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Back in the Markets – Doc Holliday talks to Alan Green
Doc Holliday is back in the markets. He talks today to Alan Green. Among other things, we discuss the macro backdrop, Russia and Ukraine, the big money, motorcycles, cars, hiking, hillwalking and stocks including Petra Diamonds #PDL Centamin Gold #CEY Contango Holdings #CGO Semper Fortis #SEMP Nostra Terra Oil and Gas #NTOG and Wickes #WIX
Andrew Hore – Quoted Micro 23 November 2020
AQUIS STOCK EXCHANGE
Daniel Thwaites (THW) had a strong eleven months in the year to March 2020, but the final month was unsurprisingly poor for the brewer and pubs operator. Full year revenues edged up from £96.9m to £98.1m, while pre-tax profit fell from £4.5m to £3.6m. Net debt was reduced from £69.7m to £65.4m, helped by property disposals. No dividends are planned in the near future.
EPE Special Opportunities (ESO) has taken advantage of the strong Luceco (LUCE) share price and sold four million shares for total proceeds of £10m. EPE still owns a 24.9% stake.
KR1 (KR1) has participated in token generation by four platforms. There was a follow-on participation in a Plasm Network distribution event, while KR1 has also received tokens from ChainX, Edgeware and Phala Network. The Phala Network tokens have been sold for nearly $124,000.
BWA (BWAP) has given St George’s Eco-Mining Corp until 27 November to repurchase the company’s investment in Kings of the North Corp.
Tectonic Gold (TTAU) says that the first hole drilled at the Specimen Hill prospect in Queensland has signs of gold bearing mineralisation. A second hole is underway.
Evrima (EVA) and partner Power Metal Resources (POW) have published a drilling update for the Molopo Farms complex in Botswana. The first hole has been completed at the nickel sulphide and platinum project. This confirmed that it is a feeder zone. Samples will be tested. There is a four-hole drilling programme.
Cadence Minerals (KDNC) owns 30% of mining and exploration leases that form part of the Yangibana rare earth deposit. Drilling has confirmed that recent drilling results show an economic mineralised corridor 8km long.
Gledhow Investments (GDH) has taken a 4.82% stake in IamFire (FIRE).
NQ Minerals (NQMI) has raised £835,000 at 5.5p a share, which is below the 7p a share that a UK institutional investor paid last month. Early Equity (EEQP) raised £105,000 at 0.5p a share.
AIM
Trackwise Designs (TWD) is raising a further £11m at 200p in order to finance a new Improved Harness Technology (IHT) manufacturing site to quadruple capacity. That is a large discount to the market price of 320p. A further £1m could be raised via an open offer. Back in March, there was a £5.87m fundraising at 80p a share. That was at the time of the purchase of Stevenage Circuits for up to £2.457m. The rest of that cash was earmarked for capacity expansion. The subsequent orders received by Trackwise mean that further investment in capacity is required. The funding dilutes short-term earnings per share.
Agricultural supplies group Wynnstay (WYN) had a strong end to its financial year, particularly September and October. Feed sales were better than expected. There will be one-off costs for closing three sites. Shore Capital has upgraded its underlying pre-tax profit forecast from £6.7m to £8.1m. The dividend is likely to be maintained at 14p a share.
Immunodiagnostic Systems Holdings (IDH) has broken its record and published interim figures at 6.22pm on Friday. Revenues fell by 27% and the company made a bigger loss.
Staffline (STAF) is selling its apprenticeships business to Babington Business College for a nominal fee. The business was losing money in the first half of 2020, although it was a lower loss than the year before. Staffline will concentrate on recruitment and adult skills training.
Bion (BION) is establishing a biogas consortium with three other companies in Malaysia. The plan is to formalise the partnership so that a special purpose vehicle that would be 55%-owned by Bion will own and operate biogas assets of Bion and Green Lagoon Technology. The new venture would be the largest owner of biogas plants in Malaysia. Shareholders will have to approve the deal if it goes ahead. Bion will work with the other two companies to develop waste-to-energy projects.
Trading is ahead of expectations at Somero Enterprises (SOM) and this should enable a significant supplementary dividend for 2020. The concrete levelling equipment supplier is expected to end the year with net cash of $26m.
Dekel Agri-Vision (DKL) has completed the acquisition of the stake in the Cote d’Ivoire cashew nut processing project that takes its shareholding to 52%. October palm oil production was 1,818 metric tonnes and 1,843 metric tonnes was sold. The average price improved to €636/tonne.
Mirada (MIRA) has integrated Disney+ into its Iris platform for Televisa’s izzi pay TV platform in Mexico.
Invinity Energy Systems (IES) has gained a contract to deliver a 0.5MWh vanadium flow battery system to a site in California. This should generate £480,000in 2021. There is also an order for two smaller battery modules.
Three potential bidders are assessing offers for Telit Communications (TCM) and the latest is u-blox, which is considering an all-share offer worth 250p a share. DBAY Advisors and Lantronix are the other potential bidders.
MAIN MARKET
Packaging supplier Macfarlane (MACF) says that trading in the four months to October 2020 is ahead of the same period in 2019. Full year pre-tax profit is expected to be similar to last year at around £14m. It was previously expected to be more than 10% lower. Arden forecasts a total 2020 dividend of 2.4p a share.
Emmerson (EML) has completed the Environmental and Social Impact Assessment for the Khemisset potash project in northern Morocco.
Petra Diamonds (PDL) has an agreement in principle for a restructuring that involves the raising of money from a loan note issue and the remainder of the loan notes will be converted into shares equivalent to 91% of the enlarged share capital.
Thalassa (THAL) has invested £300,000 in foreign exchange and international payments firm Cornerstone FS for a 3.65% stake. This follows a £3m investment in 8% convertible loan notes in payment systems company Tappit Technologies.
Andrew Hore
Finsbury Food Faces Up to A Deflationary Market
Finsbury Food Group FIF claims it produced a strongly resilient performance in the year to 1st July, as it faced the challenges of a deflationary market which saw group like for like revenue remain flat. A final dividend of 2p per share is to be paid making a total of 3p for the year, a rise of 7.1%.. Sales and profit margins both increased and on a like for like basis adjusted profit before tax rose by 5.6%. The competitive success of the company is illustrated by a 15% rise in sales to continental Europe.
Dairy Crest DCG expects that profit for the half year to 30th September will be ahead of last year after Clover and Frylight showed strong volume growth and Cathedral City remained “the nations favourite cheese”. Problems remained with Country Life as sales volume was impacted by reduced promotional activity to try and mitigate the high price of cream. Seems a bit illogical to try and save money by reducing sales.
Hiscox HSX expects Hurricane Harvey will produce claims of some US$150m. which is within the range expected from a major hurricane. It is anticipated that 2017 will be a bad year for natural disasters. Harvey was the first major hurricane to hit landfall for 12 years and the aim is to pay claims quickly. Premiums, after a long period of decline, are expected to stabilise and then ti start increasing.
Petra Diamonds PDL Net profit after tax slumped by 69% for the year to 30th June as finances were impacted by delays in the expansion programme, the strength of the Rand against the dollar and rising costs, despite revenue for the year having rise by 11% on volume up by 8%. Basic earnings per share fell from 10.38 cents to 3.47cents. Net debt which is expected to start falling from the second half of 2018, rose from US$382m. to US$553m and lenders have agreed since the year end to waive two covenants. The signs for 2018 do not appear to be all that sparkling as like for like diamond prices fell by 3% at the first tender of the year.
MP Evans MPE is doubling its interim dividend after operating profit for the six months to 30th June more than tripled, following a 56% rise in crude palm oil production, at the same time as prices enjoyed a 10% rise. Crops rose by 26% as young trees began to mature.
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Corporate news review Monday 24 July 2017
Cranswick CWK – reports a positive start to the current financial year, with 3-month revenues to June 30 up 27%, while net debt of £18m is down £4m on this time last year. The board is confident in both outlook and continued long-term success and development of the business.
Earthport EPO – FY revenues are up c33% to £30.3m, with a adjusted EBITDA losses reduced by c65% to £2.4m Group cash balances at June 30 stood at £11.9m vs. £14.4m this time last year.
Mortice MORT – reports a 36.7% hike in FY revenues to $181.01m, with EBITDA up 114 % to $10.3 m. Following the pacing last December, Mortice reports net debt of $13.5m and balance sheet flexibility to pursue growth opportunities.
Ryanair RYA – Q1 results: CEO Michael O’Leary said the 55% increase in PAT of €397m was distorted by the absence of Easter in the prior year Q1. Highlights include: Traffic up 12% to 35m, load factor +2% to 96%, Av fare up 1% to €40.30, unit costs down 6%, €200m+ returned to shareholders via share buybacks and 397 B737’s in fleet at end of Q1.
Petra Diamonds PDL – issues a FY 2017 trading update and reports an 8% increase in FY production to 4.0 Mcts, with revenue up 11% to $477m. PDL reports year end cash of $205m, vs. $46.1m this time last year, and with Capex now in decline, debt levels will start to fall, expects to become free cashflow positive during FY 2018.
SThree STHR – reports encouraging H1 with accelerated momentum in Q2. Operating profits grew 26% year on year to £19.m, and the group reports a strong financial position with net cash of £5.2m, vs/ £4.4m debt this time last year. Says the macro-economic environment remains uncertain.
W.H. Ireland WHI – reports a 24% increase in H1 revenue to £14.9m, with pre-exceptional operating profits of £0.4m. WHI remains optimistic about the outlook for the second half of 2017 and the foundations for future growth into 2018.
Stagecoach Ups Dividend As Profits Disappear
Stagecoach Group SGC Does not expect to be profitable until 2019 so it is playing safe and to make sure that shareholders do not get too angry is raising the dividend for the year to 29th April by 4.4% to 11.9p per share. Basic earnings per share for the year fell from 17.1p to 5.5p and profit before tax on a statutory basis slumped from £104.4m to £17.9m. The company is now trying to focus on sustainable growth for the long term.
Dixons Carphone DC claims a good result for the year to 29th April, with a rise of 10% in headline profit before tax. On a statutory basis profit before tax rose from £263m. to £386m and basic earnings per share from 14p to 25.6p. The final dividend is to be increased to 7.75p. per share making a total increase for the year of 15%
Petra Diamonds Ltd. PDL Financial results for the year to 30th June will be below market expectations following a fall in production to 4.4m carats some 6.9%. lower than previous guidance. Despite this Petra is still on track to achieve record revenue and production for the full year as well as expecting to reach its target of 5m carats, a year earlier than planned.
Bunzl plc BNZL expects group revenue for the six months to 30th June will have grown by 7% at constant exchange rates, half of which will come from underlying growth and half from acquisitions. Exchange rate movements will provide a 12% benefit. Bunzl also announces that it has acuired a further three companies in Spain and Canada as part of its strategy for growth
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Computacenter Lags Behind in UK
Computacenter CCC has enjoyed buoyant market conditions in quarter one and believes that its 2017 performance will exceed current market expectations. Revenue in Germany was particularly strong with a rise of 32% in the quarter to the 24th April and France managing 6%. As seems to be happening so frequently this year, the UK lagged way behind with a fall of 1%. The company points out that these comparatives are made against a weak first half in 2016 and will return to a more normal state in the second half.
Petra Diamonds PDL. Production was flat during the third quarter, held back by unseasonable heavy rainfall in South Africa. Over the nine months to the 31st March however, the picture was brighter with production rising by 15% and Revenue by 27%. The volume of diamonds sold was up by 33%. Prices for rough diamonds rose by 2%, compared to the first half.
Fishing Republic FISH claims strong progress was made in 2016 as it sought to take advantage of the highly fragmented state of the fishing tackle market. Revenue rose by 41% and profit before tax by 32% in the year to 31st December. Website sales were up by 132% and in store sales by 82% or 16% on a like for like basis. Five new stores were opened during the year and there are more to come in 2017.
Lok’n store Group LOK is increasing its interim dividend by 12.4% after the first half year to 31st March produced strong trading and cash flow. Revenue rose by 4.5%, adjusted pre tax profit by 13.5% and net debt fell by 35% to £16.7m. Expansion continues with 4 more new stores set to open in 2017 and sites for a further four, already been identified.
FAIRFX Group FFX beat expectations in the year to 31st December. with turnover up by 27% and gross profit rising by 31.2%. The trading loss fell by 58%, ahead of expectations and a net profit was achieved in the 4th quarter. 2017 has got off to a strong start with first quarter turnover rising by 32.9%
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Paddy Power Hurt by Trump And Football Bets
Paddy Power Betfair PPB did not have a happy fourth quarter. Firstly it got its odds wrong on the US presidential elections and Trumps victory cost it almost £5m. On top of that its European sportsbook lost money on football bets in December and far too many customer friendly results reduced group revenue by some £40m. Adverse sports results reduced online gaming revenue by 3%, despite a 15% rise in sportsbook stakes. Australia helped to save the day with a rise of 25% in the stakebook and 18% in revenue. The year as a whole however still showed healthy growth.
Petra Diamonds PDL reports strong operational results for the half year to 30th December visit their website. Despite flat rough diamond prices, revenue rose by 48%, as diamonds sold surged by 47%. Production during the half year was up by 24% and the new Cullinan plant is due to be commissioned towards the end of the third quarter.
Safestyle UK SFE produced another year of record turnover in 2016 as strong trading continued throughout the year. Installations rose by 4.7%, frames manufactured by 3.2% and revenue for the year was up by 9.8% helped by price increases at the start of the year. Cautious optimism prevails for 2017
Thalassa Holdings THAL has doubts that the global recovery is convincing and believes that it is far weaker than meets the eye because there is no sign of it being matched by rising employment in the major industrialised countries. However it is anticipated that 2016 profits will exceed market expectations and the board is extremely pleased with the strength of the year’s operational and financial results. A new stock buy back programme will be introduced when the present scheme comes to an end. As for the outlook for 2017, Thalassa is cautiously optimistic
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Petra Diamonds (PDL) – Further upside on offer, says VectorVest
Jersey-based Petra Diamonds, (PDL.L) is a diamond mining company and a supplier of rough diamonds. Its Mining segment is engaged in the extraction and sale of rough diamonds from mining operations in South Africa and Tanzania. Its Exploration segment is engaged in exploration activities in Botswana. It has interests in five producing mines: Finsch, Cullinan, Koffiefontein and Kimberley Underground, all of which are located in South Africa, and Williamson, which is located in Tanzania.
On October 24th, PDL provided a Q1 trading update for the period 1 July 2016 to 21 October 2016. This period saw a series of tragedies, where three unrelated incidents lead to four Petra employees being fatally injured. Hitherto, the safety record for PDL employees had been excellent. Q1 production rose 30% to 1,097,523 carats, while period revenues were $94.7m from 745,447 carats sold. With net debt at Period end of $463.9m, Petra remains on track to become free cash flow positive from H2 FY 2017 onwards. CEO Johan Dippenaar said: “Operationally, the Group has made a strong start to FY 2017 delivering close to 1.1 Mcts for Q1 and we continue to expect full year production of 4.4 to 4.6 Mcts, in line with earlier guidance.”
The growth potential at PDL had been picked up nearly a year ago, when the stock appeared on the VectorVest VST-Vector metric table, a measure computed from the square root of a weighted sum of the squares of Relative Value (RV), Relative Safety (RS) and Relative Timing (RT). Since flagging the stock at just under 60p, the stock has progressed steadily through the year to the present 152p level. Even today PDL ranks as fair value on the RV and RS metrics, and is still excellent value on the RT metric.
The chart of PDL.L is shown above with earnings per Share (EPS) in the window below the price. Over the last year EPS has more than doubled and this is the engine that’s driven the share price higher. From May 2016 to September 2016 the share price consolidated within a triangular chart pattern. While coiling within this formation the EPS continued to rise. This adds enormously to the probability of the breakout following thought into a very tradeable move as happened in PDL.
Technicians use the extent of the previous upmove (known as the flagpole) to calculate the target from the breakout of the triangle. Using this technique the target from the breakout of the triangle is approximately 200.
VectorVest values the stock at 184.46p, meaning we see further upside on offer from current levels. Buy
David Paul
November 3rd 2016
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Cobham Now Fails to Meet Challenges
Cobham COB is yet another UK industrial giant which has proved incapable of meeting challenging trading conditions and the full year outcome will be behind management expectations, despite hopes of some improvement in quarter 4. The Chief Executive announced in August that he is stepping down and his replacement will be in place by January.
Plus 500 PLUS Despite new customers rising by 47% to record levels in quarter 3, revenue for the quarter fell by 4%. The strong growth of the first half has continued and the first 9 months has still produced record revenue with a rise of 14% and record new customers with a rise of 18%. The company is now to concentrate on increasing revenue for the rest of the year rather than catching new customers.
Fusionex Intl. FXI The momentum created in the first half has continued, leading to a strong financial performance and the company expects that full year EBITDA will be significantly ahead of market expectations.
Petra Diamonds PDL First quarter production to the 30th September rose by 30% producing revenue of $94.7m. This years second tender at which sales of 574 carats were achieved was held in October and produced sales of $66.4m. Petra says that it will be free cash flow positive as from the second half of 2017. Since last November the share price has risen from 50p to Fridays close at 139p.
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Cerillion CER expects full years results will show an increase of 6% and 8% respectively in revenues and EBITDA after continuing second half progress. Its performance is underpinned by a strong back order book.
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Dairy Crest To Be Impacted By Food Price Inflation
Dairy Crest Group DCG Expects a good first half performance, with Clover, Country Life and Frylight all showing strong volume growth for the half year which will end on the 30th September. Market share continues to be increased. However there are clouds on the horizon in the shape of price inflation which has already started and which the company expects to impact margins and butter volume in the second half. The milk price paid to farmers has risen by 12% and the price of cream has doubled in a very short period.
Petra Diamonds PDL Net profit after tax rose by 12% for the year to 30th June following only a 1% rise in revenue on production up by 16%. Petra describes these as a strong set of results despite pressure on prices in the first half and unusually it gives no further information on prices, preferring instead to the look to the future outlook it see for 2017 which it claims will be the year when all the promises start to become reality. Firstly it will enter the final stage of its expansion program and in the second half it expects to become free cashflow positive, despite some caution about future diamond prices but again no further information is provided.
Finsbury Food FIF performed strongly during the year to 2nd July with adjusted profit before tax up by 40.8% and the final dividend increased to to 1.87p, making a rise for the year of 12%. Like for like revenue was up by 5% and total revenue by 24.8%. 2016 was the year when it delivered on its growth strategy and rolled out vision and value at all levels, whatever that may mean. For 2017 claims to be excited about new innovations for muffins and doughnuts. The balance sheet is strong and it has made record capital investment for the future
Styles & Wood STY produced a strong performance for the half year to 30th June with good growth and strong cash generation. Significant success was achieved in securing long term contracts as its diversification program began to bite. The company returned to profitability with last years first half loss of £0.5m being turned into a profit of £0.4m and earnings per share coming in at 2.6p compared to last years loss of 10.2p per share. Net debt has been virtually halved.
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