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Ian Pollard – McCarthy & Stone MCS supported by large price increases
McCarthy & Stone plc MCS Despite trading in January and February having remained resilient MCS can not avoid sounding a bit worried in today’s update and is relying on trading being weighted towards the second half to help it recover from the first half where it had to rely for support on a large increase of 14% in the average selling price. . Its problem appears to be that even with such a whopping increase in average prices, it only managed to increase first half revenue by less than 1%, up from £238m. to £240m.. Basic maths would indicate that without the price rises, first half revenue could have fallen. It also admits that first half operating profit is likely to be in the order of about 12% of current market expectations for the full year. A further sign of the need for caution is that first half planning applications slumped from 34 to 21. Net debt for the full year is expected to have doubled from £30m. to £76m.One healthier sign is that the forward order book is up by 16% but of real concern is the impact which the proposed changes to ground rents will have on the company which is taking on the government in an attempt to ease that impact.
Just Eat plc JE. produced an excellent performance in 2017 with revenue rising by 30% on an organic basis. Despite that the company still made a statutory loss of £76m. despite 10.5m. active customers purchasing £1.9 billion pounds worth of food. International revenue rose by 75% and now amounts to 44% of the total. EBITDA rose by 42% and basic earnings per share by 38%. For 2018 EBITDA is expected to rise to between £165m and 185m.
Intertek Group plc ITRK is increasing its final dividend from 43p to 47.8p per share making a total increase of 14.3% or 2017. Adjusted profit before tax rose by 9.5% and diluted earnings per share by 10.4% at constant exchange rates.
Ashtead Group plc AHT continued to perform well in the third quarter to the end of January, with strong growth in each of its markets. Over the first nine months, profit before tax rose by18% on a statutory basis and by 24% on an underlying basis. Revenue increased by 20% and earnings per share by 130% on a statutory basis.
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House builders sales static but forward orders surge
Barratt Developments BDEV Completions in the year to the 30th June rose by a lowly 0.4% on 2016 but it was still the highest volume for nine years, enabling Barratt to claim another excellent year which produced a strong operational and financial performance. The final dividend is being increased by 39% in addition to a 17.3p per share special dividend. Profit before tax rose by 12.1% and basic earnings per share by 11.3p. No mention is made this time round of what happened to the average house price but the tiny rise in completions produced a 9.4% rise in revenue, so perhaps that speaks for itself. The future still looks rosy with forward sales as at the 3rd September up by 13.8%.
McCarthy & Stone MCS managed to complete only 6 more sales in the year to the 31st August than it did in 2016 despite a strong recovery in the second half which saw a strong upward momentum in the average selling price, which is set to continue into the current year. For the year as a whole the average selling price rose by 3% and revenue by 4%. The forward order book at he year end was 21% head of last year.
Sports Direct SPD provides a trading update ahead of today’s much anticipated AGM. The only statistic provided is that underlying EBITDA for 2018 is expected to grow by between 5% and 15% which appears to indicate a certain amount of uncertainty amongst senior management as to the eventual outcome of the years trading. The company’s obsession with becoming the Selfridges of sport seems to continue and Mike Ashley admits it is their strategic goal and that in fact they are exceeding their expectations in moving towards it.
WANdisco WAND claims an outstanding performance in the six months to the 30th June with total bookings up by 73%, revenue by 71% and its first ever positive EBITDA of $0.3m. compared to last years first half loss of $4.5m. The result of this success is that the statutory operating loss fell from $17.9m to $3.8m. The order book is strong and the second half sales pipeline is gathering pace. Its latest Fusion version is claimed to have a broad appeal across multiple verticals, which presumably it regards as a good thing.
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W. H. Smith “Strong Group Performance” as High Street Falls 4%
W.H. Smith SMWH claims a strong performance across the group for the 21 weeks to 21st January, presumably hoping that nobody will go as far as reading the actual figures which show that High Street revenue actually fell by 4% and only travel revenue with a 10% increase, saved the day enabling Smiths to show a like for like sales increase of 1% and a total increase of 2%. As a result of the success of the travel division, the group expects that profit growth for the group as a whole will be slightly ahead of plan.
Restaurant Group RTN admits to a catalogue of management failures which led to a fall of 5.9% in 4th quarter trading which continued to be challenging and compares badly with a decline of 3.9% over the 53 weeks to1st January. The decline is to be countered by improving its proposition and its operating processes, building a better business and delivering an attentive and engaging service, One can only hope that the people who failed to cope with the problems in 2016 will be able to deal with them in 2017, The first half of which is expected to be difficult and no improvement showing until towards the end of the year.
Koovs KOOV is enjoying another year of excellent growth with sales for the 9 months to 31st December showing a rise of 101% and traffic, registered users and social media all up by 100%. The success of its premium party dress collection which sold out in record time, 59% of it within three days of launch has left the company excited about prospects for 2017
McCarthy & Stone MCS saw legal completions for the 20 weeks to the 20th January fall by 2% compared to the previous year as a result of a lower forward order book and a slight slowing in sales momentum since results were announced on the 15th November. Year to date reservations are currently running ahead and are expected to bring in an extra 5% revenue, due to price increases. Profit before tax for 2017 will be more than usually weighted towards the second half.
Staffline Group STAF is increasing its final dividend by 29% after a year of strong organic growth which saw a rise in revenue of 26%. Underlying profit before tax rose by 30% and undiluted earnings per share by 23%. The company’s success means that it has increased its market share “more than ever”.
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McCarthy & Stone – Orders Down, Cancellations Up, Incentives Back.
McCarthy & Stone MCC is yet another housebuilder hoping that the warning signs of a pending slowdown in the housing market can be ignored and, like all the others it seems to be living in the hope that good times can and will go on for ever. For the year to the 31st August, its first as a public company, it enjoyed robust growth, with a revenue rise of 31%, legal completions up by 20% and £52m cash in the bank at the year end. It credits its success on its continued focus on operational excellence and concentrating its efforts on the demand for retirement homes. Its net average selling price rose by 8% because of what it claims was increased quality.
That is now history and the future presents a more gloomy prospect.
The order book is down some 12% on a year ago. Incentives are back and you have not heard much of those in the house building industry for many a year but in recent weeks their use has become necessary to ensure that the volume growth target can be met. Since the company’s last update as recently as the 29th June, weakness in the secondary housing market has become apparent. Perhaps worst of all, cancellations have risen and there is now a fear that continued market weakness could lead to a failure by the company to achieve its 15% planned growth target.
Eckoh plc ECK has been forced to issue a surprise profit warning as management appears to have bitten off more than it can chew, with the disastrous acquisition of Product Support Solutions which has a significant presence in the US and which has suffered from cost over runs on a large, complex, fixed price contract which is expected to lead to losses of £700,000 for that division alone. PSS is now to be closed down and as it was acquired less than a year ago in November 2015, questions must be raised about the effectiveness of Ecko’s management at the time and the due diligence it performed on PSS. Perhaps not surprisingly, today’s update remains silent on the point.
To add to the damage Eckoh has changed its pricing formula thereby leading to a fall in short and medium term margins. The result of all this, is that pre tax profits for the current year will be below market expectations and probably in line with last years results.
Ryanair RYA happily announces that its great success continues, with August traffic up by 11% or 16% on an annual rolling basis. Load factor again rose, by 1% and customers will be pleased to know that average fares over the next 6 months are expected to fall by some 10 – 12%
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