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Ian Pollard – Bonmarche #BON Rejects Takeover Bid – But Only Asks For Talks
Bonmarche Holdings BON which had seen trading become significantly weaker than expected sine the beginning of March, has rejected a takeover bid from Phillip Day’s Spectre Holdings, on the basis that it undervalues the business and its future prospects. These included a rise in the underlying loss for the year from a possible £4.0m. to between £5.0m. and £6.0m. 2 April, Mr Day, who owns Edinburgh Woollen Mill Group, acquired 26 million Bonmarché shares at 11.445p a share, which brought his stake up to 52.4% and a warning that he expected a “material reduction” in staff. The Bonmarche Board was left with nothing but the expression of a wish to hold discussions, which would be for the benefit of all shareholders, including no doubt, themselves. So far they appear to be unable to find a reason why shareholders would benefit from their continued presence in the governance of the company, especially having regard to its recent continued decline under their stewardship.
Games Workshop Group GAW has today declared a dividend of 35 pence per share, in line with the Company’s policy of distributing truly surplus cash and to be paid on 31 May.This takes the total dividend declared and paid during the year ending 2 June 2019 to £1.55 per share. Trading has continued well since the half year report in January with sales and profits ahead of last year. The Board’s current expectations are that profit before tax for the year to June 2019 will be c. £80 million.
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Plus 500 Ltd PLUS updates that financial markets in the three months to the end of March were extremely subdued and revenue.fell by 65%. New customers were down by 10%. The company that It is impossible to predict market conditions for the rest of the year and conclusions can not be drawn about the full year outcome based on the Group’s first quarter performance.
Mobile Streams plc MOS has had to undergo a comprehensive cost-cutting exercise, in fact so comprehensive that both Non-Executive Directors have had to volunteer a deferral of 50% of their respective remuneration. Sizable one-off redundancy and severance payments have had to be made, to employees, many of whom were of long service. With falling revenue, decisive steps became necessary to allow the company to preserve and protect its remaining cash balances.
National Express NEX has acquired a 60% stake in WeDriveU an employee shuttle company serving many of the world’s largest and fastest growing companies in Silicon Valley and other fast growing US cities.. The deal also includes an Option to acquire the remaining shares in tranches over the next three years.
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Ian Pollard: TUI Impacted By Heatwave And Headwinds
TUI AG TUI has seen its first quarter performance so impacted by accountancy adjustments that the figures have become virtually meaningless due to the first-time application of IFRS 15 and of IFRS 9 in the previous year. The best that that can be said is that performance has been in line save for markets and airlines which were weak and faced signs of headwinds.The summer heatwave was partly responsible for that together with overcapacity in Spain due to the shift in demand to the Eastern Mediterranean. The growth strategy however is said to be intact. Markets & Airlines must be something of a problem because the headwinds which are buffeting it get repeated mentions, one after another in the story of what appears to have been a not very satisfactory first quarter.
Plus 500 Ltd PLUS produced a record financial performance in the year to the 31st December, after an exceptional first quarter benefitting in particular from Crypto currency trading. It is expected that 2019 profit will be materially lower than current market expectations. The company describes 2018 as a momentous year, well ahead of original expectations with revenue up by 65%, EBITDA by 95%, earnings per share by 90% and dividends by 18%.
Loop Up Group plc LOOP has traded strongly in 2018, with revenue in line with consensus expectations and profitability comfortably ahead. It was a year of transformational growth with new offices seen in Chicago, Dallas, LA, Atlanta and Madrid. Continuing strong demand is seen for the LoopUp product in 2019
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Ian Pollard – Whitbread #WTB, a solidly good year!
Whitbread plc WTB can not quite make its mind up as to whether its full year results are good or solid, so to be on the safe side, it claims they are both.On an underlying basis revenue rose by 2.6% and profit before tax by 2.5% which is hardly impressive. On a statutory basis, operating profit and profit before tax rose by 0.1% and 0.2% respectively, which appears to be neither good nor solid. Even solidly good seems to be a bit of an exaggeration.
The man event of the year was was the sale of Costs to Coca Cola for £3.9bn. A significant majority of the net cash proceeds will be returned to shareholders but not just yet because regulatory approval is still required from the EU and perhaps more importantly China. Trump had perhaps best tread carefully on the sanctions front if he wants Coca Cola to get its approval. The one figure which does stand out among these somewhat mundane results is that the shareholders are to be well looked after with a dividend rise of 4%.
Bunzl plc BNZL Third quarter Group revenue rose by 7% at constant exchange rates due to a mixture of organic growth of approximately 4% and an impact from net acquisitions, of approximately 3%. This is as expected at the time of the half year results.Since then Bunzl recently has entered into an agreement to acquire Volk do Brasil which .will expand its already well established safety business in Brazil
Plus500 Ltd PLUS expects trading for 2018 will now be ahead of expectations. Despite a third quarter drop in revenue of 14%, the nine month figures show a healthy rise in revenue of 86% whilst the number of new customers has risen by 19% and the number of active customers by 74%.
Intu Properties plc INTU has continued to deliver a strong and resilient operational performance from 1st July to the 23rd October but it has not been able to ignore the fact this has been a particularly challenging period for UK retailers. Rent reviews settled in the period have on average been 5 per cent above previous reviews but significantly anticipated growth for 2018 is expected to be no more than 0 to 1% as tenant failures impacted the figures by some 1.5 %.and footfall for the year fell by 1.3%. The occupancy rate however rose to 97%
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Ian Pollard – Plus 500 #PLUS Benefits From Trump Tariffs
Plus 500 Ltd PLUS has again, after a strong second quarter, performed strongly in the first half and materially increased its expectations for the Group’s financial performance for the year to the end of December. What it describes as geopolitical events particularly with regard to US import tariffs have resulted in higher than expected levels of market volatility, resulting in the strong second quarter.
Meggitt MGGT Trading in quarter two has been stronger than expected with good growth across its Civil aftermarket and the military and energy markets. Organic revenue growth for the year in Military is now expected to between 6% – 8%, up from 3-5%whilst total oganic revenue growth is expected to rise to between 4 -6% instead of 2-4%
Trakm8 Holdings plc TRAK reports very strong progress during the year to the end of March with revenue up by 12% and profit before tax by 69%. However revenue and profit for the first half of the current year are expected to be below those for the first half of 2018 the second half figures will be considerably better than last year leading to higher figures for the full year.
Kromek Group KMK had another good year of growth in the 12 months to the 30th April,with revenue rising by 32% and the loss before tax falling from £3.8m to £2.5m. The customer base was developed and becoming EBITDA positive for the first time, making it a milestone year on the way to reaching cash flow break even and pre-tax profits.. The momentum has continued into the current financial year
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Ian Pollard – Next #NXT succumbs to High St woes
NEXT NXT colder weather and a big rise in online sales helped Next to beat expectations for full price sales in the 54 days between 1st November and the 24th December, with a rise of 1.5% as against an expected fall of -0.3%. Within that figure however, retail sales were a disaster with a fall of 6.1% compared to a rise of 13.6% in online sales. Trading for the year as a whole, the 52 weeks to January 2018,was nothing less than disastrous with group profit before tax down by 8.3% slightly better than the expected 9.3%. For 2018 the decline is expected to continue albeit at a reduced rate as subdued consumer demand and a continued decline in real incomes continue to wreak havoc on the high street.
Plus 500 PLUS expects revenue and profits for the year to the 31st December will be ahead of expectations after record revenues were achieved in the fourth quarter, as well as 246,000 new customers.
Oncimmune ONC listed on AIM in May 2016 with its main aim being to enter the Chinese market with its early cancer detection test. The Chinese are heavy smokers and lung cancer deaths alone, now exceed 700,000 each year, due in part to late detection. Oncimmune’s test can detect cancer up to 4 years earlier than conventional methods and the company announced over Christmas that it has reached a distributorship deal with Genostics, a Hong Kong company which has acquired over 6 million shares in Oncimmune at a price of £1.56. Oncimmunes shares jumped to £1.29 yesterday, a rise of 23%
December traffic statistics saw Wizz Air increase capacity by 19.4% and passengers by 19.8%, with load factor up slightly at 87.5%. Ryanair December traffic rose by 3% whilst load factor was up by 1% to 95%
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WPP Uppish And Downish And Flat
WPP plc WPP has seen a steady decline since the beginning of the year and the third quarter saw results which managed to be up and down at the same depending on which currency they are in. The year started with first quarter rises in sales and revenue of 4.8% and 3.6% respectively and ending in the third quarter with sales up by 0.9% and revenue down 1.1% on a like for like basis. For the nine months as a whole they were still up and down with revenue on a constant currency basis down 0.9% and constant currency sales up 1.7% or down 0.7% on a like for like basis. Not surprisingly the forecast for the year is that it will be neither up nor down but flat.
Croda International CRDA constant currency sales grew by 4.4% for the third quarter to the end of September and by 4% for the year to date. Strong sales in personal care rose by 5.7% and helped to build on the first half recovery whilst geographically Latin America remained challenging but North America, Europe and Asia grew by 8%, 7% and 6% respectively.
Weir Group WEIR expects to see strong growth in constant currency revenues and profits for the full year. Strong order growth continued into the third quarter with a rise of 21% headed by oil and gas which leapt by 59% Operating profit however will be slightly lower than previously indicated.
Plus 500 PLUS believes that full year results will be ahead of market expectations after a record third quarter which saw revenue up by 50% and new customers by 69%. Over the nine months to date the revenue rise was 29%
Earthport EPO The Chairman claims that 2017 was a good year with the loss after tax rising by 58% but adjusted gross profit up by 30% and adjusted EBITDA loss down by 58% thus establishing a solid platform for growth.
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Plus 500 Record Breaking Results And More To Come
Plus 500 PLUS produced a strong performance with record breaking results significantly ahead of expectations, in the six months to the 30th June. Net profit rose by 104%, EBITDA by by 100% and earnings per share by 103%. Revenue rose by 19%. Including the share buy back programme returns to shareholders more than doubled, rising from $26.7m to $64.4m. Current trading continues to be strong and it is expected that results for the remainder of the year will continue to exceed market expectations, significantly.
Telit Communications TCM plunged from a profit of $4.7m to a loss of $6.7m before tax in the six months to the 30th June. Revenue growth was hekd back by a number of factors including delays in the US certification of LTE poducts which is not now expected until quarter 3. Despite the delay the company still expects these to be strong growth drivers in the second half and remains confident of a strong performance but just to be on the safe side the interim dividend of 2.5 US cents per share is being abolished.
Ultra Eectronics ULE Expects to see the year more heavily weighted than normal towards the second half following delays in the awarding of new contracts due to the UK general election and delays in the US budget being approved. First half revenue fell by 0.1% and underlying profit before tax by 0.2% but the interim dividend is being increased by 2.8%
Filta Group Holdings FLTA updates that revenue growth in the six months to the 30th June has been in the region of 38% following strong performances in both the UK and the US. The first half has been substantially ahead of last year and further growth is expected throughout he remainder of the year.
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Continue buying Plus 500 (PLUS) – the trend continues to be our friend, says VectorVest
Plus500 Ltd, (PLUS.L), formerly Investsoft Ltd., is an Israel-based company, which develops and operates online trading platforms for retail customers to trade contracts for difference (CFDs) internationally over more than 1,700 different underlying global financial instruments, comprising equities, exchange traded funds (ETF), foreign exchange, indices and commodities. The Company offers its service to retail customers in more than 50 countries via platforms across multiple internet and mobile operating systems.
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On June 2nd 2017, PLUS updated on trading update, and said the the positive trends outlined in the first quarter trading update issued on 26th April 2017 had continued. A further half-year trading update on July 3rd said that the business has continued to trade very strongly, and as a result, the Company now anticipates that revenues and profits for the year ending 31 December 2017 will be significantly ahead of current market expectations. CEO Asaf Elimelech said; “We have had a very successful half year, significantly ahead of our expectations. This puts us in a strong position for the remainder of the year. We are confident that our flexible business model will enable us to adapt to the upcoming regulatory changes and gives us a competitive advantage that will enable us to deliver another excellent performance this year.”
PLUS started appearing across key VectorVest metrics in December 2016, when the shares traded around 320p. While the well-documented regulatory challenges with financial authorities around the globe still sees a low RS (Relative Safety) rating of just 0.83 – poor on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00, the rate of recovery since the beginning of the year has seen the stock hit our current Value target of 578p per share for PLUS, indicating that at 596p it is currently fully. This only tells part of the story though: the RT (Relative Timing) indicator,which is a fast, smart, accurate indicator of a stock’s price trend, shows a rating of 1.55 for PLUS, which is excellent on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00.
The chart of Plus 500 is shown above where the share is on a VectorVest BUY recommendation. Over the past month the share has charted a triangular consolidation pattern and has gapped upwards out of the consolidation over the past two trading days. This gap (breakaway gap) usually precedes a strong move. Those holding the share should sit tight and consider adding to a winning position.
Summary: Since our April 26th note, PLUS has made dramatic progress from 468p and has hit our valuation of 578p. We repeat the view that PLUS has emerged from its not inconsiderable regulatory challenges in fine shape, and with an extremely bullish forecast for full year numbers. The valuation gap has now closed, but with the trend very much a friend in this case, the RT indicator shows that further progress from this point is likely. Aggressive traders who have experience in managing risk proactively should carefully consider this opportunity when they observe that the general market is positive.
David Paul
July 5th 2017
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Photo-Me To Increase Dividend by 20%
Photo-Me Intnl PHTM updates that the year to 30th April has been a year of excellent progress, with profit before tax expected to be at record levels after an increase of about 20% over 2016 which will enable the commitment to a 20% year on year rise in the ordinary dividend, to be met.
Investment in new products, growth of the laundry business, especially in Europe and that old friend, favourable currency movements, have all contributed to the success. The launch of the first ever laundrette in Japan, has proved to be a success.
Plus 500 Ltd. PLUS The positive trends evidenced in the first quarter have continued, Second quarter trading revenue has been stronger and margins have been maintained.
Inmarsat plc ISAT has announced that Quatar Airways Airways has become the first Middle East megacarrier to select its advanced new GX Aviation in-flight broadband solution, which will be initially available on 130 aircraft
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Dr David Paul of VectorVest discusses the uptrend in VectorVest Composite UK index on TipTV, plus the early risers portfolio
Dr David Paul, Managing director of VectorVest says the short-term trend and the underlying trends in the ‘VectorVest Composite UK’ index / London market is up, however, caution is advised as more standard indicators like the weekly MACD are suggesting the trend looks matured. “The weekly MACD shows bearish divergence”, says Dr. Paul. Watch the full segment for more info on this week’s VectorVest Early Risers portfolio picks, including Victoria (VCP.L), 3i Group (III.L), Coats (COA.L), Beximco Pharm (BXP.L) & Plus 500 (PLUS.L) & Dr. Paul’s trade of the day