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ECR Minerals #ECR Queensland Progress – Andrew Scott talks to Andrew Haythorpe and Adam Jones

ECR Minerals #ECR Queensland Progress – Andrew Scott talks to Andrew Haythorpe and Adam Jones. Having finished an intensive week at the Hurricane project, Adam is back at the Lolworth project seeking drill targets. Gold remains the key focus and with stream sediment data scheduled for release, the team are aiming to establish 4 main prospects for drill targets. Reflecting on the work at Hurricane, with 249 samples collected, the first two batches are processing right now. The focus is antimony, and once the samples return the team will evaluate vein size, best drill sites and the best access points. Andrew also touches on the Blue Mountain project, which is similar to Lolworth with visible gold shedding in the drainage systems, but no work has been done there yet. Andrew then puts his analyst hat on and discusses the massive disconnect between valuations and markets. Historically, equities trade at prices greater than spot gold, and despite high inflation and interest rates, with stocks as low as they are, Andrew believes we are seeing a repetition cycle similar to the lows for resource stocks in the late 1980s and 1990’s, there is an opportunity to get underpriced gold stocks into your portfolio with a 2-5 year view.

ECR Minerals #ECR – Adam Jones discusses the latest developments at Lolworth, Hurricane and Creswick

In the latest interview, Technical Director Adam Jones discusses the Lolworth niobium / tantalum announcement, the samples from the soil grid covering the main drainage channel and why the pXRF gun has proved so effective in identifying minerals like niobium. Adam explains how team originally went to Lolworth for gold, but they quickly realised the area’s potential for niobium, tantalum and rare earths and that the geology is very suited to hosting critical minerals. With 140+ rock chips collected, ECR expects a 2-3 week turnaround, but that the sheer size and scale of the area will require further rock chip collections and further refining of the best anomalous target areas.

Adam then moves to the Hurricane project, and his plans to return in August to determine access points and undertake further field work to collect rock chips. Finally Adam talks through yesterday’s Creswick announcement, and the company’s commitments to keep the ground work ticking along and further define ore shoots.

The interview finishes with Adam highlighting the expected news flow for the coming months, and explaining why the Queensland projects are lower risk and represent a bigger bang for the buck.

ECR Minerals #ECR – Hurricane Force

Andrew Scott talks to ECR Minerals Technical Director Adam Jones about the recently completed LIDAR survey at the Hurricane Project. Adam explains the LIDAR technology and its accuracy, and describes the results and elevations identified alongside the existing outcrops on a NW strike trend. Adam discusses the primary prospects Tornado, Cyclone and Holmes – Tornado is at least 200m long, averaging 3m wide and up to 20m wide in parts, with the best historical rock chips registering 17 g/t Au. ECR are waiting for indigenous approval to send a bulldozer out to fix the access track. Adam adds to CEO Andrew Haythorpe’s previous appraisal that Hurricane is a later stage project, and he believes the simplified geology will enable the company to get in, drill out and establish a mineral resource estimate in fairly short order.

Adam also touches on the Lolworth soil samples results. WIth 200 stream seds and approx 130 rock chips taken, the labs have been instructed to test for gold results first, then niobium, tantalum and rare earths. A steady flow of news is expected over the next 3 months.

ECR Minerals #ECR – Andrew Haythorpe & Adam Jones talk to Alan Green – June 2023

ECR’s Andrew Haythorpe & Adam Jones talk to Alan Green – June 2023. Adam Jones is live from the bush in Queensland, and initially discusses early findings at the Hurricane project, along with the plan of action for sampling and drilling in the coming months. Andrew then discusses the background to Hurricane and his knowledge of the project prior to his time with ECR, before discussing the plan to undertake a LIDAR survey of the project area. Adam and Andrew then discuss the latest progress from Lolworth, and the focus areas for sampling following the gold, niobium and tantalum discoveries last year and how Lolworth is shaping up into a multi commodity project of significant scale. Andrew then discusses the funding position, the challenging markets, plans for further non-core asset disposals and plans for the second drill rig that recently arrived at Melbourne. Finally Andrew re affirms his view that ECR has the some of the best assets he’s seen in recent years

January 2023 Investment Review – Alan Green talks to Ken Baksh

January 2023 Investment Review – Alan Green talks to Ken Baksh. Covering global markets, trends for 2023 and expected developments, the interview is published in conjunction with Ken’s investment report here

Ken’s outlook is best summarised with ‘Ken’s Tens’.

• Keep an overweight position in renewable/infrastructure, especially in investment trust (page 21).
• Favour value over growth generally-trade has further to run.
• Stay neutral/overweight in UK equities relative to your benchmark (page15).
• Overweight Far East,including China,Japan and other Asia (pages 16-19).
• Start switching large cap to small cap-valuation/performance.
• Start diversifying away from strong dollar.
• Overweight uranium relative to your commodity benchmark (page 21).
• Amongst UK sectors overweight telecom, health equipment, defence, tobacco and energy (pages 13-14),”not too ESG friendly,I am afraid”.
• Amongst UK sectors underweight luxury, motor related, most capital goods, consumer brands and food retail (pages 13-14).
• Within UK Fixed Interest prefer corporate bonds, preference shares, and zeroes to conventional gilts (page 21)-start rebuilding some fixed interest exposure,especially for cautious and balanced risk profiles.

ECR Minerals #ECR – Andrew Scott, Andrew Haythorpe & Adam Jones discuss Creswick, Blue Moon, Bailieston, Lolworth, Hurricane & plans for 2023

Andrew Scott, Andrew Haythorpe & Adam Jones discuss today’s developments at Creswick plus the latest developments from Blue Moon, Bailieston, Lolworth, Hurricane. At Creswick the team talk through how workings there produced several m oz of gold production over a century ago, and how the team are seeking out the primary sources. Updates on the latest license applications and approvals, before Adam talks through the latest from Lolworth and the pegmatites identified in the Gorge Creek area. Andrew Haythorpe says he was astonished by the amount of visible gold & lack of follow up -and with the abundance of mineralisation styles, early results are way in excess of what he’d hoped for. Onto Blue Moon, and the drill team are finishing off the last four holes, testing continuity of mineralisation some 200m to the west. Adam explains how the team are speeding up assays, they have located a local lab in Bendigo which can turn around assays in 10-14 days. Andrew Haythorpe then talks through the rationale behind the recent fund raise, and how the funding will enable ECR to maintain multiple aggressive drill campaigns, before moving onto the plans to get on the ground and establish drill pads etc at Hurricane in May, June next year. With the new drill rig undergoing commissioning in January, the team expect to deploy it during Q1, and Adam outlines drill plans for Q1, with Blue Moon expected to finish in February and then a push on Creswick on ECR’s own Brewing Lane property. Andrew Haythorpe concludes, stating there will be a steady flow of news in Q1 2023, and says that the Company has now built a great foundation for shareholders in 2022.

Tertiary Minerals #TYM – Alan Green talks to Chairman Patrick Cheetham

Alan Green talks to Tertiary Minerals #TYM Chairman about the full year results and progress to date. Patrick looks at the group’s Zambia operations, including the Jacks Copper Project, and looks at the collaboration with multi billion dollar copper giant First Quantum Minerals #FQM in regard to Tertiary’s Mukai and Mushima North projects. We then look at Lubiula and Konkola West projects, before moving onto the group’s Brunton Pass Copper project in Nevada, USA. Patrick then looks at potential trigger points for the Tertiary share price and valuation ahead of a busy 2023.

Ken Baksh – December Investment Monthly

In our December investment review, Ken discusses the macro picture in the US, Europe, China and Japan before looking at the effects of inflation. We then look at moves over the past 2 months before moving to the UK economy and issues such as consumer confidence, the trade deficit and Govt deficit, insolvencies and recession expectations. Ken highlights the good job that PM Rishi Sunak has done in steadying the ship, before we look at how previous stock picks in October and November have performed. These include Legal & General #LGEN, Smith & Nephew #SN, Begbies Traynor #BEG, Greencoat UK Wind #UKW, Whitbread #WTB, Frontier IP #FIPP, Enquest Bond #ENQ2 and Georgia Capital #CGEO. Ken then picks out four more stocks for growth, These are:

Chemring #CHG

Lloyds Preference Share #LLPC

Asia Dragon Trust #DGN

Legal & General Cyber Security ETF #ISPY

DECEMBER 2022 Market Report

Investment Review

Summary

During the one-month period to 30th November 2022, major equity markets, as measured by the
aggregate FTSE All – World Index, rose by over 5%, reducing the year-to-date loss to 18%, in $ terms.
Chinese equities, were very strong gaining over 30% and taking the broad emerging market indices
and Asia with them. The VIX index fell, finishing the period at a level of 22.22.
Government Fixed Interest stocks also rose over the month. The UK 10-year gilt ended the month on
a yield of 3.16% with corresponding yields of 3.77%, 1.94% and 0.25% in USA, Germany, and Japan
respectively. Speculative and lower quality bonds, however,fell in price terms. Currency moves
featured a weaker US dollar. Commodities were mixed.

News

Over the recent month, the OECD has made further downgrades to world economic growth and
anecdotal evidence from several third quarter reporting companies suggests that the slowdown is
accelerating. e.g. Maersk (“freight rates peaked….decreasing demand”).
At the same time, key data indicators (factory gate and commodity prices, shipping rates, inflation
expectations) suggest that headline price growth is set to slow in coming months, although labour
compensation developments must be watched carefully .
More volatility expected in oil prices as western countries prepare to impose a price cap on Russian
crude.
FTX,a leading crypto exchange,and a sprawling network of affiliated firms filed for bankruptcy
protection dealing another blow to the crypto sector.

US

Recent US Federal Reserve meetings and informal comments by Jerome Powell and other Fed
governors remain hawkish and further increases are expected though calls for 50bp rather than
75bp are increasing. The latest rise took the benchmark rate to the 3.75%/4% range.At a speech at
the Brookings Institute yesterday,the Fed Chairman sent mixed signals that the fight against
inflation “had a long way to go” while also sending a strong hint that the next rate rise,mid
December, would be 50bp rather than 75bp
would be Downward projections to economic growth, and upward moves to inflation forecasts
were also released.
Recently announced inflation indicators showed October headline CPI of 7.7%, lower than estimates,
while the core inflation rate rose by 6.3%. First quarter negative GDP growth followed by second
quarter of -0.9% signals a “technical recession”, although labour/employment trends still seem
reasonably robust. Third quarter preliminary GDP growth of 2.6%, annualised, while higher than

estimates concealed a weaker consumer component offset by a strong trade balance. Recent
consumer sentiment indicators (November composite PMI for example), retail sales, housing
activity, construction figures and the Empire States Survey back this up, showing declining trends
into recent weeks. . The Fed’s own forecasts expect GDP growth of 0.2% and 1.2%, and core PCE
growth of 4.5% and 3.1% respectively for 2022 and 2023
US midterm election results showed the Republicans narrowly taking control of the House of
Representatives while the Democrats retained the Senate, a situation which could minimise more
extreme policies, but also thwart some of Biden’s ambitions. Donald Trump has vowed to return in
2024, although the Republican Party is far from united at the current time

 

EUROPE

The European Central Bank raised interest rates by half a percentage point on July 22nd, and a further
75bp in September also pledging to support surging borrowing costs from sparking a eurozone debt
crisis. The ECB raised interest rates by another 75bp, to their highest level since 2009, on 27th
October, pledging to continue increasing borrowing costs in the coming months to tackle record
inflation, despite a looming recession. On 29th November, Christine Lagarde, the ECB president,
warned that the bank was “not done” raising interest rates, saying that inflation “still has a way to
go”.
First quarter 2022 GDP for the Eurozone showed a weaker than expected trend especially in
Sweden, Italy and Germany and more recent indicators show a continuation of this trend,
exacerbated by the Russia/Ukraine conflict, supply chain issues, and rapidly increasing costs. The
“flash” PMI figure for October, released on the24th October, fell to 47.1 the lowest since November
2020, although German quarterly GDP growth figures, just released, were marginally ahead of
expectations.
Current ECB staff projections foresee economic growth of 2.8% for 2022, a sharp reduction on the
previous forecast, and further downgrades could be likely in the wake of the ongoing Ukrainian
conflict and related gas shortages.
November Eurozone inflation, just released, of 10.0% was lower than expected.with slower gains in
energy and services ,and faster growth in food prices.

ASIA excl JAPAN

The GDP figures, shown below (source: CLSA, CEIC) show that 2022 and 2023 growth
projections for the Asia excl Japan region compare favourably with those of other developed
regions. The reasons include a “better” Covid experience, selective commodity exposure,
tourism, continued FDI Investment (especially China related) and better initial fiscal
situations (compared with late 90’s for example) and limited direct connections with the
Russia/Ukraine situation. The forecasts do not assume a total easing of Chinese covid rules.
Headline inflation of around 5% (core 3%) also compares favourably.
Geo-political concerns must be taken into account, especially In Taiwan.


CHINA

The 5.5% official GDP growth target for 2022 looks clearly unachievable, with some investment
banks now forecasting below 3%. Official data shows weakening trends in consumer spending, fixed
asset investment and construction activity while more recent “live” tracking data e.g., mobility,
cement production and electricity use also showed subdued economic activity. Official data for the
third quarter, just released shows growth of 3.9%. The major historic negative issues of a very
restrictive anti-Covid policy and major disruption within the property market have now been
supplemented by increasing US restrictions on the production/export of certain key electronic
products.
At the time of writing a property “rescue” package has been implemented, while on the Covid front,
tens of thousands of people have taken to the streets protesting strict coronavirus controls and
suppression of freedom of speech, triggering clashes with police and security forces.While nothing is
certain in Xi’s approach to the Covid Pandemic, there is a growing feeling that certain measures will
be relaxed/increase in vaccination.


JAPAN

The Japanese economy contracted 1.2% on an annualized basis during the third quarter of 2022,
missing forecasts of 1.1% growth, and considerably weaker than the 4.6% expansion recorded during
the second quarter. This was the first down quarter of the year reflecting weak domestic
consumption, a slowdown in business investment and an acceleration in imports. Estimates for the
full year seem to fall mainly within the 1.5%-2.0% band. Inflation, while still well below international
peers, rose by 3.6% in October, the highest since 1982, driven by currency weakness.
Recently the Japanese government unveiled a $197 billion stimulus package to ease the impact on
consumers of soaring commodity prices and a falling yen, while the BoJ stuck by its ultra-loose
policy, maintaining very low interest rates and re-affirming it yield control policy.

UNITED KINGDOM

Within the UK, live activity data (e.g November Gfk data) continues to show a weaker overall trend,
especially within the services sector. According to this survey, released late November, covering the
mid November period, consumer confidence remains very low, amid the cost-of-living crisis.The

retail sales figure for October did however show a slightly better than expected reading but this may
have been distorted by the Queen’s mourning period . Unemployment, however, is still at a very
low level, although recent official figures did show a tentative slowing in hiring intentions.
Inflation continues to rise, the October CPI and RPI readings registering hikes of 11.1% and 14.2%
respectively. Kantar and the ONS both reported food/grocery prices rising about 15% year on year as
well as turkey/egg shortages.Happy Christmas!
The PSBR was starting to deteriorate again, largely as a results of rapidly rising interest (index linked)
payments and expectations of higher public sector pay and state pensions. The most recent “official”
figure showed September PSNB at £20 billion, much larger than forecast and the second largest
since monthly records began in 1993, according to the ONS.

Despite some relief with the recent energy price package, until April at least, (but not other utilitiessee below), shop price inflation, greater Council Tax “freedom”, upward interest/mortgage rate
pressure, stalling house prices, accelerating rents, insolvencies/evictions, legacy Brexit issues and ,
strike activity, will continue to be headwinds and the outlook for economic growth over coming
quarters is highly uncertain. Both the Bank of England as well as the OBR and now the OECD are
expecting recessionary conditions for one to two years.

Experts at consultancy EY-Parthenon reported that company profit warnings had jumped from 51 to
over 86 over the third quarter of 2022 citing increasing costs and overheads as the main reason,
especially in consumer facing businesses. Another report from Begbies Traynor, Latest Red Flag Alert

Report for Q3 2022 – 07:00:07 19 Oct 2022 – BEG News article | London Stock Exchange quoted that
over 600,000 business were already in severe financial distress.
Monetary policy has tightened from a 0.1% interest rate in December last year to the 1.25% rate set
in June and a further 50bp at the August, meeting, followed by 50bp in September, taking the
benchmark rate to 2.25%. Markets are expecting rates to be above 4.0% by mid-2023.

Autumn Statement
On 17th November, Chancellor Hunt told a sombre House of Commons that a massive fiscal
consolidation including £30 billion of spending cuts and £25 billion of tax rises was needed to restore
Britain’s credibility and tame inflation. The OBR said they expected the economy to shrink 1.4% and
not regain pre -pandemic levels until 2024.Inflation was expected to remain over 7% next year.
While many of the proposals had been leaked, and the market reaction was muted (first objective
achieved!), there were a few positive surprises (e.g help for NHS and education) and several
negatives.
From an investor point of view the reduction in tax free allowances for investment income and
capital gains, was higher than expected. Make full use of ISA etc while can!


Monthly Review of Markets
Equities
Global Equities rose over November (+5.02%) extending the quarterly recovery and reducing the
year to date decline to 18.04% in dollar terms. All major indices climbed with especially large gains
registered in China, which also benefited Emerging Market and FT Asia-excl Japan bourses.

Continental European indices were also relatively strong, while the NASDAQ and Nikkei lagged in
relative terms. The VIX index fell over the month to end November at a level of 22.22. The ten –
month gain of 29.04% reflects the degree of risk aversion compared with the” relative calm” of last
December (medical, geo-political and economic!)

UK Sectors
Sector moves were again very mixed over the month although most ended in positive territory. The
few losers included telco’s and tobacco On the other hand, miners, utilities, life companies,
financials,retailers and food were relatively strong. The FTSE100 outperformed the All-Share Index
and is about 3% ahead of the broader index since the beginning of the year. By IA sectors, UK active
unit trusts are underperforming benchmark indices, trackers etc, so far this year, with small
company funds even more so. Income based funds, by contrast, are significantly outperforming the
averages. “Balanced” funds, by IA definitions, are falling by about 8%-10% so far this year (Source:
Trustnet November 30th).


Fixed Interest
Major global government bonds rose in price terms over November, the UK 10-year yield for
instance finishing the month at a yield of 3.16%. Other ten-year government bond yields showed
closing month yields of 3.77%,1.93% and 0.25% for US, German and Japanese debt respectively. UK
corporate bonds also bounced strongly, up approximately 4% on the month in price terms.
Speculative bonds, however, bucked the trend falling in price terms.
Year to date, the composite gilt index has fallen approximately 22% underperforming UK higher
quality corporate bonds in price terms and more so in total return.
Check my recommendations in preference shares, selected corporate bonds,fixed interest ETF’s ,
zero-coupons, speculative high yield etc. A list of my top ideas from over 10 different asset classes
is also available to subscribers.

Foreign Exchange
Currency moves featured a sharp fall in the US dollar, largely following the better-than-expected
inflation rate. Sterling rose against the US dollar but fell against the Japanese Yen and Euro. Currency
developments during November also included modest strength in the Chinese Yuan.

Commodities
A mixed performance by commodities during November with weakness in Oil and many agricultural
commodities and strength in copper, Iron ore and the precious metals. Year to date, uranium and
the energy complex are strongly up in price terms while industrial metals copper, aluminium and
iron have all shown price declines of over 13%. Gold has also dropped in dollar terms by about 3% so
far this year.

Looking Forward
Major central banks have remained hawkish with reducing QE/commencing QT and accelerating the
timing and extents of rate increases as the main objectives, especially where inflation control is the
sole mandate. In a growing number of smaller economies where US contagion, politics, commodity
exposure inflation/fx are also issues, several official increase rate increases have already taken
effect. Japan, however, has continued to adopt stimulative measures, up to now.
Global Government Bonds have stabilised somewhat although differing inflationary outlooks and
supply concerns could lead to continued volatility in the sector.
For equities, the two medium term key questions will be when rising interest rates eventually cause
equity derating/fund flow switches, government, corporate and household problems, and how the
rate of corporate earnings growth develops after the initial snapback. Going forward, withdrawal of
certain pandemic supports, uncertain consumer and corporate behaviour and cost pressures are
likely to lead to great variations by sector and individual company. The third quarter reporting
season produced several negative surprises e.g large American technology companies and UK
building and property companies.


.

Observations/Thoughts
ASSET ALLOCATION
As well as maintaining an overweight position in UK equities, it may be worth initiating or adding to
Japanese positions within an international portfolio. The US market has fallen about 19% so far this
year (NASDAQ -30%) but remains a relative underweight in my view. Margin pressure headwinds,
political uncertainty, prospective dollar weakness and technology sector volatility must be balanced
against the current stock market ratings. Continental European equities appear cheaply rated in
aggregate, but great selectivity is required. Within the Emerging market space I currently favour
exposure to the Far East.

Another major asset allocation decision would be to keep part of the conventional “fixed interest”
portion in alternative income plays in the infrastructure, renewables, and specialist property
areas. Many instruments in this area provide superior capital growth, income, and lower volatility
than gilts for example. Recent stock market volatility has brought several renewable stocks back to
attractive levels.
I am also adding selected preference shares to the “fixed interest” allocation, where annual yields
of approximately 6% are currently available.

UK Equities continue to remain a relative overweight in my view, based on several
conventional investment metrics (see above), longer term underperformance since the
Brexit vote, style preference (value overgrowth) and international resource exposure
although be aware of the numerous domestic headwinds I have highlighted above.
Value should be favoured over growth, and the FTSE 100 favoured over the FT All-Share.
Apart from the style drift, remember that the non sterling element of leading FTSE 100
companies and sectors is relatively high
By sector, Oil and Mining equities continue to benefit from above average yields, strong
balance sheets, dollar exposure and secular demand e.g copper, cobalt for electronics,
construction, electric vehicles etc. Any moves regarding Chinese re-opening the economy
would be another positive for this sector.
Remain overweight in pharmaceuticals and underweight in non-renewable utility stocks
which may suffer from consumer and government pressures, and no longer trade on yield
premia, especially against the backdrop of higher gilt yields.
Construction materials, especially cement will benefit from growing
infrastructure/renewable initiatives., although rising cost pressures and falling housing
activity must also be considered.
Banks, may enjoy some relative strength from rising interest rates, but continue to
monitor the recession/loan growth and default risks.These mixed trends were very
evident in the recent third quarter figures. Preference Shares as well as ordinary shares
have attractions in this area
Housebuilders and real estate-expect depressed activity and remember that the rising
interest rates have not yet been fully factored into bricks and mortar property yields.
Industry data and anecdotal news from both housebuilders and REIT’s suggest further
weakness to come.

Retailers are in general suffering from a combination of falling sales and rising costs and
clear trends in consumers “trading down” are apparent. Certain on-line operations e.g
Asos additionally are suffering from an element of post-Covid comparison.
Domestic Breweries/pubs etc are having a hard time with stalling consumer’s
expenditure, supermarket competition and rapidly rising costs.
Airlines may suffer as a result of large dollar costs, uncertain foreign travel outlook and
often high debt levels
Extra due diligence at stock level more generally will be required as I expect a growing
number of profit warnings and downbeat forward looking statements. See the EY and
Begbies statements on page 7 above.
However,takeover activity is also clearly increasing with, for example, private equity
snapping up UK-listed companies at the fastest pace for more than twenty years. Foreign
takeover, stake building is also increasing, current weak sterling being a factor, with
Vodafone under scrutiny by a French (who already have BT interest!) investor. Biffa (waste
management),MicroFocus(technology),Aveva(software) and RPS(professional services)
have all succumbed to foreign takeovers in recent months, much by “strong dollar”
American or Canadian organizations.

JAPANESE EQUITIES also remain an overweight in my view, although my recent
comment re hedging may “nuanced “now following the extreme currency weakness and
surprise intervention. Unlike most other major economies, Japan is expected to continue
its easy money policy. Exporters have benefitted from the plunging Yen although higher
input costs and more “off-shoring” also must be considered. The prospective price/book
ratio of 1.19 is attracting interest of corporate and private equity buyers, while the
prospective yield of 2.6% is above the world average and compares very favourably with
USA (1.7%). Corporate governance is rapidly improving with diverse boards, reduction of
cross holding, higher dividends etc. There are clear signs that inward investment attracted
by the pro-growth, pro-deregulation agenda and relatively low costs (average Japanese
annual wage $30000 compared with $75000 USA) is increasing. Private equity stake
building interest in Toshiba and growing activity in the property sector (discount on a
discount in a cheap currency) demonstrate the search for value in Japan. Investors may
wish to adopt a partially rather than fully hedged FX position following recent
developments
On a valuation basis (see table above) the forward PE multiple of 12.9 is at a considerable
discount to the world, and especially US average (18.0)

EMERGING MARKETS-Very difficult to adopt a “blanket” approach to the region even in
“normal times”, but especially difficult now, with so many different COVID, commodity,
sectoral mix, debt, geo-political and increasingly natural disaster variables. The IMF recently
warned that several emerging nations could disproportionately suffer from a combination of
COVID and adverse reaction to “tapering” by developed counties e.g., FX/Interest rate

pressures. Six countries have already defaulted during the pandemic, and the IMF is currently
in various stages of bail-out discussions with Pakistan,Argentina,Zambia,Sri
Lanka,Ghana,Tunisia and Egypt.
Within the emerging/frontier universe I continue to have a relatively positive view on Asia.
The economic fundamentals were discussed on page 16 above, and the forward-looking
multiples and dividend growth metrics appear relatively attractive in a global context. Any
move by China to open more fully after their severe Covid lockdown, would of course
additionally help. Exposure to the entire area can be achieved through a number of ETF’s and
also investment trusts currently on discounts
If a country-by-country approach is adopted, I have a longer term positive view on Vietnam
where, the nation is supported by positive demographics, with a population of near 100
million, an emerging middle class, and a recipient of strong foreign direct investment.
Qualconn,an Apple supplier, Intel(semi-conductors),Lego and Samsung(mobile phone plant)
have all recently invested in new capacity in the country. Other big names moving chunks of
production from China to Vietnam include Dell and HP (laptops), Google(phones)and
Microsoft (Games Consoles) The economy is expected to grow at around 6.5% this year (7.7%
Q2 2022) and current inflation is running at about 3.5%. On a relatively low prospective PE
based on forecast earnings growth over 20%, Vietnamese equities appear good value. India,
although quite highly rated and a major oil importer, warrants inclusion in a diversified
portfolio, and is currently receiving some fund flows from “overweight” Chinese portfolios.
Indonesia, the last of my current Asian ideas benefits from a commodity boom, strong
domestic market, low debt, relatively stable currency, forecast 5% GDP growth and 5%
inflation

Caution is required in many South American markets with poor COVID-19 situations,
deteriorating fiscal balances, weak investment, low productivity (see below) and
governments in a state of transitioning e.g Brazil. However, some stock market
valuations currently appear interesting in the region, which, so far, has been relatively
unaffected by events in Ukraine. Commodity exposure, deglobalization beneficiary,
valuation and recovery from a very low-level account for some year-to-date stock
market relative out- performance. Many of these countries also raised interest rates
at an earlier stage, allowing relative currency strength, compared with say the Euro,Yen or Sterling.

Certain areas within Central Europe are starting to receive more attention, mainly on
valuation grounds, but the lingering Covid effects and indir
ect effects of the Russia/Ukraine invasion should be borne into account. Regarding the
latter, a reduction/termination of Russian gas supply could have a serious recessionary
impact in certain countries. Large refugee influxes e.g Poland are also starting to
create budgetary/social issues.

Comments re great selectivity above also apply to emerging market debt. For the
more adventurous fixed interest investor combinations of well above average yields
(sometimes caused by pre-emptive moves last year), stable fiscal and FX situations
and, diversified economic models could provide outperformance from carefully
selected bonds.


• COMMODITIES– Gold spiked to over $2000 in March, a recent high, when Russia invaded
Ukraine, but has since fallen about 12%, although of course, remaining reasonably stable in
many local currency terms . The longer-term prospects for more cyclical plays continue to
look brighter. Increased renewable initiatives, greater infrastructure spending as well as
general growth, especially from Asia, are likely to keep selected commodities in demand at
the same time as certain supply constraints (weather, labour and equipment shortages,
Covid, transport) are biting. Anecdotal evidence from reporting companies RTZ, BHP and
Anglo American appear to suggest that the industry is enjoying a bumper time, and with
disciplined capex programmes, extra dividends and share buy-backs are commonplace!
Current rumours of a cautious relaxation of the Chinese Covid policy, may provide a boost to
base metals.
• Wheat and other grain prices have fallen from the levels reached following the Russian
invasion of Ukraine, but the current grain shipment complications, planting/harvesting
schedules within the region and extreme global meteorological conditions are expected to
lead to further price volatility. If the conflict is prolonged it will affect millions of people
living in such places as Egypt, Libya, Lebanon Tunisia, Morocco, Pakistan and Indonesia that
could have political consequences. There has been renewed interest in agricultural funds as
well as the soft commodities themselves.

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE remains a longer-term theme, and will be built into
the many infrastructure initiatives, being pursued by Europe, USA, and Asia. The
Russia/Ukraine conflict is accelerating the debate, and hopefully the action. There are
several infrastructure/renewable investment vehicles which still appear attractive, in

my view, combining well above average yields and low market correlation with low
premium to asset value. The recent volatility in natural gas prices has highlighted both
risks and opportunities in the production and storage of energy from alternative
sources. However, increasing levels of due diligence are required, in committing new
money to the area overall. Financial watchdogs across the world are sharpening their
scrutiny of potential “greenwashing” in the investment industry on rising concerns that
capital is being deployed on misleading claims.
• However, in the shorter term, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has precipitated a global
energy crisis, that has forced countries, especially in Europe to look for ways to quickly
wean themselves off Russian oil and gas, and reconsider timelines of commitments to
cut the use of fossil fuels. At the time of writing, it seems highly likely that USA will
increase oil and gas output, UK North Sea may see further investment and EU coal
consumption could increase.
• Another area currently in the ESG purist cross hairs is “nuclear”. Ignoring the fact that
nuclear weapons have not been used in anger since 1945, and the fact that some deterrent is
needed, (now?), where should the confused investor stand when it comes to nuclear power
substituting coal power? Japan, UK and Germany are all studying proposals to revive their
nuclear power capacities. I have some interesting “uranium play” ideas for those interested.


• ALTERNATIVE ASSETS-this group, encompassing private equity, private debt, hedge
funds, real estate, infrastructure, and natural resources is expected to continue growing both
in actual and relative terms over coming years.
Traditional asset management groups are racing to expand offerings in alternative
investments as they seek to boost profitability and head off competition from private
equity groups (see graph below).
I have, for a while, recommended some exposure to this area maybe as part of the
former “gilt allocation”. With strong caveats re liquidity, transparency, dealing
process, I still adopt this stance, continuing to use the investment trust route. So far
this year, gilts have declined approximately 24% while my favoured UK renewable
closed-end funds have appreciated by around 6% in capital terms and delivered about
6% in annual income. Please contact me directly for specific ideas

COMMERCIAL PROPERTY The MSCI/IPD Property Index showed a sharp fall in the total return across all
properties in October, the decline of 6.4% (-6.8% capital values, +0.4% income),taking
the year to date return to -1.6% (capital -5.2%,Income +3.8%).The monthly decline
accelerated the downward trend started in July this year, especially in Industrial
Properties. Rental growth however was positive at +2.4% in October..or 4.4%
annualised for the ten month period
Several analysts are down grading their estimates for the sector following the rapid move
in UK longer and shorter-term interest rates. Property asset valuations take time to
materialise where there is a lag between balance sheet date and results publication in
the listed area. Live traded property corporate bonds, however, have already moved
sharply lower.
Quoted property giants British Land and Land Securities both reported deteriorating
conditions witing their third quarter statements, expecting further valuation declines
following rising yields.

Full asset allocation and stock selection ideas if needed for ISA/dealing accounts, pensions.
Ideas for a ten stock FTSE portfolio. Stock/pooled fund lists for income, cautious or growth
portfolios are available. Hedging ideas, and a list of shorter-term low risk/ high risk ideas
can also be purchased.
I also undertake bespoke portfolio construction/restructuring and analysis of legacy
portfolios.
Independence from any product provider and transparent charging structure
Feel free to contact regarding any investment project.
Good luck with performance!
Ken Baksh Bsc,Fellow (UK Society of Investment Professionals)
kenbaksh@btopenworld.com

1st December ,2022
Important Note: This article is not an investment recommendation and should
not be relied upon when making investment decisions – investors should conduct
their own comprehensive research. Please read the disclaimer.
Disclaimer: Opinions expressed herein by the author are not an investment
recommendation and are not meant to be relied upon in investment decisions.
The author is not acting in an investment, tax, legal or any other advisory
capacity. This is not an investment research report. The author’s opinions
expressed herein address only select aspects of potential investment in
securities of the companies mentioned and cannot be a substitute for
comprehensive investment analysis. Any analysis presented herein is illustrative
in nature, limited in scope, based on an incomplete set of information, and has
limitations to its accuracy. The author recommends that potential and existing
investors conduct thorough investment research of their own, including detailed
review of the companies’ regulatory filings, and consult a qualified investment
advisor. The information upon which this material is based was obtained from
sources believed to be reliable but has not been independently verified.
Therefore, the author cannot guarantee its accuracy. Any opinions or estimates
constitute the author’s best judgment as of the date of publication and are
subject to change without notice.The author may hold positions in any of the
securities mentioned
The author explicitly disclaims any liability that may arise from the use of this
material.

Power Metal Resources #POW – December interview with CEO Paul Johnson

Alan Green talks to CEO Paul Johnson. We cover the drilling campaign at the Molopo Farms Complex project in Botswana, before Paul covers recent developments at the Tati Gold project, also in Botswana. We then look at developments in Canada, both at the group’s Athabasca Uranium project and the new Lithium project acquisition, before we turn to the upcoming IPO’s including Golden Metal Resources and First Development Resources. Paul looks at what the Christmas period will hold for the POW team and the likely news flow over the Xmas period and into the new year.

Power Metal Resources #POW – Molopo Farms Complex Discovery. Paul Johnson talks to Alan Green

Alan Green talks to Power Metal Resources #POW CEO Paul Johnson about today’s discovery at the Molopo Farms Complex in Botswana. Paul talks through the images and drill results from Molopo, and the nickel samples taken on the edge of what appears to be a substantial ore body.

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