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Ian Pollard – On The Beach #OTB hit by heatwave
On the Beach Group PLC OTB Revenue was heavily impacted by the unprecedented hot summer in Scandinavia leading to lower demand for holidays and widespread discounting of distressed product by Sweden’s leading tour operators. Nonetheless revenue at On the Beach Group for the year to the 30th September rose by 24.5%, profit before tax by 23.5% and adjusted earnings per share by 20.5%. The World Cup also suppressed holiday demand. The dividend is to be increased by 17.9% to 3.3p per share but.the consumer environment continues to remain challenging.
RPC Group plc RPC Enjoyed significant organic growth in China and US in the six months to the 30th September due to higher added value products. Revenue growth of 7% to £1,892m reflected continuing organic growth of 3.2%. Adjusted profit before tax fell by 2% or 5% on a statutory basis whilst adjusted basic earnings per share rose by 2% . The Interim dividend is increased by 4% to 8.1p per share representing the 26th consecutive year of dividend growth.
Telford Homes PLC TEF increased revenue by 31% in the six months to the 30th September Total profit before tax was up by16.1 per cent to £10.1m and the interim dividend is to be increased by 6.3% as the company made what it describes as pleasing progress, with a pipeline of 5,000 homes.
Senior plc SNR has issued a trading update for the ten months to the end of October and expects good progress to be made in 2018.
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BT Admits The Cost of Bad Management
BT Group BT.A airs its dirty washing in public after describing the year to the end of March as a challenging one, made worse by headwinds in the UK public sector. It is still managing to increase its final dividend by 10% despite a 19% fall in reported profit before tax, which slumped even more in quarter 4 with a fall of 48%. Reported basic earnings per share were also down by 33% for the year and 49% for quarter 4. And that is not the end of the bad news. Revenue for the current year is expected to be broadly flat and dividend growth will fail to reach the anticipated 10%.
To add to its list of excuses there were further headwinds from the international corporate market and the self inflicted in house disasters created by BT management itself, including hefty fines and avoidable problems in Italy. Management has learned lessons, it humbly claims. A bit late in the day perhaps but we shall see. The lack of heads rolling around on the boardroom and executive canteen floors may be regarded by some as a cause for concern.
Stobart Group STOB is proposing a 50% increase in dividends for the year to 28th February with a final payment of 4.5p per share. The year produced a statutory loss of £8m after deduction of non underlying items of £ 35.4m. On an underlying basis, profit before tax rose by 48.9% and basic earnings per share by 62.4%.
On The Beach Group OTB is paying a maiden interim dividend of 0.9p for the half year to 31st March, after a 7.3% increase in revenue led to a 33.8% surge in profit before tax. Adjusted earnings per share rose by 27.1% and net debt fell by some two thirds to £2.3m. The group describes this as a solid performance, strengthening towards the end of the half year and continuing to grow in the second half.
United Carpets UCG has announced a special dividend of 1p per share which will be paid on the 25th May
Supergroup SGP The year to 29th April produced good sales and profit growth, with revenue ahead by 27.2%. Profit for the year is ecpected to be in line with expectations at £86-87m
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Brand CEO Alan Green discusses On The Beach (OTB) on the Vox Markets podcast
Brand CEO Alan Green discusses On The Beach (OTB) with Justin Waite on the Vox Markets podcast
On The Beach (OTB) – VectorVest sees business model is uniquely placed to take advantage of difficult conditions in travel industry
On The Beach Group (OTB.L) is an online retailer of short-haul beach holidays. The company markets the On the Beach brand to the UK, and the International segment, which includes Sweden activity through Swedish Website (eBeach.se). It offers packaged holidays with options to book single element products, such as flights or hotels. Its technology platform enables customers to package the constituent components of their holiday, including flights and hotels, and transfers to customize holidays from flight and hotel combinations.
Its search facility connects customers to suppliers of travel products. Each travel product is booked separately. The Company is independent from airlines and hotels, so that it offers customers a range of flight and hotel products bookable through online channels, including desktop, mobiles, tablets, and applications and over the phone.
On December 6 2016, OTB published preliminary results for year to 30 Sept 2016. Group PBT increased by 776% to £16.9m (from a FY15 loss of £(2.5)m), on revenues 13% higher at £71.3m. At the end of the year net external cash rose to £26.1m (£10.9m), and a maiden final dividend of 2.2p per share was proposed. CEO Simon Copper said the results were “testament to the strength and flexibility of our agile business model amidst difficult conditions in the travel industry.” “Using our scale to drive exclusivity, our technology to drive innovation and our financial strength, ATOL protection and strong consumer brand to drive customer trust, we are well placed to capitalise on the structural changes in the market which will only accelerate given the difficult conditions in the market this year.”
The strong numbers in the results announcement simply confirmed the OTB investment opportunity, which had been picked up by VectorVest back in September after the share price had retraced from summer highs. The stock was flagged across a number of metrics, including Value, Relative Timing (RT), Growth to PE Ratio (GPE) and VST-Vector (VST) – the master indicator for ranking every stock in the VectorVest database. On value, a measure of a stock’s current worth, OTB is rated at 328.58p, well ahead of the current 263p.
The chart of OTB.L is shown above with the share price shown in candlestick format. The valuation is shown by the green line above the price and earnings per share (EPS)is charted by the blue line in the window below the price. The share is undervalued and growing EPS strongly and linearly. The share price has broken upwards through a major high (made in August 2016) and has pulled back and “kissed” this level which is marked as the horizontal blue line on the chart. With this resistance now in all probability becoming support the share is poised for further gains.
The Relative Safety of the share is less than 1 on the VectorVest program and this reflects and reinforces the risk associated with trading in small companies in their early stages of development. The opportunity is for those traders who have proven experience in managing risk.
Summary: OTB’s business model is uniquely placed to take advantage of the difficult conditions in the travel industry. The stock is also supported by a range of key VectorVest metrics outlined earlier in this blog, warranting a buy rating at current levels.
David Paul
December 14th 2016
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Braemar Shipping Fights Back
Braemar Shipping BMS Half year figures to 31st august illustrate the savage decline which has hit the worldwide shipping market. A fall in revenue from £79.6m to £70.2m resulted in earnings per share falling from 13.3p to 0.4p and operating profit declining from £5.3m to £0.3m. Braemar however gives the definite impression that it is fighting back successfully against the challenges which it faces. Shipbroking has produced a resilient performance in volatile conditions. The Technical division has suffered most but is being realigned to current market conditions and the group claims it is well placed to take advantage of any upturn. The interim dividend is unchanged.
GKN plc GKN The collapse in sterling gave GKN a massive bonus in the 9 months to the end of September with a 21% increase in sales. The currency benefit amounted to £ 474m or some 6% of the rise and three times the miserable 2% which came from from organic growth
Whitbread International WTB claims a good set of results with strong growth for the six months to the 1st September and is raising its interim dividend by 4.9%. Powered by Premier Inns and Costa total revenue grew by 8.1% as both divisions increased market share. Premier Inns revenue rose by 8.9% or 2.4% on a like for like basis whilst total sales at Costa were up by `10.7% or 2.3% on a like for like basis
Pendragon PDG Third quarter sales to 30th September have risen by 5.7% and like for like profit is up by 6.3%. Priority is being given to used car sales, which have been particularly strong with revenue growth of 8.3%. The company has not noticed any change in customer attitudes which can be attributed to the referendum.
On The Beach Group OTB Despite terrorist attacks and the slump in the pound OTB delivered a year of highly profitable growth and traded well during the 12 months to the end of September. UK revenue grew by 12% which was less than expected but underlying profit before tax will be marginally ahead of the top end of market expectations. Since the last update in July demand for beach holidays has remained resilient.
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