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Andrew Hore – Quoted Micro 22 January 2018

NEX EXCHANGE

Capital for Colleagues (CFCP) reported a decline in full year revenues from £560,000 to £372,000 and there was no repeat of the realised gains on investments in the previous year. There was an increase in unrealised gains from £71,000 to £317,000. However, there was a £1.32m investment impairment. This meant that a profit of £158,000 was turned into a loss of £1.17m. There is £1.28m in the bank. The employee-owned businesses investor is focusing on managing its portfolio and the advisory business spun off into a joint venture. The NAV is 42.7p a share.

First Sentinel (FSEN) has invested the £1.4m it raised when it joined NEX last year. These investments include fellow NEX-quoted company NQ Minerals, where First Sentinel boss Brian Stockbridge is chairman, AIM-quoted UK Oil and Gas Investments and AIM-quoted Premier African Minerals. There is a £65,000 loan to unquoted tea cafés operator Yumchaa, where Stockbridge is 50% shareholder. The loan has an interest rate of 12% and lasts until October.

Block Energy (BLOK) has further delayed the planned move to AIM. The oil and gas company has a new expected admission date of end-February. Trading remains suspended on NEX.

AIM

Mark Watkin Jones intends to step down as chief executive of student and private rental accommodation developer Watkin Jones (WJG) but he will stay until a successor is identified. In the year to September 2017, revenues were 13% higher at £301.9m and underlying operating profit rose by a similar percentage to £42.7m. The dividend was 6.6p a share, equivalent to a 10% increase if Watkin Jones had been quoted for all the previous year. Investor demand for student accommodation and private rental residential property remains strong.

Van Elle (VNL) has an outstanding debt of £1.6m from failed facilities management and construction company Carillion. finnCap has also assumed lower second half profit of £1.3m relating to expected business from Carillion. The specialist piling contractor has a poor record since floating and this does not help.

Engineering and IT recruitment company Gattaca (GATC) says that most of Carillion’s debt to the company is insured with around £100,000 uninsured. Premier Technical Services (PTSG) says that it has £800,000 of annual revenues with Carillion with £300,000 still owed. Elsewhere, business is in line with expectations. Bilby (BILB) says that it does not think that the contract with CarillionAmey will be impacted.

Sinclair Pharma (SPH) directors have been buying shares on the back of the news that it has received regulatory approval of Ellanse pre-mixed bioresorbable collagen stimulating fillers in Brazil, one of the most important global markets. Ellanse will be soft launched immediately and the full launch is a matter of weeks away. Other Sinclair dermatological products are selling well in Brazil.

K3 Capital (K3C) reported interim figures that were better than forecast. This led to a £1m increase in forecast full year revenues but the pre-tax profit forecast is maintained at £5.4m because of additional costs required to accelerate the growth of the business. The business broker and corporate finance adviser announced an interim dividend of 2.85p a share and a total dividend of 8.2p a share is forecast for the full year.

Full year trading at Midwich (MIDW) was better than expected with revenues 28% ahead at £470m, helped by acquisitions performing ahead of expectations. The audio visual equipment distributor has also improved gross margin. The 2017 results will be published on 13 March.

Utilitywise (UTW) has changed its accounting policy relating to initial revenue recognition of new contracts.

LiDCO (LID) has signed up a new Japanese distributor. Merit Medical has a three year exclusive agreement and there is potential to significantly increase last year’s sales of £117,000. The LiDCOunity version 2 monitor has been approved in Japan.

African Battery Metals (ABM) is the new name for Sula Iron and Gold. Prior to the name change, £1.75m was raised and the Riverfort facility terminated with an associated buy back of shares. ABM is paying $100,000 ($50,000 is still outstanding) for a 70% stake in cobalt licences in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The other shareholder will retain its 30% stake up until a decision is made to mine, so ABM will pay the exploration costs.

Orosur Mining Inc (OMI) produced 7,052 ounces of gold at an average cash operating cost of $867/ounce in the second quarter and plans to produce at least 30,000 ounces in the financial year. Although the South America-focused gold producer and explorer generated $2.16m in cash in the second quarter, there was a $251,000 loss in the period because the all in sustaining cost was higher than the gold price received. Asset Chile has forfeited the 16% stake it earned in Anillo because it did not move into phase 2 of the project.

Shareholders have approved share buybacks by China New Energy Ltd (CNEL) until the end of 2019. Up to one-fifth of the shares can be acquired for less than 2p a share. The bioenergy technology developer and operator increased revenues from £8.85m to £24.7m in 2017 and the order book is worth £13.7m. The company was profitable last year and anticipates it will be in 2018.

Data software company WANdisco (WAND) says bookings increased 45% to $22.5m in 2017 with two-thirds generated by WANdisco Fusion software. There was cash of $27.4m at the end of 2017, with $4m from a new growth capital facility.

Thor Mining (THR) has had its stake in US Lithium diluted to 20.8% due to a A$240,000 fundraising at A$0.12 a share, which is four times the Thor acquisition price. US Lithium plans an ASX-listing.

Veltyco Group (VLTY) is acquiring a 51% stake in Varkasso, which has exclusive rights to use the crypto wallet technology platform 8Crypt, for £265,000 in cash and shares. Veltyco will incorporate the 8Crypt crypto wallet in all the gaming platforms it is involved with.

Newmont Mining has decided not to become involved in the Greatland Gold (GGP)-owned Ernest Giles gold project in Australia. It appears that the project was not in the right place or large enough for Newmont to go ahead with, although it took its time to make a final decision. Greatland benefits from the work conducted by Newmont, which has identified a large gold anomaly. Targeted exploration will be undertaken at Ernest Giles in the first quarter of 2018.

Kodal Minerals (KOD) says that the authorities have approved its exploration licences for the Bougouni lithium project in southern Mali. Triumvirat Mining Company will have a 10% economic interest in the licences, which are for an initial three year life. There has been positive drilling news concerning the Ngoualana and Sogola-Baoule prospects.

Electrical accessories supplier Volex (VLX) moved from the Main Market to AIM on 19 January.

Waste gasification technology business EQTEC (EQT) has partially repaid a five-year, £1.1m loan facility with an annual interest rate of 15%. The remaining balance of £621,000 is repayable in July 2020. The £2m of convertible secured loan note with Altair Group Investment Ltd has been extended until July 2020 and the interest rate doubled to 15%.

Renewable fuels technology developer Velocys (VLS) has raised £14m via a placing at 10p a share and hopes to raise up to £4.4m through an open offer at the same price. Last year, there was a £1.16m share issue at 45p a share. The cash will be used to finance initial development of the Mississippi biorefinery and fund the UK waste-to-renewable jet fuel project which has been around for many years.

Generic drugs supplier Beximco Pharmaceuticals (BXP) expects to complete the £18.2m acquisition of a 85.2% stake in Nuvista Pharma by the end of February.

Gama Aviation (GMAA) says last year’s trading was in line with expectations. The business aviation services provider has incurred $1m of costs relating to legal proceedings and there will be a similar amount to come. There will be around $2.5m of restructuring costs and write-downs. Net debt fell from $19m to $13m.

Although Blancco Technology Group (BLTG) says that first half sales declined this is due to the fact that certain contracts were not repeated in the latest period. The data erasure software business is expected to report continuing full year revenues 6% higher at £28.5m. However, higher overheads mean that there will be little profit.

Cyber security software supplier Crossrider (CROS) says that 2017 trading was in line with expectations and revenues improved 16% to $65.8m, while underlying EBITDA was 29% ahead at $8.3m. Profitability from the core activities more than doubled. There was $69.4m in the bank at the end of 2017.

Legend Gold Corp shareholders have agreed to the arrangement for Altus Strategies (ALS) to acquire the entity that owns the Legend gold projects in Mali in return for 41.1 million Altus shares. The mining projects investor is also applying for a dual listing on the TSX-V. Legend shareholders will be issued three Altus shares for each Legend share that they own, giving them 27.6% of Altus.

Toys supplier Character Group (CCT) says it has exited Christmas with “virtually no excess stocks”. International sales were poor but domestic sales grew. Pokemon products will be launched during the summer.

Caledonia Mining Corporation (CMCL) reported higher than guided annual production at the Blanket gold mine. The prediction was 54,000-56,000 ounces but the outcome was 56,135 ounces.

Sustainable pallets manufacturer RM2 International SA (RM2) had unrestricted cash of $4.1m at the end of 2017, but that could fall to $2m by the end of January. That means that there should be enough cash until the third week in February. Management continues to seek additional finance. There are plenty of potential customers but little in the way of orders.

Tiziana Life Sciences (TILS) has raised a further £150,000 at 150p. This is on top of the £150,000, £275,000 and £200,000 raised at the same price during November and December. There is a warrant with each new share and they are exercisable at 160p a share, although the most recent warrants last until January 2024. The cash is being invested in the phase IIa clinical trial for the Milciclib cancer treatment.
Remote tracking and monitoring products developer Starcom (STAR) says that last year’s turnover improved from $5.1m to $5.5m and lower operating costs mean that it will move from loss to breakeven. Strong orders mean that revenues and margins should improve this year.
Condor Gold (CNR) has obtained a TSX listing.

MAIN MARKET

Path Investments (PATH) is cancelling its standard listing even before finalising its acquisition of a 50% participating interest in the Alfeld-Elze licence and gas field in Germany. The plan is to cancel the standard listing on 19 February and raise money and apply for an AIM quotation in the first quarter of 2018. Path has previously been on AIM in a different guise but if the deal does not go ahead the plan would be to maintain the standard listing.

World Trade Systems (WTS) plans a transaction involving the sale of its assets to a new company that will float on the Channel Islands-based The International Stock Exchange. WTS shareholders will be distributed shares in the new company that will be used to acquire the assets.
Loss-making telecoms firm Toople (TOOP) did not publish a full set of figures on RNS. That is always a giveaway. It did announce that the operating loss declined by 23% to £1.31m in the year to September 2017. Cash flow is much more important for a colander company like Toople.

Technology investment company Sure Ventures (SURE) has joined the Specialist Fund Segment of the Main Market, having raised £3.31m at 100p a share. The main focus is augmented reality, fintech and the Internet of Things.

Challenger Acquisitions Ltd (CHAL) has invested $300,000 in a new giant observation wheel for Dallas, Texas. Challenger also has the opportunity to operate the wheel.

Andrew Hore

BT Caught Out in Major Fraud.

BT Group BT.A has reluctantly apologised for cheating on its Openreach customers over a number of years. After a whopping £42m fine which has now been imposed by Ofcom, it did not have much choice but it still has the audacity to try and get away with calling them “mistakes”. Ofcom takes a slighty different view and calls them “serious failings” and they were serious failings which BT doggedly refused to do anything about for three years.

Even after it had been caught out, BT refused  for those three years from 2013, to pay any compensation to those of its customers who had suffered loss. In the end Ofcom has forced it to come to the table to agree a compensation figure which it is expected, will reach something in the region of £300m. BT laughingly blathers on about failing to adhere to its extremely high standards of customer service but makes no mention of action against any of its management who were responsible for what was in effect a major fraud.

Elecosoft plc ELCO saw a significant improvement in trading and financial performances in 2016 and the current year has started well. Like for like revenue on a constant currency basis for the year to the end of December rose by 8%. Profit before tax was up by 42%, EBITDA by 35% and basic earnings per share by 55%. The proposed final dividend is 0.25p, making a total of 0.4p for the year. Eleco also claims that it is well placed for trading post Brexit.

YouGov plc YOU enjoyed a strong period of organic revenue and profit growth in the half year to 31st January. Revenue grew by 24% or 8% on a constant currency basis. Earnings per share were up by 21% and profit before tax by 27% on an adjusted basis. trading in the second half has started positively.

Bioventix BVXP produced a strong first half performance and is inceasing its interim dividend by 21%. Turnover grew by 32% and profit before tax by 49% in the six months to 31st December.

Gama Aviaton GMAA claims an exceptionally busy year for 2016 and a robust financial performance, with aircraft under management up by 12.2% and total revenue at record levels with a rise of 12.6%. US air revenue for the year to the end of December rose by 30% and ground revenue by 15%, as Gamma became a powerful market leader in the US. Europe however told a different story with air revenue down by 5% and ground revenue by 15% as  it extricated itself from contracts it may have been better without and entered a restructuring programme. On a reported basis, profit before tax nearly tripled to $19.3m and earnings per share nearly doubled to $42.9m. the dividend is increased by 4%.

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Buy Gama Aviation (GMAA) – We are impressed by earnings growth and the rate of contract wins, says VectorVest.

Gama Aviation plc (GMAA.L), formerly Hangar 8 PLC, is a UK-based global aviation services company with over 24 heavy jets under management. Gama’s various aircraft types offer services ranging from short European itineraries to trans-continental voyages. The Company also charters aircraft to third parties, provides insurance, operational support and aircraft crewing services. Segments include US: Air, US: Ground, Europe: Air, Europe: Ground, MENA: Air, MENA: Ground, Asia: Air and Other.

On January 9th 2017, in advance of FY results due 27 March 2017, Gama issued a trading update for the financial year ended 31 Dec 2016. The group said it had seen strong revenue growth of over 10% year on year, with earnings in line with market expectations. Earnings also excluded a material foreign exchange credit, which resulted from the unusually volatile currency fluctuations during the year. Noting improvements in the performance of its European business arm, Gama also said it had increased the number of aircraft under management to 165 (147). CEO Marwan Khalek said it had been a “busy and productive year for Gama Aviation,” adding that the recent combination of the US Aircraft management business with BBA Aviation “is a clear demonstration of our determination to build scale into our business in ways that add value to our shareholders.” Since the results, GMAA has also won two long-term mission contracts, announced a long-term business aviation maintenance collaboration with China Aircraft Services Ltd and a Europe-wide maintenance agreement with WIJET.

Gama Aviation’s potential had been flagged up across a number of VectorVest metrics at the start of 2017. The Earnings Growth Rate (GRT), which reflects a company’s one to three year forecasted earnings growth rate flagged a forecast of 20.00% for GMAA, which VectorVest considers to be very good. Added to this, the VST-Vector (VST) metric, computed from the square root of a weighted sum of the squares of Relative Value (RV), Relative Safety (RS), and Relative Timing (RT), rates GMAA at 1.32, which is very good on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. Last but by no means least, VectorVest values GMAA at 272.83p per share. Therefore, the stock is undervalued at the current 207p per share.

A weekly chart of GMAA.L is shown above and shows the strong advance since the middle of December 2016 on strongly growing earnings. This advance has emphatically broken the down sloping trend line in price over the past year. I would suspect that the share will pullback over the next few days and chart a “right shoulders” prior to resuming the uptrend. A pullback to the last major high at 200 would be a excellent entry point.

Summary: The GRT metric shows the rate at which GMAA earnings are growing; no coincidence given the number of new contracts announced since the bullish trading statement in January. Although the stock is not without risk, VectorVest expects the valuation gap to close significantly ahead of the results in March. Buy on any weakness over the next few days.

Dr David Paul

February 1st 2017

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