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Plus 500 (PLUS) in fine shape – looks set to close the valuation gap in the coming months says VectorVest.
Plus500 Ltd, (PLUS.L), formerly Investsoft Ltd., is an Israel-based company, which develops and operates online trading platforms for retail customers to trade contracts for difference (CFDs) internationally over more than 1,700 different underlying global financial instruments, comprising equities, exchange traded funds (ETF), foreign exchange, indices and commodities. The Company offers its service to retail customers in more than 50 countries via platforms across multiple internet and mobile operating systems.
On Wednesday April 26th 2017, PLUS published a trading update for the three months ended 31st March 2017. The Company reported a significant improvement in profitability and quality of earnings, with an EBITDA margin of 59% coming in ahead of market expectations, on quarterly revenues of $77.5m. PLUS also reported strong operational KPIs, with record active customers during the period, up 6% on Q1 2016. The average user acquisition cost decreased by 31% vs. Q1 2016, and the board believes that this overall performance is consistent with current market expectations for the full year. CEO Asaf Elimelech said the Company has “started 2017 positively; we are confident we can continue to expand and enhance our competitive position whilst successfully incorporating regulatory changes with the minimum of disruption. Our strategy is supported by our strong financial position and cash generative business model, enabling us to deliver good shareholder returns despite short term regulatory uncertainty.”
PLUS started appearing across key VectorVest metrics in December 2016, when the shares traded around 320p. While the well-documented regulatory challenges with financial authorities around the globe led to a RS (Relative Safety) rating of just 0.75 – poor on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00, the VST (VST-Vector) indicator, (the master indicator for ranking every stock in the VectorVest database), rates PLUS at 1.32, which is very good on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. VST is computed from the square root of a weighted sum of the squares of RV (Relative Value), RS (Relative Safety), and RT (Relative Timing). Stocks with the highest VST ratings have the best combinations of Value, Safety and Timing. VectorVest also currently records a current Value of 584p per share for PLUS, indicating that it is undervalued at its current 468p.
The chart of PLUS is shown above over a time span of 3 years and 5 months. As you can see the share has found support at around the 400p level. This horizontal level has been in place since April 2014. In this period the company has increased earnings per share (blue line study in the wondow below price) by 3X. The share is undervalued and is showing a high earnings potential (RV) over the next three years and is on a BUY recommendation as the share rises from a major support level. Technically the next target for the share would be the last old high at 800p which would be close to doubling the present price.
Summary: From an operational standpoint, VectorVest believes the strong numbers announced today show that PLUS has emerged from its not inconsiderable regulatory challenges in fine shape, both financially and in terms of its current operating performances. Up to the end of last year, the stock had been trading at levels in excess of the current VectorVest valuation of 584p, so we fully expect the valuation gap to close in the coming months. Aggressive traders who have experience in managing risk proactively should carefully consider this opportunity. buy.
Dr David Paul
April 26 2017
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Cobham Now Fails to Meet Challenges
Cobham COB is yet another UK industrial giant which has proved incapable of meeting challenging trading conditions and the full year outcome will be behind management expectations, despite hopes of some improvement in quarter 4. The Chief Executive announced in August that he is stepping down and his replacement will be in place by January.
Plus 500 PLUS Despite new customers rising by 47% to record levels in quarter 3, revenue for the quarter fell by 4%. The strong growth of the first half has continued and the first 9 months has still produced record revenue with a rise of 14% and record new customers with a rise of 18%. The company is now to concentrate on increasing revenue for the rest of the year rather than catching new customers.
Fusionex Intl. FXI The momentum created in the first half has continued, leading to a strong financial performance and the company expects that full year EBITDA will be significantly ahead of market expectations.
Petra Diamonds PDL First quarter production to the 30th September rose by 30% producing revenue of $94.7m. This years second tender at which sales of 574 carats were achieved was held in October and produced sales of $66.4m. Petra says that it will be free cash flow positive as from the second half of 2017. Since last November the share price has risen from 50p to Fridays close at 139p.
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Cerillion CER expects full years results will show an increase of 6% and 8% respectively in revenues and EBITDA after continuing second half progress. Its performance is underpinned by a strong back order book.
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Randall & Quilter Rebounds
Randall & Quilter RQIH has produced a significantly stronger first half year performance this year than it did in 2015. Last years first half loss of £4.5m has been transformed into a profit of £1.2m for the current half year to the 30th June and last years loss per share of of 4.7p has become a positive 1.5p per share. The company says that the outlook is now very promising and strong trading is expected for the remainder of the year.
Dechra Pharmaceuticals DPH enjoyed strong growth both in its existing operations and in the three acquisitions which it made in the year to 30th June. Revenue from existing operations rose by 11% led by North America with a rise of 37.9% and consolidate revenue which includes acquisitions was up by 21.7%. The final dividend is to be increased by 9% to 18.46p.
Koovs plc KOOV continued to produce further strong growth during the 17 weeks to 31st July, with sales growth of 115%, registered users up by 201% and weekly website traffic by 142%.
Plus 500 Ltd. PLUS produced record revenue and profits for the half year to the end of June and is raising its interim dividend by 10%. revenue rose by 25%, net profit by 10% and earnings per share by 11%. The second half has started with further strong growth which is expected to contnue for the rest of the year
Wizz Air Holdings WIZZ The continuing boom in the demand for budget air fares saw Wizz Airs passenger numbers rise by 16.6% in August, almost exactly in line with a capacity increase of 17%. On a rolling 12 months basis capacity rose by 18.3% and passenger numbers by 19.8%.Competition in budget fares is not as fierce as it was as at least one of the former budget big boys makes it clear to its passengers that it is quite happy to charge more than the established schedule airlines, when it can get away with it, especially in the peak summer traffic season.
Quoted Micro 30 November 2015
ISDX
Hearing and mobility products marketer and retailer DHAIS (DHAP) slipped into loss last year after operating costs rose faster than gross profit because revenues did not grow as fast as expected. In the year to June 2015, revenues grew from £9.65m to £10.6m, while a profit of £161,000 was turned into a loss of £83,000. The interim profit had been flat but there was a larger second half increase in costs. However, there was a cash inflow after capital expenditure of £133,000, which helped to pay down debt – although this is mainly an interest free loan from a hearing aid manufacturer. Hearing aid sales were 15% ahead and mobility sales were 12% higher. At 30.5p (28p/33p) a share, DHAIS is valued at £19m. In May, Spain-based GN Hearing Care acquired the 4.76% stake previously owned by Eurohearingaids.com Ltd.
The new board at Lombard Capital Group (LCAP) has written down two investments in its portfolio by £141,000. At 4.5p (4p/5p) a share, Lombard is valued at £86,400. The NAV is £99,000 or 5.19p a share and that includes £16,000 in cash. Russell Darvill and Charlotte Argyle stepped down from the board and Mark Jackson, Graham Jones and Nigel Fitzpatrick were appointed to replace them early in November.
Miton Group took up all of the 15 million shares issued at 1p each by Wheelsure Holdings (WHLP), which gives it a 9.25% stake in the rail track safety products developer. Daniel Stewart, which became Wheelsure’s corporate adviser and broker in August, handled the subscription and has been issued warrants to subscribe for 1.4 million shares at 1p each any time in the next five years. At 1.125p (1p/1.25p) a share, Wheelsure is valued at £1.8m.
Titania Internet Ventures (TITP) has raised £25,200 from an issue of convertible unsecured loan notes maturing in November 2020. There is no interest income. The conversion price is 0.56p a share compared with the current market price of 2.5p (2p/3p) a share, which values the current share capital of the investment company at £44,000. The holder of the loan notes will not be allowed to have a stake of 30% or more in Titania on conversion. Titania is being run on a care and maintenance basis. Alexander David Securities has replaced SVS as corporate adviser.
Trading in the shares of Gowin New Energy Group Ltd (GWIN) has been suspended “due to a change in circumstances with its operating subsidiaries in China”. The suspension price is 0.55p (0.4p/0.7p) a share, which values the LED lighting products supplier at £2.5m.
AIM
Playtech has pulled out of its bid for Plus500 (PLUS) because of its failure to gain regulatory approval in an appropriate time scale. An interim dividend of $0.2121 a share has been announced – the plan is it to pay 60% of retained profit in dividend – and a share buy back programme of up to $20m will be put in place. Plus500 says that it had cash of $95m at the end of June 2015 and more has been generated since then. The dividend will cost $24.4m. Plus500 has had problems with regulators but it states that it “is not subject to restrictions imposed by any of its regulators”. Overall profit will be lower in 2015. Two non-executive directors have been buying shares but JP Morgan Chase has reduced its stake to 6.8%.
Motor dealer Cambria Automobiles (CAMB) reported slightly better than expected results, even after recent upgrades, and this has led to upgrades for 2015-16 and 2016-17. Underlying pre-tax profit improved from £5.4m to £7.7m in the year to August 2015. Cambria sold more new cars and made more profit on each of them. Used car and servicing revenues also increased. The dividend increased from 0.6p a share to 0.75p a share. Net cash was £1m and there is a £37m, five year bank facility that can be used for acquisitions. N+1 Singer has upgraded its profit forecasts by around 5% to £9m this year and £9.3m next year.
Pure Wafer (PUR) has agreed to sell its US wafer reclaim plant for $16m (£10.5m) and it will return the cash to shareholders. Pure Wafer had already decided not to rebuild the Swansea plant so it also has cash from the insurance claim. A decision on how much will initially be distributed will be made in December. WH Ireland believes that a distribution of at least 175p a share is possible. The company will leave AIM and be liquidated.
ASX-listed Tlou Energy (TLOU) raised £1.2m at 6.5p a share and joins AIM on 30 November. There is already £1m in the bank and no debt. Tlou has a coal bed methane project in Botswana, which has contingent recoverable resources of 3.3 trillion cubic feet. The Lesedi project in south east Botswana is 100%-owned but the Botswana government has an option to take a 15% stake when the mining licence is granted. The government will have to pay its share of the previous costs if the option is taken up, which could be around £6m. Broker Brandon Hill has already written a note on Tlou (http://tlouenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/150721-Brandon-Hill-UK-Initiating-Coverage.pdf). First commercial gas sales could be in the second half of 2016. Botswana has a power shortage and expensive diesel generation can be replaced by gas. Tlou has been in discussions with a number of potential partners for power generation projects. The initial project would be a 10MW gas-to-power plant and then further generation plants would be developed. Tlou still has to secure government permits and approvals.
Kefi Minerals (KEFI) has raised £2.64m at 0.3p a share in order to provide cash to progress with its Ethiopian gold project at Tulu Kapi. Odey Asset Management has increased its stake to 26%. This will provide enough cash until the middle of next year. Construction of the project should start in 2016 and Kefi has managed to substantially reduce the cost of the project. Gold production could start at the end of 2017.
MAIN MARKET
Waterman (WTM) says that its revenues were 8% higher in the first few months of the financial year and cash levels are better than expected. Public sector demand for infrastructure services is growing and property-based business is spread around the UK not just in London. The professional services business wants to reach an operating margin of 6% by 2018-19. Sanlam forecasts a rise in profit from £2.7m to £3.7m in the year to June 2016 and a 40% increase in dividend to 2.8p a share.
Bluebird Merchant Ventures Ltd plans to join the standard list in early December. Bluebird is involved in trading copper concentrate from the Philippines and has an option to acquire a 50.1% stake in Red Mountain Mining Singapore, which is developing a gold project. Clive Sinclair-Poulton, who has been a director of a number of AIM resources companies, is involved in Bluebird.
ANDREW HORE