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M&S – Decline In All Sectors Produces Rise of 2%
Marks & Spencer MKS CEO Steve Rowe comes out of his corner fighting with claims that in the half year to the end of September, good progress has been made on the immediate burning issues which he faced a year ago, and that Marks is now a robust and profitable business. Only in Food are there still problems which he will be addressing later in the year. The company, he crows, is ready to accelerate the transformations which have taken place and he produces figures which he appears to hope, will lead people to believe him. International profits have trebled to £60.3m., full price Clothing & Home sales have risen by 5.3% and food revenue is up by 4.4% but all of that rise he admits is due to the opening of new space.
Now it would perhaps be unfair to say that is a load of porkies but the figures which really matter in the view of many, like for like revenue on a constant currency basis, show a somewhat different story which hardly yet justify that fighting stance. The truth is that on a like for like, constant currency basis, decline still prevails and does so in all sectors. Food is down 0.1%, Clothing and Home is down 0.7%, total UK revenue is down by 0.3% and even the much vaunted International business turns out to have declined by 3.1%. To add insult to injury the same table of statistics is used to show that all these falls add up to a rise of 2% in total group revenue. This mathematical sleight of hand is made possible by failing to specify whether that total revenue figure is like for like revenue, on a constant currency basis or what.
Persimmon PSN has enjoyed strong customer activity in the quarter to the 7th November and has now fully sold up for the current year, whilst forward sales reserved beyond 2017 now amount to nearly £1 bn. Not surprisingly in these circumstances pricing has also remained strong.
JD Wetherspoon JDW updates that the new financial year has started positively with sales at a slightly higher level than anticipated. Costs however have been significantly higher than expected. Chairman, Tim Martin, saves most of his update to lambast the media, senior company directors et all for providing completely false information about Brexit and the devastating effect it will have on companies and on the British economy, as a whole. He refers to quotes and articles by Sainsbury and Whitbreads and exposes their arguments as being deliberately misleading and makes the point that they and other majors, already have plans in place in readiness for brexit, deal or no deal and many of them are positively looking for ward to it.
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Ocado – English As A Foreign Language
Ocado Group OCDO got so bogged down in jargon in its half year results to the 28th May that one can easily believe they must have done it deliberately purely to show how clever they are compared to those of us who can only speak ordinary English which everybody else understands. Thus the report is stuffed with platforms, channel shift to online advances. store pick capabilities and other nonsense. Perhaps lack of basic English is becoming a requisite for a senior management position.
As for the results themselves they show a 12.5% rise in revenue because of the strength of its customer offer, a 2.7% increase in gross margins and investment in its platform. The result of all this is an 18.1% fall in profit before tax, as a result of higher depreciation. Active customers during the half year rose by 600,000 but significantly the value of their average basket fell by 1.4%. There are signs that price deflation has begun to ease and management sees that as a possible opportunity for increasing profits, a view which explains why Sainsbury took over as King of the High Street with its results yesterday.
Persimmon PSN claims that its trading performance for the half year to 30th June has been excellent, with legal completions up by 8%. The increase in the average selling price was somewhat restrained at only 3.5% but with over £1 billion of cash swilling around in its coffers it can perhaps afford to show a bit more generosity towards its customers as well as to its shareholders. Mortgage interest rates remain compelling and consumer confidence is seen as resilient. as for the second half forward sales are up by 18%
1PM plc OPM has experienced strong levels of demand and trading results for the year to 31st May are expected to show further strong growth with profit before tax up by 28%, marginally ahead of expectations and revenue by 34%, in line with expectations
Booker Group BOK enjoyed a good first quarter for th 12 weeks to 1st June with non tobacco like form like sales rising by 9.6% and like for like tobacco sales down 7.9%. The competition process for its proposed merger with Tesco, continues.
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Lloyds Admits To “Positive Operating Jaws”
Lloyds Bank LLOY admits to having “positive operating jaws” which helped it to produce a strong first quarter financial performance and a significant improvement in statutory profit before tax, despite disagreeing with the house builders (see below) about the state of the UK economy, which the bank says still presents a challenging operating environment. As for those jaws, I never thought I would see the day when a bank would agree so openly that the widely held view about a banks resemblance to a certain type of large and very dangerous fish, appears to be correct !
Persimmon PSN claims that its continuing operational performance is excellent, helped by the resilience of the UK economy. does this mean that at long last challenging market conditions have disappeared. Forward sales revenue has risen by 11% on a year ago, whilst private sales rater per site are 12% ahead. The average selling price has, so far, been increased by 4.1%.
WPP plc WPP First quarter revenue net sales and operating profit are all well above budget and well ahead of last year – at least until you strip out the helping hands provided by acquisitions and the weakness of sterling. On a like for like basis the picture looks far less impressive, with revenue rising by 0.2% and net sales by 0.8%. WPP regards net sales as the true test of its success or otherwise. In this respect North America was under pressure but the UK and continental Western Europe both grew strongly.
Weir Group WEIR is on track for a strong recovery in 2017, with first quarter order input up by 15%, oil and gas orders up by 50% and continued strong cash generation.
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Weak Sterling Continues to Hit Primark
Associated British Foods ABF expects excellent progress in adjusted operating profit and earnings per share for the half year to the 4th March. Primark sales are expected to be11% ahead at constant currency rates and 21% ahead at actual exchange rates but on a like for like basis UK Primark sales will show growth of only 2%, positively pedestrian compared with past performances. Most of the groups extra profit will come in the current half and there are warnings that sterling’s weakness last year will produce greater margin decline in Primark in the second half of this year..
In grocery, revenue and operating profit are expected to be ahead of last year and sugar is expected to be well ahead.
Bunzl BNZL is increasing its dividend for the year by 11% after producing a set of strong results for the year to the end of December and continuing 24 years of unbroken dividend growth. Statutory operating profit and profit before tax each rose by 12% and basic earnings per share by 14%.
Hiscox HSX admits that its strong results for the year to the end of December have been flattered by foreign exchange movements, as well as by a strong investment returns. Profit before tax, with an increase of 64% grew to record levels and the final dividend is being increased by 15% to 27.5p. Gross written premiums for the year grew by 23.6%
Persimmon PSN continued to outperform in 2016 and is to repay shareholders a further 25p per share on the 31st March as a first interim dividend for 2016. That is in addition to the already agreed second interim dividend of 110p. per share which will be paid on the 3rd July. Underlying profit before tax for 2016 rose by 23% on revenue for the year which was up by 8%. Underlying basic earnings per share rose by 19%. The average selling price during the year was increased by what for housebuilders is the very modest amount of 3.8%. Forward sales at the year end showed an increase of 9%
Rotork plc ROR despite a “currency tailwind” of 10%, 2016 profit before tax still slumped by 20% and earnings per share by 19.9%. The trading environment did stabilise in the second half but any near term growth in the nergy market is expected to be modest, reflecting those sombre thoughts, the full year dividend is raised by 1%.
Dechra Pharm plc DPH All products produced sales growth in the half year to 31st December and growth in recently acquired businesses, exceeded expectations. Total group revenue was up by 34.7% at constant exchange rates or 55.9% and actual exchange rates. Underlying operating profit rose by 28.6% and EBITDA by 27.7%
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Persimmon Full Of Optimism
Persimmon PSN ends 2016 full of optimism and certainly does not share the gloom displayed by many of its competitors. Revenue rose by 8% during the year and average sales prices were increased by a modest 4% which compares favourably with the greed shown by many of the household names in the industry. Competitive mortgage rates remain a key factor behind the strength of the market, Autumn reservations were strong and second half private sales rates were 15% ahead of 2015 and legal completions rose by 10%. Second half margins are also expected to have improved because of cheaper prices for land.
Churchill China CHH also has a smile on its face with its update for 2016. final quarter trading has been ahead of expectations, performance in export markets has been strong and the operating performance for the year to the end of December gas been ahead of market expectations and well ahead of 2015. Preliminary results will be announced on the 28th March.
<img class="alignleft" src="https://upload.wikimedia herbal slimming pills.org/wikipedia/en/d/d4/PureCircle_logo.jpeg” width=”113″ height=”68″ />Pure Circle PURE experienced very strong growth in 2016 in Europe and in Latin America but first half sales are expected to be down 14% on 2016 following the detention of shipments by US Customs which has been large enough to offset growth in the rest of the world. First half group profits are expected to be down by 19% as a direct result of this and for the full year it is anticipated that for the full year last years profit of $5m. will be turned into a loss of $2m. The company has been working with US Customs from whom a final decision is now awaited.
Science in Sport SIS enjoyed strong growth in the year to 31st December with sales rising by 30%. Direct sales for the year doubled and the new Australian operation delivered sales ahead of expectations. Continuing strong growth is confidently expected for 2017 and beyond.
Johnson Services JSG is disposing of its dry cleaning business to Timpsons for £8.25m. Results for the year to 31st December will be slightly ahead of current market expectations.
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Wetherspoon Worried By High Debt Risks
Wetherspoon JDW First quarter like for like sales rose by 3.5% and total sales by 2.3%. Operating margins gowever jumped from last year’s 5.8% to 8.6% and 7% is anticipated for the full year. The rise in debt levels have become a cause for concern, indeed such a cause for concern that the company thought it necessary to reassure its major shareholders, whilst at the same time admitting that they have clearly involved significant risks. Over each of the last three years debt levels has risen substantially and now stands at another record of 3.47 times EBITDA
Persimmon PSN The housing boom has continued to go from strength to strength since half year results were announced on the 23rd August and private sales have risen by 19%. This continues the trend experienced earlier in the summer and Persimmon is now fully sold for the current year, with consumer confidence described as “resilient”.
Just Eat plc JE Strong growth led to a rise of 34% in third quarter like for like orders, with the UK producing a rise of 28%. Full year expectations have again been increased slightly
Ryanair RYA October traffic grew by 13% thanks to cheaper fares and the load factor rose by a further 1% to 95%.
Next NXT expected difficult trading in quarter three and got it, with full price sales down by 3.5% compared to -1.5% for the nine months to date. October did see a recovery with a significant improvement in sales. The range of full year sales guidance has been narrowed down from -1.75% to + 1.25% compared to the previous range of -2.5% to +2.5%
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Foreign Exchange Tailwinds Arrive To Help The Weak.
Cape plc CIU Companies with problems are now beginning to benefit from the collapse of sterling or as Cape puts it, foreign exchange tailwinds. Profit before tax for the half year to 30th July slumped by 30% after a 10% rise in revenue. Weak margins in the UK were partly offset by Asia Pacific performing above expectations and a strong Middle East. Full year expectations are unchanged, partly because of those foreign exchange tailwinds. That must be a comfort for the company’s management if not for the country as a whole..
Persimmon PSN appears to show clear signs of a slowdown in its housing market, despite claims that it has produced a robust trading performance for the half year to 30th June, which saw profit before tax up by 29% and basic earnings per share by 19%. True legal completions in the half year did rise by 6% but after a 6% rise in the average selling price, forward sales at the end of the half year were up by only 2% in value. Customer site visits have risen by 20% but site visits are not sales and if forward orders are up by only 2% after a 6% price hike and a 20% increase in visitor numbers, something is not adding up. Revenue for the half year rose by 12% which matches exactly the rise in completions plus the price hike.
Rank Group RNK is increasing its final dividend by 18% to 4.7p per share after growth across all its brands and channels. Like for like revenue for the year to 30th June rose by 3%, total revenue by 2%, adjusted profit before tax and earnings per share by 4% and 5% respectively, so with 18% shareholders are doing very well.
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Persimmon – Clouds On The Horizon ?
Persimmon PSN has been having a rough time during the past few months. In April its shares fell 6% on worries about slowing sales and then between 24th and 27th June its share price fell off a cliff after the referendum results with a two day decline of about a third, leaving it at £14 compared to a previous high of £22.
Persimmon claims that trading has been strong during during the half year to 30th June with the average selling price rising by 6% and group revenue up by 12% but the real picture painted by todays trading update is of some clouds appearing on the horizon. In May and June the private sales rate was ahead by a meagre 1%.whereas first quarter UK mortgage approvals were up by 18%. Forward sales as at 30th June were only level with last years figure. Planners are blamed for continued delays in the start of construction on new development sites.
Advanced Medical Solutions AMS does not have a lot to say in its update for the 6 months to 30th June except that that it is and will continue to be a major beneficiary of the fall in the pound, with 60% of its sales being in $US or Euros. The result will be an expected rise in revenue but profitability remaining in line.
Young & Cos Brewery YNGA has had a good start to the year, despite the weather. Revenue in the first 13 weeks have risen by 6.5% or 4.1% on a like for like basis.
Hayward Tyler Group HAYT claims to have transformed itself into a forward thinking, profitable market leader, ready for its next stage of growth. For the year to 31st Marc h revenue including acquisitions rose by 27%m trading profit before tax by 18% and trading earnings per share by 36%. The dividend is to be increased by 5%.
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