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Ryanair Succeeds Despite 1,000 Flight Cancellations
Ryan Air Holdings RYA suffered from over 1,000 flight cancellations in its first quarter, due to terrorism and strikes by French air traffic controllers, which have become such a problem that it has asked the EU to force the French to arbitrate instead of strike. Despite this, customer numbers rose by 11% but fares fell 10% to under 40 Euro leaving revenue for the quarter up by only 2%. Load factor did well with a further rise of 2 points to 94%.
Profit after tax for the quarter rose by 4% and basic earnings per share by 12%. 133 new routes will be opened in 2016. Ryanair is disappointed by Brexit but is unable to predict the effects, save that downside risks are felt to be greater.
Petra Diamonds PDL experienced further strong growth and record production for the year to 30th June but like for like rough diamond prices fell by 6% during the year leading to only a 1% rise in revenue. The prospects for 2017 look much better, with diamond prices having stabilised and production expected to rise by a further 25-30%, helping the company to achieve its 2018 targets, a year early.
Cranswick plc made a positive start to its year with strong volume growth of 12% in the 3 months to 30th June leading to an 11% rise in revenue. The company is selling its sandwich business with a turnover of £54m., for a consideration of £15m.
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Retailers On The Rebound
Marks & Spencer MKS what a pleasure it is to see a shopkeeper back in charge of Marks and not just any old shopkeeper but one who knows the business inside out, one who has started turning it round in a very short time and who sounds confident and is confident that he can do the job.
The first sign of his success is continuing strong growth in food plus the realisation that sales performance in Home and Clothing has been unsatisfactory and the determination to rectify it. Profit before tax for the 53 weeks to the 2nd April is down 18.5% and basic earnings per share by 16.2% but a final dividend of 11.9% makes an increase for the full year of 3.9%. Confidence in the future means that a special dividend of 4.6p for the first half of the current year will be payable in July. Central to Steve Rowe’s recovery plans is that Marks will put customers back at the heart of the business which is bad news for the Greek stores who may now be forced to start offering customer service occasionally.
Dixons Carphone DC has enjoyed a strong fourth quarter to finish off a very strong year. Like for Like revenue rose by 5% both for the quarter and for the year, with market share gains in the UK & Ireland, the Nordics and Greece. The UK and Ireland had an excellent year with like for like revenue up by 6%. Profit before tax is expected to have risen by 17% over last year.
Babcock BAB is raising its dividend for the year to 31st March by 9% after rises of 5% in profit before tax, 4% in revenue and 8% in basic earnings per share. It claims that it is well positioned for future growth and that the order book and bidding pipeline are impressive. 78% of revenue for the current year is already in place and 53% for 2017/18
Petra Diamonds PDL Christies Magnificent Jewels auction on the 9th June, will include the largest Fancy Intense Blue Diamond ever to be auctioned. Petra expects the 24.18 carat stone to fetch between $23 -$29 million. Petra’s share price now standing at 119p has more than doubled since November.
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HSBC Worried About China
HSBC (HSBA) has found slowing growth in China is creating a bumpier financial environment and becoming an increasing cause for concern. Reported profit before tax for 2015 rose by 1% (far, far less than Chinas reported growth ) and operating costs rose by a sturdy 5%. At least it had a year free of new scandals and penalties.
Associated British Foods (ABF) has found the recent weakness of sterling providing a welcome bonus during its first half year to 27th February. In the UK bakery market prices are at their lowest for 8 years, wich is of course a good thing, unless you happen to be in the UK bakery market. Primark sales for the half year are expected to be up by 7% but trading at Christmas was weaker because of unseasonably warm weather across Europe – this of course ensured that shoppers could go out and enjoy their Christmas shopping without having to trudge through ice, snow and sleet or even worse, remain housebound. .Any excuse is better than none for the busy executive.
Petra Diamonds (PDL) has been badly hit by lower diamond prices to the extent that it allows the dreaded word “impacted” to creep into its interim results. Net profit after tax for the six months to 31st December fell by 85%, revenue was down by 28% and adjusted EBITDA by 43%. Profit margins remained at a healthy 36% and production rose by 2%. The first tender of the second half saw both stable prices and more stable market conditions, which cold provide a ray of hope for the second half.
Bovis Homes (BVS) enjoyed record profits and revenue as the overheated housing market continued to boom in 2015. Profits for the year to the end of December rose by 20%, revenue by 17% and the full year dividend is increased by 14%. Forward sales at the year end were up by 14% on the previous year. Demand for new homes continues to run ahead of supply, thereby enabling 2015’s average selling price to be hiked by 7%.
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Diamonds – Starting To Sparkle Again ?
Gem Diamonds (GEMD) has risen by 20% since the 20th December, clawing back some of the falls suffered since last years peak of 165p in June. The rise comes despite the continuing weakness in the diamond market and is partly due to the Letseng mine, the jewel in GEMD’S crown and which specialises in producing high grade diamonds.
Decembers low for the shares was 98p and the recovery has taken the price up to today’s 117p.
Letseng is 70% owned by GEMD and 2015 production came in above guidance. 9 diamonds valued at more than $1m each were mined during the year, together with a further 3 stones of more than 100 carats each. The high quality of Letseng diamonds meant that the company enjoyed what it claims to have been a robust quarter 4, despite a further drop in average prices.
Overall the number of Letseng carats sold in 2015 was down by 6% but their value was down by a much higher 15%.
The damage done by the weakness of the diamond market is well illustrated by the fact that in the first half of the year the average price per carat for Letseng was $2264 but by quarter 4 this had fallen to $2117, despite a surge in the third quarter to $2578
GEMD is also making slightly optimistic noises about prospects for 2016.
It is interesting to note that Petra Diamonds PDL which we commented on in January has also made a recovery of about 20% despite 2015 revenue being down by 28%.
From a low of 69p on the 26th January Petra’s shares rose to 88p before falling back again to today’s 82p
Maybe those diamonds will continue to be the naughty girl’s best friend.
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Diamonds Will Still Be Forever
Unless the pessimists are right about the collapse of the world economy – and they never have been yet – the one sure thing to come bouncing back will be diamonds.
It only seems yesterday that the future for diamonds was bright, prosperous and everlasting. The Chinese and Americans were falling over themselves to buy and the Indian market was soaring as Indians rushed in their millions to marry and present the largest stone they could afford to their new bride. One of the strongest supports for the eternal value of diamonds, it was said, was that they had stopped making them.
The leader in the diamond market was seen as Petra Diamonds (PDL) which has today issued a trading update for its half year to the end of December.
Petra is still on schedule for its long held 2019 production target. Production for the half year was up by 2% but the weakness of the market was illustrated by a 28% decline in revenue to US$154m. and that included $10m from the sale of just one 23 carat pink diamond.
The rough diamond market where prices fell by 9%, was impacted by an oversupply of polished diamonds, liquidity issues, the strength of the US$ and a slowdown in demand from China. Only the weakness of the South African Rand helped to lift the gloom.
Petra’s cash at the bank fell by 75% from its June figure, inventories nearly doubled from 340,000 carats to 660,000 carats, as did net debt which rose from $171.7m to $324.4m. The company however describes its financial position as being robust as at 31st December.
Prices in the first half of 2016 are seen as becoming stable with an improvement in the second half.
The share price opened at 73p this morning having risen from a low of 54p in mid November, a rise which has made Petra into a nice little earner over a short term period of only two months. The present price is a long way from its 2014 peak of 220p. Even in January last year it was still at the dizzy height of 190p.
Diamonds are one of those rare commodities where demand is governed in the end by the retail trade, the strength of which can be judged by the results of the regular auctions which the diamond houses hold. In this respect diamonds are different to other commodities such as oil, copper, nickel iron ore etc.
There will be more crises this year there will be more media panic as economists and financial journalists vie to scare the pants off their readers and each other and write ever more desperate headlines in their battles for circulation.
But Indians will still marry in their millions, the Chinese economy is still growing strongly, for Americans the strength of the US$ is irrelevant and the US is, in any event, on its way to new wealth as it rapidly acquires domination of world oil markets.
Petra’s share price does not yet seemed to have formed a base, so there could still be more wobbles to come but already it has attractions which make it worth keeping an eye on.
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Petra Diamonds (PDL) Are Not Forever
Diamonds would always be in demand it was said, mainly because of the huge demand from India where every bride has to be, if not smothered in them, at least well decked out in glittering diamonds. Secondly there was the Chinese market with its new rich and new middle class demanding the same baubles as those rich western hussies.
Diamonds were also regarded as a precious asset because they are not making any more and shortages will drive diamond prices higher and higher.
The sad truth is that as with any any other commodity, times and fashions change. Petras revenue was down 10% for the year to the end of June. In July it said that diamond prices would be flat for 2015-16. Within weeks the market had deteriorated so rapidly that it was forced to announce that increasing volatility had made even that forecast uncertain and todays 1st quarter results show why.
In the quarter to 30th September diamond prices fell by 8.8% in USD terms. Petra did not hold its first diamond auction until October so it had no first half income at all and it now seems to regard continuing weakness of the rand as its only hope.
Following today’s announcement Petra’s share price has collapsed by a further 5.5p (6.5%) to 75.10p. a level not seen since 2011. A year ago it stood at 210p.
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