estimates for the full year seem to fall mainly within the 1.5%-2.0% band. Inflation, while still well below international peers, rose by 4.0% in December, the highest in 41 years, driven by currency weakness. Headline CPI is expected to remain around this level in coming months through a combination of import prices and elevated consumer expectations. Wage developments should be watched carefully over coming months and although the Fast Retailing (UNIQLO) 40% increased wage offer was a one-off, there will be focus on the upcoming spring labour negotiations which could have large implications for inflation, interest rates and consumer expenditure. The Bank of Japan changed its yield control policy towards the end of December surprising many investors and causing immediate drops in bond prices and gain in the Japanese Yen. Although denied by the BOJ,there is growing speculation that Japan may ease back on its ultra-loose monetary policy in spring 2023 when the BoJ leadership changes.

.

UNITED KINGDOM
Within the UK, live activity data (e.g January Gfk data) continues to show a weaker overall trend, especially within the services sector. According to this survey, released mid-January, covering the mid-month period, consumer confidence remains very low (near a 50 year low), amid the cost-of-living crisis. This followed the publication of figures showing a drop in total 2022 retails sales of over 6%. Unemployment, however, is still at a relatively low level.
According to ONS statistics, GDP fell by 0.3% between the second and third quarters, slightly more than expected, and leaving the economy 0.8% below the “pre pandemic” level. The “increase” of 0.1% in the monthly November figure may be partly due to the “World Cup” effect. The saving ratio was 1.8% during the quarter, and banks report increases in credit card borrowing.

Inflation rose at 10.5% in December a slight improvement on the November figure, with core inflation at 6.5%. Latest earning growth around 6.5% is still a concern for BoE policy makers.
The PSBR is still hovering near all-time records, with the 2022/2023 figure expected to be about £50 billion higher than the 2021/2022 figure, already a record high.
Despite some relief with the recent energy price package, until April at least, (but not other utilities-see below), shop price inflation, greater Council Tax “freedom”, upward interest/mortgage rate pressure, falling house prices, accelerating rents, insolvencies/evictions, legacy Brexit issues and strike activity, will continue to be headwinds and the outlook for economic growth over coming quarters is highly uncertain. The Bank of England expects recessionary conditions to last for a few quarters though a recent Andrew Bailey statement hinted at a less severe slowdown than forecast around the time of the ill-fated mini Budget.

Experts at consultancy EY-Parthenon, insolvency specialist Begbies Traynor and, more recently, data from Insolvency Services to December 2022 all point to a huge increase in the number of distressed companies, predominantly in the small and medium size company area. While consumer facing sectors continued to be most affected EY said that “stress” was deepening across all sectors.
Monetary policy has tightened from a 0.1% interest rate in December last year to the current level of 3.5% warning that further hikes are likely. Markets are expecting rates to be above 4.0% by mid-2023.One particularly worrying development is the number of fixed rate mortgages that must be renegotiated over next quarters at much higher rates.

Looking Forward
Given the scope for geo-political, economic uncertainty from known factors summarized above plus the “black swan” allowance for unknown developments, plus the valuation risks, more prominent in certain asset classes than others, the first message for 2023, should be diversification, and the second should clearly be scaling your positions according to your risk profile.

scaling your positions according to your risk profile.
KEN’S TEN-2023
• Keep an overweight position in renewable/infrastructure.
• Favour value over growth generally-trade has further to run.
• Stay neutral/overweight in UK equities relative to your benchmark (page15).
• Overweight Far East,including China,Japan and other Asia (pages 16-19).
• Start switching large cap to small cap-valuation/performance.
13
• Start diversifying away from strong dollar.
• Overweight uranium relative to your commodity benchmark (page 21).
• Amongst UK sectors overweight telecom, health equipment, defence, tobacco and energy (pages 13-14),”not too ESG friendly,I am afraid”.
• Amongst UK sectors underweight luxury, motor related, most capital goods, consumer brands and food retail (pages 13-14).
• Within UK Fixed Interest prefer corporate bonds, preference shares, and zeroes to conventional gilts (page 21)-start rebuilding some fixed interest exposure, especially for cautious and balanced risk profiles.

For equities generally, the two medium term key questions will be when rising interest rates eventually cause equity derating/fund flow switches, government, corporate and household problems, and how the rate of corporate earnings growth develops after the initial snapback. Going forward, withdrawal of certain pandemic supports, uncertain consumer and corporate behaviour and cost pressures are likely to lead to great variations by sector and individual company. Investors will need to pay greater than usual attention to the end 2022 figures and accompanying forward looking statements.

 

Market Arithmetic

UK Equities continue to remain a relative overweight in my view, based on several conventional investment metrics (see above), longer term underperformance since the Brexit vote, style preference (value overgrowth) and international resource exposure although be aware of the numerous domestic headwinds I have highlighted above.
Value should be favoured over growth, and the FTSE 100 favoured over the FT All-Share. Apart from the style drift, remember that the non-sterling element of leading FTSE 100 companies and sectors is relatively high

Overweight
By sector, Oil and Mining equities continue to benefit from above average yields, strong balance sheets, dollar exposure and secular demand e.g copper,lithium, cobalt for electronics, construction, electric vehicles etc. Current moves regarding Chinese re-opening the economy would be another positive for this sector.
Remain overweight in pharmaceuticals and health equipment, expect more corporate activity
Telecom-moving to overweight this area after many years of disappointment. Valuations are attractive, many tariffs have an element of index linking, windfall tax risk is low and sector consolidation is increasing.
Defence-a relatively small stock market sector in UK terms but increased global defence spending, negative PMI correlation, high barriers to entry and corporate activity will continue to lift this specialist area.
Tobacco-ESG factors aside, there is undoubted value in this sector (both major UK stocks yield around 7%). Negative correlation with PMI’s and emerging market volume growth still strong.
Banks may enjoy some relative strength from rising interest rates but continue to monitor the recession/loan growth and default risks. These mixed trends were very evident in the recent third quarter figures. Preference Shares as well as ordinary shares have attractions in this area.

Underweight
Utilities- underweight in non-renewable utility stocks which may suffer from consumer and government pressures, and no longer trade on yield premia, especially against the backdrop of higher gilt yields. Infrastructure may fare better than distribution.
Housebuilders and real estate-expect depressed activity and remember that the rising interest rates have not yet been fully factored into bricks and mortar property yields. Industry data and anecdotal news from both housebuilders and REIT’s suggest further weakness to come.
Retailers are in general suffering from a combination of falling sales and rising costs and clear trends in consumers “trading down” are apparent. Anecdotal evidence shows a clear switch in consumer spending away from discretionary items such as electronics, furniture and certain clothing items. Certain on-line operations e.g Asos additionally are suffering from an element of post-Covid comparison. Food retailers are additionally facing stiff competition from discount “disruptors”. The British Retail Consortium expects another tough year for the sector looking for sales growth of just 2.3% to 3.5% i.e., volume declines.Share price performance over January has been very mixed.

Luxury Goods-Currently highly rated in stock market terms but could be vulnerable, in recessionary conditions and seem to have a strong correlation with property prices, which are expected to decline. However, renewed Chinese interest may help sector.
Domestic Breweries/pubs etc are having a hard time with stalling consumer’s expenditure, supermarket competition and rapidly rising costs.
In general, extra due diligence at stock level more generally will be required as I expect a growing number of profit warnings and downbeat forward looking statements.
However, takeover activity is also clearly increasing with, for example, private equity snapping up UK-listed companies at the fastest pace for more than twenty years. Foreign takeover, stake building is also increasing, current weak sterling being a factor, with Vodafone under scrutiny by a French (who already have BT interest!) investor. Biffa (waste management),MicroFocus(technology),Aveva(software) and RPS(professional services) have all succumbed to foreign takeovers in recent months, much by “strong dollar” American or Canadian organizations.

JAPANESE EQUITIES also remain an overweight in my view, although my recent comment re hedging may “nuanced “now following the extreme currency weakness and surprise intervention/policy change. The prospective price/book ratio of 1.2 is attracting interest of corporate and private equity buyers, while the prospective yield of 2.7% is above the world average and compares very favourably with USA (1.7%). Corporate governance is rapidly improving with diverse boards, reduction of cross holding, higher dividends etc. There are clear signs that inward investment attracted by the pro-growth, pro-deregulation agenda and relatively low costs (average Japanese annual wage $30000 compared with $75000 USA) is increasing. The political agenda is likely to include a more active defence policy,and a shift in income distribution more in favour of middle-class households. Private equity stake building interest in Toshiba and growing activity in the property sector (discount on a discount in a cheap currency) demonstrate the search for value in Japan. Investors may wish to remove currency hedges.
On a valuation basis (see table above) the forward market PE multiple of 11.9 is at a considerable discount to the world, and especially US average (16.7) and certain Japanese investment trusts yield more than UK peers.

EMERGING MARKETS– Very difficult to adopt a “blanket” approach to the region even in “normal times”, but especially difficult now, with so many different COVID, commodity, sectoral mix, debt, geo-political and increasingly natural disaster variables. See chart below The IMF recently warned that several emerging nations could disproportionately suffer from a combination of COVID and adverse reaction to “tapering” by developed counties e.g., FX/Interest rate pressures. Six countries have already defaulted during the pandemic, and the IMF is currently in various stages of bail-out discussions with Pakistan,Argentina,Zambia,Sri Lanka,Ghana,Tunisia and Egypt.

Within the emerging/frontier universe I continue to have a relatively positive view on Asia. The economic fundamentals were discussed on page 16 above, and the forward-looking multiples and dividend growth metrics appear relatively attractive in a global context. Any move by China to open more fully after their severe Covid lockdown, would of course additionally help. Exposure to the entire area can be achieved through several ETF’s and also investment trusts currently on discounts.
If a country-by-country approach is adopted, I have a longer-term positive view on Vietnam
where, the nation is supported by positive demographics, with a population of near 100 million, an emerging middle class, and a recipient of strong foreign direct investment. Qualconn,an Apple supplier, Intel(semi-conductors),Lego and Samsung(mobile phone plant) have all recently invested in new capacity in the country. Other big names moving chunks of production from China to Vietnam include Dell and HP (laptops), Google(phones)and Microsoft (Games Consoles) The economy is expected to grow at around 6.5% this year (7.7% Q2 2022) and approximately 6% in 2023 while current inflation is running at about 3.5%. One more rate hike of 50bp towards the end of the first quarter should mark the end of the tightening cycle. On a relatively low prospective PE based on forecast earnings growth over 20%, Vietnamese equities appear good value.
India, although quite highly rated and a major oil importer, warrants some inclusion in a diversified portfolio although recent corporate scandals(Adani?) require watching. Indonesia, the last of my current Asian ideas benefits from a commodity boom, strong domestic market, low debt, relatively stable currency, forecast 5% GDP growth and 5% inflation.

Caution is required in many South American markets with poor COVID-19 situations, deteriorating fiscal balances, weak investment, low productivity (see below) and governments in a state of transitioning e.g Brazil. However, some stock market valuations currently appear interesting in the region, which, so far, has been relatively unaffected by events in Ukraine. Commodity exposure, deglobalization beneficiary, valuation and recovery from a very low-level account for some year-to-date stock market relative out- performance. Many of these countries also raised interest rates at an earlier stage, allowing relative currency strength, compared with say the Euro,Yen or Sterling.

COMMODITIES– Gold spiked to over $2000 in March 2023, a recent high, when Russia invaded Ukraine, and although currently staging a modest rebound is still only $1924. Central Banks have been aggressively topping up their holdings during 2022.The longer-term prospects for more cyclical plays, however, continue to look brighter. Increased renewable initiatives, greater infrastructure spending as well as general growth, especially from Asia, are likely to keep selected commodities in demand at the same time as certain supply constraints (weather, labour and equipment shortages, Covid, transport) are biting. Current relaxation of the Chinese Covid policy, has certainly provided a boost to copper, aluminium and iron ore.
• Wheat and other grain prices have fallen from the levels reached following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but the current grain shipment complications, planting/harvesting schedules within the region and extreme global meteorological conditions are expected to lead to further price volatility. If the conflict is prolonged it will affect millions of people living in such places as Egypt, Libya, Lebanon Tunisia, Morocco, Pakistan and Indonesia that could have political consequences. There has been renewed interest in agricultural funds as well as the soft commodities themselves.
• URANIUM-I remain positive on the outlook for nuclear energy (stable base load,carbon-friendly,government U-turns,high energy output) while being aware of some of the well know issues(time, cost and waste disposal).Uranium is expected to experience a material market deficit over the next few years (estimates range between 10% and 30% of global demand).Nearly half of current world mined supply comes from Kazakhstan/Russia. The current price of 50 cents per pound could easily rise to 60c to 70c,as a result of geopolitical tension and a sharply rising cost curve. Apart from capital good companies exposed to the reactor construction/maintenance, I strongly recommend some exposure to my favoured investment trust.

UK FIXED INTEREST-selective exposure now recommended, especially for cautious/balanced risk mandates.

The graph below plots the progress of the UK 10 year gilt yield, which is at 3.33% at the time of writing. The two key things to note are firstly, the extremely low yields prevailing, just a year ago, partly reflecting a prolonged QE programme, and secondly the “panic” level reached at the end of September as domestic and international investors briefly took flight at the prospect of the short-lived Truss/Kwarteng mini budget proposals. Translating this into price terms, the I share all gilt index fell over 35% from the beginning of the year to late September before bouncing about 13% to current levels. This is huge volatility for an asset class often regarded as haven quality!
Having been negative on gilts for several years, I am now recommending gradually re-introducing selected fixed interest stocks to balanced portfolios, especially for cautious and balanced risk mandates.
Gilts themselves will have to contend with huge supply issues over coming quarters. While not falling as much as gilts and having completely different supply/demand dynamics, selected preference shares also fell to reach yield levels of approximately 7%, while good quality corporate bonds now offer yields around 6%. For the more adventurous, annual income yields around 10% and the prospect of capital gains are also also offered on more speculative grades.

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE remains a longer-term theme, and will be built into the many infrastructure initiatives, being pursued by Europe, USA, and Asia. The Russia/Ukraine conflict is accelerating the debate, and hopefully the action. There are several infrastructure/renewable investment vehicles which still appear attractive, in my view, combining well above average yields and low market correlation with low premium to asset value. The recent volatility in natural gas prices has highlighted both risks and opportunities in the production and storage of energy from alternative sources. My favoured vehicles {solar,wind,storage and infrastructure) in the UK investment trust space have delivered capital returns of approx. 10% and additional dividend income of between 5% to7% over 2022 and are expected to continue to deliver healthy total returns.

COMMERCIAL PROPERTY-
The MSCI/IPD Property Index showed a further fall in the total return across all properties in December, the decline of 3.3%), taking the full year 2022 decline to 10.1% (capital –14.2%, Income +4.7%). The monthly decline which started in July has affected all sub-sectors with industrial properties faring the worst over the full year. Rental growth however has been positive at with a 3.2% annualized gain in December taking the full year growth to 4.2% Several analysts are down grading their estimates for the sector following the rapid move in UK longer and shorter-term interest rates. Property asset valuations take time to materialise where there is a lag between balance sheet date and results publication in the listed area. Live traded property corporate bonds, however, have already moved sharply lower.
Quoted property giants British Land and Land Securities both reported deteriorating conditions writing their third quarter statements, expecting further valuation declines following rising yields.

Full asset allocation and stock selection ideas if needed for ISA/dealing accounts, pensions. Ideas for a ten stock FTSE portfolio. Stock/pooled fund lists for income, cautious or growth portfolios are available. Hedging ideas, and a list of shorter-term low risk/ high risk ideas can also be purchased.
I also undertake bespoke portfolio construction/restructuring and analysis of legacy portfolios.
Independence from any product provider and transparent charging structure
Feel free to contact regarding any investment project.
Good luck with performance!
Ken Baksh Bsc,Fellow (UK Society of Investment Professionals)
kenbaksh@btopenworld.com

1st February ,2023
Important Note: This article is not an investment recommendation and should not be relied upon when making investment decisions – investors should conduct their own comprehensive research. Please read the disclaimer.
Disclaimer: Opinions expressed herein by the author are not an investment recommendation and are not meant to be relied upon in investment decisions. The author is not acting in an investment, tax, legal or any other advisory capacity. This is not an investment research report. The author’s opinions expressed herein address only select aspects of potential investment in securities of the companies mentioned and cannot be a substitute for comprehensive investment analysis. Any analysis presented herein is illustrative in nature, limited in scope, based on an incomplete set of information, and has limitations to its accuracy. The author recommends that potential and existing investors conduct thorough investment research of their own, including detailed review of the companies’ regulatory filings, and consult a qualified investment advisor. The information upon which this material is based was obtained from sources believed to be reliable but has not been independently verified. Therefore, the author cannot guarantee its accuracy. Any opinions or estimates constitute the author’s best judgment as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice.The author may hold positions in any of the securities mentioned
The author explicitly disclaims any liability that may arise from the use of this material.

 

Markets and Stocks January 2023 – Doc Holliday talks to Alan Green

Markets and Stocks January 2023 – Doc Holliday talks to Alan Green. We look at Doc’s new Twitter Spaces cast, before turning to stocks:

04:00 Avacta #AVCT | 06:00 Hvivo #HVO & Poolbeg Pharma #POLB | 08:15 – Longboat Energy #LBE / Energy stocks | 11:26 – Cadence Minerals #KDNC | 14:55 – Mining Companies | 17:40 – Argo Blockchain #ARB | 21:20 – Revolution Bars #RGB | 26:26 – Over the next few months | 29:30 – Harland & Wolff #HARL

ECR Minerals #ECR – Andrew Scott, Andrew Haythorpe & Adam Jones discuss Creswick, Blue Moon, Bailieston, Lolworth, Hurricane & plans for 2023

Andrew Scott, Andrew Haythorpe & Adam Jones discuss today’s developments at Creswick plus the latest developments from Blue Moon, Bailieston, Lolworth, Hurricane. At Creswick the team talk through how workings there produced several m oz of gold production over a century ago, and how the team are seeking out the primary sources. Updates on the latest license applications and approvals, before Adam talks through the latest from Lolworth and the pegmatites identified in the Gorge Creek area. Andrew Haythorpe says he was astonished by the amount of visible gold & lack of follow up -and with the abundance of mineralisation styles, early results are way in excess of what he’d hoped for. Onto Blue Moon, and the drill team are finishing off the last four holes, testing continuity of mineralisation some 200m to the west. Adam explains how the team are speeding up assays, they have located a local lab in Bendigo which can turn around assays in 10-14 days. Andrew Haythorpe then talks through the rationale behind the recent fund raise, and how the funding will enable ECR to maintain multiple aggressive drill campaigns, before moving onto the plans to get on the ground and establish drill pads etc at Hurricane in May, June next year. With the new drill rig undergoing commissioning in January, the team expect to deploy it during Q1, and Adam outlines drill plans for Q1, with Blue Moon expected to finish in February and then a push on Creswick on ECR’s own Brewing Lane property. Andrew Haythorpe concludes, stating there will be a steady flow of news in Q1 2023, and says that the Company has now built a great foundation for shareholders in 2022.

Power Metal Resources #POW – December interview with CEO Paul Johnson

Alan Green talks to CEO Paul Johnson. We cover the drilling campaign at the Molopo Farms Complex project in Botswana, before Paul covers recent developments at the Tati Gold project, also in Botswana. We then look at developments in Canada, both at the group’s Athabasca Uranium project and the new Lithium project acquisition, before we turn to the upcoming IPO’s including Golden Metal Resources and First Development Resources. Paul looks at what the Christmas period will hold for the POW team and the likely news flow over the Xmas period and into the new year.

ECR Minerals #ECR – Andrew Scott, Andrew Haythorpe & Adam Jones discuss Blue Moon & other projects

ECR’s Andrew Scott, Andrew Haythorpe & Adam Jones discuss today’s developments at Blue Moon & other projects. Andrew Haythorpe describes the consistent predictable grades across Blue Moon and says today’s hole assay is just another step in that direction. Adam then covers the drilling campaign, following the 2019 RC drilling campaign. The current hole is 150m to the west, and with holes 100-200m apart the results are promising, with bleaching on the core consistent with the structure. Currently three holes have been completed 3 holes, if mineralisation continues then “happy days”, a possible resource. Assays from the remaining holes should be back in early December, so. the company will announce next steps and next drill holes then. Plenty more to look forward to as well – Omeo hasn’t even been touched yet, plenty of blue sky potential, Hurricane mineralisation on surface, Lolworth assays pending from stream sediment and rock chips, field team back out there in a few days. All field samples now with the labs, looking like a good Christmas and strong start to 2023.

November 2022 Investment Review – Alan Green talks to Ken Baksh

Stocks covered: Whitbread #WTB, Frontier IP #FIPP, Enquest Bond #ENQ2 & Georgia Capital #CGEO

Investment Review

Summary

During the one-month period to 31stOctober 2022, major equity markets, as measured by the
aggregate FTSE All – World Index, rose moderately, reducing the year-to-date loss to 22%, in $
terms. Chinese equities, however, bucked this upward trend, falling over17% and taking the broad
emerging market indices with them. The VIX index fell, finishing the period at a level of 26.
Government Fixed Interest stocks mostly rose over the month, although the US 10 year yield rose
against the trend. The UK 10-year gilt ended the month on a yield of 3.51% (4.13% one month ago)
with corresponding yields of 4.03%, 2.14% and 0.25% in USA, Germany, and Japan respectively.
Speculative and lower quality bonds also mostly rose in price terms. Currency moves featured a
stronger pound and weaker Chinese Yuan. Commodities were mixed

News

Over the recent month, the IMF reduced its world economic growth forecasts again to 3.2% this year
and 2.7% in 2023, while raising inflation estimates.
The World Bank has speculated on the” possibility” of a global recession in 2023, with various
scenarios depending on the Central Bank’s determination at tackling inflation
US
Recent US Federal Reserve meetings and informal comments by Jerome Powell and other Fed
governors remain hawkish and several interest rate increases are expected over coming months.
At the September 21st meeting the Fed raised the benchmark rate by 75 bp, for the third time in a
row and signalled its intention to keep policy tight. A rate increase of 75bp is expected this week
Downward projections to economic growth, and upward moves to inflation forecasts were also
released.
Recently announced inflation indicators showed September headline CPI of 8.2%, higher than
estimates, while the core inflation rate rose by 6.6% led by services. First quarter negative GDP
growth followed by second quarter of -0.9% signals a “technical recession”, although
labour/employment trends still seem reasonably robust. Third quarter preliminary GDP growth of
2.6%, annualised, while higher than estimates concealed a weaker consumer component offset by a
strong trade balance. Recent consumer sentiment indicators (October flash composite PMI for
example), retail sales, housing activity, construction figures and the Empire States Survey back this
up, showing declining trends into September/October. Independent economic forecasts are now
expecting very low GDP growth for full year 2022 with the unemployment level rising to about 4.4%.
The Fed’s own forecasts expect GDP growth of 0.2% and 1.2%, and core PCE growth of 4.5% and
3.1% respectively for 2022 and 2023

Most recent polling shows that the Republicans hold an edge over the Democrats just over a week
before midterm elections that will decide control of the US legislative branch, with voters focussed
on high inflation and the risk of recession.

EUROPE

The European Central Bank raised interest rates by half a percentage point on July 22nd, and a
further 75bp in September also pledging to support surging borrowing costs from sparking a
eurozone debt crisis. The ECB raised interest rates by another 75bp, to their highest level since 2009,
on 27th October, pledging to continue increasing borrowing costs in the coming months to tackle
record inflation, despite a looming recession.
Co-ordinated moves to help mitigate the gas crisis, including windfall taxes and energy pricing
reforms are also being urgently discussed. First quarter 2022 GDP for the Eurozone showed a weaker
than expected trend especially in Sweden, Italy and Germany and more recent indicators show a
continuation of this trend, exacerbated by the Russia/Ukraine conflict, supply chain issues, and
rapidly increasing costs. The “flash” PMI figure for October, released on the24th October, fell to 47.1
the lowest since November 2020.A technical recession seems inevitable.
Current ECB staff projections foresee economic growth of 2.8% for 2022, a sharp reduction on the
previous forecast, and further downgrades could be likely in the wake of the ongoing Ukrainian
conflict and related gas shortages.
Octoberr Eurozone inflation, just released, of 10.70% was higher than expected. Political events
have included the election in Italy of Giorgia Meloni to the position of prime minister and head of a
three-party right-wing alliance(below). Strikes are growing in number and intensity across the
Continent. The gas shortage issue is exposing rifts in trying to formulate a common European policy.

ASIA excl JAPAN

Unlike other major economic zones there have been no major economic downgrades within this region, (maybe a lagged effect) but there are a wide range of possible outcomes depending on commodity exposure, tourism, debt, Chinese linkages, US dollar effects, etc. Recent FT analysis shows that in four of the six biggest countries in ASEAN (Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and Philippines), GDP is rising faster than inflation in contrast to the majority of the G10 countries. A sharp bounce back from the pandemic (Philippines), commodity exposure (Indonesian palm oil and coal), (Malaysian palm oil and rubber), and Thai (rubber) and shifting supply chains away from China (Apple iPads from Vietnam) are all factors behind the region’s resilience. The World Bank estimates that the Pacific ex China area could grow at 5.3% in 2022, higher than China,where GDP growth of nearer 3% seems likely for the current period.

CHINA

Chinese economic data over past months has cast strong doubts on the 5.5% official growth target for 2022, with some investment banks now forecasting below 3%. Official data shows weakening trends in consumer spending, fixed asset investment and construction activity while more recent “live” tracking data e.g., mobility, cement production and electricity use also showed subdued economic activity. Official data for the third quarter, just released shows growth of 3.9%. The American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai found that around a fifth of the 307 companies it surveyed were pulling back on investment as a result of the coronavirus measures.
Among the key takeaways from the 20th National Congress, just finished, were Xi’s plans to step up industrial policy with more fiscal support and subsidies, to achieve self-sufficiency, and the concentration of the state’s role in the economy. As expected Xi’s term, was extended by a further five years and in a big member shakout, loyal supporters were promoted to leading positions in all

major institutions. At the time of writing, rumours are emerging with reference to”setting up a committee to look at the possibility of reducing the strict ant-covid measures”…but early days!

JAPAN

After fourth quarter GDP 2021 growth of 5.4% annualised, led by more buoyant consumer spending and a tentative manufacturing recovery, the first quarter 2022 figure showed a decline of 1.0% annualised, somewhat higher than some estimates, then followed by 2.2% in Q2 2022, largely consumer driven. Estimates for the full year seem to fall mainly within the 1.5%-2.0% band. Inflation, while still well below international peers, rose by 3.0% in September, led by fuel and food and the weakening Yen. Fiscal policy remains loose, and the BOJ recently reaffirmed its yield control policy, while keeping key interest rates at -0.1%. However recent verbal and actual intervention (see below-one day trading) suggest that Yen weakness (on relative interest and divergent policy grounds), is no longer a one-way bet!
Late last week the Japanese government unveiled a $197 billion stimulus package to ease the impact on consumers of soaring commodity prices and a falling yen, while the BoJ stuck by its ultra-loose policy

UNITED KINGDOM

Within the UK, live activity data (e.g October Gfk data) continues to show a weaker overall trend, especially within the services sector. According to this survey, released late October, covering the period October3rd-13th consumer confidence remains very low, amid the cost-of-living crisis.The flash composite output index,a measure of activity in the private sector also dropped to a 21 month low in October. Other lagging “official final “data has also been uninspiring with August GDP registering a decline and September retail sales falling1.5%, especially big-ticket items. Sales volumes are approximately 10% below pre-pandemic levels. Unemployment, however, is still at a very low level, although recent official figures did show a tentative slowing in hiring intentions.

Inflation continues to rise, the September CPI and RPI readings (triple lock?) registering hikes of 10.1% and 12.6% respectively. Kantar recently released some figures showing 13.9% YoY food inflation in September
The PSBR was starting to deteriorate again, largely as a results of rapidly rising interest (index linked) payments and expectations of higher public sector pay and state pensions. The most recent “official” figure showed September PSNB at £20 billion, much larger than forecast and the second largest since monthly records began in 1993, according to the ONS.
The current account deficit for Q1 was the worst on record at 8.3% of GDP, another worrying sign. It will be interesting to see if sterling weakness since then has changed the aggregate figures.

Despite some relief with the recent energy price package, until April at least, (but not other utilities-see below) and budget related tax/NI cuts, shop price inflation, merchandise availability, upward interest/mortgage rate pressure, stalling house prices, accelerating rents, insolvencies/evictions, pension triple-lock suspension (22/23), legacy Brexit issues, strike activity, covid revival will continue to be headwinds and the outlook for economic growth over coming quarters is highly uncertain. Statistically, the UK could already be approaching a technical recession.
Experts at consultancy EY-Parthenon reported that company profit warnings had jumped from 51 to over 86 over the third quarter of 2022 citing increasing costs and overheads as the main reason, especially in consumer facing businesses. Another report from Begbies Traynor, Latest Red Flag Alert Report for Q3 2022 – 07:00:07 19 Oct 2022 – BEG News article | London Stock Exchange quoted that over 600,000 business were already in severe financial distress. Anecdotal evidence from reporting quoted companies (e.g Royal Mail, Saga, Boohoo, Next and Character Group) at the interim stage show a very mixed trend.
.
Monetary policy has tightened from a 0.1% interest rate in December last year to the 1.25% rate set in June and a further 50bp at the August, meeting, followed by 50bp in September, taking the benchmark rate to 2.25%. Markets were expecting rates to be above 3.5% by mid-2023, but following recent events and international pressure, the feeling is that the Bank of England will need to be more aggressive and figures of 5.0% for both shorter term rates and the 10-year Government bond yield are not totally unrealistic.

At the time of writing Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt are exploring tax increases and public spending cuts worth up to £50 billion a year and the Treasury Autumn Statement is currently scheduled for November 17th.The likely mixture of tax rises and spending cuts has been eased slightly by the very recent move in the gilts market, but “eye-wateringly difficult “decisions still have to be made in the words of the Prime Minister.

Monthly Review of Markets
Equities

Global Equities rose strongly over October (+5.5%) following the large September declines, reducing the year to date decline to 22.0% in dollar terms. The one major exception to this advance was China where equities fell over 17%, dragging the aggregate emerging market index down 2.4% as well. Continental European indices and American equities (excl technology) showed the largest monthly advances The VIX index fell over the month to an end October at a level of 26. The nine- month gain of 54% reflects the degree of risk aversion compared with the” relative calm” of last December (medical, geo-political and economic!).

UK Sectors

Sector moves were very mixed over the month although most ended in positive territory. The few losers included mining (underlying commodity prices), property (interest rates) and banking (bad debts and rumours of windfall taxes). On the other hand, oil and gas, travel, tobacco and industrial shares showed gains over 5%. The FTSE100 marginally underperformed the FTSE 100 outperform on the month but is still about 4% ahead of the broader index since the beginning of the year. By IA sectors, UK active unit trusts are underperforming benchmark indices, trackers etc, so far this year, with small company funds even more so. Income based funds, by contrast, are outperforming the averages. “Balanced” funds, by IA definitions, are falling by about 12% so far this year (Source: Trustnet October 29th).

Fixed Interest

Major global government bonds showed mixed trends throughout October, the UK 10-year yield for instance finishing the month at a yield of 3.51%. Other ten-year government bond prices showed closing month ten-year yields4.03%,2.14%,0.25% US, German and Japanese debt respectively. Of note was the bounce in UK gilts, following the mini-Budget volatility, while corporate bonds also bounced strongly, up approximately 5% on the month in price terms
Year to date, the composite gilt index has fallen approximately 24% marginally underperforming UK higher quality corporate bonds in price terms and more so in total return.
Check my recommendations in preference shares, selected corporate bonds, fixed interest ETF’s, zero-coupons, speculative high yield etc. A list of my top ideas from over 10 different asset classes is also available to subscribers.

Foreign Exchange

Currency moves featured a rebound in the pound following Government changes and scrapping most of the mini-Budget. Sterling climbed 3.1% and 5.9% against the US dollar and Japanese Yen respectively. Currency developments during October also included weakness in the Chinese Yuan following weaker than expected economic data.

Commodities

A mixed performance by commodities during October with weakness in Natural Gas and Palladium and strong gains in oil, and platinum. Iron ore remained volatile, largely on Chinese news. Year to date, uranium and the energy complex are strongly up in price terms while industrial metals copper, aluminium and iron have all shown price declines of over 20%. Gold has also dropped nearly 9% in dollar terms. At this this time of writing Turkey, Ukraine and the UN are trying to broker a deal to allow resumption of grain shipments from Ukraine after the sudden Russian withdrawal. In the short term, more volatility is expected in the area of soft commodities

Looking Forward

Major central banks have remained hawkish with reducing QE and accelerating the timing and extents of rate increases as the main objectives, especially where inflation control is the sole mandate. In a growing number of smaller economies where US contagion, politics, commodity exposure inflation/fx are also issues, several official increase rate increases have already taken effect. Japan, however, has continued to adopt stimulative measures, up to now.
Global Government Bonds, except for Japan, weakened significantly in price terms over recent months. Absolute yield levels, however, still do not look excessive when inflation, government supply and quantitative tightening are considered.
For equities, the two medium term key questions will be when rising interest rates eventually cause equity derating/fund flow switches, government, corporate and household problems, and how the rate of corporate earnings growth develops after the initial snapback. Going forward, withdrawal of certain pandemic supports, uncertain consumer and corporate behaviour and cost pressures are likely to lead to great variations by sector and individual company. The start of the third quarter reporting season is already producing several negative surprises e.g large American technology companies
.

Observations/Thoughts
ASSET ALLOCATION

As well as maintaining an overweight position in UK equities, it may be worth initiating or adding to Japanese positions within an international portfolio. The US market has fallen about 19% so far this year (NASDAQ -30%) but remains a relative underweight in my view. Margin pressure headwinds, political uncertainty and technology sector volatility must be balanced against the current stock market ratings. Continental European equities appear cheaply rated in aggregate, but great selectivity is required. Current Ukraine tensions have opened new opportunities within the emerging market space, but extreme caution warranted. Latin America and parts of Asia, for example, have enjoyed economic rebounds, revived tourism, some commodity exposure, and little negative Ukraine spill over and this has been reflected in some indices e.g Latin America.

Another major asset allocation decision would be to keep part of the conventional “fixed interest” portion in alternative income plays in the infrastructure, renewables, and specialist property areas. Many instruments in this area provide superior capital growth, income, and lower volatility than gilts for example. Recent stock market volatility has brought several renewable stocks back to attractive levels.
I am also adding selected preference shares to the “fixed interest” allocation, where annual yields of approximately 6% are currently available after the recent bounce in prices.

UK Equities continue to remain a relative overweight in my view, based on severalconventional investment metrics (see above), longer term underperformance since the Brexit vote, style preference (value overgrowth) and international resource exposure although be aware of the numerous domestic headwinds I have highlighted above.
Value should be favoured over growth, and the FTSE 100 favoured over the FT All-Share. Apart from the style drift, remember that the non sterling element of leading FTSE 100 companies and sectors is relatively high
By sector, Oil and Mining equities continue to benefit from above average yields, strong balance sheets, dollar exposure and secular demand e.g copper, cobalt for electronics, construction, electric vehicles etc.Any moves regarding Chinese re-opening the economy would be another positive for this sector

Remain overweight in pharmaceuticals and underweight in non-renewable utility stocks which may suffer from consumer and government pressures, and no longer trade on yield premia, especially against the backdrop of higher gilt yields.
Construction materials, especially cement will benefit from growing infrastructure/renewable initiatives.
Banks, may enjoy some relative strength from rising interest rates, but continue to monitor the recession/loan growth and default risks and windfall tax developments. These mixed trends were very evident in the recent third quarter figures. Preference Shares as well as ordinary shares have attractions in this area
Housebuilders and real estate-expect depressed activity and remember that the rising interest rates have not yet been fully factored into bricks and mortar property yields. Some property company corporate bonds however have shown some immediate weakness.

Retailers are in general suffering from a combination of falling sales and rising costs and clear trends in consumers “trading down” are apparent. Certain on-line operations e.g Asos additionally are suffering from an element of post-Covid comparison.
Domestic Breweries/pubs etc are having a hard time with stalling consumer’s expenditure, supermarket competition and rapidly rising costs.
Airlines may suffer as a result of large dollar costs, uncertain foreign travel outlook and often high debt levels
Extra due diligence at stock level more generally will be required as I expect a growing number of profit warnings and downbeat forward looking statements. See the EY and Begbies statements on page 7 above.

However, takeover activity is also clearly increasing with, for example, private equity snapping up UK-listed companies at the fastest pace for more than twenty years. Foreign takeover, stake building is also increasing, current weak sterling being a factor, with Vodafone under scrutiny by a French (who already have BT interest!) investor. Biffa (waste management),MicroFocus(technology),Aveva(software) and RPS(professional services) have all succumbed to foreign takeovers in recent months, much by “strong dollar” American or Canadian organizations.

Gilts

Gilts have seen significant rises in both yields and volatility over the last ten months, although well off the extremes seen around the time of the mini-Budget! Although it is still difficult to see value in conventional gilts now against the current inflation and debt/GDP ratios, and the supply expected over coming quarters, yield levels may start to look appealing to certain investors. Institutional asset/liability considerations may also encourage some equity to bond switching. Ten-year gilt yields of 3.51% do appear more attractive now against a current FTSE 100 yield of 3.89% than the 0.97% gilt yield at the beginning of the year! Be aware that the BoE is starting to wind down it’s gilt holdings as from November 1st.

JAPANESE EQUITIES

also remain an overweight in my view, although my recent comment re hedging may “nuanced “now following the extreme currency weakness and surprise intervention. Unlike most other major economies, Japan is expected to continue its easy money policy. Exporters have benefitted from the plunging Yen although higher input costs and more “off-shoring” also must be considered. The prospective price/book ratio of 1.10 is attracting interest of corporate and private equity buyers, while the prospective yield of 2.8% is above the world average and compares very favourably with USA (1.8%). Corporate governance is rapidly improving with diverse boards, reduction of cross holding, higher dividends etc. There are clear signs that inward investment attracted by the pro-growth, pro-deregulation agenda and relatively low costs (average Japanese annual wage $30000 compared with $75000 USA) is increasing. Private equity stake building interest in Toshiba and growing activity in the property sector (discount on a discount in a cheap currency) demonstrate the search for value in Japan. Investors may wish to adopt a partially rather than fully hedged FX position following recent developments
On a valuation basis (see table above) the forward PE multiple of 12.1 is at a considerable discount to the world, and especially US average (16.6)

EMERGING MARKETS

-Very difficult to adopt a “blanket” approach to the region even in “normal times”, but especially difficult now, with so many different COVID, commodity, sectoral mix, debt, geo-political and increasingly natural disaster variables. Interestingly the rush into Emerging Market assets, both bonds and equities, at the start of 2021 moderated through the year and into 2022 as many dramas have unfolded e. g South Africa, Turkey, Ukraine, Chinese regulation. This latter factor has special relevance to those using Emerging Market Benchmark Indices. The IMF recently warned that several emerging nations could disproportionately suffer from a combination of COVID and adverse reaction to “tapering” by developed counties e.g., FX/Interest rate pressures. Six countries have already defaulted during the pandemic, and the IMF is currently in various stages of bail-out discussions with Pakistan,Argentina,Zambia,Sri Lanka,Ghana,Tunisia and Egypt.
However, within the emerging space, I continue to have a relatively favourable longer term view on Asia, where relative COVID success, stable FX,inward investment, lower relative inflation and export mix help investor sentiment

Vietnam, for example, is supported by positive demographics, with a population of near 100 million, an emerging middle class, and a recipient of strong foreign direct investment. Qualconn,an Apple supplier, Intel(semi-conductors),Lego and Samsung(mobile phone plant) have all recently invested in new capacity in the country. Other big names moving chunks of production from China to Vietnam include Dell and HP(laptops),Google(phones)and Microsoft (Games Consoles) The economy is expected to grow at around 6.5% this year (7.7% Q2 2022) and current inflation is running at about 3.5%. On a relatively low prospective PE based on forecast earnings growth over 20%, Vietnamese equities appear good value. India, although quite highly rated and a major oil importer, warrants inclusion in a diversified portfolio, and is currently receiving some fund flows from “overweight” Chinese portfolios. Indonesia, the last of my current Asian ideas benefits from a commodity boom, strong domestic market, low debt, relatively stable currency, forecast 5% GDP growth and 5% inflation

Caution is required in many South American markets with poor COVID-19 situations, deteriorating fiscal balances and governments in a state of transition. However, some stock market valuations currently appear interesting in the region, which, so far, has been relatively unaffected by events in Ukraine. Commodity exposure, deglobalization beneficiary, valuation and recovery from a very low-level account for some year-to-date stock market relative out- performance. Many of these countries also raised interest rates at an earlier stage, allowing relative currency strength, compared with say the Euro,Yen or Sterling.At this time of writing Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva narrowly won the Brazilian election staging a dramatic comeback, although incumbent Bolsonaro might not easily concede defeat.
Certain areas within Central Europe are starting to receive more attention, mainly on valuation grounds, but the lingering Covid effects and indirect effects of the Russia/Ukraine invasion should be borne into account. Regarding the latter, a reduction/termination of Russian gas supply could have a serious recessionary impact in certain countries. Large refugee influxes e.g Poland are also starting to create budgetary/social issues.

Comments re great selectivity above also apply to emerging market debt. For the more adventurous fixed interest investor combinations of well above average yields (sometimes caused by pre-emptive moves last year), stable fiscal and FX situations and, diversified economic models could provide outperformance from carefully selected bonds.

COMMODITIES– Gold spiked to over $2000 in March, a recent high, when Russia invaded Ukraine, but has since fallen about 18%., although of course, remaining reasonably stable in many local currency terms (graph below). The longer-term prospects for more cyclical plays continue to look brighter. Increased renewable initiatives, greater infrastructure spending as well as general growth, especially from Asia, are likely to keep selected commodities in demand at the same time as certain supply constraints (weather, labour and equipment shortages, Covid, transport) are biting. Anecdotal evidence from reporting companies RTZ, BHP and Anglo American appear to suggest that the industry is enjoying a bumper time, and with disciplined capex programmes, extra dividends and share buy-backs are commonplace!. Current rumours of a cautious relaxation of the Chinese Covid policy, may provide a boost to base metals.

Wheat and other grain prices have fallen from the levels reached following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but the current grain shipment complications, planting/harvesting schedules within the region and extreme global meteorological conditions are expected to lead to further price volatility. If the conflict is prolonged it will affect millions of people living in such places as Egypt, Libya, Lebanon Tunisia, Morocco, Pakistan and Indonesia that could have political consequences. There has been renewed interest in agricultural funds as well as the soft commodities themselves.

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE remains a longer-term theme, and will be built into the many infrastructure initiatives, being pursued by Europe, USA, and Asia. The Russia/Ukraine conflict is accelerating the debate, and hopefully the action. There are several infrastructure/renewable investment vehicles which still appear attractive, in my view, combining well above average yields and low market correlation with low premium to asset value. The recent volatility in natural gas prices has highlighted both risks and opportunities in the production and storage of energy from alternative sources. However, increasing levels of due diligence are required, in committing new money to the area overall. Financial watchdogs across the world are sharpening their scrutiny of potential “greenwashing” in the investment industry on rising concerns that capital is being deployed on misleading claims.
• However, in the shorter term, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has precipitated a global energy crisis, that has forced countries, especially in Europe to look for ways to quickly wean themselves off Russian oil and gas, and reconsider timelines of commitments to cut the use of fossil fuels. At the time of writing, it seems highly likely that USA will increase oil and gas output, UK North Sea may see further investment and EU coal consumption could increase.

Another area currently in the ESG purist cross hairs is “nuclear”. Ignoring the fact that nuclear weapons have not been used in anger since 1945, and the fact that some deterrent is needed, (now?), where should the confused investor stand when it comes to nuclear power substituting coal power? Japan, UK and Germany are all studying proposals to revive their nuclear power capacities. I have some interesting “uranium play” ideas for those interested.

ALTERNATIVE ASSETS -this group, encompassing private equity, private debt, hedge funds, real estate, infrastructure, and natural resources is expected to continue growing both in actual and relative terms over coming years.
Traditional asset management groups are racing to expand offerings in alternative investments as they seek to boost profitability and head off competition from private equity groups (see graph below).

I have, for a while, recommended some exposure to this area maybe as part of the former “gilt allocation”. With strong caveats re liquidity, transparency, dealing process, I still adopt this stance, continuing to use the investment trust route. So far this year, gilts have declined approximately 24% while my favoured UK renewable closed-end funds have appreciated by around 6% in capital terms and delivered about 6% in annual income. Please contact me directly for specific ideas

COMMERCIAL PROPERTY-

Several analysts are down grading their estimates for the sector following the rapid move in UK longer and shorter-term interest rates. Property asset valuations take time to materialise where there is a lag between balance sheet date and results publication in the listed area. Live traded property corporate bonds, however, have already moved sharply lower.

Index provider MSCI reported that commercial property values fell 2.6% in September, the largest monthly fall since 2016, while CBRE reported that the value of transactions was down 16% for the third quarter of this year compared with the same period of 2021.

Full asset allocation and stock selection ideas if needed for ISA/dealing accounts, pensions. Ideas for a ten stock FTSE portfolio. Stock/pooled fund lists for income, cautious or growth portfolios are available. Hedging ideas, and a list of shorter-term low risk/ high risk ideas can also be purchased.
I also undertake bespoke portfolio construction/restructuring and analysis of legacy portfolios.
Independence from any product provider and transparent charging structure
Feel free to contact regarding any investment project.
Good luck with performance!

Ken Baksh Bsc,Fellow (UK Society of Investment Professionals)

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Important Note: This article is not an investment recommendation and should not be relied upon when making investment decisions – investors should conduct their own comprehensive research. Please read the disclaimer.
Disclaimer: Opinions expressed herein by the author are not an investment recommendation and are not meant to be relied upon in investment decisions. The author is not acting in an investment, tax, legal or any other advisory capacity. This is not an investment research report. The author’s opinions expressed herein address only select aspects of potential investment in securities of the companies mentioned and cannot be a substitute for comprehensive investment analysis. Any analysis presented herein is illustrative in nature, limited in scope, based on an incomplete set of information, and has limitations to its accuracy. The author recommends that potential and existing investors conduct thorough investment research of their own, including detailed review of the companies’ regulatory filings, and consult a qualified investment advisor. The information upon which this material is based was obtained from sources believed to be reliable but has not been independently verified. Therefore, the author cannot guarantee its accuracy. Any opinions or estimates constitute the author’s best judgment as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice.The author may hold positions in any of the securities mentioned
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Andrew Scott and ECR Minerals #ECR CEO Andrew Haythorpe discuss the Placer Gold & Hurricane Acquisition

Andrew Scott and ECR Minerals #ECR CEO Andrew Haythorpe discuss the Placer Gold & Hurricane Acquisition.

Andrew H explains how, through his previous work at Hurricane, the area is high prospective for gold and antimony. A raft of historical data, numerous veins of mineralisation between 2-5m thick containing 1, 2, 5, 20 g/t – commercial grades. The region is inland from Port Douglas, and due to the relatively inhospitable climate has never been drilled, although a colleague geologist visited the area last year and reported back to Andrew on the extensive veining and mineralisation.

Andrew then discusses the option to acquire the project, very much a try before you buy approach in that the initial fee goes into the ground. Then, armed with the knowledge of the region from drilling, the option to buy, is he believes a great, risk managed approach. The potential acquisition is a good fit for ECR, which sits well alongside the Lolworth project, also being in the same region. The acquisition is a step change for ECR – Andrew says the team will be knocking on the rocks with gold in them.

ECR Minerals #ECR – CEO Andrew Haythorpe talks to Andrew Scott, October 2022

Andrew Haythorpe talks to Andrew Scott about the latest developments. He explains the nuggety gold nature of Creswick and how he has approached assessing Creswick as a prospect for the company. He is very encouraged by the results and proven sampling process, stating he believes it adds confidence as the team work towards planning resources, reserve estimate and mine plan. Andrew then talks through the final results from drilling at Bailieston, the multiple hits, and the search for more consistent grades to build a feasibility study. He tells Andrew Scott why Blue Moon is one of the lead prospects due to the grades, widths, consistency and geology – potentially a massive system. Andrew then looks at the new drill rig and how that will be deployed, before discussing the further progress on non-core asset sales. Andrew looks at next steps, with a focus on Blue Moon drilling through to Christmas, bringing the new rig work to bring up to spec, then moving it to Creswick. He talks through the sampling programme at Lolworth in N Queensland, what the team have seen so far is v encouraging, with potential for multiple gold occurrences. Andrew finishes with a look at the macro picture for investors, and how ECR are building value from the ground up.

ECR Minerals #ECR – Director Adam Jones discusses the latest Creswick update, plus Bailieston, Blue Moon and Lolworth projects

ECR Technical Director Adam Jones talks to Alan Green about the latest re-assay update from Creswick and the bumper gold grades. We look at what this will mean for Creswick going forward, before moving onto the final drilling results announced last week from Bailieston, the latest drilling news from the Blue Moon project and the Lolworth Range sampling programme in N Queensland. We finish with some near term milestones for investors to look out for.

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