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Ian Pollard – Telecom Plus #TEP Delivers New Records
Telecom Plus TEP delivered record revenue, profits and dividends in the year to the 31st March, with growth and momentum becoming significantly faster. The impact of a warm winter and the Ofgem price cap have led to expectations that pre-tax profits will be towards the lower end of previous guidance at around £56m. For 2020 however it is expected that accelerating growth will lead to adjusted profit before tax of between £60m and £65m and a 10% increase in the total dividend to 57p per share, compared to this years 4% rise to 52p per share,
Countryside Properties plc CSP reports solid trading in the 6 months to the 31st March, with completions up by 43%, the private average selling price down by 4% and a strong forward order book up 49%. After a slow start to the year, the spring selling season is described as having been robust. Completions are expected to be weighted towards the second half.
Bunzl plc BNZL Group revenue in the first quarter from the 31st December increased by 4% at actual exchange rates whilst at constant exchange rates the rise was 2.5%. The rate of underlying revenue growth however slowed during the quarter due to mixed macroeconomic and market conditions across the countries in which the Group operates, especially in North America.
ZOO Digital Group ZOO reports that the financial outturn for 2019 is frustrating and has been impacted by market shifts and client disruption, The company has already disclosed that planned investment has impacted on profitability to such an extent that adjusted EBITDA in the second half will be around break-even at around $0.5m.
Dialight plc DIA continues to work on its recovery and global end markets continue to be robust.The Board expects further progress to be made in 2019 and the Group’s results to be heavily weighted towards the second half.
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Ian Pollard: Countryside Properties – Average Selling Prices Broadly Flat
Countryside Props plc CSP Total completions in the first quarter from the 1st October to the 30th December rose by 28 % and the forward order book by 78%. The strong growth in completions was driven by a sharp increase in affordable homes, up 52% and Private Rental Sector, up 66% . This was due to the acquisition of Westleigh. Broadly flat average selling prices at £395,000 with a 1% to 2% underlying increase, is not the sort of news which the housebuilding industry, likes to hear.
Restaurant Group plc RTN opened a record number of new sites in 2018 but saw like for like sales fall by 2% and total sales rise by 1%. Since the World Cup however the Group has delivered like-for-like sales growth and the Pubs business is continuing consistently to trade ahead of the pub restaurant sector and the Concessions business has also traded strongly. The company describes the year as a pivotal one which is hardly matched by the sales figures..
Biome Technologies plc BIOM saw 2018 group revenues show a rise of 42% over 2017.. Over 2018, sales of the non-woven filter mesh for the US single serve coffee market increased, together with other revenues, by more than 50%, The company’s portfolio of bioplastics applications are expected to contribute substantially to sales, particularly in the latter part of 2019.particularly, something known as the rigid ring project. A much higher performing disposable cutlery is another new product expected to be successful in the US. Revenues in the RF Technologies division for the year ended 31 December 2018 provided a 75% increase on the previous year. 2019 is expected to see a gradual but substantial increase in Bioplastics revenues.
Shield Therapeutics plc STX has entered 2019 in good shape with revenues for the year to 31st December 2018 expected to to have soared to. £11.9 million from 2017’s £637,000 and including the 11m. upfront payment received from Norgine on the signing of the licence agreement. Royalty income from Norgine during 2019, is anticipated to grow steadily based on sales in the UK and Germany,
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Ian Pollard – WH Smith #SMWH benefits from “potentially poisonous” slime related products
WH Smith plc SMWA appears to be well esconced in cloud cuckoo land with a claim that it had a good year in the High Street where trading profit fell by 3%. Nonetheless it identified and joined the latest trend by becoming a one-stop-shop for all “slime related” products. Not surprisingly a relationship to slime was followed by a 3% fall in revenue,which is perhaps a good thing. Despite the strength of travel where revenue rose by 3% on a like for like basis, group profit before tax for the year to 31st August was down by 4% and diluted earnings per share by 5%. All this lack of success resulted in a 13% rise in the final dividend, no doubt well justified and logical in the eyes of the board. Let us hope that those slime related products are not as unsafe and potentially harmful as some busybodies like Which are beginning to suggest. Otherwise that 3% drop in revenue may be regarded as having been a good year as news of alleged safety problems including burns begin to surface. The dangers of slime related toys were exposed by The Telegraph as recently as July when it reported that consumer watchdogs found many slime related toys are potentially poisonous because of their boron content.exposure to excessive levels of which can cause irritation, diarrhea, vomiting and cramps in the short term,
Countryside Props CSP produced one of the biggest disasters to hit the house building industry in recent times. It was forced to reduce its average selling price by 7% in the year to the 30th September due to what is described as “regional mix”.(nothing to do with Mother’s Pride I am assured) However, with the average selling price still as high as 402,000 there is still plenty of room for more good news for the few who can still afford to buy a house. Completions for the year rose by 27% and as at the year end the total order book was up by 40% compared to 2017
Dunelm Group plc DNLM reports total like for like revenue growth of +4.2% in its first quarter to the 29th September, compared to 9.3% for the previous year. In fact but for tablet-based selling in-store for home delivery, underlying like for like performance would have fallen by 0.4% which is not a good sign at all. Online sales however helped to save the day with a rise of 33% which would have been even greater at over 50% had those in store online tablet sales been included.
Hays plc HAS claims a good start to its financial year, with yet another record quarterly net fee performance producing growth of 9%. The Rest of The World in particular showed strong growth with the USA and China, up 27% and 29% respectively.
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Alan Green Brand CEO talks about: Cadence #KDNC Prairie Mining #PDZ Countryside Properties #CSP & Ferrum Crescent #FCR with Justin Waite on the Vox Markets podcast
Alan Green CEO of Brand Communications talks about: Cadence #KDNC Prairie Mining #PDZ Countryside Properties #CSP & Ferrum Crescent #FCR
(Interview starts at 27 minutes 48 seconds)
Buy Countryside Properties #CSP says VectorVest – This well managed company offers a compelling investment case for any portfolio…
Countryside Properties (CSP.L) is a leading UK homebuilder and regeneration partner specialising in place making and urban regeneration. The business is centred around two complementary divisions, Partnerships and Housebuilding. Partnerships specialises in urban regeneration of public sector land, delivering private and affordable homes by partnering with local authorities and housing associations. The Housebuilding division, operating under Countryside and Millgate brands, develops sites that provide private and affordable housing, on land owned or controlled by the Group. CSP was founded in 1958. It operates in locations across outer London, the South East, the North West of England and the Midlands.
On May 17th 2018, CSP published half-year results to March 31st 2018. The company reported a strong first half, with in line trading and good momentum into H2. Adjusted operating profits rose 22% to £46.8m, with completions 19% higher at 1172 homes. A strong net cash position enabled the group to acquire Westleigh Homes from existing cash resources post period end. Current trading is reported as ‘robust’, with visitor levels, cancellations and net reservation rates all in line with expectations and the prior year. CEO Ian Sutcliffe added: “…with continued strong growth in Partnerships and improved efficiency and returns in the Housebuilding division we remain confident of maintaining our sector leading growth over the medium-term.”
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A perennial favourite of VectorVest despite a retracement in the share price in late 2017. The recent upward move in the GRT (Earnings Growth Rate) metric flagged up on the VectorVest stock analysis and portfolio management platform in March 2018 and is also clearly indicated on the chart below. The forecast growth in earnings continues all the way through to today’s GRT rating of 25%, which VectorVest considers to be excellent. Although the RS (Relative Safety) metric only registers a fair rating of 1.00 (scale of 0.00 to 2.00), trading at 374p the stock is still way below the current VectorVest valuation of 539p per share.
A weekly chart of CSP.L is shown above in my normal format. The share is breaking upwards through a 52-week high and is on a buy recommendation on VectorVest. The technical target should be a repeat of the directional move made in March to July of 2017. This would result in a technical target similar to the current VectorVest valuation.
Summary: It is generally accepted that well managed UK property investments are ‘safe as houses’. I have spoken of the virtues of CSP on many occasions, and while the ‘fair’ RS rating may see conservative sector investors look elsewhere, in the view of VectorVest the substantial valuation upside on offer and excellent GRT rating adds up to a compelling investment case for any portfolio. Buy.
Dr David Paul
May 15th 2018
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Ian Pollard: Countryside Properties, Robust & Excellent
Countryside Properties CSP The half year to the 31st March saw excellent progress and robust trading in all regions. After strong growth the interim dividend is to be increased by 24% with reported revenue rising by 14%, operating profit by 19% and basic earnings per share by 23%.
National Grid plc NG produced a strong operational and financial performance for the year to the 31st March On a statutory basis profit before tax rose by 24% and earnings per share by 116%. On an underlying basis the figures were 4% and 3% respectively. Medium term growth is expected to beat the top end of the 5-7% range.
Royal Mail plc RMG With parcel volume the best in four years and a resilient letter performance, the year to the 25th May was another successful one for Royal Mail, despite a challenging environment., Revenue rose by 2% and profit before tax edged up from £559m. to £565m. whilst basic earnings per share rose from 41.1p to 45.5p. The dividend for the full year is to be increased by 4%.
Experian EXPN put in a strong finish to the year with fourth quarter total revenue growth of 12% or on a like for like basis, 8%. The strong performance came despite profit before tax falling by 7% which is deftly transformed to a rise of 7% at actual benchmark rates, enough to justify a 10% rise in the second interim dividend.
Thomas Cook Group TCG The half year to the 31st March saw like for like revenue rise by 5% and following a strong airline performance coupled with a reduction in net finance charges the seasonal winter loss before tax was improved by 16m. Summer demand is strong with bookings up by 13%.
Churchill China CHH is making good progress in the current year, with trading since March ahead of last year. Further progress is being made in both export markets and in the UK.
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Ian Pollard – Countryside Properties #CSP – building cost inflation moderates in London
Countryside Properties plc CSP enjoyed robust trading during the firt half year to the 31st March., in addition to which there was growth from acquisitions. Total pricate completions rose by 15% with the total average selling price falling by 11% to £392,000. Housebulding completions rose by 7% with the average selling price remaining flat. The company claims that private forward bookings were strong with a fall from £347m. to £327m. Current trading is described as robust and building cost inflation has moderated particularly in London and the south east.
Bunzl plc BNZL Since the 31st December revenue at constant exchange rates has risen by 14%, with underlying growth of 6% and an impact of 8% from acquisitions. Underlying growth is expected to return to more normal levels for the reminder of the year. In March two further acquisitions have been completed, one in the US which produced revenue of $50m in 2017 and the second in the Netherlands which produced 6m. Euro in 2017.
Mediclinic Intnl plc MDC Results for th year to the 31st Mach are expected to be marginally ahead of expectations following a significant second half improvement from the Middle East division, which is now entering an expansionary phase. This is expected to produce a srong increase in revenue and margins over time. In Southern Africa revenue growth of 5% is anticipated which is ahead of expectations.
Moneysupermarket.com Group MONY produced total revenue growth of 4% for the quarter to the end of March, in line with expectations and led by Home Services with a rise of 15%. The group anticipates meeting current market expectations for the full year.
AnimalCare Group plc ANCR Revenues to the 31st December will be slightly ahead of management expectations whilst sales growth during the current financial year is expected to be stronger, with underlying EBITDA, net earnings and earnings per share all expected to maintain at least double digit growth
Segro plc SGRO made a strong start to 2018 with a record level of new headline rent delivered for the quarter from the 1st January to the 17th April. Last year the first quarter figure was £16.3m.. This year the figure shot up to £27m.
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Ian Pollard – Countryside Properties -A Lesson in Clarity and Profitability
United Utilities UU must have decided to make its half year report as obscure and meaningless as possible. Thus it is full of PR19S, ODIs, RCV Gearing and the latest craze, System Thinking. What it wont do because presumably it would make the figures for the 6 months to the end of September too easy to understand, is tell you the percentages by which mundane things like revenue and profit in all its various guises have risen. That is a fairly easy task for even the most junior office boy in most head offices – but perhaps I should not run the risk of being regarded as sexist when of course I should have said “junior person”. So you can have your profits four ways – underlying, reported, underlying after tax and reported after tax but what you are definately not allowed to see are the figures on a statutory basis. The figure all show reasonable increases and the interim dividend is going up from 12.95p to13.24p per share. What that rise means in percentage terms is however a closely gaurded secret, known only to that junior person at head office who is the only member of senior management with the System Thinking skills able to work it out.
Thomas Cook Group TCG has woken up to the fact that it is a “good thing” to claim to have a customer focused strategy. Not before time, some may say, after the traumas of recent years. How serious they are about it remain to be seen but having discovered that it can lead to profitable growth, there may be a fair chance that they will give it a go.
Their table of figures is not all that easy to understand but I think I have got it after the third reading. Profit after tax for the year to the 30th Spetember has risen from 1 to 12 which is clearly shown as a difference of 11 which in the last colomn becomes a like for like rise of 7 on a constant currency basis. If you would like to know what the 7 means you are invited to proceed to page 12 – clearly this must be part of the new customer focused strategy. Underlying earnings per share is understandable with a rise from 8.1p to 9.3p and there is an explanation that like for like group revenue on a constant currency basis has risen by 9%. The recommended dividend is 0.6p per share but we are not enlightened as to whether that is a rise or a fall on last year. Perhaps I should go back to page 12 to find out. And before I forget, cutting complexity is one way in which they intend to produce further growth. Some chance.
Countryside Properties CSP shows how it should be done. Simple. On an adjusted basis earnings per share rose by 71% in the year to the end of September, revenue was up by 32%, completion by 28% and operating profit by 34%. It was an excellent and record year and perhaps one of the most significant statistics (which will be very unwelcome to the competition) is that they reduced the average selling price by 8% which most housebuilders would regard as a criminal offence.
Finsbury Foods FIF announces that the UK retail food market hass moved from a deflatioary to an inflationary environment and thus helped to take the load off managements shoulders which is now finding it easier to run a bakery profitably. UK sales have risen by 5% whilst European sales are down by 3% despite all those fancy baguettes, brioches and black unsliced.
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Dr David Paul of VectorVest discusses Victoria (VCP), Coats Group (COA), Countryside Props (CSP), Taptica (TAP & Berkeley Grp (BKG) on Core Finance TV.
Hidden Gems! Dr David Paul of VectorVest discusses Victoria (VCP), Coats Group (COA), Countryside Props (CSP), Taptica (TAP & Berkeley Grp (BKG) with Matt Brown on Core Finance TV.
Countryside Props. Slashes House Prices
Countryside Props CSP did what for a house builder, is the unthinkable, it slashed its average selling prices with the result that for the year to 30th September, completions rose by 28% overall and the forward year end order book stood at a record level. The rise in completions was 17% in the partnership division and 31% in the private division. The private average selling price was reduced by a massive 23% to £515,000 and not surprisingly customer demand remains strong. The private average selling price in the partnerships division, however was increased by 12% to £343,000 with the strange explanation that this was due to strong price growth in outer London and regional cities. The logic of all this appears to be dubious to say the least because it indicates that we should, logically speaking, be expecting bad news from the private house builders whereas the opposite is more likely. (but see Telford Homes below)
Telford Homes TEF expects pre tax profits for the half year to the 30th September will be significantly lower than they will be in the second half of the current financial year and than they were, last year. Shareholders must understand that this is all down to the timing of completions and the company’s answer to this is to base the interim dividend on what they expect the full years profits will be, rather than on the actual outcome of the first half. It is understood that there is no question of a refund being asked for if the boards expectations for the full year are wrong.
Dunelm Group DNLM Trading in the first quarter to the 30th September was boosted by favourable weather which helped to produce strong growth, as the company outperformed the homewares market. Revenue rose by 24.8% reduced to 9.3% on a like for like basis. % new stores were opened in the quarter and five more are still to come.
Page Group Plc PAGE Gross profit for the groups third quarter grew by 8.8% in constant currency terms but with the poor old UK the laggard, with a fall of 7.6% due to those old favourites, challenging market conditions and the impact of Brexit. Only one other country showed a decline and that was Australia, down 2%, whilst the mighty French grew strongly, up 21% and the US led the pack with a rise of 29%. Foreign exchange movements also gets a mention, having contributed 3% points to the profit growth.
Wood Grp (John) Plc WG. has been awarded a new five year multi million dollar contract by Total to provide onshore maintenance services at it Lindsay oil refinery. There is a right to extend the contract for a further 2 years. Woods CEO immediately goes for the jargon and says that the new contract will help the company to broaden its downstream footprint but thankfully makes no mention of pipelines.
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