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Alan Green talks house builders and recovery, plus Persimmon #PSN, Zenova Group #ZED and Echo Energy #ECHO on UK Investor Magazine podcast

Alan Green joins the UK Investor Magazine Podcast in the midst of the summer lull in market with holidaying traders meaning lower volumes across markets and tepid price action.

Nonetheless, we have received strong data from the ONS on UK house prices that confirmed what most in the market had already knew; Uk house prices have soared boosted by Stamp Duty Holidays and lack of supply.

We discuss Persimmon (LON:PSN), Zenova Group (LON:ZED) and Echo Energy (LON:ECHO).

Alan Green joins the UK Investor Magazine podcast as we discuss Lloyds #LLOY Persimmon #PSN Corcel #CRCL Catenae Innovation #CTEA and Versarien #VRS

Alan Green joins the Podcast as we digest recent updates from FTSE 100 majors such as BP, WPP, Lloyds and Persimmon.

The shares operate in some of the most cyclical industries including commodities, advertising, finance and house building. This broad spread means these companies provide vital insight into the health of the wider economy.

While the recent updates from these companies were strong, the FTSE 100 is yet to breach 7,000 with any conviction, highlighting that investors could have already priced in much of the economic recovery to stock markets. We look at whether this signals we are entering the chapter for stock markets.

We discuss in detail Corcel (LON:CRCL), Catenae Innovation (LON:CTEA) and Versarien (LON:VRS).

Ian Pollard – Persimmon – Strong Growth As Sales Decline

NEXT plc NXT first quarter trading to the 27th April was saved only  by online sales which rose by 11% and are forecast to continue to grow at the same rate for the remainder of the year. Full price retail sales for the quarter fell by 3.6%. The picture for the remainder of the year is even bleaker with the forecast decline more than doubling to 8.6%. Group profit before tax for the year to January 2020 is expected to show a fall of 1.1%

Persimmon plc PSN  Claims that since the start of the year the new build housing market has proved resilient with high levels of employment, and low interest rates, freely available and attractive mortgages, continuing to support consumer confidence. The Group’s current forward sales position is described as being strong with total forward sales revenue, taken to date in 2019, of £2,698 million down from £2,798 million in 2018. Most companies take the view that a rise in sales is a better test of performance.

Rank Group plc RNK experienced flat like-for-like revenue for the quarter ended 31 March 2019, with total revenue up 1%. The poor start to the year with declines of 6% at Grosvenor and Mecca, improving to 0% and !% respectively and leaving group revenue for quarter 3 level, up from a 5% fall in the first quarter.

IWG plc IWG Growth remained strong during the quarter to the 31st March with Group revenue increasing  by 10.6% at constant currency rates. The improvement was  driven by double digit revenue growth in the Americas, Asia Pacific and EMEA. France, Germany and Spain, also contributed very strongly.

Redhall Group plc RHL the Board anticipates that the full year trading performance for the Group will be materially below its previous expectations. . These were based on the group winning a number of  new contracts, which would deliver a strong trading performance in the second half of the year but delays in the award of a number of these projects and a reduction, in the value of Jordan Manufacturing’s contract for a major nuclear infrastructure programme have impacted those expectations. The groups pipeline of opportunities remains strong and the Board anticipates that it will be able to deliver steady growth into 2020.

Sainsbury J. plc SBRY announces underlying profits up 7.8 per cent, ahead of target and final dividend up 11.3% making a total increase for the year of 7.8 per cent.

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Ian Pollard – Persimmon #PSN new house price inflation falls to 1%

Persimmon plc PSN claims to have delivered another strong trading performance in 2018 with total Group revenues of £3.74bn., 4% higher than the previous year. A little cloud in the sky appeared in the shape of the average selling price  increased by only 1%, which from memory is the lowest for many a year and not something which housebuilders welcome because they think it indicates the market is weak and they can not sell their houses. Housebuyers however can see it as a very good thing which eases the burden of above inflation price increases which the builders used to impose with such glee. Forward sales at 31 December were 3% ahead of 2017 which shows the benefit for the builders of more stable prices. Pre-tax profits for 2018 are expected to follow a similar pattern and be modestly ahead of current market consensus.

Savills plc SVS experienced a robust closing quarter and produced growth in both revenue and underlying profits for the full year. The residential business continued to perform well in challenging market conditions. These achievements came against a backdrop of heightened uncertainty through the last quarter as Brexit, US trade policy produced concerns.

Games Workshop GAW continues to be in great shape says the CEO as the interim dividend is increased from 61p to 65p for the six months to the 2nd December after Revenue rose from £109m. to £125m. Basic earnings per share for the half year have grown from 96p per share to  100.8p

Spirent Comm PLC SPT updates for the final quarter  to the 31 December and for the year in full. Revenue for the full year grew by 6% and good momentum continued into the final quarter.On an adjusted basis operating profit is expected to show a 30% increase on the previous year, exceeding market expectations and demonstrating a year of strong profitable growth.

Telit Communications TCM expects revenue for the year to the end of December to show strong profitable growth Aadjusted operating profit is expected to exceed  market expectations with a rise of some 30% on the previous year. Shareholder approval for the proposed sale of the automotive division is expected to be obtained on the 29th January and completed on the 31st January.The Executive Chairman claims that over the last few months, the Group has delivered double-digit revenue growth, and improved profitability over the year. The financial performance is expected to be improved further in 2019.

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Ian Pollard: ABF – A Headline A Day

Associated British Foods ABF Yesterdays headline trumpeted that Primark blamed three periods of unseasonable weather for sales sliding by 2.1% over the year to the 15th September. But today a new day has dawned and brought with it new headlines as the media stands on its head and proclaims that today’s truth is that Primark has in fact delivered a strong performance with sales rising by 1%. Like for like sales in the UK rose by 1.2% where its share of the clothing market grew significantly. Despite suffering in Europe where sales were weak and fell by 4.7%, total sales including those from fifteen new stores in nine countries, grew by 5%

Perhaps George Weston the CEO got it right when he calmly headlined that it had been another year of progress, with strong profits, not only from Primark but from each of its other world beating divisions, grocery, agriculture and ingredients, with only sugar letting the side down. Adjusted profit before tax rose by 5% and earnings per share by 6% whilst the final dividend is increased by a healthy 10% in line with the promises of a strong  profit performance  made in Septembers update.

Marks & Spencer Group MKS waved its magicians wand and produced a 7.1% increase in profit before tax after revenue which fell by 3.1% in the half year to the 29th September. The company is now going through the first phase of it transformation programme which includes the closure of over 100 stores and the introduction of a” new, very determined and energetic management team”  which indicates that the previous management team must have been regarded as somewhat lacking in these qualities. The store closures had their effect on revenue with Clothing & Home down 2.7%, Food down by 0.2% or 2.9% on a like-for-like basis, reflecting tough trading. Looking at the level of their food prices perhaps there is little wonder that trading was tough.
Persimmon PSN “All gone” is the word from Persimmon which admits that at the end of its third quarter on the 6th November it is fully sold up for the current year and forward sales beyond 2018 are 9% up on a year ago. Sales prices remain firm and consumer confidence is described as being resilient.
Dairy Crest Group DCG claims delivery of  a good performance in the half year to the 30th September, driven by its two largest brands, Cathedral City and Clover. Profit before tax fell by 88% and basic earnings per share by 89%. Revenue rose by 2% and the interim dividend is to be increased by the same amount

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Ian Pollard – Persimmon Homes #PSN strong performance to continue in H2

Persimmon Homes plc PSN proclaims that strong results for the half year to the 30th June reflect the continued successful delivery of the Group’s long term strategy. Profit before tax and basic earnings per share both rose by 13%, group revenue by 5% and new home sales by 4%. Forward sales are 6% ahead of last year and expectations are that results for the second half year will also be strong.

BHP Billiton plc BLT is paying a record final dividend of 63 cents per share, making a total payout for the year 118 cents, a rise of 42%, for the year to the 30th June, reflecting. a strong operating performance and well ahead of the minimum permitted payout.. Attributable profit and basic earnings per share both fell by 37% after taking into account exceptional items but on an underlying basis the figures showed rises of 33% each.

Wood Group (John) plc WG enjoyed strong organic growth during its first half to the end of June, with revenue rising by 13.4% and the operating profit rising from $72m to $125. However last years first half profit of $6m. was turned into a loss of $52m due to amortisation charges of $125m and exceptional costs of $101m. Basic earnings per share fell from 1.1c per share to a negative 7.9 cents per share.The interim dividend is to be increased by 2% to 11.3 cents per share. A stronger second half is expected due to project phasing and market recovery.

Angling Direct plc ANG trading in the six months to the 31st July was extremely positive and ahead of management expectations, with a rise of 56%. On a like for like basis sales rose by 4.2%

Tracsis TRCS Group trading for the year to the 31st July has been strong with revenues ahead of market expectations at c. £40m compared to last years £34.5. EBITDA and adjusted profit are also expected to be ahead of market expectations and also ahead of the previous year.

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Ian Pollard – Housebuilders In Cloud Cuckoo Land

Bovis Homes BVG delivered a total of 1,580 completions in the half year to the 3oth June, slightly ahead of  expectations and an increase of 4% on the previous year. Average selling prices for private houses only managed by a whisker to avoid falling into negative territory at £335,000 compared to last years £334,700. The total average selling price represented nothing less than a disaster, collapsing from £277,400 last year to this years £261,000 Bovis  claim that  the fundamentals of the housing market remain robust. Rumors that their latest new site will be in cloud cuckoo land are not to be believed.

Persimmon PSN It is not all that long ago when a set of results like these from one of the country’s major house builders would have been regarded as a national disaster. Gone, however, are the days of double digit increases in this that and the other and Persimmon regards itself as being in a robust position merely because it has managed to scrape into positive territory. It provides an update that in the six months to the 30th June revenue increased by 5% and completions of new houses, rose by 3.6%. Most telling of all however is the fact that Persimmon was only able to increase its the average selling price by a mere 1.2%. In other words new house price inflation is virtually dead, despite the fact that consumer confidence is resilient and business is claimed to be robust.

Associated British Foods ABF updates that the revenue momentum of the first half continued into the second half with like for like group revenue in the forty weeks to the 23rd June being 3% ahead of last year at constant currency rates and 2% ahead at actual exchange rates. Lower EU sugar prices impacted the performance of the Sugar division without which the increases become even more respectable at 6% and 5% respectively. Good profit growth for the full year is expected from Grocery and Agriculture. The continuing decline in wold sugar prices means that sales and profit at AB Sugar, both for this financial year and the next will be lower than previously expected.

Primark is benefiting from higher margins and sales in the year to date were 6% ahead of last year at constant currency rates and 7% ahead at actual exchange rates. This was mainly due to an increase in selling space but like-for-like sales improved on those for the first half of the year. Margins in the second half are expected to be well ahead of the first half.

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David Paul of VectorVest discusses market timing, #GKP, #PSN, #AAL, #KAZ & #CWK on Core Finance

David Paul of VectorVest discusses market timing, Gulf Keystone #GKP, Persimmon #PSN, Anglo American #AAL, #KAZ Minerals & Cranswick #CWK with Nick ‘Moose’ Batsford of Core Finance.

 

Ian Pollard – Persimmon To Distribute Largesse To The Shareholders

Persimmon PSN describes its 2017 performance as excellent and its continued outperformance as enabling  an  increase in capital return payments of 125p. per share to be made in each of the next three years, to be paid as an interim dividend  in late March / early April of each year, commencing on the 29th March 2018. The scheduled capital return of 110p per share will be paid on the 2nd July as a final dividend for 2017. 2017 was another year of disciplined high quality growth with revenue up by 9%, underlying profit before tax by 25% and earnings per share by 26%. The average selling price rose by 3.2%.

GKN plc GKN claims to be excited about plans for its” fantastic businesses” which include the separation of Aerospace and Driveline into two separate companies in 2019. As for 2017 organic sales rose by 6% and exceeded £10 billion for the first time. Profit before tax on a statutory basis rose by 125% and the final dividend is to be increased by 5%.

Direct Line Insurance Group DLG. 2017 was the fifth consecutive year in which DLG delivered a strong financial performance,and shareholders are getting their just rewards with whopping dividend increases.Profit before tax for the year to the 31st December surged by 52.7% and the final dividend is to be increased by 40.2% to 13.6p on top of the jump in the interim dividend of 38.8%. A special dividend of 15p per share is also to be paid which is an increase of 50% over last years payment.

Johnson Service Group plc JSG Following the disposal of the dry cleaning division in January 2017  Johnson transformed itself into a textile services business and with the help of acquisitions made during the year, delivered a strong financial performance, with revenue rising by 13.3%. Adjusted profit before tax for the year to the 31st December  rose by 17.5% and diluted earnings per share by 14.5%. The final dividend is to be increased by 12% to 2.8p per share.

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Ian Pollard – Morrisons Bumper Christmas & New Year

Morrison W. MRW has by modern retail and high street standards had a bumper Christmas with group like for like sales up by 2.8% or 3% including fuel. Sales over Christmas and New Year were particularly strong with group like for like sales over the 6 weeks to 7th January up by 3.7%. Morrisons puts its success down to various factors including being more competitive, being more friendly to its shoppers and having more tills open and shorter queues. It will be interesting to see whether other major supermarkets have also shared in an unexpectedly better festive season or whether Morrisons has come out tops.

Persimmon plc PSN provides an update for the year to the 31st December which indicates that the housing boom has continued to moderate compared to the glory days of years gone by but growth is still there aplenty. Revenue for the year rose by 9%, legal completions by 6% and  the increase in the average selling price was limited to 3%. Pre tax profits for the year are expected to be modestly ahead of market consensus.

Safestore Holdings SAFE is increasing its final dividend by 21.4% to 9.8p per share for the year to 31st October after a strong operational performance coupled with a combination of both organic and acquisitive growth. Group revenue for the year rose by 12.6% or 3.3% on a like for like basis at constant exchange rates. Strong potential growth for the new year is seen in the integration of Allied Self Storage and in the development of three new sites.

Tasty plc TAST claims that 2018 is expected to produce further deterioration in the difficult trading environment facing the restaurant sector. Progress has been made in the disposal of four under performing sites and  two further sites are now under offer.

Dechra Pharma plc DPH enjoyed strong trading during he half year to the 31st December with group revenue up by 10% at constant exchange rates or 11.5% at actual rates.

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