Home » Posts tagged 'rio tinto' (Page 2)

Tag Archives: rio tinto

Sovereign Metals #SVML – Malawi Ministry of Mining press release

Sovereign Metals #SVML – Malawi Ministry of Mining press release:

Rio Tinto Mining and Exploration Limited $40.4 million (approximately K29 billion) boost towards Sovereign Metals Limited Company.

Link to the full Malawi Government Press Release Rio

Blencowe Resources #BRES Acquires Nickel Sulphide Project in Uganda

Blencowe Acquires Right to Earn-into Highly Prospective Akelikongo Nickel Sulphide and Copper Project (“Project”) located near to existing Orom-Cross Project in Northern Uganda. Akelikongo further enhances emerging portfolio of Battery Metals Minerals

Highlights

·   Acquisition represents a very exciting opportunity for Blencowe to add a highly prospective nickel sulphide project to its existing world class Orom-Cross graphite project in Uganda

·    The Project was previously jointly owned by Rio Tinto and ASX listed Sipa Resources within a JV until May 2020.

·    US$15 million previously spent by JV partners on nickel and copper exploration.

·    19,000m of diamond, RC and RAB drilling completed.

·    Continuous mineralisation over 800m strike within massive sulphides already established.

·   Further airborne electromagnetic (EM) and downhole EM work has been planned to further test the identified anomalies as well as proximal targets.

·    Phase 1 work funded from existing cash resources.

·   Akelikongo is located approximately 100kms from the existing Orom-Cross graphite project which has potential for significant operational synergies.

·    Addition of a highly prospective nickel sulphide project into widely predicted and emerging nickel supply shortfalls is considered highly advantageous for Blencowe’s portfolio.

Strategy to Enhance Battery Metals Portfolio

Blencowe Resources Plc (LSE: BRES) is pleased to announce the addition of a highly prospective nickel sulphide and copper project (“Akelikongo” or the “Project”) to complement its existing high-grade graphite project in Uganda.

This Project underlines Blencowe’s ambition to become a diversified producer of high-quality source materials for the battery metals industry into the future, mining these within a safe jurisdiction from which to successfully develop long term resource assets.

Nickel is another critical input within the lithium-ion (“Li-ion”) battery, being an essential metal within the cathode.  The most common Li-ion batteries are a Nickel Cobalt Aluminium (NCA) which uses ~80% nickel, and the Nickel Manganese Cobalt (NMC) which uses ~33% nickel (however newer formulations of the NMC are using up to ~80% nickel).  A single Tesla battery uses approximately 30kgs of battery grade nickel in addition to 50kgs of graphite.

Although both oxide and sulphide ores can be converted into class 1 nickel for use in batteries, processing of sulphide ores, as found at Akelikongo, is technologically much easier and cheaper.  Nickel laterites (oxides) are the more dominant ore type in most recent major nickel discoveries and sulphides are much rarer.  Processing nickel laterite ore into battery grade nickel sulphate can be achieved using a high-pressure acid leach process (“HPAC”) but the economic feasibility of this remains questionable, as aside from high operating costs it comes with environmental concerns.  This makes nickel sulphide deposits increasingly more valuable ahead.

Cameron Pearce, Blencowe’s Executive Chairman commented;

“Akelikongo represents a very exciting and low cost entry for Blencowe to add a highly prospective nickel sulphide project to our existing advanced graphite project at Orom Cross.  Nickel is one of the most sought after metals at the moment and demand is set to soar even higher over the next decade.

The structure of the transaction means we are acquiring a nickel discovery with historic spend of US$15 million for just $1.5 million in deferred share consideration, instead ensuring our cash is deployed in advancing the asset and unlocking incremental value.

We believe graphite and nickel have many synergies at a higher level as both are key Li-ion battery metals and both will be in significant demand by battery producers for electric vehicles (“EVs”) moving forward, hence the opportunity to develop two such projects in tandem is very appealing.  Furthermore, we can see a number of synergies at the operational level based on the two projects being located near to one another.”

He added “The EV market is continuing its rapid expansion and we are seeing huge investments being made by substantial companies at various different levels within the full EV product cycle as they move to gain lost ground on the market leaders.  We have seen significant prices rise in all battery metals in 2021 and this is forecast to continue ahead.  We are also seeing a philosophical trend towards less reliance on China as the dominant source of most EV components, and a paradigm shift where manufacturers are prepared to offer incentives to move further up the supply chain to secure critical offtake. 

All this bodes well for Blencowe as we continue to position ourselves ahead as a major supplier of key battery metals”.

Akelikongo Project

Akelikongo is considered a highly prospective early-stage nickel sulphide exploration project located in Northern Uganda, near to the town of Kitgum which is the regional centre near to where Blencowe’s existing Orom Cross graphite project is located.  The two projects are highly synergistic in terms of their proximity and operations will be from the current Blencowe office in Kitgum.

Akelikongo has 112 sq km of granted exploration license and the project comes with considerable data from previous work conducted by the vendors within their Joint Venture.

A Joint Venture agreement was formed between Sipa Resources (“Sipa” or “Vendor”) and Rio Tinto in August 2018 where the latter company agreed to spend into the project, seeking a material nickel sulphide deposit.  In total nearly 19,000m of regional drilling has been conducted by the parties over the past five years.  The most prospective of all the work completed to date has been at Akelikongo, where three lenses at various depths have already been identified, with EM (electromagnetic) work and drilling both identifying massive sulphides.

Approximately US$15 million has been spent to date understanding the geology, geochemistry and the geophysics within the Akelikongo tenement and the local region, and then drilling the most prospective areas.  This work will help Blencowe to focus its own efforts into work programmes that it believes will deliver the most value ahead.

Other nickel targets were identified in the regional programme around Akelikongo but have yet to be explored in detail. Rio Tinto exited the JV in 2020 when the price of nickel was $12,000/tonne versus $24,000/tonne today. Blencowe believes the main target, Akelikongo, has sufficient exploration potential to become a nickel project in its own right and it will focus its efforts there to delineate higher grade and thicker intercepts of nickel and copper mineralisation going forward.

The regional exploration targets also warrant additional exploration.

Three nickel mineralised lenses have been identified based on detailed examination of cross-sections, long-sections, level plans and visualisation of data in 3-D mineral exploration software.  The mineralised lenses have an average grade of 0.37% Ni and 0.12% Cu and thicknesses range from several meters to 25 meters.

Shallow intercepts within the massive sulphides include:

·    41m at 0.5% Ni and 0.1% Cu, from 34m below surface

·    11m at 0.42% Ni and 0.12% Cu, from 38m

·    8m at 0.73% Ni and 0.12% Cu (includes 3m at 1.1% Ni), from 33m

·    22m at 0.36% Ni and 0.13% Cu, from surface

Forward Exploration Program

Blencowe will undertake the following exploration program at Akelikongo during 2022:

Phase One (1H 2022)

·    Down hole EM (“DHEM”) on the holes that have not been read;

·    EM at surface to the northwest of Akelikongo to trace the mineralisation down-plunge and along strike;

·    Airborne EM over regional targets identified;

Phase Two (2H 2022)

·    Diamond drilling along-strike and down-plunge of the identified mineralisation; and

·    Diamond drilling of targets identified from the DHEM and the EM surveys.

This program above fits neatly into the consideration milestones that have been set for Blencowe to earn into the project, both in terms of cost and timings.

Acquisition Structure

The Company will acquire 100% of the Project through an earn-in (“Earn-In”) over four separate milestones. The Earn-In will require the Company to spend a maximum of US$2.75m over 3 years on exploration on the Project and issue US$1.5m of consideration shares to the Vendors over four success related milestones in that period. The Vendors will retain a Net Smelter Royalty (“NSR”) of 1.5% on the Project subject to successful completion of all four milestones.

The Vendor has agreed to a 6-month lock up on the receipt of each tranche of consideration shares.

Milestone

Consideration

Cumulative

Earn in

1

US$250,000 spent on Project over first six months to earn first 20%.  If successful and Blencowe moves to Stage 2 thereafter, US$350,000 of consideration shares issued to Vendors.

20%

2

A further US$500,000 spent on the Project over the next six months to earn an additional 30%.  If Blencowe moves to Stage 3 thereafter, additional US$500,000 of consideration shares issued to Vendors.

50%

3

A further US$1m spent on the Project over the next 12 months to earn a further 30%.  If Blencowe moves to Stage 4 thereafter, additional US$650,000 of consideration shares issued to Vendors.

80%

4

A further US$1m spent on the Project over next 12 months to earn the remaining 20%.

100%

The consideration shares will be priced at the time the decision is made to progress the Earn-In through to the next milestone, with exploration results meriting further continuation.  On that basis, the Company believes it will mitigate shareholder dilution as any future issue of consideration shares will reflect the success achieved from exploration at the Project.

The Directors believe this is the best structure to develop an exploration project as it mitigates any requirement to commit cash and/or issue further consideration shares until the exploration program has proven to be successful at each phase. 

Funding

The work program of US$250,000 (~£175,000) for phase one at Akelikongo will be met from existing cash resources following the Company’s recent £2,000,000 capital raise in December 2021. The Company anticipates that the US$500,000 (~£350,000) work programme in phase two can be funded from the exercise of outstanding warrants, given this expenditure is only likely to be incurred based on exploration success in phase one. 

Project Synergies

Blencowe is already committed to developing one significant battery metals project in Uganda, being the Orom-Cross graphite project in the north-east of the country.  The Company believes that the demand for source metals/minerals used in the lithium-ion battery will rise exponentially over the next decade, and we have already seen signs of this in the past year via increased demand for lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper and graphite.  Forecasts for each of these metals show massive supply shortfalls emerging ahead which are anticipated to push prices even higher.

Adding a highly prospective nickel-copper sulphide project into the Blencowe emerging portfolio is therefore considered very advantageous and the Earn-In Agreement provides the Company with a staged approach to develop Akelikongo further; but only to pay tranches of shares as consideration to the vendor at each inflection point if and when the project fulfils set targets.  The majority of consideration shares are back-ended and will therefore only be paid if the project delivers exploration success ahead and if/when the Company elects to progress through each phase.  Blencowe would ultimately target the creation of a Ugandan production hub for two of the most critical battery metal products, however the Company recognises there is still further work required to achieve this goal.

Developing a second battery metal project in the near-environs to Orom-Cross also has major synergistic advantages in that the same in-country management and local relationships can work for both assets, and being located near to each other it will be possible to work them in tandem.

Blencowe has also ensured that the commitment to expenditure for Akelikongo takes into consideration the continued work programmes already in place for Orom-Cross to deliver its key targets so as not to compromise on the excellent progress made there to date.  The Pre-Feasibility Study for Orom-Cross is underway and expected to be completed by mid-year, and the Company expects to release an updated JORC Resource estimate in the near term.

 

For further information please contact:

 

  Blencowe Resources Plc

Sam Quinn

www.blencoweresourcesplc.com

Tel: +44 (0)1624 681 250

info@blencoweresourcesplc.com

Investor Relations

Sasha Sethi

Tel: +44 (0) 7891 677 441

sasha@flowcomms.com

Tavira Securities

Jonathan Evans

Tel: +44 (0)20 7100 5100

jonathan.evans@tavirasecurities.com

First Equity Limited

Jason Robertson

Tel: +44(0)20 7330 1833

jasonrobertson@firstequitylimited.com

Twitter https://twitter.com/BlencoweRes

LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/company/72382491/admin/

Background

Orom-Cross Graphite Project

Orom-Cross is a potential world class graphite project both by size and end-product quality, with a high component of more valuable larger coarse flakes within the deposit. A 21-year Mining Licence for the project was issued by the Ugandan Government in 2019 following extensive historical work on the deposit and Blencowe is moving through the Feasibility Study phase as it drives towards first production targeted for 2023.

Orom-Cross presents as a large, shallow open-pitable deposit, with a maiden JORC Indicated & Inferred Mineral Resource deposit of 16.3Mt @ 6.0% Total Graphite Content. Development of the resource is expected to benefit from a low strip ratio and free dig operations, thereby ensuring lower operating and capital costs.

Akelikongo Nickel Project

Akelikongo is a highly prospective nickel sulphide exploration project that has previously had considerable work completed by Rio Tinto and Sipa to establish three mineralised lenses to date.  It represents an opportunity for Blencowe to add further value through a targeted work programme that will seek to delineate higher grade and thicker intercepts of nickel.

Nickel sulphide deposits are rare and valuable and the prospect of further exploration success gives Blencowe suitable incentive to develop this asset under a structured earn-in agreement, whereby 100% of the asset can ultimately be acquired for US$1.5m, all payable in shares.

#SVML Sovereign Metals – Former Rio Tinto Executive Joins Sovereign Board

FORMER RIO TINTO EXECUTIVE JOINS SOVEREIGN BOARD

· Leading international mining executive, Mr Nigel Jones, appointed as Non-Executive Director of Sovereign Metals and Chairman of the ESG Committee

· Mr Jones has over 30 years of mining industry experience with 22 years in a number of senior roles at Rio Tinto Group

· Most recently, Mr Jones was Managing Director of Rio Tinto’s Simandou iron ore project, one of the world’s largest proposed mining devlopment

 

Sovereign Metals Limited (ASX:SVM; AIM:SVML) (the Company or Sovereign) is pleased to announce that highly experienced mining industry executive Mr Nigel Jones has been appointed as a Non-Executive Director of the Company.

From 2019 to 2021, Mr Jones was Managing Director of Rio Tinto Group’s (Rio Tinto) very large Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, west Africa. In this role, he was accountable for all aspects of the project’s development, including its complex environmental, social and governance (ESG) strategy. Such aspects included impacts on natural ecosystems, biodiversity, and community and government relations.

Mr Jones was also a member of the senior leadership team of the Energy and Minerals product group, which incorporated Rio Tinto’s titanium dioxide feedstock businesses in Canada and southern Africa. Prior roles in Rio Tinto included Head of Business Development, Head of Business Evaluation and Managing Director of the group’s Marine operations.

Sovereign’s Managing Director Dr Julian Stephens commented : “We are delighted to welcome Nigel to the board of Sovereign Metals. To attract an individual of Nigel’s calibre is not only testament to the commercial potential of Kasiya, but also the very favourable ESG characteristics of the project, in which we strive to be best-in-class. Nigel’s input into our ESG strategy will significantly benefit our pursuit to ensure that sustainability, diversity and community are core in everything we do.”

Nigel Jones commented : “I am delighted to be joining the team at this very exciting stage for the Company. Sovereign has very quickly already demonstrated the huge potential of its Kasiya rutile discovery in Malawi as it continues to explore and develop this asset that will be of strategic importance to the titanium feedstock industry. I very much look forward to being part of the Company’s growth as it moves towards becoming a standard-bearer for the importance of sustainable mining practices for a better future.”

 

ENQUIRIES

Dr Julian Stephens (Perth)
Managing Director

+61(8) 9322 6322

Sam Cordin (Perth)
+61(8) 9322 6322

Sapan Ghai (London)
+44 207 478 3900

 

 

Nominated Adviser on AIM

RFC Ambrian

Bhavesh Patel / Andrew Thomson

+44 20 3440 6800

Broker

Optiva Securities

+44 20 3137 1902

Daniel Ingrams

Mariela Jaho

Christian Dennis

Mining.com – Iron ore price extends rally as market focus shifts to output reports

Iron ore prices in Asia pushed higher on Monday as strong global steel demand buoyed sentiment, and as Chinese steel mills continued to ramp up output despite the government’s scrutiny of their compliance with stricter anti-pollution rules.

“Booming steel production continues to support the iron ore market,” analysts at ANZ told Reuters.

The metal price hit a 10-year high last week, with Benchmark 62% Fe fines imported into Northern China (CFR Qingdao) changing hands for $178.43 a tonne on Friday.

The most-traded September iron ore on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange ended the daytime trading session on Monday 0.8% higher at 1,060 yuan ($162.70) a tonne, rising for a third consecutive session.

“Increased scrutiny on emissions is forcing steel mills to use higher-grade iron ore, which is well compensated by strong steel margins,” ANZ analysts said.

Global steel demand will rise by 5.8% this year as economies recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, the World Steel Association said last week, though it painted a cautious outlook for 2022 as the impact of stimulus spending diminishes.

On the supply side Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP are due to report production data this week as well as give market outlooks.

Link here to view the full article

Mining Global Magazine – Brazil’s Vale to avoid driving down global iron ore market

CFO states that miner will place caution before capacity as it looks to press forward with its recovery from deadly 2019 dam catastrophe.

Brazilian miner Vale SA will place caution before capacity as it seeks to avoid driving down the iron ore market and presses forward with its recovery from a deadly dam break in 2019.

Speaking at an interview during the Reuters Commodity Trading Summit, Luciano Siani, chief financial officer for Vale, says that the miner is prepared to raise its capacity using safer and less polluting methods to 450 million tonnes in about five years – almost 50 percent more than forecast production for 2020.

“We are going to be responsible and we are not going to overflow the markets with iron ore,” he adds, asserting that the miner would not use full capacity if an expected surge in manufacturing-driven Asian demand does not materialise.

“The intent is not to oversupply the markets towards 450 (million tonnes). It is to have the capacity available to meet the market if the need be,” Siani explains.

As the only global iron ore miner with sizeable plans to expand capacity, Vale’s production decisions affect prices of steel products around the world. Its path to growth includes new mines in the north of Brazil, as well as reviving production at some of its older mines in the country’s traditional mining heartland of Minas Gerais.

In the third quarter of this year, the miner briefly recovered its status as top global producer after raising output slightly above its Australian competitor, Rio Tinto, the Reuters report points out….

Link here for the full Mining Global news article

China demand pushes iron ore back above $90 a tonne – Financial Times

Iron ore, the steelmaking commodity that is the main source of income for global miners BHP, Rio Tinto and Vale, broke above $90 a tonne this week for the first time since mid-March, supported by strong demand from China.

The country is the world’s biggest producer of steel and demand for the metal, widely used in construction, has been steadily increasing since Beijing began in late March to ease nationwide lockdowns put in place to contain the spread of coronavirus.

Government data released on Friday showed industrial output in China recovering in April after collapsing during the most intense phase of the outbreak.

Daily crude steel production at big plants in China increased 13 per cent to 2.1m tonnes in the first 10 days of May — the highest level of activity this year, according to brokerage Argonaut Securities.

“The rising steel production didn’t result in an oversupply and price depression as signalled by markets. Rather, steel inventory has quickly declined and steel prices gradually increased,” said Helen Lau, an analyst at Argonaut.

For the week to May 15, total steel inventory in China dropped 34 per cent to 17m tonnes, led by a 37 per cent decline in stocks of steel reinforcement bars, a product widely used in the construction industry.

At the same time as demand in China has been rising, exports from Brazil, a key producer, have stalled because of lower shipments from Vale’s operations in the Amazon rainforest. The cause of the decline is unclear, but analysts said it could be linked to a rising number of Covid-19 cases in the state of Para.

“With China’s crude steel output now at a higher level than a year ago, demand for iron ore is outpacing shipment arrivals. As a result, China’s iron ore port inventories are gradually eroding,” analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a report.

Mike Henry, the chief executive of BHP, told investors this week that if China were to avoid a second wave of Covid-19 infections he expected raw steel production in the country to rise this year, offsetting double-digit declines in the rest of the world. The country accounts for more than 50 per cent of global steel production.

Benchmark ore with an iron ore content of 62 per cent was priced at $93.25 a tonne on Friday, according to an assessment by S&P Global Platts, up 5.4 per cent on the week.

At that price, BHP, Rio and Vale are generating billions of dollars of cash from their iron ore mines.

Analysts said reports China might impose import restrictions on Australian iron ore in retaliation for Canberra’s call for an inquiry into the origins of Covid-19, were probably off the mark.

Beijing has suspended imports of red meat from four Australian abattoirs and is planning to impose punitive tariffs on barley shipments.

“China relies on Australia for over 60 per cent of iron ore imports,” said Glyn Lawcock, analyst at UBS. “With the market tight, Chinese port stocks declining, and Brazilian exports down 12 per cent year to date, options today appear limited.”

FT – Iron ore outlook rests on Vale’s tricky rebound

Iron ore outlook rests on Vale’s tricky rebound

by Neil Hume, Natural Resources Editor. Jan 16th 2020

Shareholders are revelling in bumper payouts, but prices could fade down the track.

Shareholders in Rio Tinto are likely to be celebrating another bumper payout when the miner reports annual results next month. The Anglo-Australian group — along with rivals BHP and Brazil’s Vale — is generating bucket loads of cash from the continued strength of iron ore.

Boosted by strong demand from China and a string of supply disruptions the key steelmaking ingredient rose 30 per cent last year and averaged $90 a tonne.

For big producers such as Rio that can mine the material for as little as $15 a tonne, that means windfall profits — and sturdy dividends for investors. Deutsche Bank reckons Rio generated close to $10bn of free cash flow last year.

Whether it can match that performance in 2020 will depend on the direction of iron ore prices.

The good news for its shareholders is that prices have remained elevated over the past month, trading at more than $90 a tonne as Chinese steelmakers have restocked ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday that starts on January 25, and the start of the spring construction season.

The risk of weather disruptions in the Pilbara — Australia’s main iron ore-producing region — has also kept prices firm, according to traders. A sharp fall in exports from Brazil because of lower shipments from Vale, the world’s biggest iron ore company, has helped too.

One final boost: the decision of the US Treasury to drop the designation of China as a currency manipulator. This has lifted the renminbi, making cargoes of iron ore cheaper for Chinese mills to buy in the seaborne market.

Still, most analysts expect prices to drift lower over the course of the year, as supply picks up and production in China remains broadly flat at close to 1bn tonnes.

Demand is likely to fade after China’s new year holiday, according to BMO Capital Markets. It reckons restocking has finished, pointing to a slowdown in activity at the main iron ore port in Hebei, China’s leading steelmaking province.

Ultimately, the direction of prices will hinge on Vale and whether it can hit targets for production.

The company was forced to cut more than 70m tonnes of capacity last year after a dam disaster at one of its mines in the state of Minas Gerais in which more than 250 people died.

Some of the supply has come back online and this year Vale expects to produce between 340m and 355m tonnes of iron ore, up about 40m from last year. However, no one is sure if the Brazilian miner can actually do that. Some of the shuttered output uses dams that have to be decommissioned before production can resume, for example.

If Vale hits guidance JPMorgan estimates the iron ore market could be in surplus, with supply outstripping demand by 28m tonnes. If it does not, then Rio, its shareholders and other big producers could be celebrating another year of elevated prices.

Link here for full FT article

The squeeze is also seeing some recommissioning activities among previously mothballed iron ore mines.

In NE Brazil, a jv between AIM listed Cadence Minerals #KDNC and Singapore based commodities group IndoSino Pte Ltd will see the former Anglo American (AAL) and Cliffs Natural Resources owned Amapá iron ore project recommissioned.

With key rail concessions granted to Cadence for shipping in December, this large-scale iron open pit ore mine with associated rail, port and beneficiation facilities is expected to produce 5.3 million tonnes of iron ore by 2024.

Iron ore price firm after BHP confirms lower exports – Financial Times

Price surge of steelmaking ingredient has created a huge cash windfall for big producers

The price of iron ore remained above $120 a tonne on Wednesday after BHP Group, one of the world’s biggest suppliers of the steelmaking ingredient, revealed annual exports had declined for the first time this century.

In a trading update, the Anglo-Australian miner said it had shipped 270.5m tonnes of iron ore in the 12-months to June, down from 273.2m tonnes in 2018 — the first year-on-year decline in sales since at least 2000. Supply disruptions in Australia and Brazil and record steel production in China has seen the price of iron ore climb by almost 67 per cent this year to more than $120 a tonne, a level it last traded at in 2019.

The price surge has created a huge cash windfall for big producers like BHP and Rio, which at current prices are making more than $100 on every tonne of the commodity they ship to China, the world’s biggest consumers.

Both companies are tipped to announce big dividends when the announce results next month. At the start of its 2018/19 fiscal year, BHP expected to ship between 287m and 283m tonnes of iron ore but was forced to lower guidance after its mines in Western Australian were hit by a tropical cyclone and a major train derailment.

Rival Australian producer Rio has also suffered disruptions and has lowered its production forecasts twice since January. It expects to ship between 320m-330m tonnes of iron ore in 2019, down from 338.2m in 2018. Brazil’s Vale is also shipping less ore following a deadly dam disaster in January.

With BHP and Vale planning major maintenance programmes in September and October respectively, analysts reckon the iron ore market will remain tight. “BHP are expecting a modest production increase of 1 per cent to 6 per cent in 2020 [273m to 286m)”, said Paul Gait, an analyst at Bernstein Research.

“A planned maintenance programme . . . aimed at improving productivity has temporarily put a pause on any potential volume growth in the system.” In a report issued this week, analysts at Deutsche Bank said iron ore prices would not “break” sustainably below the $100 a tonne level until the first half of next year and then remain around $80 until 2021.

“One of the key takeaways from our [recent] China trip regarded clear evidence of a positive trajectory for infrastructure investment activity in the second half of the year, and only a modest deceleration in new [housing] starts during the same timeframe,” wrote analyst Nick Snowdon. “This points to a relatively healthy demand setting for iron ore in the second half of the year.”

In its trading update, BHP said it was likely to record $600m of exceptional items or charges to cover the costs of decommissioning a tailings dam in Brazil and redundancy costs. The company also flagged a $1bn hit from the impact of declining copper grades and the train derailment.

Mining Journal – Iron ore price to incentivise swing production, says BMO

Current iron ore prices of US$100/tonne should be enough to spark activation of about 60 million tonnes of swing production to “balance the market”, according to BMO, with perhaps 40Mt of that coming from China.

BMO director, equity research, metals & mining – international, Edward Sterck, said a restart of Vale’s stalled 30Mtpa Brucutu mine in Brazil could restore 15Mt of production in the second half of this year. But there was no sign of a restart yet.

Global iron ore production has been impacted in the first half of 2019 by Vale’s dam failure at Brumadinho in Brazil, and the continuing legal issues around Brucutu, as well as weather and fire disruptions affecting Rio Tinto and BHP in Western Australia. BMO says shipping data suggests Rio Tinto and BHP are back on track, but Vale continues to struggle.

A need for 60Mt of swing production – US$6 billion of iron ore sales – could open up opportunities for Australian and other producers, though Sterck suggested to Mining Journal that higher production and earnings were “already baked in” to valuations.

“The iron ore price remains above our forecasts, suggesting upside potential to estimates,” he said.

“The high price should outweigh the supply disruption/shortfall [in the first half].”

The Age: Even if it all turns sour, 2019 is already a vintage year for iron ore

The Age 30th May 2019

On Tuesday the market watched in awe as the iron ore price was elevated to eye watering levels of $US108. By Wednesday, fresh speculation over marginal additions to supply caused the Chinese iron ore futures to wobble – the price dropped 2.3 per cent.

When a commodity has soared to a five-year high in a matter of months, wild swings are not surprising.

But make no mistake 2019 will go down in history as a vintage year for iron ore.

The rally that analysts find hard to predict.
The rally that analysts find hard to predict.

Even if the price dropped significantly in the second half of this calendar year to the $US80 levels it traded at towards the end of last year, the high prices for the first five months of this year would have already bolstered the profitability of the major Australian producers and the coffers of the federal and West Australian governments.

We haven’t seen iron ore prices at this level since 2014.

If the current spot price was factored into 2020 financial year earnings for our major miners, their profits would spike 60 per cent, according to analysts.

And a year at these prices would add about $4 billion to federal government coffers.

Already this calendar year Rio shares have risen 38 per cent, Fortescue stock has doubled in price, and BHP’s shares are 12 per cent higher.

How much is left in the tank for the iron ore price run and how long it can be sustained at levels above $US100 has left forecasters at a loss; they have had to revisit their assumptions as the price trajectory regularly leapfrogs over their targeted iron ore prices.

Back in February, CBA commodities analyst Vivek Dhar predicted the iron ore price could hit $US100 – a view that at the time was seen by some as outlandish.

Three months on and the product that feeds Chinese steel mills is in even higher demand, Chinese stockpiles are at a dangerously low level, supply in the first three months of the year from Australian producers was curtailed by weather events and most importantly the production issues that have plagued Brazil are not not getting any better.

Since the mine tailings dam burst in Brazil in January, the ripple effect and the actions of regulators and courts have forced suspensions of various operations – including dams and mines.

It has resulted in a roller-coaster ride for the iron ore price.

In May, Brazil’s major producer, Vale, told prosecutors in the state of Minas Gerais that a dam was at risk of rupturing at its Gongo Soco mine, about 60 kilometres from where its Brumadinho dam collapsed in January, killing more than 230 people.

The Brumadinho dam disaster and subsequent mine and dam closures in Brazil had prompted Vale, the world’s biggest iron ore miner, to slash its iron ore sales estimate for this year.

Hopes that Vale could increase its shipments were dashed early in May after a court ordered a halt to its operations at its Brucutu iron ore mining complex, reversing a lower court decision that had allowed the mines’ activities to resume.

Analysts have generally underestimated the lengthy regulatory fallout and the repercussions associated with industrial disasters. This time is no different.

And they certainly misread the strength of China’s steel output this year – which, on an annualised basis, topped 1 billion metric tonnes.

Few have been willing to formally predict how long this iron ore boom will continue because it is not a cyclical one.

Analysts have misread the strength of China’s steel output this year.
Analysts have misread the strength of China’s steel output this year.CREDIT:QILAI SHEN

However, the general consensus is that markets should not factor in the resumption of much additional supply from Vale this year.

And this should put a floor under the price.

Some new supply (from marginal producers in India and China) may come on stream later this year – but new entrants will also be waiting to hear about the length of supply disruptions in Brazil.

Currently there are a raft of estimates for 2019 at between $US90 and $US95 and most projections fall back to $US80 levels in 2020.

For investors with iron ore stocks, 2019 is the year they hit the jackpot.

I would like to receive Brand Communications updates and news...
Free Stock Updates & News
I agree to have my personal information transfered to MailChimp ( more information )
Join over 3.000 visitors who are receiving our newsletter and learn how to optimize your blog for search engines, find free traffic, and monetize your website.
We hate spam. Your email address will not be sold or shared with anyone else.