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Ian Pollard – Centrica #CNA Chickens Come Home To Roost
Centrica CNA Produced weak second half results, after poor performances in Business Energy and in particular in North America created material uncertainty around the company and resulted in what it admits was a very poor shareholder experience.. A combination of political and regulatory interventions gets part of the blame but Centrica makes no comment as to whether these were justified or not. Despite a 3% rise in revenue, adjusted operating profit fell by 17%, EBITDA by 9% and basic earnings per share by 25%. Statutory operating profit collapsed by 80% and the dividend not surprisingly remains unchanged at 12p per share.
British Am Tobacco BATS is increasing its dividends by 15.2% after a record year in 2017 which delivered another set of strong financial result. Revenue rose by 37.6% and adjusted diluted earnings per share by 14.9% after completion of the acquisition of Reynolds American in July which it describes as a transfomational deal. On an organic basis cigarette volume fell by 2.6% but that outperformed the market which fell by 3.5%
BAE Sytems BA Delivered a good performance in 2017 and sees an improved outlook for 2018 for defence budgets in a number of markets. Underlying earnings per share rose by 8%, EBITA by 4% and the increase in the final dividend to 13p per share makes a total increase of 2% for the full year.
Moneysupermarket MONY continued to deliver robust results in its core business for the year to 31st December and is increasing final dividend by 6%. Adjusted EBITDA rose by 5%, profit after tax by 6% and basic earnings per share by 7%.
Go Ahead Group plc GOG produced a good performance in the half year to the 30th December and expectations for the full year have have increased due to one off rail benefits. Results for the rail division are ahead of expectations. Profit before tax rose by 19% and basic earnings per share by 7.3%. The interim dividend remains unchanged.
Serco Group SRP delivered a solid performance in 2017, producing profits at the top end of expectations, in a difficult market. The year ended with a strong order book. Despite a 2% drop in revenue for 2017 underlying profit rose by 10% over 2016 and are expected to contiue to grow in both the current year and in 2019.
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Ian Pollard – A Tale of Two Brewers
Marstons MARS has seen its business transformed in recent years and preliminary results for the year to 30th September produced both revenue and earnings growth which in turn led to profit growth in all segments. Statutory revenue rose by 8%m profit before tax by 24% and earnings per share by 12%. The average profit per pub rose by 2% and the strong brand names in beer continued to outperform the market. The final dividend is to be increased by 0.1p per share making a total increase for the year of 2.7%.
Greene King GNK on the other hand found its first half to be a challenge with revenue for the six months to the 15th October down 1.2%, adjusted profit before tax down by 8% and earnings per share by 8.3%. The statutory figures look much better with profit before tax up by 33.7% and basic earnings per share by 30.5%. Management claims that its actions have led to an improved performance in the second half, which begs the question as to why the didn’t act earlier. There is, they claim, still room to continue to generate significant cost savings, which begs a similar question.
Paypoint plc PAY the half year to the 30th September was busy and exciting for management as it continued to reshape the business, giving the Board the confidence that it had the right strategy. Revenue fell by 4.1% and profit before tax by 1.5% but the ordinary interim dividend has been increased from 15p per share to 15.3p, a rise of 2%. On an ongoing basis revenue rose by 2.3% but profit before tax fell by 3%.
Go Ahead Group GOG updates that everything is in line for the 4 months from 2nd July to the 28th October and is expected to remain that way for the rest of the year. The main highlight of the period is that Aslef members ended their long running dispute.
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Go-ahead Group Lagging
Go-Ahead Group GOG is lagging behind in too many areas although it is doing its best to cover the weak spots. The pre close trading statement for t he year to 1st July claims that expectations for the full year are unchanged and the balance sheet is robust. Regional buses showed mixed growth in passenger journeys with some ares being strong and some weak.Passenger numbers and revenue growth were slightly subdued. Full year like for like growth in revenue is expected to be 1% but mileage is expected to be down 1.5%
Full year like for like figures showed passenger revenue up 3% and 4.5% in South Eastern and London Midland but down 4% in GTR. Passenger journeys fell by 4% in both South Eastern and London Midland and up by a tiny 0.5% in South eastern. It does not need a mathematics wizard to work out that these appear to illustrate prices rising whilst passenger journeys fall, which is not the best way to run a railway.
Chemring Group CHG Has restored its interim dividend for the half year to the 30th April, with a payment of 1p per share. Operational and financial performance continued to improve and revenue for the half year rose from £180m. to£ 249.6m. Last years underlying loss before tax of £4m was turned into a profit of £11.3m. On a statutory basis loss before tax fell from last year’s £16.8m to £6.8m and return on sales rose to 6.9% from 2.1%. However the order book at half time was down from £591m to £556.
Frontier Development FDEV expects to report a rise in operating profit of over 500% to £7.2m for the year to the 3rd May. Revenue is also expected to be slightly ahead of previous guidance with a rise of 75%.
Latham (James) plc LTHM reports good trading results for tjhe year to 31st March and an increase in the final dividend to 10.85p, up from last years 10.3p. Pre-tax profit was £13.8m, up £0.9m from £12.9m last year. Since the year end, revenue in April and May has shown a like for like rise of 3%
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Go Ahead Goes For More Rail Contracts – in Germany, Thank God.
Go Ahead Group GOG The really good news is that Go Ahead is bidding for a number of new rail contracts but they are all in Germany, so success will not bring more misery to the UK
The grossly misnamed provider of rail and bus services to the long suffering British public announces that it shares with its customers, expectations for its rail division, namely that they will be lower than what was previously hoped for helpful site. Overall growth rates for the bus division have been suppressed adding to the problems of the troubled company, by what appears to be fairly substantial weakness in the north east but Singapore is doing its best to save the day and make up for the Geordie shortfall. GTR services have been heavily impacted by Aslef’s industrial action but further risks remain.
Centrica CNA expects to exceed its 2016 targets first set out at its 2015 preliminary results. The second half performance has been strong. Efficiency savings have absorbed the effects both of inflation and currency movements and the like for like head count has been reduced by 3,000. Adjusted earnings per share are expected to be around 16.5p. A stronger second half performance in North America energy supply has also helped following the warm weather problems of the first half. Preliminary results are expected on the 23rd February.
Bunzl BNZL has not seen much change since its last update. Forecasts for the year to the end of December are still that group revenue will have risen by 14-15% at actual currency rates and 4-5% at constant currency rates,and all of it due mainly to acquisitions. Bunzl agreed to buy 13 businesses this year. The only change which may be significant is that the 4th quarter has seen the beginnings of like for like growth, contrary to the first 3 quarters.
GVC Holdings GVC is to increase by 49% the special dividend announced on the 3rd November, following strong fourth quarter trading and growing momentum. Results for the year to 31st December are expected to be at the upper end of market expectations.
Impellam Group IPEL admits that it is managing and will continue to manage the business prudently but only because of the prevailing uncertainty in the UK and the fact that UK healthcare performance has been impacted by the actions of the government. One can only wonder how it managed the business previously before these factors came into play and how it will manage it in the future once the need for prudence has flown out of the window, The company spokesperson gets this weeks foot in mouth prize.
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Weir Worse But Hopeful
Weir Group WEI continued to worsen in the third quarter to the 31st October tough trading conditions every every division in decline. Minerals fell by 7%, Oil & gas by 10%, Flow Control by 4% and Continuing Operations by 7%, whether on a reported or like for like basis. Full year profits will be slightly lower than expectations but they reflect tough Middle East conditions and what Weir believes is the nadir for the North American Oil % Gas market and at least there were some signs beginning to emerge that core markets had started to improve.
Royal Dutch Shell RDSA Third quarter income rose by 124% over 2015, as the quarter produced a strong operational and cost performance. Lower oil prices however still presented a challenge. Basic earnings rose by 119% and return on average capital employed more than tripled to 3.8%. Oil and gas production was 25% up on 2015 quarter 3.
BP plc BP. Third quarter profits rose by well over 30% to $933 billion but these are still only half of what they were a year ago, as the results are impacted by weaker prices and margins. Brent oil prices are down by over 10% compared the third quarter of 2015 and high stock levels have caused a steep fall in refining margins. Another sign of how bad things really are is BP’s claim that a fall of well over a third in underlying pre tax cost replacement profits compared again to 2015 quarter 3, is a resilient performance.
Go-ahead Group GOG enjoyed robust first quarter trading with no change in expectations for the full year.
Money Supermarket.com MONY is on track for a record year with a rise of 12% in third quarter revenue, strong growth in insurance, which is continuing to acclerate and impressive growth in energy.
Firestone Diamonds FDI turned last years loss of US10.4m into a profit of $13.6m for the year to the end of June and did so without having produced a single diamond. Production started last month and the first diamond sales are expected to take place in January 2017. The project is expected to be 85% complete by the year end and the company claims that it is now well on the way to becoming a one million carat per year producer. The share price has risen from 15p last November to this mornings 56p.
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Ladbrokes Doesn’t Like Losing – Come On Leicester!
Ladbrokes LAD complains that at Cheltenham bookmaking principles were abandoned because of intense competition and that until then results had been favourable, At least that tells us that one of the main principles of the betting industry is that the bookie always wins and something has gone seriously wrong if they don’t. Similarly Ladbrokes is not looking forward to the end of the football season because it stands to lose 3 million pounds if Leicester wins the Premiership. So come on Leicester, do your best please.
Despite the unwelcome success of the punters, Ladbrokes had an encouraging start to the year with 3rd quarter net revenue up by 10.6% and digital net revenue by over 35%.
SKYplc SKY enjoyed a strong third quarter with strong demand from new customers producing excellent financial results Group revenue rose by 5% and operating profit by 12%. Germany and Austria led the way with a rise of 10% but Italy switched off with a 2% decline in revenue and 49% collapse in profitability.
Sky claims it is building Europe’s leading entertainment business. Looking at the rubbish on offer throughout most of Europe that should not be a particularly challenging task. Presumably “leading” will turn out to mean pandering to the lowest possible audience.
United Carpets UCG Final results will be ahead of expectations and it’s not often you hear that from the carpet industry. The improved trading seen in the first half has continued into the second half with like for like sales up by 6.4%
Go Ahead Group GOG keeps repeating in today’s update that 3rd quarter trading has been satisfactory. In fact it seems to have been a bit better than that with rail revenue up by 5.5%, 9.5% and 3% in its three rail divisions and passenger numbers up by 2.5%, 5% and 3% respectively. Regional and London buses were in line with expectations.
Computacenter CCC Revenue for the quarter to 31st March was flat. Uk revenue was down 4% due to the ending of a large contract.
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