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Back in the Markets – Doc Holliday talks to Alan Green
Doc Holliday is back in the markets. He talks today to Alan Green. Among other things, we discuss the macro backdrop, Russia and Ukraine, the big money, motorcycles, cars, hiking, hillwalking and stocks including Petra Diamonds #PDL Centamin Gold #CEY Contango Holdings #CGO Semper Fortis #SEMP Nostra Terra Oil and Gas #NTOG and Wickes #WIX
Andrew Hore – Quoted Micro 20 January 2020
NEX EXCHANGE
NQ Minerals (NQMI) generated gross revenues of A$15.5m and gross profit of A$7.4m from Hellyer gold mine in the fourth quarter. Full year revenues were A$53.9m and operating profit was A$12.2m. The profit grew steadily quarter by quarter. NQ has raised £311,000 at 7p a share. In December, £300,000 was raised at 6.5p a share.
Clean Invest Africa (CIA) says that is subsidiary Coaltech has signed a memorandum of understanding with the Uzbekistan ministry of innovation and development and Uzbekistan Railway. The coal fines project could have an initial value of $16m. A plant would be built to process coal fines into coal pellets. Coal mining is an important industry in Uzbekistan. There will be feasibility studies and the development of a business plan. This deal comes via the joint venture with Creon Investments, which is focused on Russia and former Soviet Union countries.
Ganapati (GANP) says that its Malta-based subsidiary has signed a two-year endorsement agreement with Welljam, which owns the rights to Usain Bolt’s services and image rights. Ganapati has is launching the first official Usain Bolt online slot game when the Tokyo Olympics are held during the summer. Usain Bolt will be attending the ICE London iGaming event in February. There are initial licence payments for image rights during the development of the slot game and a share of future revenues.
Ananda Developments (ANA) says that its investee company iCAN Israel-Cannabis has raised money via a convertible that places a pre-money valuation of $20m on the company. Ananda invested $200,000 in a convertible loan in August 2018 and $100,000 of the loan has been converted into 120 shares worth $200,000 at the latest valuation. DJT Plants, which is 50%-owned by Ananda, has received planning permission for the construction of a facility for cannabis plant breeding and propagation.
Property investor Ace Liberty and Stone (ALSP) reported a dip in pre-tax profit from £334,000 to £306,000 in the six months to October 2019. The NAV improved from £21.2m to £21.9m over the six month period, even though £349,000 was paid in dividends.
Imperial X (IMPP) has switched its investing strategy back from medicinal cannabis to energy-related businesses. The focus is building a royalty stream from oil and gas interests.
Mark Leigh is taking over from Claire Spencer as finance director of Newbury Racecourse (NYR).
Broadband-focused shell SAPO (SAPO) has raised £27,500 at 2.75p a share.
Diverse Income Trust has reduced its stake in TechFinancials (TECH) to below 3%.
Lawyer Gateley (GTLY) generated organic growth of 10.5% in the first half and it is on course to meet analyst expectations for the full year. The main first half growth was in the corporate and pensions businesses. The most recent acquisition will take annualised non-legal revenues to 12% of the group total. A full year pre-tax profit of £21.3m is forecast.
Regional legal business Knights Group (KGH) increased interim revenues by one-third to £32m through a combination of acquired and organic growth. Underlying earnings were 9% ahead at 5.95p a share. Net debt was £17.1m at the end of October 2019. The interim dividend was raised by 83% to 1.1p a share, although Knights was not quoted for all the comparative period. Two Birmingham-based firms have been acquired since the period end.
Legal firm Ince Group (INCE) raised £12m at 45p a share. The share price has more than halved since the beginning of the year. The January 2019 placing was at 140p a share. There are plans to raise £2m by a one-for-8.398 open offer and £2m via an offer to staff. The cash will enable the working capital facility to be reduced and finance investment in building up staff numbers. Net debt was £10.4m at the end of September 2019.
Pharmaceutical services provider Ergomed (ERGO) has acquired Ashfield Pharmacovigilance Inc for $10m and this will be earnings enhancing in 2020. The deal boosts Ergomed’s position in pharmacovigilance services and gives it a stronger position in the US. Ashfield has annual revenues of $11.6m and contracted future revenues of $9.8m.
Dekel Agri-Vision (DKL) has established a 50/50 renewable energy joint venture with Green Enesys that will operate a 36MW hybrid power (solar and biomass) project in Ivory Coast. This should reduce costs at the palm oil project in Ayenouan. There could be other potential power projects in the region. Dekel is benefiting from the recovery in the crude palm oil price. It produced 37,649 tonnes of crude palm oil in 2019, even though poor weather led to disappointing fourth quarter production. Later this year processing of cashew nuts should commence.
Biopesticides developer Eden Research (EDEN) generated revenues of £2m in 2019, down from £2.8m, and an operating loss of £1.4m. Product revenues grew even though the summer weather restricted usage of Botrytis.
Lettings agency The Property Franchise Group (TPFG) is setting up a financial services division. Acquisitions are planned and the first is a 72.25% stake in Auxilium Partnership, which is the business of newly appointed financial services director Mark Graves. This has been a source of growth for rival Belvoir (BLV).
D4T4 Solutions (D4T4) has confirmed that its second half trading is much stronger than the first half thanks to the contracts won by the Celebrus data analysis software business. The financials sector has been a productive customer base for Celebrus. D4T4 is increasingly winning SaaS business and this could hold back short-term growth, which could lead to the trimming of 2019-20 forecasts.
Instem (INS) continues to increase its recurring revenues. The pharma software company generated organic revenues growth of 12% in 2019. Pre-tax profit is expected to be £3.3m. Net cash was £5.9m. A jump in profit to £4.7m is forecast for 2020.
Estate agency Winkworth (WINK) says 2019 profit was modestly ahead of expectations and a total dividend of 7.8p a share is proposed, which is higher than forecast.
Telit Communications (TCM) did better than expected in 2019 and excluding the former automotive activities revenues grew by 8%. The internet of things technology developer is forecast to make a 2020 pre-tax profit of £20.1m.
Pharma data analytics firm Diaceutics (DXRX) generated more cash tan expected last year and made a small profit. Thee was cash of £11.7m at the end of 2019. The 2020 pre-tax profit could be £800,000.
Barkby Group (BARK) has exchanged contracts on a development site in Huntingdon, which has a gross development value of £10.7m.
Risk management software developer KRM22 (KRM) says 2019 revenues were slightly lower than expected at £4m. Delayed contracts are expected to be signed soon.
Telematics firm Quartix (QTX) managed to maintain revenues at £25.6m in 2019 and a small increase is expected in 2020. The mix of revenues has changed with fleet generating 80%, up from 73%, thanks to growth in the US and France. Insurance revenues fell as expected as low margin business was shed. Pre-tax profit is still expected to decline from £8.2m to £6.6m in 2019, with a further fall to £6.3m forecast for 2020. The dividend is expected to be reduced from 12.4p a share to 12.1p a share, although it will not be fully covered by earnings.
Base Resources (BSE) has increased production guidance for the Kwale mine with midpoints of 78,000t for rutile, 345,000t for ilmenite and 30,500t for zircon. There is a lack of supply of rutile and ilmenite, so this is good news. This should provide a strong boost to profit.
Pressure Technologies (PRES) has been fined £700,000 and will have to pay prosecution costs of £169,000 following the guilty verdict relating to a fatal accident at one of its sites in 2015. The first instalment of £215,000 is due in April with a further six equal instalments payable every six months between July 2020 and January 2023.
Oil and gas explorer and producer Empyrean Energy (EME) is raising £420,000 at 9p a share and chief executive Tom Kelly has contributed £200,000 of that cash. The placing was at a 9% premium to the market price. The cash will be spent on drilling offshore of Indonesia. There is a potential resource upgrade for the Mako gas discovery in Indonesia.
Mereo BioPharma (MPH) says that there have been positive results from the phase 2b study of Setrusumab in adults with osteogenesis imperfecta. They show that it is helping to build bone. A study with children is planned. A meeting with the FDA is due in the coming weeks. Earlier this year, Mereo signed a licence agreement for the use of Navicixizumab in ovarian cancer with Oncologie Inc. An upfront payment of $4m is due.
Nutrition provider Science in Sport (SIS) expects to report 2019 sales of £50.5m with underlying growth of nearly one-quarter. The fastest growth is outside of the UK. River and Mercantile has taken a 5.5% stake.
MAIN MARKET
Shareholders in AIM-quoted Anglo African Oil and Gas (AAOG) have agreed to the sale of 80% of its Congo subsidiary to Zenith Energy (ZEN) and it is waiting for government approval. There is a put and call option over the other 20%. If the call option is exercised Zenith will pay £1m in shares. If the production at the Tilapia oilfield averages at least 4,000 barrels of oil per day for 30 consecutive days, the put option can be exercised and Zenith would pay £2.5m in shares.
Endeavour Mining Corporation has ended its merger discussions with gold miner Centamin (CEY) blaming a lack of information. Endeavour still believes that a combination would be positive. Centamin is raising its final dividend to 6 cents a share, taking the 2019 total to 10 cents a share, up from 5.5 cents a share. Net cash was $348m at the end of 2019. The higher gold price will further boost cash generation. A new chief executive still has to be appointed.
Standard list cash shell Trident Resources (TRR) has £3.29m in cash at the end of October 2019, which is similar to NAV. Management is assessing a few mining project acquisition opportunities.
Stevia sweeteners producer PureCircle Ltd (PURE) says that shareholders owning more than 10% of the share capital have put forward three proposed directors to be voted on at the AGM on 10 February. The company is happy for Sridhar Krishnan, Lai Hock Meng, a former PureCircle director, and Oliver Maes, who was previously a PureCircle director, to be appointed to the board.
Books publisher Quarto (QRT) is raising £13.9m at 68p each. The open offer is underwritten and it will help to reduce the debt burden.
Menswear retailer and hirer Moss Bros (MOSB) Total sales were 3% lower in the 24 weeks to 11 January, but gross margin improved. Hire revenues fell by 17.7%. Cash is £12m.
OTHER MARKETS
Pallets manufacturer RM2 International (RM2) intends to move from AIM to matched bargains market Asset Match (www.assetmatch.com).
Andrew Hore
Ian Pollard – Allied Bakeries, part of AB Foods #ABF Loses Out On Price “Discussions”
Assoc. British Foods ABF claims that its results for the 24 weeks to the 2nd March are robust, with statutory profit before tax down by 15%, basic earnings per share by 19% and profit at AB Sugar down substantially. Say no more ! Grocery did produce strong underlying growth, with good momentum, Primark reverted to its usual role of saving the day for the rest of the Group, with excellent profit growth of 25%. Group revenue was 1% ahead and adjusted operating profit was 1% lower. Allied Bakeries seem to have been having a rough time and has had its largest private label bread manufacturing contract terminated by a major retailer. Noticeably this happened after recent customer discussions on pricing only some of which were successful. The effect of the volume loss is expected to be seen in the next financial year. A non-cash impairment charge of £65m has been recognised as an exceptional item in the income statement. The interim dividend is to be increased by 3%.
Centamin plc CEY claims to have made a solid start to the year, with the quarter to the 31st March having delivered ahead of expectations. Despite being the weakest quarter forecasted for 2019 , Sukari produced 116,183 ounces of gold in the first quarter compared to the forecast of 105,000 – 115,000 ounces. A stronger second half is forecast, with delivery of approximately 55% of the expected annual production during that half.
Biome Technologies plc BIOM updates that Group revenues achieved for the first three months of the year were 11% ahead of the previous quarter at £2.1m,
Boohoo Group plc BOO claims delivery of yet another excellent set of financial and operational results for the year to the 28th February, with strong growth and solid profitability. Revenue for the year rose by 48% across all geographies with the UK up by 37% and international by 64%. Trading in the first few weeks of the financial year has been encouraging and Group revenue growth for the full financial year is expected to be between 25% to 30%
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Ian Pollard: Smith & Nephew Impacted By Weak First Quarter
Smith & Nephew SN has produced a mixed performance for the quarter to the 31st March with revenue rising by 5% including currency benefits of 5%. Softer markets and a slowdown in Bioactives were offset by stronger growth in emerging markets which showed a rise of 15% on a reported basis. The trend is expected to improve over the remainder of the year but full year guidance has been impacted by the effects of the weak first quarter and underlying revenue growth is expected to be in the range of 2-3%
Centamin CEY A rise of 23% in first quarter revenue led to a surge of 122% in profit before tax for the quarter compared to a year ago although compared to the previous quarter there was a fall of 17%. Gold sales rose 14% year on year and the results were also helped by a 9% rise in the average price of gold over the year.
James Fisher & Sons plc FSJ Trading for the year so far has been in line with management expectations and offshore oil has been showing signs of recovery. All four divisions appear well set and the outlook for the year is positive.
Johnson Service Group JSG expects full year results will be slightly ahead of current market expectations. Following the substantial growth seen in 2017, trading in the year to date has continued to be strong.
Wizz Air Holdings WIZZ April passenger numbers rose by19% and the load factor for April rose to 90.9%. Six new routes were opened and operations were commenced at 2 additional airports. Three brand new Airbus A 320s were added to the fleet bringing it to a total of 96 aircraft. Wizz has also been named European Airline of the year.
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Ian Pollard – Dairy Crest Well Ahead
Dairy Crest Group DCG Total revenue for the nine months to he 31st December is well ahead of the previous year as key brands produced a strong performance with revenue growth of 7%. Spreads continued to gain market share.
Wizz Air Holdings WIZZ Revenue for the quarter to the 31st December rose by 24% and passenger numbers were up by 24.3% to 7.1m. Profit rose 3.6% to record levels but profit before tax was down by 56%. The fleet increased to 88 aircraft during the quarter. The airline is now the leading low cost airline in Central and Eastern Europe and opened its 145th destination at Athens.
3i Infrastructure 3IN The Board is delighted with the performance over the 3 months to the 31st December as exceptional value was generated for shareholders. Net Asset Value is expected to have increased by 15% to 199p per share, helped by the sale of of investments in two companies which brought in gross proceeds of over £1 billion. In addition the portfolio is delivering strong income and the target dividend of 7.85p per share for the full year is expected to be fully covered.
Centamin CEY saw profit before tax decline by 16% for the year to the end of December whilst earning per share fell by 49% and EBITDA by 13%. A fall in gold sales, a drop of 2% in revenue, increased costs and the impact of the first full year of profit share all contributed to the problems but a finl divi of 10 US cents per share is to be proposed.
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Centamin Production At Record Levels
Centamin CEY With all sections of its Sukari mine producing, gold production for the quarter ending on the 30th September rose to record levels with a 26% increase over the second quarter and a 5% increase over the third quarter of 2016. Production guidance of 540,000 ounces for 2017 is maintained.
YouGov plc YOU has for the third year in succession, delivered growth which is “significantly above the market both in revenue and profit”, resulting in a recommendation that the final dividend be increased to 2p, a rise of 43%. Revenue for the year to 31st July rose by 21% and statutory profit before tax and earnings per share by 43% and 35% respectively. Growth is expected to continue in the current year.
Angling Direct ANG Gross profit for the half year to the 31st July grew by 35.3% and EBITDA by 72.6% to 0.93m. Online sales surged by 67% whilst store sales showed an increase of 38%, both of which will be suitably augmented by the acquisition of Fosters of Birmingham, announced on the 2nd October and new store openings since admission to AIM which it describes as a “strong pipeline”.
Plant Impact PIM A rise of 17% in revenue for the year to 31st July was due mainly to the strength of the dollar, without which it would have been a much more modest 2%. Gross profit for the year saw a rise of 19% and the company claims that it has an excellent set of commercial and R&D prospects ahead which will help in its aim to establish itself as leader in what ir describes this new category of “agricultural inputs” sic.whatever one of those may be.
CAP-XX Limited CAP-XX claims it is pleased to announce a drop in sales for the year to 30th June from A$5 m. to A$4.1m. and a near doubling in the EBITDA loss from A$0.7m. to A$1.2m. As against that it should be and is more than pleased to see royalty revenue more than tripling from A$0.2m to A$0.7m and operating expenses falling by A$0.5m. The CEO says it has been an exciting year which saw “tangible traction” which is presumably a good thing to see.
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NEXT- Another Special Dividend As Decline Continues
NEXT plc NXT does not expect any recovery during the remainder of the current financial year despite second quarter full price sales having risen by 0.7% compared to the first quarter when they were down 3%. Retail sales for the half year to 29th July were down by 7.4% whereas Directory sales rose by 11.4% but shareholders are being kept happy with another 45p per share special dividend to be paid on the 1st November. . The forecast for the full year to January 2018 is that the decline in profit before tax will remain unchanged from previous guidance at between -13.9% to -6.4%. The problem seems to be half year and end of year sales which act as a drag on the total sales performance.
Aviva plc AV is increasing its interim dividend by 13% after the fourth consecutive year of growth in half year operating profit, this time by 11%. Sales have increased across the group with strong growth in Europe and the UK.
Centamin CEY Gold production in the second quarter rose by 14% over the first half but is still down on last year and whilst profit before tax rose from the first quarters level, for the half year as a whole it is only just over half of last years figure, at $38m. Production costs at US$609 per oz were also well up on last years figure of US$461. Nonetheless the interim dividend is increased by 25% to 2.5 US cents per share and the second half is expected to be strong with full year production guidance of 540 oz. being maintained.
Portmeirion Group PMP produced an 18% rise in profit before tax for the half year to the 30th June and gives itself a very restrained pat on the back, describing its performance as “positive”. Revenue rose by 16%, EBITDA by27% and earnings per share by 21%. The interim dividend is to be increased by 5.7%.
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Amerisur Moves Towards Profitable Production
Amerisur Resources AMER Produced a slightly increased loss after tax at $28.5m in the year to the end of December, following lower oil prices, planned reduction in production and a one off impairment charge of $15.3m. from its investment in Paraguy. Since the year end global oil prices have increased, transport costs have fallen and there has been a significant increase in production from the Platanillo field which is now producing over 4,000 barrels of oil per day and continuing to rise towards its 2017 target of 6 to 7,000 bopd. The company sees a strong outlook for 2017, with production becoming increasingly profitable.
The shares have lost over two thirds of their value since August 2014, falling from 66p to a low of 20p. There has recently been something of a recovery with the price now at 22.17. Whether that will hold on the basis of future promises, rather than on 2016’s past performance remains to be seen.
CEY Centamin First quarter gold production fell, as forecast, at 109,187 ounces, down 20% on the previous quarter and 13% on 2016 Q1. The full year target for 2017 of 540,000 oz. is still expected to be
met.
Plant Health Care PHC US Sales disappointed in the year to the end of December, due to distributors having excess year end inventories. Outside the US sales rose by 15% on a constant currency basis, showing strong progress its key strategic objectives.
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Buy Centamin (CEY) – VectorVest sees a compelling fundamental and technical investment proposition
Centamin plc (CEY.L) is a mineral exploration, development and mining company, and operates in Australia, Jersey, Egypt, Burkina Faso and Cote d’Ivoire. Its principal asset, the Sukari Gold Mine (SGM), is located in the Eastern Desert, approximately 900 kilometers from Cairo and 25 kilometers from the Red Sea. SGM is jointly owned by Pharaoh Gold Mines NL (PGM) and Egyptian Mineral Resource Authority (EMRA). It has a license holding over an area of approximately 100-kilometer trend of gold mineralization in Burkina Faso. CEY holds a tenement package over an approximately 2,200 square kilometer area in southern Burkina Faso, adjacent to the border with Cote d’Ivoire. It has seven permits in Cote d’Ivoire covering an area of over 2,330 square kilometers. Six of these are part of the Doropo Project across the border from Batie West in Burkina Faso and the other is in the west of the country.
On Feb 1st 2017, CEY published results for year ending Dec 31st 2016. Gold production of 551,036 ounces marked a 26% increase on 2015 and was above the revised guidance range, while the cash cost of production of $513 per ounce was down from $713 per ounce in 2015 and below the revised guidance range. EBITDA grew by 145% to $373m, due to higher gold prices, increased production and lower costs. As a result, basic earnings per share grew by 313% to 18.61 US cents. Chairman Josef El-Raghy said that the seventh successive year of production growth and reductions “has allowed Centamin to maintain its strategic focus on generating shareholder returns and value-accretive growth.” “A significant milestone was achieved during the year, as the capital investment in the Sukari operation by Centamin’s wholly-owned subsidiary Pharaoh Gold Mines was recovered from cash flows to the extent that profit share commenced with the Egyptian Government during Q3. Centamin ended the year with $428m in cash, bullion on hand, gold sales receivables and available-for-sale financial assets, an increase of $197m during the year. “ He added; “I am pleased to announce that a final dividend for 2016 of 13.5 US cents per share has been proposed, representing a full year pay-out of $178m, equivalent to approximately 70% of our net free cash flow in 2016.”
While CEY has long been a favourite stock among gold investors, the latent potential among the company projects, and the flagship Sukari gold mine have resulted in the stock consistently flagging up value across VectorVest financial metrics. The stock scores highly on GRT (Earnings Growth Rate), RT (Relative Timing) and RV (Relative Value), and shows a fair rating on RS (Relative Safety) and DS (Dividend Safety). The key metrics of VST, the master indicator for ranking every stock in the VectorVest database, sees CEY score 1.37, which is very good on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. And in terms of value, CEY scores 267.23p, meaning at the current 173p, the stock is undervalued.
The chart of CEY.L is shown below using the normal VectorVest notation. The price is in candlestick format while the VectorVest valuation is shown by the green line study. Earnings per share (EPS) is shown in the window below the price by the blue line study. EPS has more than doubled over the last year.
While the gold price has been falling over the past few days CEY has risen. The share has broken and kissed a down sloping trendline and is in the process of breaking out of an inverted head and shoulders reversal. The head and shoulders break out will be confirmed by a close above 180p.
The technical target from such a move would be a repeat of the upmove that occurred from January to September 2016. This would compute a technical target of around 250 which is similar to the present VectorVest valuation.
There is risk in mining stocks and the opportunity is for those who can size positions correctly and manage risk aggressively.
Summary: Current global uncertainties should ensure that gold remains a popular safe haven asset for the foreseeable future, and this will no doubt be reflected in investor demand for shares of cornerstone producers such as Centamin. The high score CEY delivers across key VectorVest metrics, coupled with a promising charting configuration add up to a compelling investment case for this long established gold miner. Buy.
March 15th 2017
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Centamin Sees Strong Growth
Centamin CEY Profit before tax for the year to the end of December grew strongly from $58,407,000 to $266,829,000, as 2016 became the 7th consecutive year of production growth. Profit sharing with the Egyptian government started in quarter 3 and a final dividend of 13.6 US cents is proposed. Production rose by 26% whilst production costs fell sharply from $713 per oz. to $513 per oz. EBITDA rose by 145% and basic earnings per share by 313%. Centamin is debt free and ends the year with $428 of free assets.
TalkTalkTelecom TALK The new fixed low price plans introduced in October have proved a success and have delivered lower churn and positive net adds, which have continued so far, into quarter 4. Early life churn rates have fallen to less than half historic rates. There has however been a short term impact on group revenue, corporate and off net and on net adds all of which fell. Excuse the jargon. it is theirs not mine. Mobile, fibre and ethernet all rose and there was strong growth in third quarter EBITDA.
A.G. Barr BAG 2016 was a challenging year for the UK soft drinks market and 2017 and no improvement is expected for 2017 which is expected to be another year of uncertain economic conditions. Like for like revenue for the year to 28th January is expected to have risen by 1.5%. The successful introduction of new products and tight cost control helped to stave off the years challenges and it is anticipated that profit expectations for the year will be met.
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