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Ian Pollard: Rank Tough Trading Dominates
Rank Group plc RNK describes trading in the first half of the year as tough and looking at the figures that seems to be an understatement, although an improved second quarter seems to have instilled some confidence as to the prospects for a better second half. As for the first half the minus signs overwhelmingly dominate. Profit before tax is down 30.5% or 27.6% on an adjusted basis and earnings per share fell by 23.8%. Apart from digital revenue and digital like for like revenue which rose 5.1% and 15.8% respectively, the only other figure not showing a minus sign is the interim dividend which remains unchanged at 2.15 p. per share.
Unilever plc ULVR 2018 showed continued profitable growth in volatile markets. Adverse currency movements impacted turnover by 6.7% but 4th quarter and full year sales still grew by 2.9% and earnings per share were up by 5.2%. Market conditions were challenging throughout the year, particularly in the second half. Accelerating growth will be the number one priority. for 2019 building on what the company describes as a solid 2018
BT Group Plc BT updates on its nine month and third quarter performances to the 31st December. Reported revenue fell by 1%. but Reported profit before tax rose by 20%. The outgoing Chief Executive was happy that they had continued to deliver consistently against their strategic objectives in a tough market.
Diageo DGE delivered a strong consistent performance during the six months to the 31st December Reported net sales rose by 5.8%, operating profit by 11%, driven by organic growth which grew ahead of net sales at 12.3%. and the interim dividend is to be increased by 5% to 26.1p per share. Basic earnings per share declined by 1.3 pence per share.
Dairy Crest Group DCG The four main brands, Cathedral City, Clover, Country Life and Frylight – all delivered strong volume and revenue growth for the third quarter ended 31 December 2018. On a combined basis revenue growth came in at around 10% for the third quarter and 6% for the nine months ended 31 December 2018. Spreads continue to gain market share. Frylight returned to double digit volume and revenue growth in the third quarter, although a challenging first half saw the nine month figures for the brand decline. The Chief Executive describes the performance of the key brands in the third quarter as having been exceptional. Brexit is creating significant uncertainty.
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Ian Pollard: ABF – A Headline A Day
Associated British Foods ABF Yesterdays headline trumpeted that Primark blamed three periods of unseasonable weather for sales sliding by 2.1% over the year to the 15th September. But today a new day has dawned and brought with it new headlines as the media stands on its head and proclaims that today’s truth is that Primark has in fact delivered a strong performance with sales rising by 1%. Like for like sales in the UK rose by 1.2% where its share of the clothing market grew significantly. Despite suffering in Europe where sales were weak and fell by 4.7%, total sales including those from fifteen new stores in nine countries, grew by 5%
Perhaps George Weston the CEO got it right when he calmly headlined that it had been another year of progress, with strong profits, not only from Primark but from each of its other world beating divisions, grocery, agriculture and ingredients, with only sugar letting the side down. Adjusted profit before tax rose by 5% and earnings per share by 6% whilst the final dividend is increased by a healthy 10% in line with the promises of a strong profit performance made in Septembers update.
Marks & Spencer Group MKS waved its magicians wand and produced a 7.1% increase in profit before tax after revenue which fell by 3.1% in the half year to the 29th September. The company is now going through the first phase of it transformation programme which includes the closure of over 100 stores and the introduction of a” new, very determined and energetic management team” which indicates that the previous management team must have been regarded as somewhat lacking in these qualities. The store closures had their effect on revenue with Clothing & Home down 2.7%, Food down by 0.2% or 2.9% on a like-for-like basis, reflecting tough trading. Looking at the level of their food prices perhaps there is little wonder that trading was tough.
Persimmon PSN “All gone” is the word from Persimmon which admits that at the end of its third quarter on the 6th November it is fully sold up for the current year and forward sales beyond 2018 are 9% up on a year ago. Sales prices remain firm and consumer confidence is described as being resilient.
Dairy Crest Group DCG claims delivery of a good performance in the half year to the 30th September, driven by its two largest brands, Cathedral City and Clover. Profit before tax fell by 88% and basic earnings per share by 89%. Revenue rose by 2% and the interim dividend is to be increased by the same amountBeachfront Houses & Apartments For Sale in Greece http://www.hiddengreece.net
Ian Pollard – Royal Mail #RMG impacted by poor service
Royal Mail RMG Letter revenue in the 3 months to the 24th June fell 7% but GLS continued to perform strongly, with volumes up 10% and revenue up 11%. The Quality of Service performance has been so bad and has impacted the company to such an extent that on the 1st June Ofcom commenced an investigation into it for the 2017-18 financial year. The outlook for addressed letter volume is not good and the expected decline of between 4-6% per annum may be exceeded and in GLS margins may be impacted by continuing labour market pressures. One brighter area was parcels where revenue rose 6% and volume 7%.
Talk Talk Communication Group TALK delivered strong customer and Headline revenue growth in the first quarter to the 30th June as momentum continued. Performance and demand in the various divisions is described as being strong or solid. Taking into account the ongoing cost reduction programme,this is expected to produce annual EBITDA growth of 15%.
Dairy Crest Group DCG updates that sales of its four key brands in the 3 months to the 30th June were 6% higher than last year. The two largest brands, Cathedral City and Clover, continued to outperform with revenue growth of 10%. This was true generally for spreads which continued to go from strength to strength, whilst the butter market remains challenging. The full year outlook remains unchanged.
Galliford Try GFRD expects to report strong pre-exceptional results, after a strong underlying performance for the year to the 30th June. At Linden Homes the average private sales price, rose 4% to £367,000.and a further significant improvement in margins is expected. A total of 3,442 units were completed, up from 2017’s 3,296 units.
Clinigen Group CLIN has performed strongly in the year to the 30th June, with reported revenue rising by 26%. Commercial medicines had an excellent year. It is anticipated that results will be in line with market expectations and that in the coming year there will be further growth across all parts of the business.
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Ian Pollard – Dairy Crest Well Ahead
Dairy Crest Group DCG Total revenue for the nine months to he 31st December is well ahead of the previous year as key brands produced a strong performance with revenue growth of 7%. Spreads continued to gain market share.
Wizz Air Holdings WIZZ Revenue for the quarter to the 31st December rose by 24% and passenger numbers were up by 24.3% to 7.1m. Profit rose 3.6% to record levels but profit before tax was down by 56%. The fleet increased to 88 aircraft during the quarter. The airline is now the leading low cost airline in Central and Eastern Europe and opened its 145th destination at Athens.
3i Infrastructure 3IN The Board is delighted with the performance over the 3 months to the 31st December as exceptional value was generated for shareholders. Net Asset Value is expected to have increased by 15% to 199p per share, helped by the sale of of investments in two companies which brought in gross proceeds of over £1 billion. In addition the portfolio is delivering strong income and the target dividend of 7.85p per share for the full year is expected to be fully covered.
Centamin CEY saw profit before tax decline by 16% for the year to the end of December whilst earning per share fell by 49% and EBITDA by 13%. A fall in gold sales, a drop of 2% in revenue, increased costs and the impact of the first full year of profit share all contributed to the problems but a finl divi of 10 US cents per share is to be proposed.
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Finsbury Food Faces Up to A Deflationary Market
Finsbury Food Group FIF claims it produced a strongly resilient performance in the year to 1st July, as it faced the challenges of a deflationary market which saw group like for like revenue remain flat. A final dividend of 2p per share is to be paid making a total of 3p for the year, a rise of 7.1%.. Sales and profit margins both increased and on a like for like basis adjusted profit before tax rose by 5.6%. The competitive success of the company is illustrated by a 15% rise in sales to continental Europe.
Dairy Crest DCG expects that profit for the half year to 30th September will be ahead of last year after Clover and Frylight showed strong volume growth and Cathedral City remained “the nations favourite cheese”. Problems remained with Country Life as sales volume was impacted by reduced promotional activity to try and mitigate the high price of cream. Seems a bit illogical to try and save money by reducing sales.
Hiscox HSX expects Hurricane Harvey will produce claims of some US$150m. which is within the range expected from a major hurricane. It is anticipated that 2017 will be a bad year for natural disasters. Harvey was the first major hurricane to hit landfall for 12 years and the aim is to pay claims quickly. Premiums, after a long period of decline, are expected to stabilise and then ti start increasing.
Petra Diamonds PDL Net profit after tax slumped by 69% for the year to 30th June as finances were impacted by delays in the expansion programme, the strength of the Rand against the dollar and rising costs, despite revenue for the year having rise by 11% on volume up by 8%. Basic earnings per share fell from 10.38 cents to 3.47cents. Net debt which is expected to start falling from the second half of 2018, rose from US$382m. to US$553m and lenders have agreed since the year end to waive two covenants. The signs for 2018 do not appear to be all that sparkling as like for like diamond prices fell by 3% at the first tender of the year.
MP Evans MPE is doubling its interim dividend after operating profit for the six months to 30th June more than tripled, following a 56% rise in crude palm oil production, at the same time as prices enjoyed a 10% rise. Crops rose by 26% as young trees began to mature.
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Weak Pound Is Not A Crutch For Weak Management
Experian EXPN produced revenue growth of 6% in the quarter to the 30th June. On an organic basis the growth was 4% and for business to business on an organic basis it was a sturdy 7%. But Experian is yet another company producing appalling figures for the UK which suffers more and more from the devastation wreaked on the country by politicians who regard a weak currency as the greatest benefit they can give to the nation and deliberately pursue policies aimed at destroying the value of the pound. Revenue in the UK & Ireland fell by 13% during t he quarter and even at constant exchange rates there was a decline of 3%.
Royal Mail RMG CEO Moya Green believes that a 1% revenue rise in the three months to the 25th June can fairly be described as “another strong performance” in GLS. Total letter revenue fell by 4% but she remains silent as to whether that is weak or strong. Parcels did better with revenue up by 3% on volume up by 5%. Star performer was Royal Mail Tracked Services with growth of 39%. Despite miserable figures in some areas, she claims that the overall trading performance for the quarter was good.
Dairy Crest DCG Volume sales for Dairy Crests four key brands in the quarter to 30th June are 7% ahead of last year, Cathedral City leading the way with a rise of 15%. There is a cloud on the horizon in the form of increased input costs, which have increased substantially for the butter business and led to a reduction in the promotion of Country Life in order to try and save money. Overall however trading for the quarter has been in line with expectations.
Ideagen plc IDEA is increasing its final dividend to 0.142p per share making a total increase for the year of 15%. Revenue for the year to 30th June rose by 24%, profit before tax by 22% and underlying organic growth by 10%. Trading since the year end has been robust with strong demand from new customers.
Alliance Pharma plc APH Sales in the six months to the end of June grew by 8% with help from a weak pound adding £2.6m part of which was offset by higher import costs. The cp,[any’s international growth brands have been successful with sales growth of 50% or more.
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Dairy Crest To Be Impacted By Food Price Inflation
Dairy Crest Group DCG Expects a good first half performance, with Clover, Country Life and Frylight all showing strong volume growth for the half year which will end on the 30th September. Market share continues to be increased. However there are clouds on the horizon in the shape of price inflation which has already started and which the company expects to impact margins and butter volume in the second half. The milk price paid to farmers has risen by 12% and the price of cream has doubled in a very short period.
Petra Diamonds PDL Net profit after tax rose by 12% for the year to 30th June following only a 1% rise in revenue on production up by 16%. Petra describes these as a strong set of results despite pressure on prices in the first half and unusually it gives no further information on prices, preferring instead to the look to the future outlook it see for 2017 which it claims will be the year when all the promises start to become reality. Firstly it will enter the final stage of its expansion program and in the second half it expects to become free cashflow positive, despite some caution about future diamond prices but again no further information is provided.
Finsbury Food FIF performed strongly during the year to 2nd July with adjusted profit before tax up by 40.8% and the final dividend increased to to 1.87p, making a rise for the year of 12%. Like for like revenue was up by 5% and total revenue by 24.8%. 2016 was the year when it delivered on its growth strategy and rolled out vision and value at all levels, whatever that may mean. For 2017 claims to be excited about new innovations for muffins and doughnuts. The balance sheet is strong and it has made record capital investment for the future
Styles & Wood STY produced a strong performance for the half year to 30th June with good growth and strong cash generation. Significant success was achieved in securing long term contracts as its diversification program began to bite. The company returned to profitability with last years first half loss of £0.5m being turned into a profit of £0.4m and earnings per share coming in at 2.6p compared to last years loss of 10.2p per share. Net debt has been virtually halved.
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