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Sovereign Metals #SVML – SCP Equity Research note

Link to full SCP Equity Research note here:

Today’s Kasiya graphite testwork demonstrates that Sovereign Metal’s (AIM: SVML, ASX: SVM) Kasiya’s coarse graphite product has the requisite characteristics for use in refractory applications. This includes low weight loss at temperature, low oxidation and high threshold temperature for oxidation, and low impurities. The PFS assumed one graphite product but today’s results indicate that course and fine flake products could be options, noting higher pricing for courser flake applications. Although Kasiya’s economics are driven by rutile, it will also be the largest graphite producer outside China per the PFS which gives the project strategic value in both titanium and graphite, and it’s graphite size distribution is attractively distributed across size fractions.

Today we maintain our BUY rating and our A$1.65/sh price target based on 0.6x NAV-10% and a LT US$1,400/t rutile and US$1,200/t graphite concentrate price

Sovereign Metals #SVML – Positive Initial Test Results For Use of Kasiya Graphite In Refractories

Sovereign Metals Limited (ASX:SVM; AIM:SVML; OTCQX: SVMLF) (Sovereign or the Company) is pleased to announce that traditional market downstream testwork conducted at leading independent consultancy ProGraphite GmbH (ProGraphite) in Germany has delivered very positive initial test results. Preliminary tests confirm that graphite concentrate produced from the Company’s Kasiya Rutile-Graphite Project (Kasiya or the Project) in Malawi exhibits prerequisite characteristics required for graphite sales into the refractory materials sector.

Highlights:

·   

Testwork to confirm the suitability of Kasiya graphite for traditional applications is underway with an initial focus on the refractory materials sector

·   

Refractory materials production accounts for 24% of global graphite demand and requires large flake graphite with high oxidation resistance

·   

Initial independent tests confirm that Kasiya’s course flake (>180-micron) graphite concentrate exhibits high oxidation resistance

o

No oxidation below 400°C

o

Only 6.4% mass loss after 4 hours at 650°C

o

Very low oxidation rate of 1.6% per hour at 650°C

·   

These initial results coincide with news that China plans further export restrictions of items used in civilian and military applications, including graphite and titanium alloys

·   

Results will form the basis for ongoing and future discussions with potential traditional graphite off-takers; previous testwork has confirmed that Kasiya graphite can produce outstanding anode materials suitable for battery production

Managing Director and CEO, Frank Eagar commented: These initial test results for traditional graphite applications are very promising. High resistance to oxidation and low levels of sulphur are two key attributes required to produce a premium graphite product for traditional refractory and foundry applications. Combining these attributes with the > 50% large flakes of the Kasiya resource provides Sovereign with multiple marketing options.

Our evaluation of coarse Kasiya concentrate for traditional applications will continue in the coming months, complementing the optimisation work on the fine (<180 micron) fraction for anode materials1, where we have also had excellent initial results. We are very pleased that our testwork program continues highlighting Kasiya’s graphite’s premium quality.

Keeping in mind that graphite is a co-product for Kasiya, when combining these excellent results with one of the largest graphite resources globally, industry-low operating costs and lowest industry comparable greenhouse gas emissions, Kasiya presents significant advantages over its graphite peers as a long-term secure source of supply.”

Initial Test Results for Kasiya Graphite use in Refractory Materials

Flake graphite for refractory applications should have high oxidation resistance, low levels of impurities and low loss on ignition at moderate temperatures. Sample characterisation (see Table 1) showed high fixed carbon and low volatiles, confirming prior results regarding the purity of Kasiya flake graphite.

Table 1: Coarse (>180-micron) Flake Characterisation

Loss on Ignition (LOI %)

Moisture (%)

Volatiles (%)

Fixed Carbon (%)

97.5

0.11

0.29

97.1

Source: ProGraphite

The oxidation behaviour of Kasiya coarse flake (>180 microns) was assessed by a standard method known as Thermogravimetric Analysis (TGA). TGA measures the weight loss of a sample at a controlled rate of increasing temperatures, with each increase in temperature held for specified time intervals (to measure weight loss at constant temperature).

TGA performed by an independent laboratory on a sample of >180-micron (µm) concentrate demonstrated no mass loss below 400°C, including the one-hour hold at 400°C (see Figure 1). Minimal weight loss occurred in the ramp-up to 650°C, with only a 6.37% mass loss for the four-hour hold at 650°C, which equates to a very-low Oxidation Rate (OR) of 1.6% per hour.

A graph with lines and numbers Description automatically generated with medium confidence

Figure 1: TGA Analysis of >180 micron Kasiya Concentrate (furnace temperature profile: purple;
absolute weight loss: red; weight loss per minute: blue)

(Source: ProGraphite) 

Oxidation resistance of graphite is a critical attribute for its use in refractory applications, where the refractory bricks are exposed to high furnace temperatures. Kasiya coarse flake also has very low levels of sulphur impurities (<0.02%), which is also advantageous for refractory applications.

Additional evaluation of Kasiya coarse flake for traditional and expandable applications is underway with results expected in the coming months.

This will complement the optimisation program for anode materials, generating the information required for offtake agreements for Kasiya graphite concentrate.

Graphite and Titanium Alloy Export Restrictions

On 16 November 2024, Japan-based Nikkei Asia correspondents reported that China plans to tighten export controls on key “dual-use” technologies and items, including graphite and titanium alloys, in December 2024. China’s Commerce Ministry had detailed specifications of technologies and items used in both civilian and military applications that would fall under the export controls with graphite on the list. Nikkei Asia was the first news company to announce China’s antimony export restrictions in August 2024.

On 20 October 2023, Reuters reported, effective 1 December 2023, that China would require export permits for some graphite products, including natural graphite and natural graphite products critical to EV production. China is the world’s top graphite producer and exporter. According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, currently 75% of the world’s flake graphite and 96% of spherical graphite (used in battery anodes) come from China.

The reported restrictions further highlight the globally and geopolitically strategic nature of the Company’s Kasiya Project, which aims to become the world’s largest producer of high-grade titanium feedstock in the form of rutile and natural flake graphite.

Industrial uses of Graphite

Traditional demand for natural graphite is primarily tied to the steel industry where it is used as a component in bricks that line both blast and electric arc furnaces (“refractories”) and as a liner for ladles and crucibles. In the automotive industry, it is used in brake linings, gaskets and clutch materials. Graphite also has many other industrial uses in lubricants, carbon brushes for electric motors, fire retardants, and insulation and reinforcement products.

A pie chart with different colors Description automatically generated

Figure 2: Uses of Graphite (Source: European Advanced Carbon and Graphite Association) 

Kasiya Graphite Flake Size Distribution Provides Optionality

The size of the flakes typically determines a graphite product’s use. Typically, large flake graphite is used in refractory applications, while smaller flake sizes are used in battery applications. Very small graphite flakes tend to have limited usefulness, mainly for lubricants.

The flake size distribution of Kasiya’s current graphite Mineral Reserve indicates that Kasiya’s graphite could be used for several applications. This provides the Company with optionality over offtake discussions and future supply chains to maximise revenues generated by Kasiya’s graphite co-product.

Table 2: Flake Size Distribution

Flake Graphite Type

Typical Use / Target Industry

Flake Size
(µm)

2024 Price
(US$/t)

Sovereign Metals

Syrah Resources*

 

Kasiya

(PFS Stage)

Balama*

(In Production)

Super-Jumbo

Aerospace, nuclear and other

>500

1,841

29.8%

8.5%

Jumbo

Crucibles and foundry

300-500

1,491

Large

Refractories and foundries

180-300

1,191

27.1%

12.0%

Medium

Batteries and refractories

105-180

1,115

23.9%

34.0%

Small

Batteries and niche products

75-105

659

19.4%

45.5%

Very Small

Lubricants

<75

609

*Source: Fastmarkets; Syrah Resources Limited company disclosures: see ASX Announcement “Syrah Finalises Balama Graphite Feasibility Study and Declares Maiden Ore Reserve” here: https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20150529/pdf/42yw7f27bc6j4d.pdf

Syrah Resources is the world’s largest listed graphite producer outside China.

Graphite in Refractory Materials

Graphite additives are used to produce refractory materials for high-temperature environments, such as the linings for furnaces, kilns, incinerators and nuclear reactors. Graphite’s key properties for use in refractory applications are its resistance to oxidation, chemical inertness, and good thermal conductivity.

Specifically, graphite is used to increase the effectiveness of the final refractory product by:

 

•         

increasing thermal conductivity for efficient heat transfer,

•         

decreasing thermal gradient between the hot and cold faces of the product, thereby reducing expansion,

•         

increasing the resistance to thermal shock which would otherwise lead to cracking or breakage of the refractory,

•         

low thermal expansion, reducing the ricks of structural damage,

•         

repelling molten slag,

•         

reducing wettability to molten metals so they do not affect the end product, and

•         

increasing the working life of the product.

 

1 Refer to Sovereign’s ASX Announcement “Downstream Testwork Demonstrates High Quality Graphite” dated 15 May 2024

Enquires

 

 

 

Frank Eagar, Managing Director & CEO

South Africa / Malawi

+27 21 065 1890

Sapan Ghai, CCO

London

+44 207 478 3900

 

Nominated Adviser on AIM and Joint Broker

 

SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP

+44 20 3470 0470

Ewan Leggat

Charlie Bouverat

 

 

Joint Brokers

 

Stifel

+44 20 7710 7600

Varun Talwar

 

Ashton Clanfield

 

 

 

Berenberg

+44 20 3207 7800

Matthew Armitt

 

Jennifer Lee

 

 

 

Buchanan

+ 44 20 7466 5000

 

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