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Lithium production won’t be able to keep up with longer-term demand

Article from smallcaps.com

While gold has lured investors from battery metals in the short-term, lithium producers and explorers alike are pointing out current glut fearmongering in the lithium space does not account for longer-term demand, which will be driven by increasing adoption of electric vehicles and energy storage.

Lithium Australia (ASX: LIT) managing director Adrian Griffin told Small Capsthat conventional lithium production will not be able to keep up with demand by 2030.

He said the current fearmongering and analyst claims that lithium is heading towards a glut amid a rapid increase in hard rock production and a slower than expected uptake of electric vehicles does not take into account longer-term market fundamentals.

Mr Griffin added that the current oversupply situation is a temporary aberration.

Managing director and chief executive officer of Pilbara Minerals (ASX: PLS)Ken Brinsden agrees.

Speaking with Small Caps, Mr Brinsden said the lithium sector was undergoing a “rebalancing period” and the “market upset” today will be “short-lived”.

China is the only country that processes lithium into lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide chemicals required for the battery sector.

Mr Brinsden said the current rebalancing period was a necessary stage so that China could move ahead with refining its processing technologies and building more capacity.

While China is refining its technologies, Mr Brinsden said the rest of the world has continued to “go nuts” for lithium – particularly Korea and Japan which are looking to build downstream lithium processing plants.

New chemical manufacturing capacity will be coming online next year, and electric vehicle adoption continues to grow – creating more lithium demand.

Mr Brinsden pointed out that only five years ago the lithium sector was a boutique market with most of the material funnelled into ceramics, medicine and minor end-uses.

He added that Australia essentially only has four base-load mines and even with planned expansions these mines will struggle to meet even Western Australia’s mounting requirements.

Meanwhile, lithium brine explorer BMG Resources (ASX: BMG) managing director Bruce McCracken also shares the sentiment that long-term demand drivers for the material are “becoming increasingly evident”.

“Lithium is perfect for batteries – it is light and energetic,” he added.

Mr Griffin pointed out the current lithium glut concerns were a result of “misinformation, misinterpretation and misunderstanding”.

“If global demand for lithium-ion batteries grows beyond the pundits’ wildest expectations, which it seems it may, then conventional sources of lithium supply simply will not cope with demand.”

He said to fill this gap, unconventional lithium sources will be needed.

Electric vehicles drive demand

According to Mr Griffin, about 3.5 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent will be required annually by 2030 for use in electric vehicles alone, with about 50 million EVs anticipated to be on the world’s roads.

He pointed out this demand is underpinned by legislative requirements in the EV space, which require all or most vehicles on the road to be electric by 2030 in numerous countries throughout Europe and China.

Mr McCracken added that McKinsey’s latest research reveals that EV demand will “significantly ramp up” between now and 2025.

“This is a trend we see fuelled by a continuous decline in battery costs and higher energy density,” he said.

Energy storage and electronics pressure industry further

In addition to EV driven demand, the industry will be pressured for more lithium as energy storage and electronic products sectors also continue to grow.

When looking at meeting these global lithium requirements, Mr Griffin said current mining and planned projects and expansions will not meet consumption needs longer term.

He pointed out that 200,000tpa of lithium is currently produced and output from these mines will dwindle as they mature.

“New mines targeting lower grades can fill demand gaps, but alternative sources of lithium may prove more attractive as genuine supply shortages put pressure on conventional production.”

Lithium Australia plans to help fill this gap with its battery recycling and proprietary processing technologies that allow the company to develop lithium chemicals from materials generally deemed as waste including spent batteries, lithium mine tailings and other lithium minerals including lepidolite and petalite.

Meanwhile, lithium brine explorer BMG is about to commence drilling at its joint venture in in Northern Chile, with Mr McCracken pointing out and brine operations offer “several advantages” over hard rock including reduced development times and costs.

Cadence Minerals Plc (KDNC) Acquisition of Lithium Assets in Australia

Cadence Minerals (AIM/NEX: KDNC; OTC: KDNCY; “Cadence”) is pleased to announce that it has agreed to acquire three highly prospective assets in Australia that are in regions with proven high-grade lithium mineralisation. The mechanism to facilitate this acquisition is via varying binding investment agreements in place with Lithium Technologies Pty Ltd (“LT”) and Lithium Supplies Pty Ltd (“LS”) that Cadence entered on 11 December 2017 to acquire up to 100% of six prospective hard rock lithium assets in Argentina.

HIGHLIGHTS

  • Varying the agreements with LT & LS delivers Cadence with the opportunity to immediately start developing three highly prospective lithium projects in Australia, while still retaining Cadence’s exposure to the six assets in Argentina.
  • The acquisition covers three projects – Picasso (Western Australia – WA), Litchfield (Northern Territories – NT) and Alcoota (NT) – that are located  in regions with proven lithium mineralisation and supportive mining infrastructure
  • The Picasso project (license granted) is near Alliance Mineral Assets’ (ASX: A40; SGX: 40F; “AMA”) high-profile Bald Hill Mine in WA (note: AMA recently completed a 50:50 A$400m+ merger with delisted Tawawa Resources [ASX: TAW] & raised $40M to develop the  asset base)
  • Demonstrating exploration upside for Picasso, the Bald Hill Mine is producing a spodumene concentrate and has a JORC (2012) compliant mineral resource of 26.5Mt @ 0.96% Li2O; probable ore reserves at 11.3Mt @ 1.01% Li2O
  • The Litchfield project (license granted), located near Darwin (NT), is contiguous to Core Lithium’s (ASX: CXO) ground and has a JORC compliant mineral resource of 8.55Mt @ 1.33% Li2O for its Finnis project (for all six deposits)
  • Finally, the Alcoota project (license to be-granted) is circa 145km NE of Alice Springs (NT) and has seen comparatively limited exploration, though significant geochemistry samples from 10km south of the project returned assays of 10.2% & 9.6% Li2O , with evidence suggesting there is a pegmatite zone within tenure prospective for lithium mineralisation

Kiran Morzaria, Chief Executive Officer, added:

“The Board is delighted with this variation agreement since it will enable the exploration team in Australia to commence work immediately on developing prime lithium assets, starting with the Picasso project in Western Australia. Alliance Mineral Assets’ recently raised AU$ 40 million to develop its lithium assets in the region, including its high-profile Bald Hill Mine, which located as it is nearby to Picasso, underlines the opportunity and potential upside for Cadence 

More importantly, this transaction is strategically beneficial as the Australian projects were acquired without any material variation to the monetary value of the acquisition agreed over the six Argentina assets. At a stroke, this delivers Cadence three additional opportunities to create incremental value for shareholders while continuing to progress the highly prospective Argentina assets.”

OVERVIEW OF NEW AUSTRALIAN LITHIUM ASSETS

A more detailed summary of the key salient points for each of the lithium assets follows:

Picasso project, WA

The Picasso project is located 50km from the city of Norseman, which connects via rail to the southern Port of Esperance. Moreover, it is circa 40km south of the newly formed Alliance Mineral Assets’ (AMA) high-profile Bald Hill Mine. This region is well known for high-grade lithium mineralisation, with the formation of AMA (via a AU$400 million merger with now delisted Tawana Resources and AU$40 million in fresh exploration funding) providing demonstratable evidence.

Picasso’s proximity to the Bald Hill Mine (which commenced producing lithium spodumene concentrate in March 2018) is a significant positive feature since it is a high-grade economically viable deposit:

Ø The JORC (2012) compliant total mineral resource is 26.5Mt @ 0.96% Li2O (255.2k contained tonnes) & 149ppm Ta2O5 (8,600lbs contained); and;

Ø Probable ore reserves of 11.3Mt @ 1.01% Li2O (114.1kt contained) & 160ppm Ta2O5 (4,000lbs contained)

Further, demonstrating the region’s potential, Liontown Resources’ (ASX: LTR) latest drilling program (15km south of Picasso) has intersected excellent lithium mineralisation at its two projects: Buldania (41m @ 1.0% Li2O and 35m @ 1.2% Li2O) and Killaloe (58m @ 1.2% Li2O).

The Picasso project’s geology is very similar to occurrences in AMA’s and Liontown Resources’ ground, both of which both have proven lithium mineralisation. Specifically, the Geological Survey of Western Australia (GSWA) has mapped granitic pegmatites (which typically host lithium-bearing minerals such as spodumene) within the tenure.

Encouragingly, based on analysing GSWA maps, there are more outcropping granite units and mapped pegmatites in the Picasso project than AMA’s ground. Furthermore, significant weathering has potentially restricted identifying many more pegmatites at the surface, which demonstrates further exploration upside.

Litchfield project, NT

The Litchfield project is close to Darwin Port and supportive mining infrastructure but in a region considered mineral rich, yet materially under-explored. Litchfield is located in the Bynoe pegmatite field, which is known to host lithium mineralisation.

A huge positive for the Litchfield project is its proximity to its, Core Lithium, which has five demonstratable spodumene lithium deposits within 1-2km of the north-west boundary. These deposits, collectively called the Finniss project, have a JORC (2012) compliant total mineral resource of 7.25Mt @ 1.41% Li2O (excludes Sandras deposit further south).

Of these, the BP33 deposit, which is over 140m deep and 20-40m wide, has produced some spectacular intersections across several drill-holes:

  • 75m @ 1.68 % Li2O including 55m @ 1.97% Li2O
  • 36m @ 1.61% Li2O including 14m @ 2.05% Li2O
  • 49m @ 1.02% Li2O

Interestingly, a closer examination of satellite imagery along the western boundary confirms the geology is comparable, highlighting the prospect of contiguous mineralisation. Notably, this shows within the Litchfield project that there is high potential for lithium pegmatite bodies to be apparent.

While negligible exploration for lithium has been undertaken in the Litchfield project (explaining a dearth of drilling & geochemical results), the exploration upside is significant given Core Lithium has produced some of the best intercepts in Australia.

Alcoota project, NT

The Alcoota project is circa 145km NE of Alice Springs but has seen limited lithium exploration. However, recent rock chip samples indicate there is strong potential to uncover high-grade spodumene mineralisation. Notably, Northern Cobalt (ASX: N27), which has several projects in the region targeting lithium mineralisation, identified a new zone of pegmatites 12km long by up to 2km wide that extends into the Alcoota project from the SE boundary. Furthermore, directly 10km south in the adjacent tenure, assay results for rock chip samples returned respective grades up to 10.2% & 9.6% Li2O.

Overall, with granites and related pegmatite-intruded schist units extending into the Alcoota project (from the south), it explains why analogous lithium mineralisation is highly likely apparent.

Priority exploration targets

The geology team have already identified priority and secondary targets for exploration within each of the projects. Further, as the Picasso and Litchfield projects are already granted, the immediate focus will be to expedite updating desktop reviews and commence field trips for surface sampling and assay, followed by a ranking of priority drilling targets.

Details of the Transactions

Cadence has agreed a variation to the agreements with LT and LS. As previously announced (click here), Cadence can acquire 100% of Lithium Technologies Pty Ltd and Lithium Supplies Pty.

The variation will result in LT & LS acquiring between them 100% of Synergy Prospecting Ltd (“Synergy”), which owns the three lithium projects in Australia. As two of Synergy’s assets are granted, Cadence has agreed to move forward with increasing is ownership in LT & LS form 4% to 31.5% via:

  • Issuing 373,544,298 million Cadence shares to the founding shareholders of LT & LS valued at £400,000 (based on 14-day VWAP of £0.0107) to acquire a further 20% stake, which is in line with the terms of the original agreements; and
  •  £300,000 to earn an incremental 7.5% stake, with the funds earmarked to commence developing Synergy’s lithium assets in Australia.

The result of the variation would mean no change to the £ consideration to be paid for of LS and LT, however additional shares would be issued as a result of the change in the share price in Cadence between November 2017 and March 2019.

The principle terms for the acquisition for up to 100% of LT and LS is now as follows.

Stage

Ownership %

Total Ownership %

Total Consideration or the Acquisition of Lithium Technologies Pty Ltd & Lithium Supplies Pty Ltd

Purpose

Status

Cash Earn In £

Share Consideration Value £

Shares

Stage 1

4%

4%

100,000

Earn-in early non-invasive exploration (pre -exploration permits being granted)

Completed

Stage 2

20%

24%

400,000

373,544,298

On grant of exploration permits – acquisition of Lithium Technologies and Lithium Supplies shares

To be completed on Cadence payment of shares

Stage 3

7.50%

31.5%

300,000

Earn – in on commencement of exploration works after grant exploration permits

To be completed on Cadence earn-in expenditure

Stage 4

17.50%

49%

700,000

Earn – In on identification of suitable drill targets

Stage 5

51%

100%

1,750,000

1,634,256,305

1-year option to acquire all the outstanding share capital of Lithium Technologies and Lithium Supplies

Total

1,100,000

2,150,000

2,007,800,603

The exploration team in Argentina continues to progress developing the assets and working with the regulator towards securing approval to scale up the exploration program, then formulate the inaugural drilling campaign.

 

– Ends –

For further information:

Cadence Minerals plc

+44 (0) 207 440 0647

Andrew Suckling

Kiran Morzaria

WH Ireland Limited (NOMAD & Broker)

+44 (0) 207 220 1666

James Joyce

James Sinclair-Ford

Hannam & Partners LLP (Joint Broker)

+44 (0) 207 907 8500

Neil Passmore

Giles Fitzpatrick

Novum Securities Limited (Joint Broker)

+44 (0) 207 399 9400

Jon Belliss

 

Qualified Person

Kiran Morzaria B.Eng. (ACSM), MBA, has reviewed and approved the information contained in this announcement. Kiran holds a Bachelor of Engineering (Industrial Geology) from the Camborne School of Mines and an MBA (Finance) from CASS Business School.

 

Forward-Looking Statements:

Certain statements in this announcement are or may be deemed to be forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ”believe” ”could” “should” ”envisage” ”estimate” ”intend” ”may” ”plan” ”will” or the negative of those variations or comparable expressions including references to assumptions. These forward-looking statements are not based on historical facts but rather on the Directors’ current expectations and assumptions regarding the Company’s future growth results of operations performance future capital and other expenditures (including the amount. nature and sources of funding thereof) competitive advantages business prospects and opportunities. Such forward-looking statements reflect the Directors’ current beliefs and assumptions and are based on information currently available to the Directors.  Many factors could cause actual results to differ materially from the results discussed in the forward-looking statements including risks associated with vulnerability to general economic and business conditions competition environmental and other regulatory changes actions by governmental authorities the availability of capital markets reliance on key personnel uninsured and underinsured losses and other factors many of which are beyond the control of the Company. Although any forward-looking statements contained in this announcement are based upon what the Directors believe to be reasonable assumptions. The Company cannot assure investors that actual results will be consistent with such forward-looking statements.

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