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Cadence Minerals #KDNC – Corporate Update
Cadence Minerals (AIM/NEX: KDNC; OTC: KDNCY) is pleased to provide an update on the progress of three of its investments. The latest presentation is available on our website.
Hastings Technology Metals (ASX: HAS) (“Hastings”)
On 25 January 2023, Cadence completed the sale of its 30% stake in several mineral concessions forming part of the Yangibana Rare Earths project for a consideration of 2.45 million Hastings shares, equating to approximately 1.9% Hastings issued share capital. This consideration was a premium over the Net Present Value (“NPV”) of the Cadence portion of the mineable material, based on the definitive feasibility (“DFS”) updated by Hastings on 21 February 2022.
Hastings recently published an update on the Yangibana Rare Earth Project, highlights of which are as follows:
- Significant progress during the last two months on enabling construction and ordering long lead critical items.
- A total of $146 million in contractual commitments has been made to date, demonstrating the high degree of confidence by the Hastings Board in the future of the Yangibana project.
- Ore Reserves increased 25% to 20.93Mt at 0.90% Total Rare Earth Oxide (TREO) grade, increasing mine life to 17 years.
- Senior management appointments in the last two months include Rudolph van Niekerk as COO, Robert Klug as General Counsel, and Tim Gilbert as General Manager of Operations. Recruitment is underway for Project Director and the CFO position following the recent career move by Matthew Allen.
- Cost and schedule review identified potential areas for construction contracting model restructuring, optimisation and de-risking.
- The recent engagement of Boston Consulting Group (BGC) to assist in further investigating the merits of an integrated mine-to-magnets strategy and exploration of partnership opportunities.
The full announcement concerning the Yangibana sale is available here.
Sonora Lithium Project (“Sonora”)
Cadence holds a partial interest in the Sonora Lithium Project via a 30% stake in the joint venture interests in each of Mexilit S.A. de CV (“Mexilit”) and Megalit S.A de C.V (“Megalit”). Mexilit, with its El Sauz and Fleur concessions, forms part of the Sonora Lithium Project and is a part of the reserve in the mine plan after initial mining in the La Ventana concession (100% Ganfeng). Mexalit and Megalit are each 70% indirectly owned by Ganfeng Lithium Co (“Gangfeng”) and 30% by Cadence.
A feasibility study report was published in January 2018. The report estimated a pre-tax project net present value of US$1.253 billion at an 8% discount rate, an Internal Rate of Return of 26.1% and Life of Mine operating costs of US$3,910/t of lithium carbonate. Ganfeng has stated that they expect the capacity of phase I will deliver 50,000 tons of lithium hydroxide, which is 42% above the anticipated production levels outlined in the feasibility study.
In 2021, a decree was passed by the Mexican government to reform the domestic energy sector (“Decree”). The Decree stated that lithium would be included among the minerals considered strategic for an energy transition. As a result, no new concessions for lithium exploitation by private companies would be granted. Earlier this month, the Mexican government passed a presidential decree confirming that within a 900 square-mile lithium mining zone in northern Sonora state, existing concessions would “remain safe”. This aligns with the general opinion that the Decree passed by the Senate only impacts licenses, concessions, or contracts to be granted, not already those granted, as is the case for the Sonora Lithium Project.
Amapá Iron Ore Project (“Amapá”)
Earlier this year, Cadence published an economically robust Pre-Feasibility Study (” PFS”) for the Amapa Iron Ore Project. Along with the PFS and subsequent consultations with the key contractors, we have identified three areas of possible improvement to Amapá.
The first will be to review the historical drilling and geological data north of the Amapá mineral concessions. The data has been acquired and is currently being processed to identify further iron ore resources, which, if present, would further increase the mine life. The second area of potential improvement is a change in the layout of the port at Santana by moving the railway loop further from the shore. A scoping study regarding this option has already been completed and identified capital savings. The last area of potential improvement is to investigate and review the flowsheet to improve the final product quality over and above the current 65% iron ore concentrate.
During 2022, the impact of the Ukraine war and the legacy of Covid on supply chains resulted in higher shipping costs and lower iron ore pricing. As a result, only one iron ore shipment was made during the year. The net proceeds of this shipment, along with approximately half of the net proceeds from the shipments in 2021, have been used to pay the secured bank creditors as per the settlement agreement announced in December 2021 here. Given these unprecedented macro-economic conditions, DEV Mineração S.A. (“DEV”) was unable to meet the 2022 payment schedule as per the settlement deed and although the bank creditors have reserved their rights, the settlement deed remains in full effect with all parties in discussions with a view to agree a new timetable in order to rephase payments so these can be met in light of market conditions.
With improving iron ore prices and stability returning to shipping costs, the sale of the 58% iron ore concentrate stockpile is now economically viable. We expect shipping to recommence in the next six months, with the net revenues being used to pay the bank creditors, as per the settlement agreement.
Cadence CEO Kiran Morzaria, commented: “As is the nature of any investment company, our value is driven by the sum of our parts. With the recent reduction in Hastings share price our portfolio valuation has also reduced. However, we see no fundamental reason for this price volatility given the substantial progress. Hastings is making in the construction of the Yangibana rare earth project and we look forward to them advancing to project towards production in 2024.”
“Cadence’s current public and private investments have continued to perform delivering an unrealised return of approximately 172% and our listed investments have delivered a total return (realised and unrealised) of 328%.”
“Our confidence in Amapa continues to grow thanks to a potential further increase in the overall iron ore resource, improvements to the port and prospects for restarting iron ore shipments in the coming months. I look forward to providing further updates.”
| For further information contact:
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| Cadence Minerals plc | +44 (0) 20 3582 6636 |
| Andrew Suckling | |
| Kiran Morzaria | |
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WH Ireland Limited (NOMAD & Broker) |
+44 (0) 207 220 1666 |
| James Joyce | |
| Darshan Patel
Enzo Aliaj |
Qualified Person
Kiran Morzaria B.Eng. (ACSM), MBA, has reviewed and approved the information contained in this announcement. Kiran holds a Bachelor of Engineering (Industrial Geology) from the Camborne School of Mines and an MBA (Finance) from CASS Business School.
Cautionary and Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements in this announcement are or may be deemed to be forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as “believe”, “could”, “should”, “envisage”, “estimate”, “intend”, “may”, “plan”, “will”, or the negative of those variations or comparable expressions including references to assumptions. These forward-looking statements are not based on historical facts but rather on the Directors’ current expectations and assumptions regarding the company’s future growth results of operations performance, future capital, and other expenditures (including the amount, nature, and sources of funding thereof) competitive advantages business prospects and opportunities. Such forward-looking statements reflect the Directors’ current beliefs and assumptions and are based on information currently available to the Directors. Many factors could cause actual results to differ materially from the results discussed in the forward-looking statements, including risks associated with vulnerability to general economic and business conditions, competition, environmental and other regulatory changes actions by governmental authorities, the availability of capital markets reliance on key personnel uninsured and underinsured losses and other factors many of which are beyond the control of the company. Although any forward-looking statements contained in this announcement are based upon what the Directors believe to be reasonable assumptions. The company cannot assure investors that actual results will be consistent with such forward-looking statements.
The information contained within this announcement is deemed by the company to constitute Inside Information as stipulated under the Market Abuse Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014, as it forms part of UK domestic law under the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018, as amended. Upon the publication of this announcement via a regulatory information service, this information is considered to be in the public domain.
Cadence Minerals and the next Commodity Supercycle
There is little doubt that historians will conclude that the global impact of COVID-19 represents the worst crisis since the Great Depression. The pandemic is leaving deep and enduring scars on the global economy, taxing health and medical services to the limit, depriving children of education, while decimating sectors of commerce and industry and in particular leisure and travel.
But history has shown on numerous occasions that the indomitable human spirit has a remarkable capacity for survival and evolution amidst existential crises. As areas such as traditional High St retail and seem to be drawing to a close, sectors such as commodities and mining are booming thanks to a near perfect storm created in part by the COVID crisis.
In October 2020, the IMF stated that the total bill for the global pandemic would reach some $28tn (£21.5tn) in lost output. The rapid intervention by global Governments with rate cuts, looser monetary policies and fiscal stimulus have certainly avoided a financial catastrophe, but at the same time these actions have effectively weakened fiat currencies and increased demand for commodities.
Historically the consequences of such events invariably see a strong recovery in commodity markets. This factor was clearly in evidence as 2020 progressed, and as the COVID noose tightened, prices of commodities such as Iron Ore, Copper and Nickel, along with precious metals including Gold and Silver, all increased in value.
As a consequence, as 2020 progressed prices of commodities such as Iron Ore, Copper and Nickel, along with precious metals including Gold and Silver, all increased in value.
In the wake of the sharp economic contractions in 2020, the IMF forecast that only China was expected to emerge with any economic growth during the year. 2021 is set to be a different story however, and with the vaccine rollout accelerating globally, there are expectations for sharp recoveries across most of the leading economies. Added to this, the new $1.9tn stimulus package in the US from the Biden administration will see heavy investment into ageing US infrastructure. These factors should ensure sustained demand and pricing for iron ore and base metals.
There is also the revolution taking place within the automotive industry to consider. The move towards EV’s is accelerating rapidly, with a plethora of commitments from key automotive manufacturers such as Ford, Volvo, BMW and Jaguar to switch to electric only production in the next few years. This move of course sounds the death knell for the internal combustion engine, but at the same time is driving the cost of battery metals and component commodities such as lithium, nickel, cobalt and graphite
The net effect is that mining, specific commodities and minerals, along with the sector’s nebulous support service industries are undergoing a significant global resurgence. Projects considered uneconomical to develop, and that have remained dormant for years are returning to life, newly financed and fast tracked thanks to the array of modern desktop technologies, data and modelling tools.
Iron Ore
In a note published last December, Goldman Sachs outlined their expectations for another substantial deficit next year (27Mt, GSe), supported by a combination of gradually decelerating China steel demand growth, sharply re-accelerating demand for Western steel and tepid supply growth. GS added that the weighting of the 2021 deficit to the front half of the year points to fundamental support for a sustained price path higher over Q1 and Q2, revising near-term targets for the benchmark 62% iron ore price to 3M $140/t and 6M $150/t.
These numbers of course imply material upside longer term, and GS have also upgraded full year forecasts for 2021 to $120/t ($90/t previously) and for 2022 to $95/t ($75/t previously).
GS sees four core drivers supporting this bullish view:
- Chinese steel production has remained strong & production in 2021 remains supported by a healthy infrastructure and property project pipeline, alongside a resurgence in China’s manufacturing capex cycle and steel exports.
- With construction and heavy industry remaining relatively less affected by second-wave lockdowns, Western steel demand is also recovering ahead of expectations. Significant regional price strength in the US and Europe is likely to spur further blast furnace restarts (and hence iron demand) after an aggressive suspensions phase in 2020 contributed to the current steel supply shortfalls as demand recovers.
- Iron ore supply growth is likely to stagnate in 2021. The limited growth that exists next year is concentrated with Vale Brazil operations, which is why their recent substantive downgrade to production guidance has had such an outsized positive impact on price.
- Chinese mill iron ore inventories remain low, raising the prospect of restocking bursts through the year.
For Cadence Minerals, this bullish outlook for iron ore puts two very firm ticks in the box, firstly for what is widely regarded as the company’s flagship Amapa Iron Ore project in Brazil, and secondly the investment in ASX and TSX listed Macarthur Minerals, with whom Amapa shares numerous infrastructural and evolutionary similarities.
Amapa Project
Bringing a project the size and scale of Amapa back to life has as expected proved to be a complex and challenging process. Nonetheless, DEV Mineração, Cadence and Indo Sino Pty Ltd are reaching a legal settlement with the project creditors, and with the ruling in February by the Commercial Court of São Paulo that port operations and the shipment of iron ore stockpiles can begin, the company is set to take the first practical step towards bringing the project back to life, which will in turn bring benefits to the Amapa region in terms of employment, health and education.
Once the creditor settlement agreement has been signed, an initial $2.5m investment will be released from escrow, meaning that the Pedra Branca Alliance (Cadence & Indo Sino JV co) will own 99.9% of DEV, the owner of the entire Amapa mining and processing assets,. At this point Cadence will proportionately own 20% of Amapa. The next step will involve a further $3.5m investment following the granting of the necessary environmental licenses required to operate the mine, which will see Cadence move to a 27% stake, with an option to increase to 49% once project financing has been raised to complete recommissioning and commence production.
Last November Cadence completed an updated Mineral Resource Estimate for Amapa, which increased the 2012 Anglo American MRE estimate by 21% to 176.7 million tonnes (“Mt”) grading 39.7% Fe in the Indicated category. With a production capacity of 5.3Mt per annum, the survey also noted there was significant potential to increase the resource base after the completion of metallurgical and optimisation studies.
Lake Giles Iron Project
Cadence also has a stake (c1%) in ASX and TSX listed Macarthur Minerals, owner of the Lake Giles Iron Project near Kalgoorlie in Western Australia. The Lake Giles project consists of the Moonshine magnetite deposit and the Ularring hematite deposit, which together have an indicated Mineral Resource Estimate of 218Mt grading 27.5% Fe in the Indicated category.
Lake Giles and Amapa share many similarities in regard to facilities and production routes, and with the Feasibility Study already underway, Lake Giles has a 3.4 Mt per annum production target with potential to scale-up operations.
Lithium
A recent paper published by commodities expert Fastmarkets FB noted that global lithium supply was developing at accelerating pace due to strong and continually growing demand. In particular the demand for compounds used in lithium-ion (li-ion) batteries such as lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide has prompted lithium producers to expand total production while diversifying their investments in different lithium operations to ramp up production and diminish asset risk.
Despite an effective over supply in 2018-2019 that saw a price moratorium and a 50% fall in the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in China, the subsequent seismic shift to bring forward EV production and commitments from major automotive manufacturers around the world saw the price of Lithium in China surge to an 18 month high of $9450 per tonne in January 2021.
The Fastmarkets’ research team expects global lithium demand to grow to at least 1.1 million tonnes per year of lithium-carbonate equivalent (LCE) by 2025 from an expected 300,000 tonnes of LCE in 2019, with Global lithium producers set to boost output year on year to maintain pace with growing demand. Despite this, as can be seen from the table above the numbers still don’t add up, with massive shortfalls projected by Benchmark Intelligence in lithium and other key constituent metals by 2030.
Over 2018, China emerged as the world’s leading lithium-processing hub with the rapid growth of companies like Ganfeng Lithium, which specialise in converting lithium concentrate from hard rock.
Cinovec – European Metals Holdings
The Cinovec project is the largest hard rock lithium resource in Europe and 4th largest non-brine resource in the world. Perfectly located to become the central lithium supply hub for the European EV industry, Cadence owns a 12% stake in AIM listed European Metals Holdings (EMH), which in turn owns 49% of the Cinovec project, (51% owned by utilities giant CEZ Group).
Cinovec is a potential low-cost producer at the bottom of the cost curve, and will sustainably supply 25,267 tpa lithium hydroxide or 22,500 tpa lithium carbonate into the European battery market.
Sonora Lithium Project
Cadence is a 30% joint venture partner with Bacanora Lithium (BCN) on the Fleur Lease (Mexalit & Megalit) at the Sonora Lithium Project in Mexico. A completed feasibility study values Sonora Mexico at US$1.25bn NPV, with some of the lowest production costs at $4,000/t in the industry.
AIM listed Bacanora is focused on building a 35,000 tpa lithium carbonate operation at Sonora with 50% owner and take off partner Ganfeng Lithium.
Australia Hard Rock Lithium Projects
Cadence owns three dormant hard rock lithium assets in Australia. These are Picasso (Western Australia – WA), Litchfield (Northern Territories – NT) and Alcoota (NT) all of which are in regions with proven lithium mineralisation and supportive mining infrastructure.
The Litchfield project, located near Darwin (NT), has an exploration license granted and is contiguous to Core Lithium’s (ASX: CXO) territory. Core has a JORC compliant mineral resource of 8.55Mt @ 1.33% Li2O for its Finnis project (for all six deposits).
Yangibana Rare Earths Project
Operated by ASX listed Hastings Technology Metals, Yangibana is a substantial Rare Earths deposit near Gascoyne in Western Australia. Drilling and sampling have revealed high concentrations of Neodymium and Praseodymium (NdPr), essential components in permanent magnets used in electric vehicles.
Cadence is a 30% joint venture partner with Hastings on part of the Yangibana Rare Earth Element Project. Probable Ore Reserves within the tenements held by Cadence are just over 2m tonnes with TREO of 1.66%.
The current mine plan anticipates production to start from the joint venture areas (Yangibana) in year 6.
A Key Role?
Around the world today there are countless mining exploration companies, commodity investors and mine operators with projects offering scope for development and potential for investment. The challenge with any project of this nature is matching the opportunity with the macro backdrop, projected demand for the commodity alongside capex vs. return, production routes, shipping and completion of cycle to bring the product to the customer.
Rarely if ever has the industry been presented with so compelling a backdrop for the commodity market as a whole. The significant global resurgence seen in the mining sector at present given is entirely sustainable given the level of asset purchases and spending by Governments to rejuvenate damaged economies and the inevitable resulting erosion in fiat currency value.
As economies emerge from the havoc wrought by the COVID virus and restrictions on spending are lifted, it is clear that in many cases demand will outstrip availability. This will apply almost without exception across the commodity spectrum – iron ore for steel to fund reconstruction – lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite and rare earths to address the burgeoning demand for lithium-ion battery production.
There is no doubt that the recovering global economy is embarking on the next great Commodity Supercycle. Many mining groups and commodity project investors will benefit from this phenomenon by owning the right projects, at the right stage of evolution at the right time. On the evidence available today, Cadence Minerals is certainly one of them.