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Quoted Micro 21 October 2024
AQUIS STOCK EXCHANGE
ProBiotix Health (PBX) has sent out a circular for the requisitioned general meeting on 1 November. The meeting has been requisitioned by Seneca Partners and related investors that hold 5.46% in total. Seneca Partners is also an investor in AIM-quoted OptiBiotix Health (LON: OPTI), which is also unhappy with the current management, but a relationship agreement means that it could not requisition a general meeting. OptiBiotix Health and related individuals own 37.95% and will vote in favour of the resolutions. ProBiotix Health wants to block these shares from being voted. The first resolution is to remove the chief executive Steen Andersen and the second is to remove non-exec Frederik Bruhn-Petersen, whose firm recently subscribed for shares, a funding that OptiBiotix Health was unhappy about. Seneca Partners and OptiBiotix Health are also unhappy that the chief executive wanted to leave the Aquis Stock Exchange.
Marula Mining (MARU) is finalising negotiations to establish a new joint venture with a Chinese battery manufacturer and lithium offtake partner at the Blesburg lithium and tantalum mine. This would be for a lithium acid leaching processing plant, which could be commissioned by next summer. This will use spodumene from the mine and could produce 2,000 tonnes of high-grade lithium product each year. A subscription of £750,000, which comes through the issue of 15 million shares at 5p each via the AUO Commercial Brokerage LLC subscription agreement, will be used to fund the installation of an ore sorter at Blesburg and the costs of other projects. Gathoni Muchai Investments, where Marula Mining board member Jason Brewer is a director, bought 430,000 shares at 5.96p each.
At the end of the three months to September 2024, Arbuthnot Banking (ARBB) customer deposit balances were £3.8bn and customer loans £2.5bn. Funds under management and administration have grown 18% to more than £2bn in the nine months to September 2024. Arbuthnot Banking has completed its move to new offices in the City of London. Management is assessing the proposed new capital rules and deciding if strategy changes will be required. The Budget could also affect strategy.
Substrate Artificial Intelligence (SAI) intends to leave the Aquis Stock Exchange, although it will remain on the BME growth market in Spain. The cancellation of trading on Aquis will happen on 15 November.
Invinity Energy Systems (IES) is extending the expiry date of the 8.67 million options, exercisable at 175p/share, held by Gamesa Electric to 10 May 2025. Employee share options will be extended until 21 November 2029.
Mendell Helium (MDH) has agreed to sell its plant-based health and wellness business to Orsus Therapeutics, which will leave the seller with a 28% stake plus six million warrants in the buyer. This is conditional on shareholder approval. The Orsus Therapeutics shares may be distributed to Mendell Helium shareholders. Mendell Helium has an option to acquire Kansas-focused M3 Helium.
Inqo Investments (INQO) has made an investment in Empower Clean Cooking. Uganda-based Empower produces biomass pellets for cooking fuel.
Vehicle electrification technology developer Equipmake (EQIP) is supplying its zero emission drivetrain for use in Textron Safeaero 220 airside de-icing vehicles. There were successful trials earlier in the year.
Former Made Tech (MTEC) finance director Deborah Lovegrove has taken on the same role at All Things Considered (ATC).
AIM
Pulsar Helium Inc (PLSR) shares were already trading on TSX-V and the OTCQB Venture Market and the additional cash raised by coming to AIM on 18 October and raising £3.875m at 25p/share. This will fund further exploration in of the Topaz helium project in northern Minnesota, close to the Canadian border. So far, an appraisal well has been drilled and this confirmed the presence of helium. This will be drilled deeper. There were 1.47 million shares traded on the first day. Having opened on 29p the shares closed the day at 27.5p.
Mothercare (MTC) shares returned from suspension following the 2023-24 results publication and refinancing. There is a new £8m two-year loan facility from Gordon Brothers, which receives 43.4 million warrants exercisable at 8.5p/share. There is also a joint venture with Reliance Brands, which will acquire 51% for £16m, covering the Indian sub-continent. In the year to March 2024, underlying pre-tax profit dipped from £3.4m to £3.1m. Overall revenues continue to decline, and Cavendish expects a small loss this year.
Joshua Alliance is offering 40p/share in cash for each share in N Brown Group (BWNG). The share price has not been this high since February 2023. The Alliance family and related parties already own 53.4% of N Brown. The bid values the fashion brands company at £191m. The chief executive and finance director of N Brown will elect for a share alternative.
Motor dealer Vertu Motors (VTU) had a strong September sales period, and it continues to outperform the sector, particularly in electric vehicle sales. Strong aftersales business and a stabilised second hand car market means that the outlook is positive. In the six months to August 2024, revenues were 3% ahead at £2.49bn. Full year revenues are expected to be flat and pre-tax profit slightly higher at £38m. NAV of 112.8p/share is forecast. A further £3m share buy back is planned.
Weak interior design markets, particularly in the UK, hit interim the figures of Sanderson Design Group (SDG). The timing of licensing revenues exacerbated the downturn in underlying pre-tax profit from £6.8m to £2.2m. The dividend has been reduced by one-third to 0.5p/share. Net cash fell to £9.6m at the end of July 2024.Trading continues to weaken with a 10% downturn in revenues so far in this financial year. The aftermath of the UK Budget and the US election could determine the full year outcome. Investec has reduced its pre-tax profit forecast by 8% to £7.5m, down from £12.2m last year.
Digital mental health services provider Kooth (KOO) says the State of Pennsylvania has terminated its contract with the AIM company. The contract started on 11 October 2022 and the end date was extended from June 2024 to June 2025. However, there is a right to terminate with a 30-day notice period. Kooth says that it was negotiating a new contract, and it is unsure what the status of ongoing work will be. When it was announced, the contract was said to be worth $3m in its pilot year.
Approval for further development of the Wressle field in Lincolnshire has been revoked, because of a legal challenge that greenhouse gas emissions were not taken into account in the original decision. Union Jack Oil (UJO) has a 40% interest in the Wressle development and Europa Oil & Gas (EOG) owns 30%. A revised application for Wressle can be made with additional data on emissions. The existing production continues.
Executive search company Norman Broadbent (NBB) says third quarter revenues are 16% lower than last year at £2.7m. Even so, it was the strongest quarter of the year. September was particularly strong.
CloudCoCo (CLCO) is selling its managed IT services business for £9.2m. This will discharge liabilities, including the MXC loan notes, and leave cash of £950,000. If the sale does not go ahead management will need to consider if there is a future for the group. There are also discussions concerning the sale of the Connect business. The focus will be on the product reseller business.
Decision making software provider ActiveOps (AOM) grew first half revenues by 9% to £14.3m. Annualised recurring revenues are £26.2m. Net revenue retention is 1085. There is cash of £13.4m. Demand is being driven by organisations needing to reduce the cost base. Investment in sales will pay off next year.
Iodine supplier Iofina (IOF) is on course to meet iodine production guidance for this year. There was 163.9 metric tonnes produced in the third quarter. Iodine prices have been higher than in the first half when they were $66.84/kg.
Armadale Capital (ACP) proposes a cancellation of the AIM quotation because it believes that being public does not benefit the company because of the costs. Armadale Capital needs to reduce the cash burn and sell non-core assets. The resources company can be more flexible as a private company. A general meeting will be held on 1 November.
Emmerson (EML) says that the regional authority in Morocco have made an unfavourable environmental recommendation relating to the Khemisset potash project. The full decision is not yet available. Emmerson had previously appealed against the regional authority’s decision not to approve the project under environmental grounds.
MAIN MARKET
Online travel hostel agency Hostelworld (HSW) has moved into a net cash position and trading is in line with expectations even though there has been a small fall in revenues in the nine months to September 2024 due to lower average booking values. Direct marketing costs are down from 51% of revenues to 46%, while operating costs are also lower. Four-fifths of bookings are from social media. Capital allocation policy is being assessed.
Kitchenware retailer ProCook Group (PROC) says second quarter trading shows it is outperforming the market. Interim revenues are 8% ahead at £28.3m with like-for-like revenues 4% higher. The fastest growth is in ecommerce, helped by the relaunch on Amazon, but retail is also recovering. Higher inventory levels meant that net debt has moved up to £4.2m.
Property investor Town Centre Securities (TOWN) is no longer a REIT. That means that there is more flexibility for the business. EPRA net tangible assets slipped 2.5% to 277p/share at the end of June 2024. The loan to value ratio is 50.8%. The final dividend is 2.5p/share.
The space sector is attracting more investment and Seraphim Space Investment Trust (SSIT) will benefit. In the year to June 2024, the NAV improved from 92.9p/share to 96.2p/share, helped by share buy backs. Many of the investment portfolio are reaching maturity and Astroscale has floated on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
Shell company Dukemount Capital (DKE) has raised £98,500 from a share issue at 0.025p/share and £51,500 from convertible loan notes with the same conversion price. Loans were previously converted into shares and £300,000 was raised earlier in the year at 0.04p/share. Th outstanding warrants are being repriced to 0.0375p. Richard Edwards has joined the board, and he owns one-quarter of the company.
Andrew Hore
Quoted Micro 23 October 2023
AQUIS STOCK EXCHANGE
Healthy snack foods supplier S-Ventures (SVEN) plans to raise at least £2.5m to pay deferred consideration and provide working capital. The fundraising has been announced ahead of time so that more investors can become involved. In the year to September 2023, gross revenues improved from £8.6m to £16.9m, while net debt is £6.8m. The main growth came from an initial contribution by gluten-free products company Juvela and technology platform Market Rocket. S-Ventures was loss making and the level is likely to depend on impairment charges.
Arbuthnot Banking Group (ARBB) continues to benefit from higher interest rates. Customer deposits grew 7% to £3.5bn, while wealth management assets under management increased from £1.38bn to £1.43bn. The new London office at 20 Finsbury Circus has increased space by 45% to 75,000 square feet. This will increase annual costs by £5m and there will be dual costs until October 2024 when the existing office lease expires.
Technology marketing business Inteliqo Ltd (IQO) generated initial revenues of $558,000 in the year to September 2023 and it moved from a loss of $428,000 to a pre-tax profit of $185,000. There is $384,000 in the bank, after a cash inflow of $195,000. Inteliqo should continue to be profitable this year as it builds up sales of smart translation Ipedia earbuds and the Langaroo language app.
Aquis Exchange (AQX) chief executive Alasdair Haynes bought 10,000 shares at 325p each, while non-exec chairman Glenn Collinson acquired 7,500 shares at 326.5p.
Shepherd Neame (SHEP) director George Barnes bought 1,000 shares at 800p each. Premier Miton has taken a 5.05% stake in Global Connectivity (GCON). Oberon Investments (OBE) chief executive Simon McGivern has sold 11.6 million shares and Joanna McGivern sold 650,000 shares at 3.6p each. Chairman Mike Cuthbert bought 140,000 shares at 3.6p each and finance director Galin Ganchev acquired an initial 138,888 shares at 3.6p/share. Simon McGivern still has a 6.78% stake. Shepherd Neame (SHEP) director George Barnes bought 1,000 shares at 800p each. Premier Miton has taken a 5.05% stake in Global Connectivity (GCON). Andrew Offit has increased his stake in AQRU (AQRU) from 4.77% to 11.9%.
Tap Global Group (TAP) has appointed Tennyson Securities as its broker.
AIM
Shoe Zone (SHOE) has sparked another upgrade with its latest trading statement. The shoe retailer’s sales were slightly ahead of expectations and pre-tax profit will be at least £16m, which is 19% higher than forecast. Lower freight rates improved margins. The dividend estimate has been raised from 9p/share to 10.5p/share on the back of the profit growth. Zeus has increased its 2023-24 pre-tax profit forecast from £12.5m to £15.2m. To put this in perspective, one year ago Zeus forecast a 2022-23 pre-tax profit of £8.5m, not much more than 50% of the outcome. It would be wrong to expect similar upgrades this year, but it indicates that forecasts are generally conservative.
Gama Aviation (GMAA) is selling its Jet East business for $131m. Adjusting for debt and transaction costs the net amount is $100m, which is equivalent to 125p/share. That could allow a 55p/share dividend. The rest of the cash can be reinvested in the remaining aviation services businesses. Gama Aviation recently won air ambulance and offshore helicopter contracts.
CoStar Group Inc is bidding 110p/share for On The Market (OTMP), which values the property listings company at £99m. The February 2018 placing price was 165p. CoStar Group Inc says that On The Market provides a good entry point to the UK residential property market. The purchaser owns US-based Homes.com.
Litigation finance provider Manolete Partners (MANO) is benefiting from the UK government removing Covid-era protections against insolvency. In the six months to September 2023, the number of case investments jumped from 83 to 146. Bounce back loan cases separately increased from 83 to 179.
Craven House Capital (CRV) investee companies Garimon and Honeydog – it has 29.9% of each company – are planning to reverse into the Amigo Holdings shell on the Main Market. These are music streaming and digital publishing businesses.
eDrive systems developer Saietta (SED) shares returned from suspension on Thursday afternoon after it published results to the year to March 2023. There were problems with the accounting for the new agreements with Consolidated Metco Inc, which included an upfront payment of €3.3m and an inventory write-down of £2.1m. Revenues from continuing operations more than doubled to £4.8m, but the group loss was higher. Orders are in place to build up revenues. There was cash of £7.2m left at the end of March 2023, but by September this was down to £400,000. More cash will be required to finance the delivery of orders.
Fashion retailer Sosandar (SOS) has decided to reduce promotional and discounting activity on its website and open retail stores. There will be four shops by next spring. This will hold back short-term revenues but could accelerate progress in 2026-27. Singer has cut its full year revenues forecast by 19% to £46.8m. This means that having made a profit last year, this year Sosandar will be back to breakeven, and it will take two years to beat the £1.6m profit made last year.
Revolution Bars Group (RBG) reported full year figures broadly in line with expectations. The Peach Pubs business is trading well with like-for-like sales 14% ahead, but the Revolution bars have been hit be train strikes. Cavendish retained its flat 2023-24 pre-tax loss forecast of £2m, even though trading has been tough.
WH Ireland has produced its updated research for metallurgical coal producer Bens Creek Group (BEN) suggesting a move into profit this year. This year’s pre-tax profit forecast is slashed from £108m to £7.2m, with the following year’s estimate reduced from £96.2m to £33.4m. This is a scenario rather than a proper forecast. A 3.6 cents/share (3p) dividend is possible in 2024-25.
Cirata (CRTA), formerly known as WANdisco, is trading in line with expectations with bookings of $1.7m in the latest quarter. They are expected to be higher in the fourth quarter and the software company’s management is confident that the prospects are genuine. Cash should be at least $16m at the year end and Cirata could be cash breakeven in 2024.
R&Q Insurance Holdings (RQIH) is selling its program management business, and this should generate $300m of net proceeds. This will be used to pay down debt. The group chief executive and finance director will leave with the disposal.
ECR Minerals (ECR) has terminated its option to acquire the Hurricane project, following the changes in the board. Management does not believe the potential of the project warrants the acquisition cost.
Karelian Diamond Resources (KDR) is raising £250,000 at 2.5p/share and the cash will be used for exploration for nickel, copper, platinum group metals in Northern Ireland and diamonds in Finland. Peterhouse has been appointed as broker.
MAIN MARKET
Cadmium-free quantum dots developer Nanoco (NANO) has concluded its litigation with Samsung, and it has funds to move towards commercial production. The net litigation proceeds are $90m. The second tranche will be received next February. There are plans to return £33m-£40m (10p-12p/share) to shareholders after this. Contract terms are under discussion for the first commercial order, and they should conclude by the end of 2023. In the year to July 2023, revenues jumped from £2.5m to £5.6m with the main growth coming from recognising licence fees related to the Samsung litigation.
Apax Partners is bidding 110p/share for Kin & Carta (KCT), which is a 41% increase on the pre-bid share price. The share price has not been this high since March, but the bid is less than 50% of the 2023 high ahead of the February profit warning. The bid values Kin & Carta at £203m.
Online travel agency Hostelworld (HSW) increased full year guidance in its third quarter trading statement. Nine months revenues are 38% ahead at Euro75.2m. The EBITDA guidance range has been raised from Euro16.5m-Euro17m to Euro17.5m-Euro18m, up from Euro1.3m last year.
Property investor Town Centre Securities (TOWN) announced net tangible assets falling by 15% to 284p in the year to June 2023. It outperformed the benchmark property index. The greatest value declines in the portfolio related to car parks and offices. The loan-to-value has declined to 45.8% following disposals. The total dividend for the year is 5p/share.
Kitchenware retailer ProCook Group (PROC) says revenues fell 4% to £26.3m in the first half. This was helped by a good summer performance, but trading has been tougher in September and October.
Andrew Hore
Brand CEO Alan Green talks markets, Hostelworld (HSW) & Burford Capital (BUR) on TipTV
Buy Hostelworld (HSW) – En-route to paying a maiden dividend, VectorVest believes prospects are exceptionally good
UK based Hostelworld Group (HSW.L) operates a hostel-focused online booking platform, facilitating transactions between customers and suppliers of hostels and other forms of budget accommodation. While the Company’s business is focused on the hostels and budget accommodation sector of online travel, it also owns and operates various customer websites and applications through its brand Hostelworld, along with supporting brands Hostelbookers and Hostels.com. The Company offers its services across a hostel database of over 12,600 hostels and approximately 21,000 other forms of budget accommodation available. Travelers can book accommodation across approximately 33,000 properties in various cities of approximately 170 countries.
On January 25th 2017, Hostelworld issued a pre-close trading update, and said that results for the full year to Dec 31st 2016 (due March 28th 2017) are anticipated to be in line with expectations. The Company delivered 21% growth in bookings for its flagship Hostelworld brand in H2 2016, resulting in 18% growth for the year as a whole. Across all brands, overall bookings growth increasing 2% during H2 2016, leading to a 1% decline for the year as a whole. The Company also reported good progress in its mobile business, with mobile (including tablet) now representing over 49% of Hostelworld brand bookings for the year (2015: 41%). The Company continued to generate excellent free cash flow, which contributed to a strong balance sheet at the period end, and as a result expects to announce the first full year final dividend in March, in accordance with the policy stated at the time of the Group’s IPO.
Hostelworld was flagged up as a growth prospect across VectorVest metrics in June 2016, when the stock fell after a fall in Q2 bookings. Since then, Hostelworld has continued to deliver a steady recovery from 126p, but even at the current 228p, it continues to trade well below the VectorVest valuation of 394p. Indeed the VST (VST is the master indicator for ranking every stock in the VectorVest database) rates HSW.L with a VST rating of 1.26, which is very good on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. VST is computed from the square root of a weighted sum of the squares of RV, RS, and RT. Stocks with the highest VST ratings offer the best combinations of Value, Safety and Timing.
However the safety of the earnings stream on VectorVest (RS) is showing a value of 0.86. On a scale between 0 and 2, this is poor. The investment should be considered only by those that have proven experience in risk management and position sizing.
The chart of HSW.L is shown above with the price in candlestick format. The VectorVest valuation is shown by the green line study, while earnings per share (EPS) is shown in the window below the price as a blue line study. Over the past few days, the share has broken above a 13 week high and is also on a VectorVest buy recomendation. The share has also broken and kissed a trendline defining a 5 wave continuation pattern and looks highly probable to break above the last significant at 243 soon.
Summary: As promised, at the time of the IPO and despite the dip in the share price last year, Hostelworld is on schedule to make a maiden dividend payment with its full year results at the end of March. It does this on the back of strong growth in revenues and bookings and excellent free cash flow, and with VectorVest flagging an excellent forecasted GRT (Earnings Growth Rate) of 33.00%, the prospects appear exceptionally good. Aggressive traders should consider the share.
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March 13th 2017
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