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Buy Glencore #GLEN say VectorVest. The stock is trending strongly upwards and offers a compelling growth story.
Swiss based FTSE100 giant Glencore (GLEN.L), formerly Glencore Xstrata plc, is one of the world’s largest global diversified natural resource companies and a major producer and marketer of more than 90 commodities. The Group’s operations comprise around 150 mining and metallurgical sites, oil production assets and agricultural facilities. With a strong footprint in both established and emerging regions for natural resources, Glencore’s industrial and marketing activities are supported by a global network of more than 90 offices located in over 50 countries. Glencore’s customers are industrial consumers, such as those in the automotive, steel, power generation, oil and food processing sectors. The Company also provide financing, logistics and other services to producers and consumers of commodities. Glencore’s companies employ around 155,000 people, including contractors.
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On December 12th 2017, GLEN published an investor update, and said that the outlook for its “Tier 1” commodities – copper, cobalt, nickel, zinc & thermal coal were underpinned by persistent supply challenges and robust demand. GLEN added that it was the best placed large cap resources company for the Electric Vehicle revolution. CEO Ivan Glasenberg said the Company expects 2018 illustrative EBITDA of c.$16.2bn at spot/forward prices, adding that GLEN “looks to the future, confident in our ability to continue to create superior returns for our shareholders.”
Along with the other large cap resource giants listed on the FTSE100, GLEN has seen a resurgence in value since summer 2017. The mid December dip in the stock flagged the opportunity and trend both across RV (Relative Value) and RT (Relative Timing) metrics. RV, an indicator of long-term price appreciation potential, logged at 1.55, which VectorVest considers excellent on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. Added to this, the GRT (forecasted Earnings Growth Rate) for GLEN logs at 37.00%, which VectorVest considers to be excellent, and despite a fair RS (Relative Safety) rating of 0.93 (scale of 0.00 to 2.00), at 409p the stock trades a long way below the VectorVest valuation of 610p.
The chart of GLEN is shown above in my normal format. The blue line study in the window below the price shows Earnings per Share (EPS) growing strongly. The share is trending strongly upwards after breaking and subsequently testing a 52 week high.
Summary: To some investors, mining companies represent a greater degree of investing risk. However, in the view of VectorVest, the sheer size and diversity of the Glencore business results in a relatively safe and stable investment proposition, while a resource hungry world and the EV revolution provides a huge market opportunity and a compelling growth story to buy into.
Dr David Paul
January 16 2018
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Ken Baksh – Do you have enough…..commodities?
Black Rock Commodities Income Investment Trust –ISIN GB00B0N8MF98
Commodities have made a strong start in 2018, rising to a three-year high. The Bloomberg Commodity Spot index hits its highest level since 2014 last week after strong readings for manufacturing activity around the world and increased global demand forecasts. A weaker dollar and various supply constraints/worries such as Libya, Iran, North Sea pipeline affecting oil supply and Chinese shutdowns affecting various metals.
Resource companies themselves have cut spending on new projects and have generally stronger balance sheets and are returning more to shareholders.
One way of accessing this sector is through the Black Rock Commodities Income Investment Trust.
The object of this investment trust is to achieve an annual dividend target, (currently 4p), and over the long term, capital growth, by investing primarily in securities of companies operating in the mining and energy sector.
- The fund predominantly invests in large quoted equities, the split between oil and mining being approximately oil, majors plus exploration/production 38%, mining 46%, miscellaneous 16% as at end November 2017.
- Underlying major mining companies, have for the large part responded to the historic weaker trend in resource prices, maintaining balance sheet discipline and adjusting their cost bases.There have been some examples of spectacular self-help stories e.g. Glencore and Anglo American Mining.
- Recent mining conferences have highlighted the need for increased use of Lithium, Cobalt, Nickel and Copper relating to Electronic Vehicles.BRCI has been building exposure to these elements over the last couple of years. For example, Glencore is now one of the leading global suppliers of Cobalt, a vital component for rechargeable batteries.
- Rising economic growth projections, supply constraints and a changing OPEC stance have significantly helped the prospects of the major oil companies held. Royal Dutch, for instance, has announced much better than expected results and offers a dividend yield over of over 6%. Statoil and Total also confirmed the more favourable trend for oil majors.
- As at End November 2017, the Fund ‘s major holdings featured Royal Dutch (6.1%), First Quantum (9.3%), Rio Tinto (6.7%), BHP (6.6%), Glencore (5.0%), and Chevron (4. 5%).The top ten holdings represented nearly 52% of the total portfolio, a relatively concentrated stance.
- The global nature of these companies provides exposure to non-sterling currencies, especially the US dollar. This can benefit both capital and income when sterling is on a weaker trend.
- On a TECHNICAL NOTE, it should be noted that energy and material stocks represent about 25% of the FTSE100 index. If using this as a broad benchmark, the weighting in these sectors can materially affect the relative performance of UK active and passive funds.
- As well as targeting financially strong dividend paying equities the company also employs option writing strategies and an element of gearing, currently near 3%, to further improve the sources of income.
- On an annual yield, over 5%, (payable quarterly), this trust represents a high income longer term value play, but investors should be aware of the volatility of the underlying sector-maybe another reason to adopt a pooled approach. The trust currently trades at a current discount to net assets of near 6%, near the year’s low, compared with the premium on which it traded for most of the last five years (see graph below). The company operates a discount management procedure from time to time.
Sources:Trustnet,London Stock Exchange,Corporate Web Site,Numis.
by Ken Baksh
Ken has over 35 years of investment management experience, working for two major City institutions between 1976 and 2002.
Since then he has been engaged as a self-employed investment consultant. He has worked with investment trusts, unit trusts, pension funds, charities, Life Fund,hedge fund and private clients. Individual asset managed have included direct equities and bonds pooled vehicles currencies, derivatives and commodities.
Projects undertaken in a number of areas including asset allocation, risk control, performance measurement, marketing, individual company research, legacy portfolios and portfolio construction. He has a BSc(Mathematics/Statistics) and is a Fellow Member of the UK Society of Investment Professionals.
Disclaimer
All stock recommendations and comments are the opinion of writer.
Investors should be cautious about all stock recommendations and should consider the source of any advice on stock selection. Various factors, including personal ownership, may influence or factor into a stock analysis or opinion.
All investors are advised to conduct their own independent research into individual stocks before making a purchase decision. In addition, investors are advised that past stock performance is not indicative of future price action.
You should be aware of the risks involved in stock investing, and you use the material contained herein at your own risk
The author may have historic or prospective positions in securities mentioned in the report.
The material on this website are provided for information purpose only.
Please contact Ken, (kenbaksh@btopenworld.com) for further information
Corporate news review Thursday 10th August 2017
Amec Foster Wheeler AMFW reports net pre-tax exceptional gains of £47m in the half-year ended 30 June 2016 and says it has made a strong start to its transformation programme, with the first signs of progress now showing up in the order book.
Cineworld Group CINE reports half year revenue growth of 17.8%, with adjusted profit after tax up 23.5% to £42m. Looking forward the film release programme for the second half of the year includes a number of key releases namely “Justice League”, “Paddington 2”, “Thor: Ragnarok”, “Kingsman: The Golden Circle” and “Star Wars: Episode VIII”, and many more. Based on the H2 film slate the group remains confident of delivering a performance for the year as a whole in line with current market expectations.
DFS Furniture DFS publishes a pre-close trading update, and says H2 has been weaker than expected owing to significant declines in store footfall and customer orders across April, May and June. Overall, Group H2 revenues were 4% lower than the prior year, and following an increase of 7% in H1, expects to deliver growth of 1% over the year as a whole. FY EBITDA will be at the low end of the £82-£87m range previously given.
Evraz EVZ reports strong free half-year cashflow of $549m (H1 2016: $102m), and has reduced net debt to $4.28bn (FY2016: $4.8bn). An interim dividend of $0.30 per share will be paid, equalling an overall payout to shareholders of around $429.6m. Looking ahead, expects the results for the year to also reflect the positive trends on the global steel market.
Glencore GLEN reports adjusted half year EBITDA up 68% and EBIT up 334%, while net debt fell a further $1.6bn to $13.9bn from end of 2016. GLEN says its portfolio of Tier 1 commodities underpins ambitions to create significant long-term value for shareholders.
St. Ives Plc SIV updates on trading and says overall results for the year are expected to be at the top end of the range of current market expectations. H2 revenue was approx 17% ahead of the equivalent period last year and, excluding the effects of currency movements, like-for-like revenue growth was c12%. The group continues to be encouraged by the performance of the segment, which has now returned to strong like-for-like revenue growth, with a significantly improved operating margin. Trading conditions within Marketing Activation segment continues to be challenging, as reported in June 2017.