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Ian Pollard: ABF – A Headline A Day

Associated British Foods ABF Yesterdays headline trumpeted that Primark blamed three periods of unseasonable weather for sales sliding by 2.1% over the year to the 15th September. But today a new day has dawned and brought with it new headlines as the media stands on its head and proclaims that today’s truth is that Primark has in fact delivered a strong performance with sales rising by 1%. Like for like sales in the UK rose by 1.2% where its share of the clothing market grew significantly. Despite suffering in Europe where sales were weak and fell by 4.7%, total sales including those from fifteen new stores in nine countries, grew by 5%

Perhaps George Weston the CEO got it right when he calmly headlined that it had been another year of progress, with strong profits, not only from Primark but from each of its other world beating divisions, grocery, agriculture and ingredients, with only sugar letting the side down. Adjusted profit before tax rose by 5% and earnings per share by 6% whilst the final dividend is increased by a healthy 10% in line with the promises of a strong  profit performance  made in Septembers update.

Marks & Spencer Group MKS waved its magicians wand and produced a 7.1% increase in profit before tax after revenue which fell by 3.1% in the half year to the 29th September. The company is now going through the first phase of it transformation programme which includes the closure of over 100 stores and the introduction of a” new, very determined and energetic management team”  which indicates that the previous management team must have been regarded as somewhat lacking in these qualities. The store closures had their effect on revenue with Clothing & Home down 2.7%, Food down by 0.2% or 2.9% on a like-for-like basis, reflecting tough trading. Looking at the level of their food prices perhaps there is little wonder that trading was tough.
Persimmon PSN “All gone” is the word from Persimmon which admits that at the end of its third quarter on the 6th November it is fully sold up for the current year and forward sales beyond 2018 are 9% up on a year ago. Sales prices remain firm and consumer confidence is described as being resilient.
Dairy Crest Group DCG claims delivery of  a good performance in the half year to the 30th September, driven by its two largest brands, Cathedral City and Clover. Profit before tax fell by 88% and basic earnings per share by 89%. Revenue rose by 2% and the interim dividend is to be increased by the same amount

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Ian Pollard: Marks & Spencer Group #MKS Writes Its Own Obituary

 Marks & Spencer Group MKS – Results for the year to the end of March read like an obituary for what was once a great British retail institution. It matters not where you look, Clothing & Home, Food, International, Marks is in retreat on all fronts, exiting international markets, reducing selling space, and expecting further closures during the current financial year. Even the successes ring hollow, when you examine them. International profits more than doubled but only because they got rid of the loss making bits. They are even reduced to blaming unseasonable weather for impacting trading in the second half. And of course you can not forget that old chestnut, the challenging UK consumer market. Any management which has to blame the consumers, has got serious problems, when it should be blaming itself for failing to live up to the challenges.

Group revenue fell by 0.7% leading to a slump of 62.1% in profit before tax and 77.8% in basic earnings per share. Of course these can be adjusted to make them look better and Marks does not hesitate in so doing. Like for like sales fell in each quarter One can almost hear the sigh of relief as it announces that it will manage to maintain its dividend. Blame is laid on the costs incurred as Marks pursues its transformation plan, “restoring the basics”, which still has a long way to go. It even lists its problems so that shareholders can see what damage management has done and the problems which it has to overcome if it is to survive.

Marks admits it has lost appeal and has to recover it, it needs to refresh its food offer, stop losing market share in younger customers and larger households, its online offer is not competitive and its website is too slow. If a website is slow, that does not happen overnight, it is an indication of a sclerotic management living in the past. This seems to be the year when the past has well and truly caught up with Marks. Will predators soon be circling it ?

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