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Ian Pollard: Morrisons – The Legacy Lives On With Bumper Christmas
Morrisons W. Sprmkts MRW If you do not know how to sell a pack of frozen peas, then you should not be on the board of a chain of supermarkets. Britains high streets are riddled with major retail outlets which are in a state of collapse and its Boards are littered with bankers, accountants and management experts with not a grocer amongst them. At Morrisons however the legacy of “our Ken” lives on and the company is leading the big guns of British retailing a pretty dance. Whilst they cry over their shelves of unsold peach and ratatouille consomme, Morrisons just get on with the job of selling goods which its customers want to buy in stores which they want to visit.
The result, Morrisons has just enjoyed its fourth consecutive Christmas of like for like sales growth. Total sales for for the nine weeks to 6 January rose by 4%. Customer satisfaction increased significantly and the price of its basket of key Christmas items remained the same as last year.
Greene King plc GNK is another company which got its festive hat perched at the right angle, as like for like sales over the last two weeks of Xmas and the New Year leapt by 10.9% compared to a rise of only 3.2% over the first 36 weeks of the financial year. It is accepted that the ongoing uncertainty surrounding Brexit may still have an impact on consumer confidence and spending during the year, but the company is confident of the outlook for the full year.
Safestore Holdings plc SAFE has announced its fifth consecutive year of double-digit earnings per share and dividend growth. Revenue for the year to the 31st October rose by 10.4% or 5.2% on a like for like basis and underlying EBITDA by 6.5%.The dividend has been increased from 14p to 16.2p per share, a rise of 16.1%. The company says that the start to its current financial year has been encouraging.
SIG plc SHI faced challenging market conditions and lower trading revenues in the second half of the year, particularly in December. Group like-for-like revenues were down 2.3% over the full year, with the UK and Ireland being particularly badly hit with a like for like fall of 5.7%.
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Ian Pollard – A Tale of Two Brewers
Marstons MARS has seen its business transformed in recent years and preliminary results for the year to 30th September produced both revenue and earnings growth which in turn led to profit growth in all segments. Statutory revenue rose by 8%m profit before tax by 24% and earnings per share by 12%. The average profit per pub rose by 2% and the strong brand names in beer continued to outperform the market. The final dividend is to be increased by 0.1p per share making a total increase for the year of 2.7%.
Greene King GNK on the other hand found its first half to be a challenge with revenue for the six months to the 15th October down 1.2%, adjusted profit before tax down by 8% and earnings per share by 8.3%. The statutory figures look much better with profit before tax up by 33.7% and basic earnings per share by 30.5%. Management claims that its actions have led to an improved performance in the second half, which begs the question as to why the didn’t act earlier. There is, they claim, still room to continue to generate significant cost savings, which begs a similar question.
Paypoint plc PAY the half year to the 30th September was busy and exciting for management as it continued to reshape the business, giving the Board the confidence that it had the right strategy. Revenue fell by 4.1% and profit before tax by 1.5% but the ordinary interim dividend has been increased from 15p per share to 15.3p, a rise of 2%. On an ongoing basis revenue rose by 2.3% but profit before tax fell by 3%.
Go Ahead Group GOG updates that everything is in line for the 4 months from 2nd July to the 28th October and is expected to remain that way for the rest of the year. The main highlight of the period is that Aslef members ended their long running dispute.
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Wood Group weak in the East
by Ian Pollard
Wood Group plc WG has faced continued challenges in its core oil and gas markets in the 6 months to 30th June, with weak activity in the East more than offsetting a robust performance in the West. The first half is down on that of 2016 and is weaker than hoped for but it is expected that the second half will be stronger and it is still intended to pursue what it describes as a progressive dividend policy.
Greene King GNK announces record results for the 52 week to 30th April, after revenue for the year rose by 6.9% to record levels. On an adjusted basis, profit before tax rose by 6.6% but basic earnings per share were down by 23.9%. The final dividend is to be raised by 3.6%. At the Pub company likwe for like sales rose by 1.5%. outperforming the market after a good Xmas, a stronger fourth quarter and Greene King locals doing well.
DS Smith SMDS is increasing its dividend by 19% after another year of good growth for the 12 months to 30th April with organic volume up by 3.2%. Profit before tax rose by 16%, 5 acquisitions were made during the year and progress has continued into the new year. Momentum is now providing confidence in further growth to come.
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Midcap Bonanza among FTSE250 stocks
After the Brexit inspired sell-off, thanks to rising earnings, the FTSE 250 index has recovered sharply to hit record highs and post gains significantly in excess of the benchmark FTSE 100. At the time of the referendum, the slide in sterling was expected to be a disaster for UK plc, especially for those companies without significant dollar earnings. Even so the weaker pound has helped boost exporters’ orders, and although a mild pullback has been seen following the UK Election Hung parliament result, the recent trend shows the pound is continuing to strengthen against the dollar and euro, This stability has enabled midcap companies as diverse as Auto Trader (AUTO), Cranswick (CWK) and Greene King (GNK) to thrive.
These conditions haven’t suited all firms though, and there are plenty still suffering a weak sterling discount. Few pundits could predict the earth shaking political events of the past year, but with Article 50 triggered, and the UK Hung Parliament result, Brexit negotiations over the next two years coupled with European political uncertainty make it hard to identify opportunities. And for many FTSE 250 companies, the risks of a possible UK consumer slowdown cannot be offset by currency gains or outperformance in other parts of the world.
Despite the uncertain backdrop, one key element of the revival among FTSE 250 companies has been strong corporate earnings and positive news flow. Across the board, profits and sales are rising, dividends are being increased, and companies are expanding despite the obvious macroeconomic and political risk. Plus as of yet, consumer spending appears untroubled by recent political events.
Looking ahead, the pound looks stable and set to continue rising against the dollar and euro, a factor that could benefit companies without significant dollar earnings. A stronger pound could also take the sting out of the recent rise in inflation, which has hiked costs for importers.
While the wider global political outlook remains uncertain, financial markets have reacted in a broadly positive manner to the Hung Parliament result. This looks likely to provide backing to the ongoing stability and potential recovery of the pound, which in turn will further support FTSE 250 companies, and for some may even result in stellar growth performances, such as that delivered by Cranswick (CWK) and Cineworld (CINE) over the past year.
Reckitt Benckiser Expects Challenges & Headwinds; Dividend Increased
At constant exchange rates full year reported operating profit for 2016 fell by 3%, reported net income was down by 5% and reported diluted earnings per share rose by 6%
It looks like 2017 will contain more disappointment for RB, despite it having exciting innovations stored in its pipeline. It expects to be buffeted by persistent continuing headwinds and in the first half it fears that macro conditions will be challenging.
Greene King GNK enjoyed strong Xmas trading with the three Xmas weeks seeing sales rise by 4.5%, led by London which was particularly strong. Like for like sales over the 40 weeks to date were up by 1.6%. So far this year the company has sold 59 pubs and acquired 11 new establishments but expects it will be forced to sell a further 50-60 before the year end.
Amur Minerals AMC reports a material and substantial increase in its Mineral Resource Estimate to over 100 million tonnes for the four large deposits in its Kun Mani licence area. A nickel equivalent grade of 1.03% is equal to a total of 1.04 million tonnes of nickel, worth a huge US$10.5billion based on prices as at 1st February.
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Stagecoach Rushes to Brexit; Payment Expected Sometime
Stagecoach Group SGC has announced the sudden disposal of its Megabus Europe retail operations to Flix Bus. It is not getting a single penny in cash and completion is at the end of this week. All it is getting is a loan note for an unspecified amount which it expects to be paid by the end of the year. Normally major companies do not dispose of a large part of their operations without some gaurantee that at the end of the day they will be getting paid a specific amount on a specific date. Perhaps the fact that losses at its european megabus operation soared by sixfold during the year from 4.2m to 24.1m. may have something to do with the unseemly rush to get out.
The company also admits that its bus and rail operations are beset by challenging trading conditions not only in mainland Europe but also in the UK and North America. In particular UK bus growth has been low and UK rail has challenges.
Total operating profit for the year to 30th April fell from 217.9m to 171.7 m. despite a rise in revenue of 20%. The one thing which is not challenged is the final dividend which is raised from 7.3p per share to 7.9p, making an increase of 11% for the year.
Greene King GNK had a transformational year in 2016 with group revenue for the year to the 1st May, up by 57.6%. Profit before tax followed suite with a rise of 60.6% and the dividend is to be increased by a modest 7.7%. revenue passed £2billion for the first time and the new year has started well, with a like for like sales rise of 2.8%.
Dixons Carphone DC. announces another year of significant earnings growth withgroup like for like revenue rising by 5% in the year to 30th april. Even southern Europe, long the laggard, managed 4% growth. Profit before tax rose by 17% and the final dividend is being inxcreased to to 6.5p making a 15% rise for the full year.
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