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Ian Pollard – Persimmon – Strong Growth As Sales Decline
NEXT plc NXT first quarter trading to the 27th April was saved only by online sales which rose by 11% and are forecast to continue to grow at the same rate for the remainder of the year. Full price retail sales for the quarter fell by 3.6%. The picture for the remainder of the year is even bleaker with the forecast decline more than doubling to 8.6%. Group profit before tax for the year to January 2020 is expected to show a fall of 1.1%
Persimmon plc PSN Claims that since the start of the year the new build housing market has proved resilient with high levels of employment, and low interest rates, freely available and attractive mortgages, continuing to support consumer confidence. The Group’s current forward sales position is described as being strong with total forward sales revenue, taken to date in 2019, of £2,698 million down from £2,798 million in 2018. Most companies take the view that a rise in sales is a better test of performance.
Rank Group plc RNK experienced flat like-for-like revenue for the quarter ended 31 March 2019, with total revenue up 1%. The poor start to the year with declines of 6% at Grosvenor and Mecca, improving to 0% and !% respectively and leaving group revenue for quarter 3 level, up from a 5% fall in the first quarter.
IWG plc IWG Growth remained strong during the quarter to the 31st March with Group revenue increasing by 10.6% at constant currency rates. The improvement was driven by double digit revenue growth in the Americas, Asia Pacific and EMEA. France, Germany and Spain, also contributed very strongly.
Redhall Group plc RHL the Board anticipates that the full year trading performance for the Group will be materially below its previous expectations. . These were based on the group winning a number of new contracts, which would deliver a strong trading performance in the second half of the year but delays in the award of a number of these projects and a reduction, in the value of Jordan Manufacturing’s contract for a major nuclear infrastructure programme have impacted those expectations. The groups pipeline of opportunities remains strong and the Board anticipates that it will be able to deliver steady growth into 2020.
Sainsbury J. plc SBRY announces underlying profits up 7.8 per cent, ahead of target and final dividend up 11.3% making a total increase for the year of 7.8 per cent.
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Ian Pollard – NEXT Retail’s Big Slide Over Christmas And Full Year
Next plc NXT Full price sales for the Christmas trading period (between Sunday 28 October and Saturday 29 December) rose by 1.5%. Whilst November sales were disappointing this was made up for by strong sales in the three weeks before Christmas and a good half-term holiday week at the end of October. Full price online sales though show the way the retail world is going with rises of 15.2% over the Christmas period and 14.9% over the full year. Retail sales as a whole however were fairly disastrous with falls of 9.2% over Xmas and 7% over the full year.
Alpha FX Group plc AFX Trading during the final quarter to the end of December has continued to be strong and it is anticipated that earnings will be ahead of market expectations. Both the corporate business and the new institutional subsidiary performed strongly and the next financial year is expected to see further increases in investment and full advantage being taken of market opportunities.
Getech Group GTC has announced a multi product sale to a leading global oil and gas company, which will generate gross income of US$3.2 million, most of which will be recognised in the financial year to the 31st December. Revenue for 2018 is now expected to exceed that delivered in FY 2017 by at least 10%.
Tracsis plc TRCS has signed what it describes as a “significant” five year Framework Agreement with a major Train Owning Group for its TRACS Enterprise product. The Agreement covers all of the Operator’s individual Train Operating Companies within the UK plus other franchises that it may win in the future. the Directors believe this is a key win that will lead to significant recurring revenue opportunities both during the Agreement and beyond.
Corero Network Sec. plc CNS Orders for 2018 are expected to be approximately 20% higher than in 2017, following record order levels in the second half and the final quarter. Strong demand for the company’s Smartwall Threat Defence System is expected to show growth of approximately 20% over the previous year.
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Ian Pollard: Fastjet On The Brink
Fastjet plc FJET admits that it has not received the additional funding which it needed by the end of October if it was to continue operating, It has however been able to continue operating beyond that deadline due to some improvement in trading and cash generation. This has allowed it further time to continue discussions with its major shareholders and creditors and these have in part been positive. However without a successful conclusion “in the coming days” it will be unable to continue trading as a going concern.
Next plc NXT is maintaining the full year sales and profit guidance issued 5 weeks ago, despite full price sales growth in quarter 3 slowing substantially to 1.3% compared to the average of 3.1% over the first nine months. Retail sales were the problem with a third quarter fall of 8% whilst online helped to save the day with a rise of 12.7%.
Standard Chartered plc STAN significantly increased its profitability during the first nine months of the year, with underlying profit before tax of $3.4bn rising by 25%. In quarter 3 to the end of September this rose further to 31% whilst on a statutory basis the increase was 37%. Income from Africa & Middle East was down 5 per cent or 3 per cent on a constant currency basis. Macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds continued to impact performance in the third quarter particularly in the UAE. In Europe & the Americas things were better with income rising by 6 per cent. Management takes credit for the fact that the bank now makes as much profit in a quarter as it did in all of 2016
Computacenter CCC is having to find excuses as to why quarter 3 saw a decline. The only thing it can come up with is that 2017 was better or in technical jargon the comparatives were significantly more challenging. Thus overall Group revenue for the third quarter declined year-on-year by three per cent to £900 million both in real and in constant currency. The UK was particularly hit in the third quarter with a 9% decline in overall revenue although this has still lead to a year-to-date increase of 17 per cent. Germany and France also suffered from third quarter declines. The International sector on the other hand grew by 13%. Expectations for the fourth quarter are for improved growth but not at the levels seen in the first half of the year.
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Ian Pollard – More headwinds, volatility, weak & challenging markets and footfall
Next plc NXT First half full price sales were up +4.5% on last year,. ahead of the +1.0% guidance given in January and the +2.2% given in May and even coming as a surprise to Next itself which admits that its performance was flattered by the unusually warm summer. The reality is that the market is still volatile and those headwinds continue to batter retailers in General. The even harsher truth is that over the past 10 years retail sales have fallen by 10% in whilst like-for-like sales are down by 32%. Next even admits that it does not know what the high street will look like in 10 years’ time which means that future will involve a constant process of reinvention and experimentation in the hope that somewhere along the line, it will get things right.
Imperial Brands IMB updates that the business is performing well with the tobacco business delivering a much stronger second half and volumes for the full year outperforming the industry. Revenue growth will remain in line with previous guidance.
Card Factory plc CARD describes its interim results for the half year to 31st July as “solid”. Online sales growth was strong but like for like sales fell by 3.1% hit by the usual disasters of a weak consumer environment, particularly challenging footfalls across the high street and those dreaded headwinds the effects of which are being mitigated through improved efficiency.Profit before tax and basic earnings per share grew by 17.2% and 17.1% respectively and the shareholders are of course being looked after with a special dividend of 5p per share on top of the maintained ordinary dividend of 2.9p.
Harvey Nash Group HVN has now substantially completed its transformation programme and despite a weaker market, produced a robust performance in the half year to the 31st July. Gross profit rose by 7.2% and on a like for like basis was even stronger with a rise of 11.1%. Profit before tax increased by 19.2% and earnings per share by 22.6%. The interim dividend is to be increased by 6.5% to 1.75p per share. All this, says the CEO, achieved in a challenging market with the UK business delivering a a robust performance and Vietnam performing strongly.
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Ian Pollard – Next #NXT succumbs to High St woes
NEXT NXT colder weather and a big rise in online sales helped Next to beat expectations for full price sales in the 54 days between 1st November and the 24th December, with a rise of 1.5% as against an expected fall of -0.3%. Within that figure however, retail sales were a disaster with a fall of 6.1% compared to a rise of 13.6% in online sales. Trading for the year as a whole, the 52 weeks to January 2018,was nothing less than disastrous with group profit before tax down by 8.3% slightly better than the expected 9.3%. For 2018 the decline is expected to continue albeit at a reduced rate as subdued consumer demand and a continued decline in real incomes continue to wreak havoc on the high street.
Plus 500 PLUS expects revenue and profits for the year to the 31st December will be ahead of expectations after record revenues were achieved in the fourth quarter, as well as 246,000 new customers.
Oncimmune ONC listed on AIM in May 2016 with its main aim being to enter the Chinese market with its early cancer detection test. The Chinese are heavy smokers and lung cancer deaths alone, now exceed 700,000 each year, due in part to late detection. Oncimmune’s test can detect cancer up to 4 years earlier than conventional methods and the company announced over Christmas that it has reached a distributorship deal with Genostics, a Hong Kong company which has acquired over 6 million shares in Oncimmune at a price of £1.56. Oncimmunes shares jumped to £1.29 yesterday, a rise of 23%
December traffic statistics saw Wizz Air increase capacity by 19.4% and passengers by 19.8%, with load factor up slightly at 87.5%. Ryanair December traffic rose by 3% whilst load factor was up by 1% to 95%
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450,000 British Companies Financially Distressed
Begbies Traynor BEG announces doom and gloom for many British companies with 450,000 of them suffering from signs of financial distress, even before the effects are felt of any interest rate rise on Thursday. The number has risen by 27% from a year ago and 250,000 have become “zombie” companies with no net worth and who will not have the reserves available to survive increasing employment costs due to changes in the minimum wage and the Revenues crackdown on personal service companies.
Next plc NXT is unable to determine any underlying sales trend in the quarter to the 31st October, the main impact appearing to have come from the weather which does not seem to say much for management’s marketing skills. Sales rose significantly in August and September coinciding with the arrival of warmer weather and temperatures which were higher than last year. The end result is that third quarter full price sales rose by 1.3% compared to last year but 1.2% of that growth came from new space. Total sales including markdowns rose by 0.8% but for the year to date they are down 1.2%. The future does not look any brighter and a further decline of 0.3% is expected for quarter 4.
Paddy Power Betfair PPB found quarter 3 to the end of September to be encouraging and trading since the interim results has been good. The international businesses have performed well with Australia producing an exceptional revenue rise of 29% followed by the US with a rise of 18%. Group revenue for the quarter was up by 9% led by 11% in sports revenue but offset by a 3% drop in online revenue. Underlying EBITDA rose by 7% and it is anticipated that full year EBITDA will be between £450 and £465m.
Biome Technologies BIOM saw third quarter revenue jump from £0.9m. to £1.5m. making a rise of 46% for the year to date and the fourth consecutive quarter of EBITDA profitability. The progress and momentum seen so far are expected to continue for the remainder of the year.
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NEXT- Another Special Dividend As Decline Continues
NEXT plc NXT does not expect any recovery during the remainder of the current financial year despite second quarter full price sales having risen by 0.7% compared to the first quarter when they were down 3%. Retail sales for the half year to 29th July were down by 7.4% whereas Directory sales rose by 11.4% but shareholders are being kept happy with another 45p per share special dividend to be paid on the 1st November. . The forecast for the full year to January 2018 is that the decline in profit before tax will remain unchanged from previous guidance at between -13.9% to -6.4%. The problem seems to be half year and end of year sales which act as a drag on the total sales performance.
Aviva plc AV is increasing its interim dividend by 13% after the fourth consecutive year of growth in half year operating profit, this time by 11%. Sales have increased across the group with strong growth in Europe and the UK.
Centamin CEY Gold production in the second quarter rose by 14% over the first half but is still down on last year and whilst profit before tax rose from the first quarters level, for the half year as a whole it is only just over half of last years figure, at $38m. Production costs at US$609 per oz were also well up on last years figure of US$461. Nonetheless the interim dividend is increased by 25% to 2.5 US cents per share and the second half is expected to be strong with full year production guidance of 540 oz. being maintained.
Portmeirion Group PMP produced an 18% rise in profit before tax for the half year to the 30th June and gives itself a very restrained pat on the back, describing its performance as “positive”. Revenue rose by 16%, EBITDA by27% and earnings per share by 21%. The interim dividend is to be increased by 5.7%.
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Next Celebrates Falling Profits With a Special Dividend
Next NXT Celebrates its weak trading performance by announcing a special dividend of 45p per share to be paid on the 1st August. Total sales for the 13 weeks to to 29th April fell by 3% as mayhem on the high street continued. On a like for like basis, new space which added 1.6% to sales, made the like for like fall look even worse, at 4.6%. Profit before tax is expected to get worse as the year progresses with the best expectation now being for a fall of 6.4% compared to the previous hope for a fall of at best, only 1.3%.
Morrisons W. MRW performed well in the 13 weeks to the 30th April as it became more popular with customers attracted by lower prices. Like for like volume became more positive and expectations for the full year remain unchanged.
Royal Dutch Shell RDSA enjoyed a strong first quarter as debt was reduced and the dividend ( unchanged) was covered for the third consecutive quarter. Industry conditions in chemicals became stronger, total bpf oil equivalent per day rose by 2%, realised prices for global liquids rose by 64% and for natural gas by 10%. In come before tax rose from a loss of $642m in the same quarter last year to a profit of over $ 3 billion. However impacts are expected in the 2nd quarter from lower gas volumes and upstream earnings will suffer from divestments and lower production in the Netherlands.
Ladbroke Coral LCL expects full year results will be inline. From st January to 23rd. April group net revenue rose by 5% after falls in retail net revenue of 2% in the UK and 3% in Europe. Digital net revenue helped to save the day with a rise of 22%.
esure Group ESUR has made a strong and better than expected start to the year with a rise in gross written premiums of 29% between the 1st January and the 23rd April. Moror led the way with a rise of 29%.
G4S plc GFS enjoyed a strong start to the year with revenues rising by 8.9% at constant exchange rates in the three months to the 31st March. Developed markets showed double digit organic growth whilst emerging markets remained flat.
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Fenner In Recovery Mode
Fenner FENR now expects results for the current year will be comfortably ahead of previous expectations as a result of gains in market share and refocusing of the businesses. These factors have helped to create an improving trend in order intake and a stronger market position in the US. Australia is doing well and results are ahead of last year.
Crawshaw Group CRAW With like for like sales down by 3.8% for the 5 weeks from 29th November to 31st December and like for like customer numbers down by 4.2%, Crawshaw claims that it has continued to build on previous progress, presumably wishing to rely for justification of its claim that total sales and customer numbers for the same period both rose by 13%. At least the figures for the 5 week Christmas period showed an improvement on the previous 4 weeks like for like figures when sales had slumped by 8.1% and customer numbers by 9.7%.
Gear4music G4M enjoyed a strong sales performance in the last 4 months of the year and full year profits are now expected to be ahead of the increase indicated at the half year stage. UK sales rose by 29%, Europe and the rest of the world by by 129% and total sales by 55%. For the year to date growth has totaled 63%.
easyJet EZJ With December traffic figures up by 15.1% easyJet is not allowing itself to be left behind by Ryanair. The rise in load factor at 3.3% was also similar to that of its competitor, although over the rolling 12 month period, load factor did slip slightly by 0.1pp
Sky plc SKY Broker Investec has upgraded its investment rating on Sky plc SKY from reduce to hold and has raised its price target from 800p to 1075p.
Next NXT has suffered from yesterdays results with Citigroup cutting its price target from 4,800p to 4,100p
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Next Finds Horror On The High Street
Next NXT issues a stark warning about current profits and the level of both this years and next years sales. It failed to live up to its own expectations for 4th quarter sales in the face of what it describes as exceptional levels of uncertainty. Between the 1st November and 24th December sales fell by 0.4%. For the year to 24th December they fell by 1.1% even after taking into account new selling space. Even worse, end of season Sales were down by 7%. Group profit before tax for the full year to 17th January is now expected to be down by 3.6% and the downturn is expected to continue with a further warning that the company is budgeting for full price sales for 2017-18 to be down by a further 4.5%.
Ryanair RYA On the back of lower fares, December traffic surged by 20% to 9m passengers with load factor rising by 3% over a year ago. Even lower fares are promised for the coming summer.
Staffline Group STAF has experienced strong second half trading and expects full year profits to be announced on 25th January, will be in line.
Spectra Systems SPSY Expects that profits for the year to 31st December will significantly exceed expectations, with revenue also ahead.
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