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German Economy Soars on the Back of Greek Austerity
Over the past 5 years the German economy has soared as the Euro has become weaker and weaker on the international currency stage. Not all that many years ago the the DAX was at about the same level as Londons FTSE, which has remained stuck at under 7,000 whist the DAX has gone ahead in leaps and bounds until it stood at over 12,000 before its recent retreat, as Germans became worried that Greece may exit the Euro.
And Germans were right to worry because without Greece the Euro would have become a super strong currency, just like the Deutchmark of old. By making the Euro weak Greece has, almost single handedly been responsible for the soaring level of German exports and Merkel knows this.
Yet the Germans claim that the Greeks have no right to expect any further subsidies and if Germany has its way Greece will not get any further help and Greeks will be puished even more with extra doses of austerity. The truth of the matter is that austerity and the collapse in the Greek economy has been the equivalent of a massive subsidy by Greece to Germany. Germany has not once complained about the weakness of the Euro and why should it. It has been one of the greatest beneficiaries of the decline of the Euro. And that is what a single, one size fits all, currency union is all about. Transfer of wealth from the poor countries to the wealthy countries.
The Germans are desperate for Greece to remain in the eurozone but they are not prepared to contribute a single cent more to the country which has enabled Germany to have a huge and illegal budget surplus which it repeatedly refuses to reduce.
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Has Primark Gone ex Growth ?
Associated British Foods, ABF, owners of Primark have been reduced to claiming that Primark has been impacted by currency rates. Amazing how when things start to go wrong currency rates is the directors first choice as to where to lay the blame. The fact that in the previous years of heady growth, currency rates never got a mention as being in any way responsible for the success – allegedly superb management alone was responsible then.
Now management has also had to admit that its decisions to open new stores in Germany and the Netherlands impacted its existing outlets and caused a fall in sales in those outlets.
Like for like sales in the past 16 weeks have only been in line with those of last year and continue to be held back by the effect of those new stores in the Netherlands and Germany. The UK it claims delivered a positive like for like performance but the details as to how positive, are not mentioned. Primark usually trumpets its growth figures in every announcement. Why has UK growth now become a closely guarded secret ?
As for currency problems, Primark sources most of its products in dollars and the strength of the dollar has impacted margins. It claims that it is now taking action to remedy this.
Over the first 40 weeks to date, total sales rose by 13% on a constant currency basis or by 9% on an actual currency basis due to the weakness of the Euro. Selling space in that period however, increased by 8%.
No doubt all will be revealed at the year end but flat like for like sales over a 4 month period, may not bode well. Let us hope that management does not have to delve even deeper into the excuses drawer.
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It Looks Like OXI and Europe Calls for Overthrow of the Greek Government
A week ago Greece’s debt suddenly became irrelevant to the unelected officials of the ECB, the IMF and the Eurozone. For the last 7 days solving the debt problem has hardly received a mention. The Troika suddenly lost interest in it, for a far more insidious threat. The Greek government was doing the unthinkable, it was giving the Greek people a choice as to whether accept or refuse the Eurozones proposed deal, which the Troika immediately withdrew from the table. As long as there was to be a referendum there could be no further attempts to solve the crisis. The terrified Troika’s only concern became how it could threaten and bludgeon the Greek people to says “Yes”
Firstly it stopped immediately the agreed daily support to the Greek banks, resulting in immediate imposition of stringent withdrawal limits of 60 Euro per day from ATMs. Many pensioners without bank cards, could not get their pensions. Lesson number one for the Greek people. we are going to make this very hard for you.
And then came the real threats many from political and European leaders and officials who were not even involved in the debt dispute. Here are just a few;
“Armageddon “ Without new money, salaries wont be paid, the health system will stop functioning, the power network and public transport will break down” warns President of European Union. This is a Eurozone matter at best, involving the Troika. It has nothing to do with the EU but even if it did what right does its President have to threaten the people of a member nation, without the EU itself first deciding that will be its stance.Is this an example of European so called unity which now appears to have completely disentegrated in the face of democracy.
“Meltdown” The head of the European Parliament says the country faces total meltdown if it rejects creditor demands. What has it got to do with him. Who told him to say this. The European Parliament would not normally say boo to a Goose as its members are too busy slurping up gravy from the Eurotrough.
Greece is now under economic siege by its so called allies in Europe. The ATMs are tonight running dry. The likelihood is that in the morning there will be no notes left for them to be refilled. st rangely enough t he first bank to “go under” and stop replenishing its ATMS was HSBC which closed ATMS down as early as last Wednesday. It even could not be bothered to replenish its ATM at Athens airport, forcing its customer to use Greek ATMS instead. That presumably is what happens to a bank which gets involved up to its neck in money laundering and fiddling interest rates. Customer care flies out of the window.
Overthrow of the Greek Government The head of the European Parliament has now called for the democratically elected government of Greece to be replaced by a government of technocrats – presumably unelected in the true traditions of the EU. To hear that makes it a very,very sad day for Europe.
And now the results are beginning to come in and it looks like OXI. Tomorrow could be one of the most important dates since 1939. Is Europe about to tear itself apart or will common sense prevail in the end.
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Greece On the Brink of Collapse
After only four days of closed banks the Greek economy is already collapsing.
Manufacturers who need to import basic materials can no longer do so and are facing closure.
Supplies of basic medicines will soon begin to run out. Whether you are dying of cancer or just suffering from hay fever, will become irrelevant.
Supermarket shelves are already beginning to empty and are unlikely to be restocked, especially with anything containing imported products.
The allowance of 50 Euros per day in withdrawals from a bank, means that most people can not pay their rent or other larger bills .
EasyJet founder Stelios Hadji Ioannou is alone feeding 2,500 people every day in Athens.
The Greek banks are down to their last 500 million Euro, for a population of 8,000,000 or more
Credit cards, which people thought could help to keep them going, are becoming unacceptable. Even if the credit card companies pay the trader, what is the point if the trader can not get the money out of the bank in order to restock supplies.
Dixons has already announced it will close down its larger Kotosobolos stores and perhaps reduce opening hours at the remainder.
As dawn breaks today, things will be even worse. Many Greeks have not yet woken up to the reality of their immediate future and think they will get by with large purchases of lentils and tinned milk. The reality they face will be far worse than that reflected by a shortage of toilet paper.
The crunch will really come when fuel supplies start to run out, perhaps later next week, leading to major power cuts and empty roads. How will basic daily necessities be delivered to the shops and supermarkets, if there is no fuel for delivery vehicles.
And all of this imposed by unelected bureaucrats in Brussels, terrified by the thought of Greece, the home of democracy, daring to have a referendum, which may challenge their rule. Let them remember that next year the UK is also daring to have a referendum as to whether to stay in a Europe whose rulers are prepared to impose hunger, starvation and death to get their own way.
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The End of the European Dream (1)
Europe’s leaders, elected and unelected, believe that if austerity is imposed on a country to such an extent that its economy collapses by 25% in 3 years, then that will increase the country’s chances of repaying its debts. Outside Europe there is not an economist in the world who believes such crass nonsense.
Greece has been profligate, its people have lived off credit and led lives of luxury which they could not afford. The day before Greece joined the Euro interest rates in Greece were 23%. The following day, under the one size fits all principal, they fell to 3% and Greece went on a shopping spree. This delighted the Germans who were struggling to pay for the reunification with East Germany and breaking every rule in the European rule book, to do so. They needed a boom and welcomed the Greeks sudden ability to buy Mercedes, Porsches, Bosch and every other piece of hardware that Germany is so good at making. A new airport for the Olympics ?, certainly we can build it and we’ll run it for you as well, cried the Germans.
Greeks happily agreed to austerity, believing the lies they were told about how it would enable them to build a better economy and repay their debts. Instead they saw soup kitchens, starving people searching through rubbish bins for a scrap of something which may still be slightly edible, children taking their school meal home to share with their hungry parents. Thus the European dream became a nightmare until in 2015 the Greek electorate realised they had been taken for a very long ride and bravely elected a new and honest set of politicians, who were prepared to say no to the nonsensical policies emanating from Brussels and Berlin.
And then the threats started, as unelected bank bosses and beaurocrats suddenly found themselves facing a government which dared to refuse to obey. We will throw you out of the European Union if you dont behave – said the bankers, ignoring the fact that the threat was both empty and illegal, we will stop supplying cash to your banks forcing them go bankrupt and close down, leaving you all without money – again another illegal threat.
Meanwhile Germany continues to earn its 6% budget surplus in breach of the same set of rules which Greece was accused of breaking. But Germany is now powerful enough to ignore the repeated requests made by a toothless Brussels to reduce its surplus to within the legal limits.
Not much sign so far of the European Dream in which countries helped each other, when they got into difficulties.
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