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Ken Baksh – November Market Report – Is it safe to put a toe in?
November 2018 Market Report
During the month to October 31st, 2018, major equity markets displayed a very weak trend, falling by 8.52% overall and the VIX index rose sharply to 22.05. The month was the worst equity performance for more than six years. There continued to be an abundance of market moving news over what is traditionally a volatile month, at macro-economic, corporate and political levels.
The European Central Bank appeared to become more certain of removing QE over coming quarters, with more hawkish policy statements, but delaying any interest rate increase until 2019, while economic news seems to have been weaker than forecast in recent months, particularly in Germany. Political events were not in short supply, and in Turkey for example, continued to affect bond and currency markets while Italian bonds oscillated with the growing tension between the two-party Government and the ECB. Angela Merkel stood down as CDU leader late in the month, a position occupied for 18 years. US market watchers continued to grapple with ongoing tariff discussions, Federal Budget, Turkish stand-off, NAFTA follow up and North Korean meeting uncertainty as well as Trump’s growing domestic issues, ominously becoming higher profile, before the important November midterm elections. US economic data and corporate results so far have generally been above expectation and the official interest rate was increased again in September to a range of 2%-2.25%. Provisional third quarter GDP growth figures showed very buoyant consumer trends but weak corporate investment and foreign trade. In the Far East, China flexed its muscles in response to Trump’s trade and other demands while relaxing some bank reserve requirements and “allowing” the currency to drift to a recent low. Recent indicators and statements would suggest a slowdown in 2018 growth to a still very respectable 6%-6.5%. Japanese second quarter GDP growth appeared higher than expected and Shinzo Abe consolidated his political position, both perceived as market friendly, and the ten-year bond continues to trade near the recent yield high. At the October BoJ meeting, the current easier fiscal stance was reconfirmed. The UK reported mixed economic data with satisfactory developments on the government borrowing side, inflation higher than expected, but poor relative GDP figures and deteriorating property sentiment, both residential and commercial. Recent retail data shows mixed trends, some “weather related”. Market attention, both domestic and international is clearly focussed on ongoing BREXIT developments and their strong influence on politics. Although the Budget presented on October 29th, showed a slightly higher GDP forecast and a more expansionary fiscal approach, the Chancellor made frequent references to the unsettling effects of any unsatisfactory Brexit outcome.
Aggregate world hard economic data continues to show steady expansion, although forecasts of future growth have been trimmed in recent months by the leading independent international organization. Fluctuating currencies continued to play an important part in asset allocation decisions, the stronger Yen being the major recent feature recently, largely for haven reasons. Emerging market currencies have had a particularly volatile period, showing some relative recovery over October from very weak levels. Government Bond holders saw mixed moves over the month-some more inspired by equity market turmoil rather than changed fundamentals.
At the end of the ten -month period, “mixed investment” unit trusts all showed negative performance, and only a small number of asset class sub sectors are showing a positive return. Source: Morningstar
Equities
Global Equities displayed a strong downwards trend over the month of October the FTSE ALL World Index falling 8.52% in dollar terms and now showing a negative return of 6.55% return since the beginning of the year. The UK broad and narrow market indices fell by 5.09% and 5.42% respectively over the month and have both underperformed world equities in sterling adjusted values from the end of 2017 by about 6%. The NASDAQ index, driven by technology companies, saw some of the steepest declines with many bell weather stocks showing significant falls. In sterling adjusted terms, America and Japan are the only two major markets now showing positive returns year to date The VIX index rose 75.84 % over the month, and at the current level of 22.05 is up about 115% from the year end.
UK Sectors
Sector volatility remained high during the month, influenced by both global factors e.g. commodity prices, tariffs, as well as corporate activity and a general risk aversion mood. Industrial stocks fell significantly while utilities and banks registered positive returns. Over the ten-month period, pharmaceuticals are outpacing the worse performing major sector, telecommunications by around 45%.
Fixed Interest
Gilt prices rose marginally over the month largely on haven buying but are still down 2.67% year to date in capital terms, the 10-year UK yield standing at 1.26% currently. Other ten-year yields closed the month at US 3.1%, Japan 0.13%, and Germany 0.3% respectively. UK corporate bonds rose 1% in price terms ending October on a yield of approximately 2.71%. Amongst the more speculative grades by contrast, yields rose, although US lower grade bonds are still one of the few sub-categories showing year to date price gains. Floating rate bond prices underperformed gilts over the month but are still showing positive year to date total returns. I continue to strongly recommend this asset class. See my recommendations in preference shares, convertibles, corporate bonds, floating rate bonds etc. A list of my top thirty income ideas (all yielding over 5%) from over 10 different asset classes is available.
Foreign Exchange
Amongst the major currencies, a stronger Yen was the monthly feature largely on safe haven buying as global equities tumbled. Currency adjusted, the FTSE World Equity Index is now outperforming the FTSE 100 by around 6% since the end of 2017 and about 20% since the June 2016 BREXIT vote.
Commodities
A generally weak month for commodities with the notable exception of gold, related precious metals, iron ore and sugar Over the year so far, oil, wheat and uranium (renegotiation of longer-term contracts) have shown the greatest gains.
Looking Forward
Over the coming months, geo-political events and Central Bank actions/statements will be accompanied by the continuation of the third quarter corporate reporting season, resulting in an abundance of stock moving events. With medium term expectation of rising bond yields, equity valuations and fund flow (both institutional and Central bank) dynamics will also be increasingly important areas of interest/concern, and it is expected that any “disappointments”, economic or corporate, will be severely punished.
US watchers will continue to speculate on the timing and number of interest rate hikes 2018/2019 and longer-term debt dynamics, as well as fleshing out the winners and losers from any tariff developments -a moving target! Third quarter figures (and accompanying statements) will be subject to even greater analysis after the buoyant first half year, and the growing list of headwinds. Additional discussions pertaining to Saudi Arabia, North Korea, Russia, Iran,Brazil, Venezuela, and Trump’s own position could precipitate volatility in equities, commodities and currencies, especially with the November mid-term elections just days away. In Japan market sentiment may be calmer after recent political and economic events although international events e.g. exchange rates and tariff developments will affect equity direction. The recent China/Japan summit may signal closer co-operation in the area. European investment mood will be tested by economic figures, EU Budget discussions, Italian bond spreads, German, Turkish and Spanish politics, and reaction to the migrant discussions. It must also be remembered that the QE bond buying is being wound down over coming months. Hard economic data and various sentiment/residential property indicators will continue to show that UK economic growth will be slower in 2018 compared to 2017, and any economic upgrade over current quarters appear extremely unlikely. Whichever Brexit outcome is agreed, it is highly likely that near term quarterly figures will be distorted. The current perceptions of either a move to a “softer” European exit, or a “no deal” will undoubtedly lead to pressure from many sides. Political tensions stay at elevated levels both within and across the major parties and considerable uncertainties still face individual companies and sectors. Industry, whether through trade organisations, international pressure e.g Japan, or directly e.g. Bae, BMW, Jaguar Land Rover, Toyota, Honda, Ryanair is becoming increasingly impatient, and vocal, and many London based financial companies are already “voting with their feet”.
On a valuation basis, most, but not all, conventional government fixed interest products continue to appear expensive against current economic forecasts and supply factors, and renewed bond price declines and further relative underperformance versus equities should be expected in the medium term, in my view. See my recent ‘iceberg’ illustration for an estimate of bond sensitivity, particularly acute for longer maturities. Price declines are eroding any small income returns leading to negative total returns in many cases. On the supply point there are increasing estimates of US bond issuance against a background of diminished QE and overseas buying. European bond purchases are also winding down. Apart from debt implications, corporate earnings growth and discounting purposes, remember that higher bond yields also are starting to play into the alternative asset argument. In the US for example the ten-year bond yield at 3.1%, is over 100 basis points higher than that on equities.
Equities appear more reasonably valued after recent price falls, but there are wide variations. Equity investors will be looking to see if superior earnings growth can compensate for higher interest rates in several areas. Helped in no small part by tax cuts, US companies have been showing earnings growth more than 20% so far this year, although the current quarter is widely expected to be the peak comparison period, and ‘misses’ are being severely punished e.g. Caterpillar,3M Facebook, General Electric,Kellogs, and Twitter. Accompanying corporate outlook statements are being carefully scrutinised.
Outside pure valuation measures, sentiment indicators and the VIX index are showing significant day to day variation, after the complacency of last year. The current level of 22.05 reflects the uncertain market mood, as does the relatively high put/call ratio.
In terms of current recommendations,
Depending on benchmark, and risk attitude, first considerations should be appropriate cash/hedging stance and the degree of asset diversification.
An increased weighting in absolute return, alternative income and other vehicles may be warranted as equity returns will become increasingly lower and more volatile and holding greater than usual cash balances may also be appropriate, including some outside sterling. Among major equity markets, the USA is one of the few areas where the ten-year bond yields more than the benchmark equity index. The equity selection should be very focussed. Certain equity valuations are rather high, especially on a PE basis (see quarterly), although not in “bubble” territory. A combination of sharper than expected interest rate increases with corporate earnings shocks would not be conducive to strong equity returns. Ongoing and fluid tariff discussions could additionally unsettle selected countries, sectors and individual stocks Harley Davidson, German car producers, American and Brazilian soy producers etc.
- UK warrants a neutral allocation but is starting to look good value on certain metrics. Ongoing Brexit debate, political stalemate and economic uncertainty could cause more sterling wobbles, which in turn could affect sector/size choices. I would expect to see more profits warnings (Countryside,Foxtons,H&M,BHS,Homebase,WPP,Computacentre- latest casualties) and extra due diligence in stock/fund selection is strongly advised.
- Within UK sectors, some of the higher yielding defensive plays e.g. Pharma, telco’s and utilities have attractions relative to certain cyclicals and many financials are showing confidence by dividend hikes and buy-backs etc. Over recent months, value stocks have been staging a long overdue recovery compared to growth stocks. Oil and gas majors may be worth holding despite the outperformance to date. Remember that the larger cap names such as Royal Dutch and BP will be better placed than some of the purer exploration plays in the event of a softer oil price. Mining stocks remain a strong hold, in my view (see my recent note for favoured large cap pooled play). Corporate activity, already apparent in the engineering (GKN), property (Hammerson), pharmaceutical (Glaxo, Shire?), packaging (Smurfit), retail (Sainsbury/Asda), leisure (Whitbread), media (Sky), mining (Randgold) is likely to increase in my view, although the Government has recently been expressing concern about overseas take-overs in certain strategic areas.
- Continental European equities continue to be preferred to those of USA, for reasons of valuation, and Central bank policy, although political developments in Italy, Spain and Turkey should be monitored closely. European investors may be advised to focus more on domestic, rather than export related themes. Look at underlying exposure of your funds carefully and remember that certain European and Japanese companies provide US exposure, without paying US prices. I have recently written on Japan, and I would continue to overweight this market, despite the large 2017 and 2018 to date outperformance. Smaller cap/ domestic focussed funds may outperform broader index averages e.g. JP Morgan Japanese Smaller Companies and Legg Mason.
- Alternative fixed interest vehicles, which continue to perform relatively well,in total return terms, against conventional government bonds, have attractions e.g. floating rate funds, preference shares, convertibles, for balanced, cautious accounts and energy/ emerging/speculative grade for higher risk. These remain my favoured plays within the fixed interest space. See recent note
- UK bank preference shares still look particularly attractive and could be considered as alternatives to the ordinary shares in some cases. If anything, recent sector “news” has highlighted the attractions of the sector.
- Alternative income, private equity and renewable funds have exhibited their defensive characteristics during the October market wobble and are still strongly recommended as part of a balanced portfolio. Most of these are already providing superior total returns to both gilts and equities so far this year, and indeed some produced positive returns during October. Reference could be made to the renewable funds (see my recent solar and wind power recommendations). Recent results from Green coat and Bluefield Solar reinforce my optimism for the sector. Selected infrastructure funds are also recommended for purchase after the recent Corbyn/Carillion inspired weakness (see note). The take-over of JLIF during the month highlights the value in the sector!
- Any new commitments to the commercial property sector should be more focussed on direct equities and investment trusts than unit trusts (see my recent note comparing open ended and closed ended funds), thus exploiting the discount and double discount features respectively as well as having liquidity and trading advantages. However, in general I would not overweight the sector, as along with residential property, I expect further price stagnation especially in London offices and retail developments e.g. (Hammerson, Intu). The outlook for some specialist sub sectors e.g. health, logistics, student, multi-let etc and property outside London/South-East, however, is currently more favourable. Investors should also consider some continental European property See my recent company note.
- I suggest a very selective approach to emerging equities and would continue to avoid bonds. Although the overall valuation for emerging market equities is relatively modest, there are large differences between individual countries. A mixture of high growth/high valuation e.g. India, Vietnam and value e.g. Russia could yield rewards and there are signs of funds moving back to South Africa on political change. Turkish assets seem likely to remain highly volatile in the short term and much of South America is either in a crisis mode g. Venezuela or embarking on new political era e.g. Mexico and Brazil. As highlighted in the quarterly, Chinese index weightings are expected to increase quite significantly over coming years and Saudi Arabia, is just being allowed into certain indices.
Full fourth quarter report will shortly be available to clients/subscribers and suggested portfolio strategy/individual recommendations are available. Ideas for a ten stock FTSE portfolio, model pooled fund portfolios (cautious, balanced adventurous, income), 30 stock income lists, hedging ideas and a list of shorter-term low risk/ high risk ideas can also be purchased, as well as bespoke portfolio construction/restructuring. Feel free to contact regarding any investment project.
Good luck with performance! Ken Baksh 01/10/2018
Ken has over 35 years of investment management experience, working for two major City institutions between 1976 and 2002.
Since then he has been engaged as a self-employed investment consultant. He has worked with investment trusts, unit trusts, pension funds, charities, Life Fund,hedge fund and private clients. Individual asset managed have included direct equities and bonds pooled vehicles currencies, derivatives and commodities.
Projects undertaken in a number of areas including asset allocation, risk control, performance measurement, marketing, individual company research, legacy portfolios and portfolio construction. He has a BSc(Mathematics/Statistics) and is a Fellow Member of the UK Society of Investment Professionals.
Phone 07747 114 691
Disclaimer
All stock recommendations and comments are the opinion of writer.
Investors should be cautious about all stock recommendations and should consider the source of any advice on stock selection. Various factors, including personal ownership, may influence or factor into a stock analysis or opinion.
All investors are advised to conduct their own independent research into individual stocks before making a purchase decision. In addition, investors are advised that past stock performance is not indicative of future price action.
You should be aware of the risks involved in stock investing, and you use the material contained herein at your own risk
The author may have historic or prospective positions in securities mentioned in the report.
The material on this website are provided for information purpose only.
Please contact Ken, (kenbaksh@btopenworld.com) for further information
Ken Baksh: August Investment Review….Stay with equities versus bonds….for the time being!
August 2018 Market Report
During the month to July 31 st, 2018, major equity markets displayed a stronger trend and the VIX index fell significantly, indicative of a preference for greater risk-taking. There continued to be an abundance of market moving news over the period whether at corporate, economic or political level.
The European Central Bank appeared to become more certain of removing QE over coming quarters but delaying any interest rate increase until 2019, while economic news was generally dull. Political events were not in short supply, and in Turkey for example, dramatically affected bond and currency markets. European leaders and policy makers are having an uncharacteristically active summer, with debates on US tariffs, immigration, Japanese trade pact and post Brexit implications just four of the more topical issues. US market watchers continued to grapple with ongoing tariff discussions, Federal Budget, Iranian nuclear/sanctions, NAFTA friction and North Korean meeting uncertainty as well as domestic issues. Economic data and corporate results so far have generally been above expectation. In the Far East, North and South Korea made faltering progress towards an agreement while China flexed its muscles in response to Trump’s trade and other demands and relaxed bank reserve requirement late in the month. Chinese economic growth slowed slightly while there was a little speculation that the Bank of Japan may tweak it’s QE programme. The UK reported mixed economic data with satisfactory developments on the government borrowing side, inflation slightly lower than expected, but poor relative GDP figures and deteriorating property sentiment, both residential and commercial. The data and ongoing Brexit confusion appear to be keeping the MPC in a wait and see mode regarding interest rates, although mathematically the’ hawks’ are gaining ground. An important day for MPC policy statements tomorrow (2nd August).
Aggregate world hard economic data continues to show steady expansion, excluding the UK, as confirmed by the IMF and the OECD with some forecasts of 2018 economic growth in the 3.3% to 3.6% area, a little lower than January forecasts. Fluctuating currencies continued to play an important part in asset allocation decisions, the stronger US dollar again being the major recent feature recently, although lagging the yen year to date. Government Bond holders saw modest price falls over the month. Of note was the large jump in the Japanese Government Bond Yield. Oil was the main commodity feature during the month, falling after the long rally seen so far this year. Tariffs, whether actual or rumoured, are continuing to bear on certain metals and soft commodities, the latter also responding to extreme weather conditions. The price of wheat for example has climbed nearly 30% so far this year.
At the end of the seven-month period, “mixed investment” unit trusts show a very small positive price performance, with technology and most overseas equity regions showing above average performance, and bonds, Asia-excl Japan and Emerging markets in negative territory. Source Trustnet:01/08/2018
Equities
Global Equities rose over the month the FTSE ALL World Index gaining 3.43% in dollar terms and now showing a positive return since the beginning of the year. The UK broad and narrow market indices lagged other major markets over the month in local terms and have underperformed in both local and sterling adjusted values from the end of 2017.Asia and emerging markets were the relative underperformers and declined in absolute terms while Europe jumped quite strongly, although the DAX Index is still down in absolute returns since the beginning of 2018. In sterling adjusted terms, America has jumped to the top of the leader board year to date, largely helped by the technology component (NASDAQ up 10.9%) and a recently strengthening dollar. The VIX index while still up about 30% from the year end, dropped 13% over the month, as “risk on “trades returned.
UK Sectors
Sector volatility picked up during the month, influenced by both global factors e.g. commodity prices, tariffs, as well as corporate activity and ex-dividend adjustments. Utility stocks fell over 4%, while pharmaceuticals gained 5.8 %, largely on encouraging results and lingering corporate activity. Over the seven-month period, pharmaceuticals are outpacing the worse performing major sector, telecommunications by nearly 33%.
Fixed Interest
Gilt prices fell marginally over the month and are now down 1.64% year to date in capital terms, the 10-year UK yield standing at 1.39% currently. Other ten-year yield closed the month at US 2.97% Japan, 0.06% and Germany 0.33% respectively. UK corporate bonds remained broadly unchanged, ending July on a yield of approximately 2.75%. Amongst the more speculative grades, emerging market bonds fell while US high yield rose, in price terms. Floating rate and convertible bond prices showed mixed performance over the month. See my recommendations in preference shares, convertibles, corporate bonds, floating rate bonds etc. A list of my top thirty income ideas (all yielding over 5%) from over 10 different asset classes is available.
Foreign Exchange
Amongst the major currencies, a stronger dollar was the major monthly feature rising largely on relative economic news. Sterling fell versus the dollar while rising against the Yen and Euro. Currency adjusted, the FTSE World Equity Index is now outperforming the FTSE 100 by over 3% since the end of 2017.Just over two years since the BREXIT vote, the FTSE has risen by about 19% compared with the 32% gain in sterling adjusted world indices.
Commodities
A generally weak month for commodities with the notable exception of some of the softs, the latter largely reflecting weather conditions! Over the year so far, oil seems to be stabilising over $70, while gold, falling on the month and year-to date languishes at around $1223 currently.
Looking Forward
Over the coming months, geo-political events and Central Bank actions/statements will continue be key market drivers while early second quarter company results will likely add some additional volatility. With medium term expectation of rising bond yields, equity valuations and fund flow dynamics will also be increasingly important areas of interest/concern.
US watchers will continue to speculate on the timing and number of interest rate hikes 2018/2019 and longer-term debt dynamics, as well as fleshing out the winners and losers from any tariff developments (steel, aluminium, EU, China,NAFTA)-a moving target! Additional discussions pertaining to North Korea, Russia, Iran, Venezuela, and Trump’s own position could precipitate volatility in equities, commodities and currencies. In Japan market sentiment is likely to be influenced by economic policy and Abe’s political rating. It will be interesting to see if there is any follow through from recent BoJ speculation regarding bond yield policy. Recent corporate governance initiatives e.g. non-executive directors, cross holdings, dividends are helping sentiment. European investment mood will be tested by economic figures (temporary slowdown or more sustained?), EU Budget discussions, Italian, Turkish and Spanish politics, and reaction to the migrant discussions. Hard economic data and various sentiment/residential property indicators will continue to show that UK economic growth will be slower in 2018 compared to 2017, and further down grades may appear as anecdotal second quarter figures trends are closely analysed. Brexit discussion have moved to a new level, discussions on the “custom union” being currently hotly debated. The current perception of a move to a “softer” European exit will inevitably lead to pressure from many sides. Political tensions stay at elevated levels both within and across the major parties and considerable uncertainties still face individual companies and sectors. Industry, whether through trade organizations or directly e.g. Bae, BMW, Honda, Ryanair is becoming increasingly impatient, and vocal, and many London based financial companies are already “voting with their feet”.
On a valuation basis, most, but not all, conventional government fixed interest products continue to appear expensive against current economic forecasts and supply factors, and renewed bond price declines and further relative underperformance versus equities should be expected in the medium term, in my view. See my recent ‘iceberg’ illustration for an estimate of bond sensitivity. Price declines are eroding any small income returns leading to negative total returns in many cases. On the supply point there are increasing estimates of US bond issuance against a background of diminished QE and overseas buying. European bond purchases are expected to wind down later this year.
Equities appear more reasonably valued, apart from some PE metrics, (especially in the US), but there are wide variations, and opportunities, in both broad asset classes. Equity investors will be looking to see if superior earnings growth can compensate for higher interest rates in several areas. Helped in no small part by tax cuts, US companies have been showing earnings growth more than 20% so far this year, although the current quarter is widely expected to be the peak comparison period, and ‘misses’ are being severely punished e.g. Facebook and Twitter. Corporate results from US, Europe and Japan have, on aggregate, been up to expectations over the current period.
Outside pure valuation measures, sentiment indicators and the VIX index are showing significant day to day variation, after the complacency of last year. The current level of 13.23 appears rather low in the context of potential banana skins.
In terms of current recommendations,
Continue to overweight equities relative to core government bonds, especially within Continental Europe and Japan. However, an increased weighting in absolute return and other vehicles may be warranted as equity returns will become increasingly lower and more volatile and holding greater than usual cash balances may also be appropriate. Among major equity markets, the USA is one of the few areas where the ten-year bond yields more than the benchmark equity index. The equity selection should be very focussed. Certain equity valuations are rather high, especially on a PE basis (see quarterly), although not in “bubble” territory. A combination of sharper than expected interest rate increases with corporate earnings shocks would not be conducive to strong equity returns. Ongoing and fluid tariff discussions could additionally unsettle selected countries, sectors and individual stocks Harley Davidson, German car producers, American and Brazilian soy producers etc.
- UK warrants a neutral allocation after the strong relative bounce over the quarter on the back of stronger oil price, sterling weakness and corporate activity. Ongoing Brexit debate, political stalemate and economic uncertainty could cause more sterling wobbles, which in turn could affect sector/size choices. I would expect to see more profits warnings (Countryside,Foxtons,H&M- latest casualties) and extra due diligence in stock/fund selection is strongly advised.
- Within UK sectors, some of the higher yielding defensive plays e.g. Pharma, telco’s and utilities have attractions relative to certain cyclicals and many financials are showing confidence by dividend hikes and buy-backs etc. Oil and gas majors may be worth holding despite the outperformance to date. Remember that the larger cap names such as Royal Dutch and BP will be better placed than some of the purer exploration plays in the event of a softer oil price. Mining stocks remain a strong hold, in my view (see my recent note for favoured large cap pooled play). Corporate activity, already apparent in the engineering (GKN), property (Hammerson), pharmaceutical (Glaxo, Shire?), packaging (Smurfit), retail (Sainsbury/Asda) is likely to increase in my view, although the Government has recently been expressing concern about overseas take-overs in certain strategic areas.
- Continental European equities continue to be preferred to those of USA, for reasons of valuation, and Central bank policy, although political developments in Italy, Spain and Turkey should be monitored closely. Improving economic data adds to my enthusiasm for selected European names, although European investors may be advised to focus more on domestic, rather than export related themes. Look at underlying exposure of your funds carefully. Remember that certain European and Japanese companies provide US exposure, without paying US prices. I have recently written on Japan, and I would continue to overweight this market, despite the large 2017 outperformance. Smaller cap/ domestic focussed funds may outperform broader index averages e.g. JP Morgan Japanese Smaller Companies and Legg Mason.
- Alternative fixed interest vehicles, which continue to perform relatively well against conventional government bonds, have attractions e.g. floating rate funds, preference shares, convertibles, for balanced, cautious accounts and energy/ emerging/speculative grade for higher risk. These remain my favoured plays within the fixed interest space. See recent note
- UK bank preference shares still look particularly attractive and could be considered as alternatives to the ordinary shares in some cases. If anything, recent sector “news” has highlighted the attractions of the sector.
- Alternative income, private equity and renewable funds have exhibited their defensive characteristics during recent equity market wobbles and are still recommended as part of a balanced portfolio. Many of these are already providing superior total returns to both gilts and equities so far this year. Reference could be made to the renewable funds (see my recent solar and wind power recommendations). Results from Greencoat on February 26nd and Bluefield Solar the following day reinforce my optimism for the sector. Selected infrastructure funds are also recommended for purchase after the recent Corbyn/Carillion inspired weakness (see note). The take-over of JLIF during the month highlights the value in the sector!
- Any new commitments to the commercial property sector should be more focussed on direct equities and investment trusts than unit trusts (see my recent note comparing open ended and closed ended funds), thus exploiting the discount and double discount features respectively as well as having liquidity and trading advantages. However, in general I would not overweight the sector, as along with residential property, I expect further price stagnation especially in London offices and retail developments e.g(Hammerson,Intu). The outlook for some specialist sub sectors and property outside London/South-East, however, is currently more favourable. Investors should also consider some continental European property See my recent company note.
- I suggest a selective approach to emerging equities and would currently avoid bonds. Although the overall valuation for emerging market equities is relatively modest, there are large differences between individual countries. A mixture of high growth/high valuation e.g. India, Vietnam and value e.g. Russia could yield rewards and there are signs of funds moving back to South Africa on political change. Turkish assets seem likely to remain highly volatile in the short term. As highlighted in the quarterly, Chinese index weightings are expected to increase quite significantly over coming years and Saudi Arabia, is just being allowed into certain indices.
Full third quarter report is available to clients/subscribers and suggested portfolio strategy/individual recommendations are available. Ideas for a ten stock FTSE portfolio, model pooled fund portfolios (cautious, balanced adventurous, income), 30 stock income lists, hedging ideas and a list of shorter term low risk/ high risk ideas can also be purchased, as well as bespoke portfolio construction/restructuring.
Good luck with performance! Ken Baksh 01/08/2018
Ken has over 35 years of investment management experience, working for two major City institutions between 1976 and 2002.
Since then he has been engaged as a self-employed investment consultant. He has worked with investment trusts, unit trusts, pension funds, charities, Life Fund,hedge fund and private clients. Individual asset managed have included direct equities and bonds pooled vehicles currencies, derivatives and commodities.
Projects undertaken in a number of areas including asset allocation, risk control, performance measurement, marketing, individual company research, legacy portfolios and portfolio construction. He has a BSc(Mathematics/Statistics) and is a Fellow Member of the UK Society of Investment Professionals.
Phone 07747 114 691
Disclaimer
All stock recommendations and comments are the opinion of writer.
Investors should be cautious about all stock recommendations and should consider the source of any advice on stock selection. Various factors, including personal ownership, may influence or factor into a stock analysis or opinion.
All investors are advised to conduct their own independent research into individual stocks before making a purchase decision. In addition, investors are advised that past stock performance is not indicative of future price action.
You should be aware of the risks involved in stock investing, and you use the material contained herein at your own risk
The author may have historic or prospective positions in securities mentioned in the report.
The material on this website are provided for information purpose only.
Please contact Ken, (kenbaksh@btopenworld.com) for further information
Corporate news review Monday 24 July 2017
Cranswick CWK – reports a positive start to the current financial year, with 3-month revenues to June 30 up 27%, while net debt of £18m is down £4m on this time last year. The board is confident in both outlook and continued long-term success and development of the business.
Earthport EPO – FY revenues are up c33% to £30.3m, with a adjusted EBITDA losses reduced by c65% to £2.4m Group cash balances at June 30 stood at £11.9m vs. £14.4m this time last year.
Mortice MORT – reports a 36.7% hike in FY revenues to $181.01m, with EBITDA up 114 % to $10.3 m. Following the pacing last December, Mortice reports net debt of $13.5m and balance sheet flexibility to pursue growth opportunities.
Ryanair RYA – Q1 results: CEO Michael O’Leary said the 55% increase in PAT of €397m was distorted by the absence of Easter in the prior year Q1. Highlights include: Traffic up 12% to 35m, load factor +2% to 96%, Av fare up 1% to €40.30, unit costs down 6%, €200m+ returned to shareholders via share buybacks and 397 B737’s in fleet at end of Q1.
Petra Diamonds PDL – issues a FY 2017 trading update and reports an 8% increase in FY production to 4.0 Mcts, with revenue up 11% to $477m. PDL reports year end cash of $205m, vs. $46.1m this time last year, and with Capex now in decline, debt levels will start to fall, expects to become free cashflow positive during FY 2018.
SThree STHR – reports encouraging H1 with accelerated momentum in Q2. Operating profits grew 26% year on year to £19.m, and the group reports a strong financial position with net cash of £5.2m, vs/ £4.4m debt this time last year. Says the macro-economic environment remains uncertain.
W.H. Ireland WHI – reports a 24% increase in H1 revenue to £14.9m, with pre-exceptional operating profits of £0.4m. WHI remains optimistic about the outlook for the second half of 2017 and the foundations for future growth into 2018.
Aerospace industry taxis out for take-off
As a part time aviation buff, I probably take more note than others of the comings and goings at the Paris Air Show. The mood this year was very upbeat, with European Civil Aerospace very much in the ascendency.
Although demand remains healthy, the very nature of the industry structure means there are a relative a small number of major manufacturers. This doesn’t mean the manufacturers can monopolise – far from it. Pricing remains competitive in civil aviation, and means that company boardrooms have a constant battle to maintain margin.
After ferrying new French President Macron to open the Paris Air Show, Airbus (EPA: AIR) announced a deal for 100 single-aisle A320neo planes in its first big move, a real coup considering the firm is constantly battling US giant Boeing for orders amid burgeoning competition from China. This will create years of work for the global workforce. It’s thought that the firm had firm commitments for some $11bn worth of planes.
Not to be outdone, Boeing (NYSE: BA) unveiled plans for a newer and bigger version of its 737 Max aircraft, more or less declaring war on Airbus in the market for narrow-body passenger jets.
Boeing announced firm orders for more than 45 planes worth some $5.4bn. Buyers included Ryanair, China’s Okay Airways and the Aviation Capital Group leasing company. Pledges for a further 83 planes could be worth as much as $9.3bn.
However, with huge order backlogs for both firms, new orders aren’t perhaps the all important share price drivers that some might think. Airbus has accused Boeing of discounting narrow-body prices to win back market share, putting downward pressure on its suppliers. In addition aviation technology group Safran (EPA: SAF) has accused Pratt & Whitney, owned by United Technologies Corp (NYSE: UTX) of discounting engines in competition against the General Electric / Safran LEAP engine.
While it can be argued that the CA aftermarket industry offers greater upside risk than the aircraft manufacturers themselves, the low oil price means it makes greater economic sense to keep older planes in service, providing a welcome boost for the industry future. This view is lent further credence by upbeat forecasts from several companies, including UTC, Aero Systems, GE and Honeywell, who all said their 2017 aftermarket sales could be better than expected. And with the number of new planes coming off warranty, this looks set to continue.
So in summary, investing in the aircraft manufacturers directly, or the aftermarket industry looks to be a fairly safe place for your money. Emerging markets continue to fulfil the aircraft sales quota, while maintaining planes out of warranty is looking increasingly lucrative for the future. It might even be said that rather than taxiing out to the runway, the industry is awaiting clearance for take-off!
Next Finds Horror On The High Street
Next NXT issues a stark warning about current profits and the level of both this years and next years sales. It failed to live up to its own expectations for 4th quarter sales in the face of what it describes as exceptional levels of uncertainty. Between the 1st November and 24th December sales fell by 0.4%. For the year to 24th December they fell by 1.1% even after taking into account new selling space. Even worse, end of season Sales were down by 7%. Group profit before tax for the full year to 17th January is now expected to be down by 3.6% and the downturn is expected to continue with a further warning that the company is budgeting for full price sales for 2017-18 to be down by a further 4.5%.
Ryanair RYA On the back of lower fares, December traffic surged by 20% to 9m passengers with load factor rising by 3% over a year ago. Even lower fares are promised for the coming summer.
Staffline Group STAF has experienced strong second half trading and expects full year profits to be announced on 25th January, will be in line.
Spectra Systems SPSY Expects that profits for the year to 31st December will significantly exceed expectations, with revenue also ahead.
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Will Brussels Ban Referendums
The Italian’s have done it. They have joined the growing list of countries whose peoples are sick and tired of their political establishments living lives completely divorced from the realities of the ordinary workaday world which most of us inhabit. The referendum has become the stock, shock weapon for taming the arrogant political elites of the world. The only question now is whether the bureaucrats of Brussels will try to find a way of banning them as being in breach of the Maastricht treaty or any other nonsensical reason they can think up for saving their tax free privileged lives and their dictatorial powers. Perhaps the usual catch all of health and safety would be appropriate.
As we forecast on Friday as a strong possibility, the Euro has fallen sharply this morning to over 1.20 to the pound bringing our currency speedily back to levels which our economic commentators and experts proclaimed would not be seen again for many a year. And this is only the beginning, The Italians now have to face an election with the possibility of Beppe Grillo as the winner.
Filtronic FTC traded strongly in the 6 months to the end of November and expects unaudited first half revenues will have reached £21.6m almost five times the total of £4.5m for the whole of 2016. The company cautions however that its success is based primarily on sales to one lead customer of its new ultra wide band antenna.
Ryanair RYA November traffic grew by 15% over last year, to 8.8m customers and load factor was up by another 2% to 95%. The airline advised customers to book their flights now for next summer
Purplebricks Group PURP claims to have caused a seismic shift in the UK estate agency market with its fixed fee revolution. Revenue for the 6 months to the end of October rose by 159%, exceeding the total for the whole of 2016. Gross profit for the half year surged from £4.1m to £10.2m and average revenue per customer rose by over 20%.
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Ryanair Beats The Competition
Ryanair Holdings RYA has more than halved its planned UK growth from 12% to 5% because of weaker sterling and slower economic growth. For the half year to 30th September profits rose by 7% on fares down by 10% and unit costs also down by 10%. Basic earnings per share for the half year rose by 15%. Some competitors have been unable to stand the competition and have closed bases and routes. The 18% fall in sterling has reduced full year guidance by 75m Euro.
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Hiscox HSX In the 9 months to 30th September material foreign exchange gains helped Hiscox to increase gross written premiums by 20.9%, compared to 14.3% in local currency. All segments put in a strong performance but Hiscox London Market and Hiscox RE continued to find trading conditions difficult and margins are evaporating in some areas.
Keywords Studios KWS Revenues and adjusted profit before tax will be significantly ahead of current market expectations for the year to 31st December, with adjusted profit before tax expected to be not less than 14m. Euro.
Fevertree Drinks FEVR has continued to perform strongly in the second half, particularly in the UK and anticipates that results for the year to 31st December will be materially ahead of current market expectations.
EKF Diagnostics EKF Revenue and adjusted EBITDA will exceed current market expectations for the year to the end of December. Early fourth quarter trading has been materially higher than budget and exceeds the previous revised figures.
Dignity DTY Underlying operating profit fell by 2.9% in the 39 weeks to the end of September, slightly ahead of expectations, as the number of deaths declined by 2.9% at the same time as the company lost market share.
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Wetherspoon Worried By High Debt Risks
Wetherspoon JDW First quarter like for like sales rose by 3.5% and total sales by 2.3%. Operating margins gowever jumped from last year’s 5.8% to 8.6% and 7% is anticipated for the full year. The rise in debt levels have become a cause for concern, indeed such a cause for concern that the company thought it necessary to reassure its major shareholders, whilst at the same time admitting that they have clearly involved significant risks. Over each of the last three years debt levels has risen substantially and now stands at another record of 3.47 times EBITDA
Persimmon PSN The housing boom has continued to go from strength to strength since half year results were announced on the 23rd August and private sales have risen by 19%. This continues the trend experienced earlier in the summer and Persimmon is now fully sold for the current year, with consumer confidence described as “resilient”.
Just Eat plc JE Strong growth led to a rise of 34% in third quarter like for like orders, with the UK producing a rise of 28%. Full year expectations have again been increased slightly
Ryanair RYA October traffic grew by 13% thanks to cheaper fares and the load factor rose by a further 1% to 95%.
Next NXT expected difficult trading in quarter three and got it, with full price sales down by 3.5% compared to -1.5% for the nine months to date. October did see a recovery with a significant improvement in sales. The range of full year sales guidance has been narrowed down from -1.75% to + 1.25% compared to the previous range of -2.5% to +2.5%
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McCarthy & Stone – Orders Down, Cancellations Up, Incentives Back.
McCarthy & Stone MCC is yet another housebuilder hoping that the warning signs of a pending slowdown in the housing market can be ignored and, like all the others it seems to be living in the hope that good times can and will go on for ever. For the year to the 31st August, its first as a public company, it enjoyed robust growth, with a revenue rise of 31%, legal completions up by 20% and £52m cash in the bank at the year end. It credits its success on its continued focus on operational excellence and concentrating its efforts on the demand for retirement homes. Its net average selling price rose by 8% because of what it claims was increased quality.
That is now history and the future presents a more gloomy prospect.
The order book is down some 12% on a year ago. Incentives are back and you have not heard much of those in the house building industry for many a year but in recent weeks their use has become necessary to ensure that the volume growth target can be met. Since the company’s last update as recently as the 29th June, weakness in the secondary housing market has become apparent. Perhaps worst of all, cancellations have risen and there is now a fear that continued market weakness could lead to a failure by the company to achieve its 15% planned growth target.
Eckoh plc ECK has been forced to issue a surprise profit warning as management appears to have bitten off more than it can chew, with the disastrous acquisition of Product Support Solutions which has a significant presence in the US and which has suffered from cost over runs on a large, complex, fixed price contract which is expected to lead to losses of £700,000 for that division alone. PSS is now to be closed down and as it was acquired less than a year ago in November 2015, questions must be raised about the effectiveness of Ecko’s management at the time and the due diligence it performed on PSS. Perhaps not surprisingly, today’s update remains silent on the point.
To add to the damage Eckoh has changed its pricing formula thereby leading to a fall in short and medium term margins. The result of all this, is that pre tax profits for the current year will be below market expectations and probably in line with last years results.
Ryanair RYA happily announces that its great success continues, with August traffic up by 11% or 16% on an annual rolling basis. Load factor again rose, by 1% and customers will be pleased to know that average fares over the next 6 months are expected to fall by some 10 – 12%
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Ryanair Succeeds Despite 1,000 Flight Cancellations
Ryan Air Holdings RYA suffered from over 1,000 flight cancellations in its first quarter, due to terrorism and strikes by French air traffic controllers, which have become such a problem that it has asked the EU to force the French to arbitrate instead of strike. Despite this, customer numbers rose by 11% but fares fell 10% to under 40 Euro leaving revenue for the quarter up by only 2%. Load factor did well with a further rise of 2 points to 94%.
Profit after tax for the quarter rose by 4% and basic earnings per share by 12%. 133 new routes will be opened in 2016. Ryanair is disappointed by Brexit but is unable to predict the effects, save that downside risks are felt to be greater.
Petra Diamonds PDL experienced further strong growth and record production for the year to 30th June but like for like rough diamond prices fell by 6% during the year leading to only a 1% rise in revenue. The prospects for 2017 look much better, with diamond prices having stabilised and production expected to rise by a further 25-30%, helping the company to achieve its 2018 targets, a year early.
Cranswick plc made a positive start to its year with strong volume growth of 12% in the 3 months to 30th June leading to an 11% rise in revenue. The company is selling its sandwich business with a turnover of £54m., for a consideration of £15m.
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