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Financial Times – Wary investors drawn to gold’s allure
Central-bank buying pushes prices higher after two tough years for gold bugs
Henry Sanderson and Neil Hume JANUARY 16, 2019
If gold is anything to go by, investors are increasingly anxious about the state of the world.
Volatile equity markets and fears of a global economic slowdown have helped gold rally 10 per cent from its August lows, putting it among the best performing metals over that period.
It is a sharp contrast to much of the past two years, when rising US interest rates, a strong dollar and buoyant equity markets hurt gold bugs and the shares of miners such as Barrick Gold, Newmont Mining and Goldcorp. And when there was a correction in US stocks in early 2018, the gold price failed to benefit.
Almost a year on, the big question is whether 2019 could prove a profitable year to own gold, which is typically bought as hedge or haven by investors. The amount of physical gold in exchange traded funds has risen to 71.9m ounces, close to the record high of 72m touched in May 2018.
“We haven’t seen flows like this since the first half of 2016 — when the gold market really took off,” says Joe Foster, a portfolio manager at VanEck in New York.
“There seems to be a change in sentiment and investor psychology. People are waking up to the fact that we are late in the economic cycle and we could be ending [it] in the next year or two. That brings more risk into the system; that’s why gold is moving up.”
Those flows, along with investors covering their bets against gold, have helped the yellow metal’s price recover from the 18-month low of below $1,200 a troy ounce touched last August.
Analysts say there are a number of reasons to think the gold price can break through the $1,300 mark and push higher.
These include still-fragile stock markets, the expectation that the Federal Reserve will hold off from interest-rate increases this year, and a weaker dollar, which makes the metal more appealing. Rising US rates have been a drag on gold since the metal provides no yield.
Goldman Sachs, one of the most influential banks in commodity markets, raised its gold forecast last week and now expects a gold price of $1,425 over the next year.
“To take a view on gold, you have to first take a view on broader markets,” said Tom Holl, BlackRock portfolio manager, natural resources. “If we continue to see elevated levels of macroeconomic uncertainty and risk adversity, then gold will probably continue its positive momentum.”
Some investors believe rising concerns over US debt levels could sharpen gold’s allure, according to John Hathaway, a senior portfolio manager at Tocqueville Asset Management in New York.
Last week, Fitch Ratings warned that a continued government shutdown in the US could lead to a credit downgrade on the country’s debt, which is rated AAA by the agency.
“The US is beginning to sport a debt-to-GDP ratio worthy of any banana republic,” says Mr Hathaway. “We believe that exposure to gold is both timely and potentially rewarding.”
Higher levels of debt will also make it hard for the Fed to raise rates and tighten monetary policy, adds Trey Reik, a senior portfolio manager at Sprott Asset Management in Connecticut.
“I do think the dollar is in the midst of a long-term weakening,” he says. “You cannot raise rates with that much debt in the system without causing economic collapse.”
The buying of gold by central banks is also at its highest level since 2015, as many authorities remain keen to diversify away from the dollar. Standard Chartered estimates that central banks bought 500 tonnes of gold last year. China was among the buyers, adding almost 10 tonnes, following more than two years of unchanged holdings.
“While Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkey dominate central bank purchases, a host of other central banks entered the official sector gold market last year,” says James Steel, chief precious metals analyst at HSBC.
Mr Steel notes that the list includes Hungary, which had been out of the gold market for decades, with the exception of modest purchases in 2017. The central bank of Poland also purchased gold for the first time in many years, he adds.
However, the multiple disappointments for gold bulls over the past year leave some wary. Gold has not breached the $1,300 level since June.
While ETF holdings have risen to their highest level in five years, traders in the futures markets have not yet placed significant bets on higher prices, according to ICBC Standard Bank, a unit of China’s largest lender.
“On the one hand this does present an opportunity for gold prices to move higher still, if investor length now comes into the market,” says ICBC analyst Marcus Garvey.
“However, on the other, it begs the question as to why this has not yet happened, given the number of catalysts already present. If any of the recent tailwinds for gold were to abate, it increases the likelihood for a period of price consolidation.”
Central Victoria gold rush revival continues as ECR Minerals applies for licensing at an additional four sites following Newmont’s application a few weeks ago.
- Newmont Mining and ECR Minerals join Central Victoria gold rush revival
- Fosterville mine in Victoria expected to break production record
- Untouched potential in Victoria
- ECR Minerals fully funded through to June 2020 following strategic financing round
In recents weeks it was revealed that world’s second largest gold producer Newmont Mining (NYSE:NEM) had applied for the licensing of a large area of land in Victoria, bordering ECR Minerals (AIM:ECR) Bailieston and Moormbool gold projects.
ECR have responded by announcing four new license applications that will expand two of their existing holdings in the Victoria region. These include three strategically placed sites in the Bailieston/Moormbool project area which lie south and south west of the area Newmont recently applied for. It also includes an area that will expand the highly promising Creswick project over a southern portion of the Dimocks Main Shale (DMS) – which is believed to sit between two historically significant mining areas, estimated to have produced 15 million ounces of gold.
For ECR, Newmont’s application to move in next door was without a doubt further encouragement of the huge potential of their existing sites and appears to have encouraged them to move fast and extend licensing in strategic areas in the Victoria region.
ECR CEO Craig Brown said that the application submitted by Newmont bordering Bailieston and Moormbool gold projects “is an important ratification of our strategic Australian gold positioning.”
The presence of Newmont certainly adds weight to the potential prospectivity of the area. Brown added that ECR’s exploration work at Bailieston “has recently demonstrated gold prospectivity as highlighted by the results of our Bailieston sampling programme announced on 28 September 2018 with gold grades up to 67.4g/t.”
Victoria Gold Rush Revival
While the licenses all remain pending, the moves support what appears to be a highly promising revival for gold mining in the Victoria region.
Early this year Melbourne Mining Club chairman Richard Morrow told the The Australian Mining Review “The success of Kirkland Lake Gold at Fosterville has really lifted the profile of Victoria as a place to find gold, especially high-grade, underground mineable gold” (Australian Mining Review). The statement came after an estimated 1.7 million ounces worth approximately $2.85 billion was discovered at the mine in 2017 (Premier).
In November, Kirkland Lake Gold revealed the Fosterville mine located just 30km away from ECR’s Bailieston project had produced “exceptionally high grades”, with the mill grade in Q4
2018 averaging over 35.0 grams per tonne. Fosterville is now expected to break its own record quarterly production in the fourth quarter of 2018, pushing full-year predictions up to 330,000 ounces (Mining.com). Beyond this, it expects to achieve over 500,000 ounces per year by 2020.
Fostervilles ongoing success and the latest applications from ECR and Newmont certainly seem to support Richard Morrow’s statement. If accepted they will continue to push Victoria back into the spotlight amongst gold miners – a position it’s not held since the famous Victoria gold rush in the early 1850s.
Untouched potential in Victoria area
The 1850’s gold rush saw production skyrocket in Victoria as thousands of miners moved to the area after strong mineralisation was discovered in Ballarat in 1851. Levels were so significant that for a number of years gold output in Victoria exceeded that seen anywhere else in the world, bar the more extensive fields of California. Victoria’s greatest yield for one year was in 1856, when 3,053,744 troy ounces of gold were extracted.
However, by the early 1860s most diggers had moved North to New South Wales, then Queensland and across to Western Australia (WA), which now produces the majority of Australia’s gold. Despite this short period of extensive mining the state has still produced over 2,400 tonnes of gold or 32 percent of all the gold mined in Australia and 2 per cent of all the gold ever mined in the world. While WA has produced more, with 3,275.8 tonnes, much of this has been thanks to the booms of the last two decades where new technology has enhanced the discovery and extraction of gold.
WA has also undergone six separate development phases since the 1890s compared to Victoria’s initial rush in the 1850s as well as its current phase. However, contrasted on a yield per area basis, Victoria has an order of magnitude greater than any other Australian state producing an average of 10.8kg of gold / km2. Generating these significant levels of gold in such a period of time, without much of today’s technology would suggest the area remains full of potential – as the recent reports from Fosterville and ECR suggest.
If the old saying ‘the best place to find gold is in the shadow of the headframe of an old mine’ holds true then ECR are ideally placed to make the most of this golden opportunity. As well as Bailieston, they have licences granted in Avoca (EL5387), Timor (EL6278), Moormbool (EL6280) and Creswick (EL6184). As seen on the map above, all of these projects lie within close, if not direct proximity to historical sites known for significant levels of gold mining since the 1850s. These include; Ballarat, which ‘at its peak between 1852-1853 was recognised as probably the richest alluvial goldfield in the world, the Mt Alexander field at Castlemaine which in December 1851 was yielding 23,000 oz of gold a week, Creswick as already highlighted, as well as, Maryborough and Maldon (Earth Resources).
ECR Minerals fully funded through to June 2020
ECR has kicked off 2019 in style, signalling it’s ambitions to become a major Australia gold explorer with the announcement on January 2nd 2019 that it has applied for nine new exploration licences in an area called the Windidda gold project in Yilgarn, Western Australia. The Yilgarn Craton contains evidence of the oldest crust on Earth, and at almost 4km long, 1.5km wide and 500m deep, it’s world-famous Super Pit produces up to 800,000 ounces of gold per year alone.
There appears to be an overwhelming tide of evidence, both current and historical supporting further exploration and development at Central Victoria. While the Newmonts and Fostervilles will continue exploration and production at their own rate, based on the recent reports of high yields and strong yield per area results, it is ECR Minerals with 5 licensed sites and a host of additional plots pending that could be the investment opportunity of the century, and in pole position to capitalise on the untouched potential of Central Victoria. Clearly investors and shareholders think so too: ECR announced a strategic financing round, which together with warrants and shares totalling GBP1.77m will see the company fully funded to pursue operations through to June 2020. Directors Craig Brown and David Tang
both participated in the financing round. Either way, ECR investors could be sitting on a gold mine in the not so distant future.
By Harry Dacres-Dixon
References:
Australian Mining Review – http://australianminingreview.com.au/mining-in-victoria-good-as-gold/
Brand Communications – http://www.branduk.net/ecr-minerals-ecr-new-licence-applications-australian-gold-portfolio/
Earth Resources – http://earthresources.vic.gov.au/earth-resources/geology-of-victoria/exhibitions-and-Imagery/ history-mining-victoria
Mining.com – http://www.mining.com/kirkland-lake-golds-aussie-operation-breaks-production-record/ Premier – https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/bendigos-billion-dollar-gold-rush/
Value the markets – http://www.valuethemarkets.com/index.php/2018/11/15/exclusive-newmont-mining-secures-li cense-area-next-ecr-minerals-baileston-gold-project/
Geology for Investors – https://www.geologyforinvestors.com/gold-archean-greenstone-belts/
Kirkland Lake Gold – https://www.klgold.com/news-and-media/news-releases/default.aspx
Other companies http://kzr.com.au/wp-content/uploads/austocks/kzr/2018_06_20_KZR_1529488920.pdf