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Oil play, 5.5% yield (income paid quarterly),8% discount to assets, BREXIT currency hedge..what more do you want?
Black Rock Commodities Income Investment Trust –ISIN GB00B0N8MF98-BRCI
Oil remains one of the strongest major commodities this year and despite recent exemptions from Iranian sanctions, looks likely to stay well supported.
The major companies themselves Royal Dutch #RDSB, BP #BP, Total, Eni, Norsk Hydro etc have been major beneficiaries of the stronger spot price and, with greater capital discipline, have rebuilt balance sheets and engaged in shareholder friendly actions whether dividend increases or share buy-backs.
One way of accessing this sector is through the Black Rock Commodities Income Investment Trust.
The object of this investment trust is to achieve an annual dividend target, (currently 4p), and over the long term, capital growth, by investing primarily in securities of companies operating in the mining and energy sector.
- The fund predominantly invests in large quoted equities, the split between oil and mining being approximately oil, majors plus exploration/production 42%, and mining 56%, as at end September 2018.
- Underlying major mining companies, have for the large part responded to the historic weaker trend in resource prices, maintaining balance sheet discipline and adjusting their cost bases. There have been some examples of spectacular self-help stories e.g. Glencore and Anglo-American Mining.
- Recent mining conferences have highlighted the need for increased use of Lithium, Cobalt, Nickel and Copper relating to Electronic Vehicles.BRCI has been building exposure to these elements over the last couple of years. For example, Glencore (5.2% of assets) is now one of the leading global suppliers of Cobalt, a vital component for rechargeable batteries.
- Rising economic growth projections, supply constraints and a changing OPEC stance have significantly helped the prospects of the major oil companies held. Royal Dutch and BP have both recently announced good third quarter figures and both have annual dividend yields near 6%. Statoil and Total also confirmed the more favourable trend for oil majors.
- As at End September 2018, the Fund ‘s major holdings featured BHP (8.9%), Royal Dutch (6.7%) Rio Tinto (6.2%), First Quantum (5.7%), Glencore (5.2%), Exxon (4.2%), and Teck Resources (4. 5%). The top ten holdings represented over 55% of the total portfolio, a relatively concentrated stance.
- The global nature of these companies provides exposure to non-sterling currencies, especially the US dollar. This can benefit both capital and income when sterling is on a weaker trend. In this regard, the instrument may be seen partially as a no-deal BREXIT hedge.
- On a TECHNICAL NOTE, it should be noted that energy and material stocks represent about 27% and 24% of the FTSE100 index and the FT All-Share index respectively. If using these as benchmarks, the weighting in these sectors can materially affect the relative performance of UK active and passive funds.
- As well as targeting financially strong dividend paying equities the company also employs option writing strategies and an element of gearing, currently near 10%, to further improve the sources of income.
- On an annual yield, over 5.5%, (payable quarterly), this trust represents a high-income longer-term value play, but investors should be aware of the volatility of the underlying sector-maybe another reason to adopt a pooled approach. The trust currently trades at a current discount to net assets of near 8%, near the ten year’s low, compared with the premium on which it traded for most 2008-2016 period (see graph below). The company operates a discount management procedure from time to time.
www.trustnet.com/factsheets/t/rw98/blackrock-commodities-income-it
Ken Baksh
Ken has over 35 years of investment management experience, working for two major City institutions between 1976 and 2002.
Since then he has been engaged as a self-employed investment consultant. He has worked with investment trusts, unit trusts, pension funds, charities, Life Fund,hedge fund and private clients. Individual asset managed have included direct equities and bonds pooled vehicles currencies, derivatives and commodities.
Projects undertaken in a number of areas including asset allocation, risk control, performance measurement, marketing, individual company research, legacy portfolios and portfolio construction. He has a BSc(Mathematics/Statistics) and is a Fellow Member of the UK Society of Investment Professionals.
Disclaimer
All stock recommendations and comments are the opinion of writer.
Investors should be cautious about all stock recommendations and should consider the source of any advice on stock selection. Various factors, including personal ownership, may influence or factor into a stock analysis or opinion.
All investors are advised to conduct their own independent research into individual stocks before making a purchase decision. In addition, investors are advised that past stock performance is not indicative of future price action.
You should be aware of the risks involved in stock investing, and you use the material contained herein at your own risk
The author may have historic or prospective positions in securities mentioned in the report.
The material on this website are provided for information purpose only.
Please contact Ken, (kenbaksh@btopenworld.com) for further information
Next Celebrates Falling Profits With a Special Dividend
Next NXT Celebrates its weak trading performance by announcing a special dividend of 45p per share to be paid on the 1st August. Total sales for the 13 weeks to to 29th April fell by 3% as mayhem on the high street continued. On a like for like basis, new space which added 1.6% to sales, made the like for like fall look even worse, at 4.6%. Profit before tax is expected to get worse as the year progresses with the best expectation now being for a fall of 6.4% compared to the previous hope for a fall of at best, only 1.3%.
Morrisons W. MRW performed well in the 13 weeks to the 30th April as it became more popular with customers attracted by lower prices. Like for like volume became more positive and expectations for the full year remain unchanged.
Royal Dutch Shell RDSA enjoyed a strong first quarter as debt was reduced and the dividend ( unchanged) was covered for the third consecutive quarter. Industry conditions in chemicals became stronger, total bpf oil equivalent per day rose by 2%, realised prices for global liquids rose by 64% and for natural gas by 10%. In come before tax rose from a loss of $642m in the same quarter last year to a profit of over $ 3 billion. However impacts are expected in the 2nd quarter from lower gas volumes and upstream earnings will suffer from divestments and lower production in the Netherlands.
Ladbroke Coral LCL expects full year results will be inline. From st January to 23rd. April group net revenue rose by 5% after falls in retail net revenue of 2% in the UK and 3% in Europe. Digital net revenue helped to save the day with a rise of 22%.
esure Group ESUR has made a strong and better than expected start to the year with a rise in gross written premiums of 29% between the 1st January and the 23rd April. Moror led the way with a rise of 29%.
G4S plc GFS enjoyed a strong start to the year with revenues rising by 8.9% at constant exchange rates in the three months to the 31st March. Developed markets showed double digit organic growth whilst emerging markets remained flat.
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Brand CEO Alan Green talks markets, Watchstone Grp (WTG), Shell (RDSB) & BP (BP) on TipTV
Brand CEO Alan Green discusses the markets, Watchstone Grp (WTG), Shell (RDSB) & BP (BP) with Zak Mir on TipTV.
Weir Worse But Hopeful
Weir Group WEI continued to worsen in the third quarter to the 31st October tough trading conditions every every division in decline. Minerals fell by 7%, Oil & gas by 10%, Flow Control by 4% and Continuing Operations by 7%, whether on a reported or like for like basis. Full year profits will be slightly lower than expectations but they reflect tough Middle East conditions and what Weir believes is the nadir for the North American Oil % Gas market and at least there were some signs beginning to emerge that core markets had started to improve.
Royal Dutch Shell RDSA Third quarter income rose by 124% over 2015, as the quarter produced a strong operational and cost performance. Lower oil prices however still presented a challenge. Basic earnings rose by 119% and return on average capital employed more than tripled to 3.8%. Oil and gas production was 25% up on 2015 quarter 3.
BP plc BP. Third quarter profits rose by well over 30% to $933 billion but these are still only half of what they were a year ago, as the results are impacted by weaker prices and margins. Brent oil prices are down by over 10% compared the third quarter of 2015 and high stock levels have caused a steep fall in refining margins. Another sign of how bad things really are is BP’s claim that a fall of well over a third in underlying pre tax cost replacement profits compared again to 2015 quarter 3, is a resilient performance.
Go-ahead Group GOG enjoyed robust first quarter trading with no change in expectations for the full year.
Money Supermarket.com MONY is on track for a record year with a rise of 12% in third quarter revenue, strong growth in insurance, which is continuing to acclerate and impressive growth in energy.
Firestone Diamonds FDI turned last years loss of US10.4m into a profit of $13.6m for the year to the end of June and did so without having produced a single diamond. Production started last month and the first diamond sales are expected to take place in January 2017. The project is expected to be 85% complete by the year end and the company claims that it is now well on the way to becoming a one million carat per year producer. The share price has risen from 15p last November to this mornings 56p.
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Sainsbury’s Doing Well in Financial Services – The Problem Is Food
J. Sainsbury SBRY has been forced to cut its final dividend, even if only by a small amount,0.1p or 1.2%, making a total cut for the year of of 8.3%. It claims a strong performance in clothing, general merchandise and financial services which, coming from a food store, indicates a problem or two with the food side of the business. Group sales for the full year fell by 1.1% and like for like by 0.9%. Underlying profit before tax slumped by 13.8% and basic earnings per share were down by 8.3%
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Ryanair RYA hit new records in April with traffic growing by 10% to 9.9 million and customer load factor up by 2% points to 93% and all achieved despite strikes by air traffic controllers in a number of European countries. Annual traffic growth over the past 12 months now stands at 12%. What was that Willie Walsh was saying about weak markets only a few days ago – test – how many can tell me accurately and now what his airline’s name is, this year.
SHELL RDSA First quarter cash flow nearly disappeared with a fall of 91%, whilst first quarter income was down by 89% as the oil crisis savaged the company. Shell fought back with cost cuts and with strong results from Downstream and Integrated Gas. The combination with BG also got off to a strong start.
JD Wetherspoon JDW saw third quarter like for like sales grow by 3.8% and total sales up by 5.5%. Nineteen pubs have been closed since the start of the financial year of which only 8 have been sold but 16 new openings are expected for the year. The full year outcome is expected to be reasonable.
Direct Line DLG claims another quarter of top line growth on which it is aiming to build fir the rest of 2016. First quarter gross written premiums rose by 4.2% with Motor & Home being singled out as strong. despite the no of policies in force has actually fallen over the past 12 months, with only Motor and Commercial showing a rise.
Paddy Power Betfair PPB The merged group has got off to a good start with revenue fior the 3 months to the end of March up by 16% and operating profit by 36%. All 4 of its brands are trading well.
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Alan Green talks UKOG, TYM, RDSB, BARC on the VOX Markets podcast
Brand CEO Alan Green talks UK Oil & Gas (UKOG), Tertiary Minerals (TYM), Royal Dutch Shell (RDSB) & Barclays (BARC) with Justin Waite on the VOX Markets podcast. The interview starts 5 minutes 30 seconds in. Link here to listen.
Alan Green discusses Scholium Group (SCHO), BHP Billiton (BLT) & Shell (RDSB) on the ADVFN podcast
Alan Green discusses Scholium Group (SCHO), BHP Billiton (BHP) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDSB) with Justin Waite on the ADVFN podcast. Click here for the podcast – the interview with Alan starts approx 1.5 minutes in.