Home » Posts tagged 'Cadia'
Tag Archives: Cadia
The Real Game of Copper – Wayne McCrae
by Wayne McCraeIt seems everyone has an opinion on copper, whether the price or the forecast production or its longevity in danger? Well, this is in-depth research on everything to do with copper and at the end of reading, you can make up your own mind, as to where copper is going and the fortunes to be won and lost, whether a copper producer, broker, trader, buyer, end user, copper consumer, recycler or just an inquisitive onlooker.
Image courtesy of Kitcogold
I’m going to give a bit of the ending away, at the start of this research paper. The United States metals forecaster for mineral reserves and resources USGS (United States Geological Survey) have forecast the end of reserves of copper in the ground to be mined within the next 80 years. (including new discoveries) Click in the brain, “what about renewables”. Read on and you can make your own mind up, because your mind is probably as good as anyone else, in making a prediction. Remember nothing is infinite.
The rise & fall, & the rise &rise & rise of the red metal
Historical Prices of Copper
Year Price $US per pound/lb(average)
1990 $1.04
1995 $1.326
1998 $0.75
1999 $0.72
2002 $0.72
2004 $1.28
2005 $1.62
2006 $3.00
2009 $2.37
2010 $3.43
2011 $4.00
2015 $2.49
2017 $2.81
2020 $2.80
2021 $4.24
2023 $3.81
2024 June $4.67
Ok, so how can anyone predict the future of copper other than there will be no more within 80 years. Copper was trading at $US0.72 lb US$1586 per tonne in 2002) only 22 years ago. Price per pound/lb, used for copper is 2,204 lbs = one tonne. The price of copper has skyrocketed over 400% from 2002-2006.
Compare Gold: In 2001 $US271 ounce. Today $US2,348 ounce is 866%.
Copper consumption in 2002 declined due to falling consumption, falling 200,000 metric tonnes in 2002, via weak demand and the increase in stockpiles. In 2002, Comex and LME warehoused over 1.27m tonnes of copper. Then came the China Manufacturing dominance revolution, becoming the largest consumer of copper, topping the United States. That change, in the world order of supply and demand, was the key element in the events that would follow.
By the fourth quarter of 2003 copper inventories held in exchange warehouses, had fallen by 575,000 tonnes or 45% from the peak, with the price of copper closing above $US 1.00 lb level. Then in 2004, the speculative community, including major hedge funds, bought massive quantities of copper. The big push was enough to push the price curve, from a gradually rising curve to a far more vertical path, that was fed by consumption & increased higher prices. “The fix was on”.
HOW MUCH COPPER IS PRODUCED NOW AND WHAT ARE THE FORECASTS
First let me say that forecasts for copper prices in the future may vary depending on who you listen to, but they are all, within a forecast based acceptable range, accepted by the market.
Ok, we also know that forecasts by unscrupulous forecasters are for deceiving and manipulating the general market. When there is a forecast of any metal downward, it is usually the work of these deceivers. Everyone has a game to play in the market, remember that. “You never tell your wife you have a mistress”.
Copper is the major player in the minerals game, (lithium, is just a bubble) all, experienced players with common sense, know that, with copper right now, without doubt, the is most important mineral in the world for the survival of mankind.
The question is, therefore, WHY IS A POUND OF COPPER WORTH THE SAME PRICE AS A LATTE COFFEE. Why is copper only worth $US 0.29c ounce. Twenty Nine Cents per ounce, is all Copper is selling for as 99.99% copper metal today. To go mining copper, after the initial discovery, proved viable to mine and feasibility study to guarantee anannual copper production of 200,000 tonnes of copper metal, you will need, “example,” a reserve of approx. 22 million tonnes of ore at a grade of 1% Copper. (allowing 90% recovery of the copper after processing) You will also need to build a processing plant capable of a throughput of 2 million tonnes of ore per annum. So what does that tell you? It tells you that copper mining, in the future, is going to be “unsustainable” at its current price. Copper price has nowhere else to go but UP. Remember the biggest consumer of copper is China and the LME (London Metal Exchange) that sets the metals price on a daily basis is the owner of the LME, (Hong Kong Stock Exchange – CHINA) purchased in 2012 for $US2.2Billion, this is what I call a very wise investment. Good on them for having the foresight. Just when you thought the wise guys, the “big players” in the metals game, Glencore, BHP and their ilk are smart. Well now you know, how smart they really are. Total Dumb arses in reality. Too busy with the head in their chosen “lifestyle companies”. That’s the reality.
COPPER PRICE IS NOT HIGH – IT’S JUST HIGHER THAN IT WAS BEFORE. COPPER IS $US0.29c ounce.
You read correctly “twenty nine cents per ounce”
The annual global production of copper is rising beyond forecasts. After a 1% growth in 2022, copper surged in 2023 by 4.8% globally, reaching annually 22.6million tonnes.
This massive jump in production was attributed to the surge in copper mining in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Peru and Chile, who continued the growth all through to now.
The forecast in late 2023, was for global production of copper to be maintained, at a compound annual growth rate of 2.5% required due to the demand from China.
The forecast on 6th November 2023 by CAGA (Copper Mining Industry Analysis) Reserves/production was for global production to be maintained at a growth rate of 2.5%p.a. forecasting an annual production rate of 27.2 million tonnes of copper through to 2030.
Copper now upgraded to a critical mineral status
The big problem now for copper is ensuring supply after the copper concentrates (in a powder form or as a sheet of copper metal cathode, depending which process was used) have been sent for smelting and refining. This next process, once the concentrates have arrived at the smelter is for treating the copper in a furnace into a blister copper (block of copper) There is a cost for this expensive next step, treatment and the refining of the copper, called TC/RC (Treatment cost and Refining cost). With China now controlling 60% of the global supply of worldwide critical minerals, it is becoming a concern from Western countries. The choice that mining companies have to make when they send their concentrates for converting to a refined metal is the price that the two dominant countries, refiners charge for the TC/RC. It’s become a competition between China and Japan. China now accounts for 40% of all refining of copper and is expected to increase to 50% by 2030.
In September 2023 the treatment charge (TC), for converting copper concentrate powder to copper by melting only, was $US80 per tonne. ($80 tonne is the weight of the concentrate, not the metal, therefore, the higher the grade of the concentrate the cheaper the TC).
By October 2023 the treatment charge had dropped to $US60 per tonne and by January 2024 the “Chinese Smelters Purchase Team” (CSPT) guidance for Treatment Charge of $US80 tonne and refining charge of $US0.08c lb. (there are 2204 lbs in a tonne so the cost for refining is actually $US176 per tonne) Then the CSPT forecast a further drop in guidance for 1st quarter of 2024 to TC of $US50 tonne and RC of $$US0.05clb.
Copper traders, that deal in copper concentrates are generally interested in dealing with the smelter that offers the lowest smelting (treatment & refining costs TC/RC), but the smelters also provide timely capacity, not long lead times.
China is winning the majority of the concentrates/treatment battles. Even though there is a lot of energy consumed in the treatment/smelting of copper, the Chinese are prepared to offer the lowest price, but are able to recover that money back by increasing the price of the refined 99.99% copper. It is the old 3 card trick. The Japanese haven’t worked that out yet. Because China owns the LME 100% and sets the market daily copper price, LME can control the price of copper. Japanese in mid-2023 tried to steal the march on China by reducing the treatment charge per tonne of copper to $US45 tonne and the refining to $0.46c per tonne. But found the energy costs become unsustainable.
The Japanese set the treatment and refining (TC/RC) charge for all of 2024 at $US 42.50 per tonne treatment/smelting and refining charge at $0.425c to $0.45c (per lb). The Chinese responded at the time by lowering the global lowest ever treatment charge temporarily to $US40. The current Chinese price is now set at $60 and have previous set contracts in place prior to the price drop of $US80 per tonne, for treatment charge. So that means the Chinese smelters are getting most of the copper concentrates from the miners and metal traders, again taking control of the copper market.
Australian Copper Smelters.
Everything and anything, to do with mining and processing of metals in Australia, the industry is handcuffed by ridiculous and unsustainable Environmental (EPA) rules that prevent the industry from value adding. Queensland and Victoria are the worst states in Australia, with unrealistic EPA legislation, that force most metal adding values overseas. Queensland is one state to avoid under any circumstances for mining or processing until a change in Government. Royalties in most states are 5% some minerals in Queensland are 45%. That’s 45% of the selling price, “not the profit”. A 45% State Royalty can be the equal of 90% of the miner’s profit. The Queensland Government is handing out $A3 billion worth of election promises, and cash and the mining industry is pay for it.
The only 2 copper smelters in Australia are in Townsville built in the Bjelke Petersen days and BHP in South Australia.
The Townsville smelter is owned by Glencore that smelts around 300,000 tonnes of copper and refines the copper to 99.95%. The second smelter is the Olympic Dam smelter owned by BHP that smelters and refines around 200,000 tonnes of copper annually. BHP is assessing the options to increase to 500,000 tonnes annually. With the current price of energy in Australia it makes sense at the current “war TC/RC prices” and global competition to assess whether it is cheaper to be processed in China, Japan or other countries, probably at less than a 1/3rd of the energy cost in Australia.
These two smelters will more than likely close before 2030as the renewable energy plan will not provide anywhere enough power for these massive energy consumers. Just one of a dozen industries that will leave our shores if this madness of electrification using renewables continues.
Five biggest global producers of copper
Chile: 5 million tonnes, Democratic Republic Congo 2.5 tonnes, Peru: 2,6 million tonnes, China: 1.7million tonnes and the United States 1,1 million tonnes. Where is the Democratic Republic of Congo? if that is part of the 5 to be referenced.
HOW MUCH COPPER IS LEFT IN THE GROUND ON PLANET EARTH?
Copper is a metal, present in the earth’s crust and mined via open cut mining or by a deep underground method, but as the earth is warming so is the temperature deep underground, which will limit the access to deep underground resources. The deeper mines now require massive air conditioners dotted all over their mining leases, to try to cool the temperature underground. The costs to produce this cold air and the massive increase in costs associated with mining are reasons, the “once big money-making mines” like Mt Isa Mines will cease underground mining in late 2024. For years Mt Isa Mines have been remote mining, with machinery being operated via CCTV and remote controls 200 metres above the workings. It is far too expensive to mine at these depths, considering the low “price of copper” compared with the costs to mine it. Copper price is low, just because its high than before does not make it high. Copper should be trading in the same price sphere as Nickel.
What is Resource and what is Reserve?
Resource of copper means it is the quantity of copper you have delineated by exploration and drilling to whatever depth you choose to drill. The deeper you drill and intersect copper ore, the larger the resource. But it may not always be viable to mine. Reserve means the tonnes of copper bearing ore, of high enough copper grade at a depth, that can be viably mined over a certain set period? So, a resource may read; Measured, indicated and inferred: 10 million tonnes.
However, the Reserve may only 4 million tonnes: which means: only 4 million tonnes of ore, is of a copper grade high enough to be mined viably at that time and within the timeframe/period, from start to completion of mining of the “reserve tonnes and ore grade.” The decision to mine is based on the feasibility of the project and determined by a feasibility study to determine whether it is viable and profitable.
The balance of the resource ie: difference between Resource and Reserve, will stay in the ground, until it becomes viable to mine. The balance of copper left in the ground (more than likely forever) will only ever be mined, when and if the copper price becomes enough and the cost of mining and processing to less than the value of the metal.
GLOBAL ESTIMATES IN RESOURCES AND RESERVES
The amount of copper left unmined globally is estimated: Resources: 5,000 million tonnes. (5 billion tonnes USGS 2020). The resources of copper estimated by USGC on 20th March 2024, are expected to increase with organic exploration with the resources expected to exceed 5 x Billion tonnes.
The Big: HOWEVER, HOWEVER, HOWEVER, the Current Copper Reserves are estimated at only 870,000,000 tonnes. Without new discoveries the life of copper to me mined before it becomes as extinct as the Tasmanian Devil, (USGC) is 40 years and only if new discoveries, match the previous discoveries, with the rate of consumption the maximum time for copper to be depleted is maximum 80 years. Ie: the year 2304. What is the point of electrification using renewable energy and spending globally $US9.2 trillion? No copper for electronics or Electric vehicles. Back to the future with combustion engines. Like cutting off your arm to cut your fingernail. Just one big expensive circle of expense, heartache, headache, anxiety, stress etc for the next 40 years when there doesn’t need to be. All renewables, wind and solar, need to be replaced every 15-25 years and the battery farms every 10 years. $S9.2 trillion worth of renewables replaced every time their life expires. Also find a dumping ground for the $US9.2 trillion of waste they create.
COPPER DEMAND AND PRODUCTION
The annual demand for copper metal at present is 28 million metric tonnes per year.
The current annual production of copper at present is 22 million metric tonnes as at 4th June 2024 with a price of $US 4.55lb
Total production of copper double space removed in 2010 was 16 million metric tonnes per year. $US3.43lb
AUSTRALIA’S LARGEST 5 COPPER PRODUCERS
Australia Globally, 7th Largest producer of Copper representing 4% of global production.
Olympic Dam: 212,000 tonnes copper 2023, (BHP)
Cadia: 105,000 tonnes copper 2023 (Newmont)
Mt Isa Copper: 71,000 tonnes copper 2023 (Glencore)
Carpenteena: 60,230 tonnes copper in 2023. (BHP)
Prominent Hill: 55,530 tonnes copper 2023 (BHP)
In addition to the big boys, there are more than 20 medium to large Copper producers in Australia, with multiple small hopefuls.
The major problem with developing new mines in Australia is a lack of suitable people. Experienced people & cash. Geologists, metallurgists, mining engineers, drillers, administrators, directors, earthmoving contractors, underground miners, etc. are the biggest inhibitor and challenge of mining companies in Australia. There is no shortage of copper deposits left unexplored in the biggest copper province in Australia, Queensland Copper fields, but the current Queensland Government is anti-mining. For all mineral explorers, this is an unfortunate situation and has set the brakes on the exploration and development of mines, production, particularly copper. The brakes will be released if a change of Government and the Environmental Protection Agency and QLD Mines Department undertake a complete re-formation.
The Renewable Energy, Electric Vehicle and Electrification Revolution. Where are we going?
To be honest, I don’t know where to start when it comes to this question. What I will say is being 76 years old this December, has put a lot of real life experiences under my belt, from being a copper and Gold miner from the mid 70’s, experiencing the metal prices when I started mining copper in Cloncurry as a gouger at $US0.60c per lb. Mining in the middle of nowhere and limited to only 1,000 tonnes per month and then, to be transported to Mt Isa for processing and giving Mt Isa Mines 2% copper off the top and 2 grams of Gold, for processing and 5% royalties. At that time wages were $6 per hour for employees. I have been through the ages of mining Copper & Gold and believe I am an accurate predictor of what will happen in the future. The more it changes the more it stays the same.
Here we go: The fear of “Global warming bubble” has sent shockwaves through the world of activism, naïve politicians, opportunists, hedge fund opportunities, greedy manufacturers of renewables, installation contractors, liars and marketeers and lobbyists. Can it survive, is it sustainable, has any Australian politician thought through the ramifications, has anybody attempted to educate and explain to the Australian citizens, of the shortfalls and future problems, of electrification using renewables? The ANSWER TO ALL OF THE ABOVE IS NO, NO, NO. The big question is how do we stop the destruction revolution of “an expensive exercise in futility”.
First let’s look at what renewables are: Renewables are the product of imagination, that can manufacture electricity without using any other energy, for the power required to drive a generator, (with the exception of solar) apart from what nature delivers, ie: wind and water and sunlight (solar)
So what that does that mean:
- Means, that if the sun is shining, on any given day, or there is cloud cover, or its at nighttime, the solar panel will not make electricity. Zero, Zilch.
- No power, If the wind is not blowing above 8 km/hr or above 55 km/hr,the wind turbine will not generate electricity.
- If there is a drought and the weather patterns change so there is no water or melting snow to provide water to the hydro-electric power generators, there is no electricity.
So, I’m sure everyone gets the above, it’s not rocket science. Renewables cannot provide 24/7/365 base load power. In other words, there will be times when there will be no power to drive anything electric. No electric vehicles, no lifts in hi rise or office buildings, no ATMS, no internet, absolutely “NO NOTHIN’ NO phone charges, no TV, no air conditioners, no kettles, no electric stoves, so anything you must plug in won’t work. No lights to find the switch even to check. This is what we call reality. It’s a “GIVEN”
What a lot of people don’t know is that renewables must transfer their electricity to a battery farm that stores the electricity. (the cost is more than the renewable solar and wind farms) Unless it has a 1 x gigawatt size solar or wind farm capacity it cannot supply power directly into the grid. However, in some rare cases, 1 x gigawatt scale solar farms may be directly connected to the power grid without the need for storage in battery farms during rare power consumption times only. The surplus energy generated during peak hours can be fed directly into the grid. Battery farms of 1 x gigawatt scale are massive in size and with lithium being so volatile, a major accident is waiting to happen. The decision to include storage batteries into a solar 1 x gigawatt setup should also be considered along with the costs for maintenance, lifespan and efficiency and evaluated to determine whether the benefits of the energy storage outweigh the costs.
It is difficult getting prices for the cost of battery farms, because it is so expensive that none of the suppliers want to disclose the price because it will likely kill the whole electrification industry with the costs being made public. Everything to do with costings is top secret.
I have searched everywhere to find a price for a new 1 x gigawatt lithium-ion battery farm. The closest I can get to a genuine costing is for the Hornsdale Power Reserve Facility in South Australia that is a 185-Megawatt Battery farm supplied by Tesla at a final cost of installation at $200m. A second battery farm, a 250mw (1/4 of a gigawatt battery farm) is currently being built at the site of the Swanbank power station in Queensland. It is being built to replace power at former the Swanbank gas fired power station, at a public released cost of $A330m. The life of these lithium-ion battery farms is 10 years. No one has been told what happens to them for site rehabilitation and destruction of the batteries after their life expires. I think the reason the public are not informed that the $330,000,000 battery farm needs to be replaced every 10 years is that no one wants to explain what happens to them after the 10 year expiry date. All the current Labor politicians in Queensland will be long gone by the time that battery farms expire and cometo an end. So they just shut up. It will only open a pandoras box if they give truthful details.
Cost of infrastructure to integrate the battery farms, solar and wind farms.
What are the costs to integrate the solar farms and the wind power farms into the national grid? The last cost estimates for integration infrastructure in 2017 (so you can multiply that by a factor of 3) was $A500,000,000 (half a trillion dollars) with the inflationary pressures on now forecasting $1.5Trillion. The cost to shut down all the coal fired power stations, was forecast by the AEMO at $A320 billion. TO BE HONEST JUST ABOUT EVERY REPORT ON THE COSTS OF RENEWABLE AND TRANSISTIONING TO ELECTRIFICATION AND INTEGRATING INTO THE NATIONAL GRID DIFFER ON THE COST. NO ONE HAS A CLUE. Some say $300 billion others $500 billion, others $1.5 trillion.
The “global cost estimated” for transition to renewables by McKinsey Global Institute estimate at $US9.2 trillion. The estimate increased $US3.5 trillion from 2022 to 2024. The costs literally increase monthly. It’s like a giant NBN Fupup, started at $19B now at $57Billion and still spending and already out of date technology. The politicians have no clue. Its just a pot of Gold for the renewable industry, the lobbyists, the manufacturers, the installers and the power generation companies, and the companies that get to dispose of them after their lifetime. There are zero checks and balances, just pay. Our Minister for Climate change overseeing the renewables electrification transition, is just not on the same planet for what’s really happening. He’s just “winging it” and hopes to be “booted out of office” before we start to get towards the pointy end. The only losers of this unnecessary madness are the hard-working taxpayers of Australia watching their taxes being pssssd up against a wall by naïve uneducated, inexperienced fools we politely call POLITICIANS.
The cost to transition to 100% Renewables
The latest study from the energy sector and low carbon technologies for the cost of transitioning to 100% renewables will cost approximately $A1.5 trillion. This is the cost now, assuming a timeframe from 2022-2050. We already know after watching the NBN blow out from $19B to $57B and if this current fool is still calling the shots, we can only imagine where the real numbers will finish. Its not the governments money, its ours, so why do they care, they don’t. What they don’t mention in any of the reports is the inclusion of cost all of the renewable energy farms requiring being replaced every 15-25 years, and the battery farms every 10 years. This point will add a multiplication factor of 3 to any costs now, not including the inflation factor. There have been no costs added for rehabilitation of the sites and demolition of the farms or the areas required for dumping of all of the infrastructure (old wind turbine blades and solar panels) and batteries, which will require hundreds of square kilometers of dumping areas. There has been no cost for the re-tree clearing, deforestation of the trees that have grown to maturity, during the period of operation for the wind farms. Basically, the only costs being used are for the once-only setup, hoping that no one will ask the hard questions. None of which, that a politician on either side of parliament could answer, certainly not within the current labor government.
Future of Electric Vehicles
The future of electric vehicles, once I investigated the murky side of this industry, is that it seems there was an opportunity for big car makers to knowingly jump into this market. But at the same time, knowingly that it was not sustainable, but that the dollars involved outweighed that potential loss factor. It’s always about the “show me the money”. Let’s just study the most prominent manufacturer of EV’s, namely Tesla S. For the family car market, the company has made the Tesla model S. This model comprises aluminum, plastic and copper and in some cases the use of some stainless steel sheeting. So where does copper play a role in EV’s? A Tesla model S contains 82 kilograms of copper, 190 kilograms of aluminum, 544 kilograms for the battery and 217 kilograms of plastic. The Tesla model S has a sub frame of aluminum with 50% of the volume of the car and 10% of the weight being plastic. Plastic as we know it now, is made from oil (fossil fuel). A little hypocrisy? But to the academics, the radicals, the demonstrators and the climate change activists this is just overlooked to an end. I will say I have used Tesla in the illustration because it will probably be the only one standing by the year 2030. Tesla is a class act and the rest are just “wanna be” clones.
How much electricity is required to charge electric vehicle
in Australia if we go 100% zero emissions. Answer: An extra 1.2 Gigawatts.
Australia’s current power grid can support up to 5% and up to 10% penetration of EV’s based upon uncontrolled charging. Meaning you can charge your car anytime you want. The general rule for the power required to charge an EV at home is a usage of 7,200 watts of power space. An EV uses around 17kWh of power per 100kms. The cost per kWh of power to charge in Australia is between $0.25-$0.35c per kWh depending on the deal you have with the provider. So, the cost would be somewhere between $A4.25 and $5.95 per 100 kms. As of December 2017, there was 4,455,000 megawatts of power installed capacity in Australia (4.455 Gigawatts) If Australia was to achieve its targets of zero emissions by 2030 there would need to be an extra 1.2 gigawatts of electricity installed to the national grid, just for EV’s. That’s how much power draw there would be.
Battery Farms and general battery storage counted in 2023 was a total of 5,966 MWh (megawatt hours. (April 2024) CONFUSED? It is important not to get mixed up with the total “installed power” in Gigawatts (GW) (generators/wind turbine/solar etc) Then there is GWh (Gigawatt hours) means: the total hours of electricity that can be generated, produced, from the installed power generators in Gigawatts (power source-generators/wind turbine etc) of power (the power supplier). For example: Australia has 5.966 Gigawatts of installed power generators and produced in 2022 a total of 273,265 gigawatts of electricity. Example: Like having a little 5kVa portable generator at home but producing 1,000 kwh of electricity in a year.
What is the cost just to increase the national grid by 1.2Gw just for power for EV’s
Australia would need to increase its electricity supply by 15-20% if we were to go all electric vehicles. I would suggest that it would be double that, but these are the reported forecasts we have on hand. Because so much money is being made from the transition from coal/gas to renewables, it seems that everyone is fudging the figures to make it look tenable, cost saving and sustainable, when it has no hope of ever doing that.
The problem is there is no one overseeing the transition. It’s just a free for all and Australian taxpayers are just paying the invoices streaming into the government letterbox with please pay within 7 days.
This is the $$$$ cost of increasing our “current installed power supplies” by 15-20% to sustain EV’s 100%.
This would require at this moment an increase of 1.20 Gigawatts of newly installed power generation as previously mentioned. This cost if it was to be done today would be, using the actual reported costs of Battery farms either already installed Horsndale in South Australia, or one currently being installed at the old Swanbank Gas power station in Queensland.
Below are the costs for either Wind Turbines or Solar Panels to provide the extra power needed just for EV’s if Australia goes zero emissions:
Wind Turbines:
Cost for adding 1.2 Gw: $2,400,000,000 ($A2.4B)
Battery Farm: $1,470,000,000 ($A1.47B)
Total: $3,870,000,000($A3.87B)
Solar Panels:
Cost to add 1.2 Gw: $1.800,000,000 ($A1.8B)
Battery Farm: $1,470,000,000 ($A1.47B)
Total: $3,170,000,000 (A$3.17B)
Using the latest installation costs for the new battery farm, Swanbank in Queensland, $A350,000,000 for 250Mw (one quarter of a gigawatt) would cost today $A1,470,000,000 for the battery farm alone. This is just to increase the battery farms to handle the EV’s if we go all electric.
Explanation: the latest cost to build 1.20 gigawatts, needed to accommodate all cars in Australia going Electric. I have used the costs to build the 250mw ($350,000,000 for 250Mw) Swanbank battery farm in Queensland. Currently in construction. It costs $1.47B to add 1 x gigawatt of power, these are today’s current numbers.
South Australia: cost for the 185 Mw battery farm in 2018 was $A200,000,000.
Queensland: cost for the 250 Mw is $A350,000,000 currently under construction based on firm costing. All my costings are from Government projects either completed or in progress.
The cost for the renewables to supply the power to the battery farms:
Solar Panels (Photovoltaic panels)
1 x Gigawatt of solar panels (Photovoltaic (PV) panels is: $A1.5 billion installed today and add 20% on top of the current installed supplying the cost is $1.5 billion x 1.2Gw, total becomes ($3.170 billion).
Wind Turbines on land
The cost for installing the capacity to generate 1.2 gigawatts using Wind Power is:
Current Costs Wind Turbines
Nordex Sweden’s cost for purchase wind turbines for 2024, just released is $US1.4m or $A2,000,000 per megawatt. So, for 1.2xGigawatt (1,000mw = 1Gw) of power.
Considering there are 1,000Mw = 1x Gigawatt. Therefore, costs for 1.2 Gigawatts = $2,400,000,000 ($2.4 Billion) with battery farm is a total cost, just to add 1.2Gw of power for EV’s, for their batteries to be charged.
Current cost for Solar Farms and Battery Farms for 1.2Gw
Today the cost of a 1.2-Gigawatt Solar farm with Battery Farm will cost:
1 x Gw Solar Panels fully installed: $A3,170,000,000 x 1Gw battery farm, I am being super conservative on these costs. I am not considering the costs, that these battery farms need to be replaced every 10 years or their disposals.
Finally
After, all the upheaval and expenditure of transitioning the world from fossil fuels to 100% zero emissions and pure renewable electrification, there was no research that this was already tried in the late 1800’s and early 1900’s and was dispensed with as “will never work” so we are repeating history of a failure. Australians are just following fools, like a runaway train with no brakes, no captain, no direction and heading to a “no future”. Considering there will be no new copper available due to the end of the global copper supply, this whole exercise is total futility. But seems no one cares. What I have discovered is that its “ALL ABOUT THE MONEY AND NOTHING ELSE”
I suppose it really demonstrates that the politicians of today are only looking at their own survival and not looking into the future of survival of mankind or letting them live the life we have experienced. This transitions to electrification when the source of copper to provide electrification will become so expensive it will not be viable to mine AND in 80 years the entire viable copper RESERVES will be depleted. No more Copper. In Australia the reserves of Coal are for more than 1,000 years.
The more it changes the more it stays the same.
I have read some of the proposals from the current Minister Hon Mr Chris Bowen, the Minister for Climate change and energy, who is leading the charge for electrification. I just wonder where these people come from and how they are ever elected to a position of mass social responsibility and to make decisions. Hell will freeze over before Australia completes 100% of the transitioning to electrification using renewables. It’s simply not achievable. The cost of the copper metal to complete it will not be available within 40-80 years at the latest rate of expansion or maybe 40 years at best. Also, a possibility floated by the USGA. It is totally unsustainable for the reasons I have noted above.
AUSTRALIA, LABOR PARTY ANNOUNCED THE NBN IN THE PRE ELECTON-PROMISE OF 2007. STARTED THE FIRST ROLL OUT OF THE NBN ON 19TH APRIL 2011, 13 YEARS AGO AND STILL NOT CONNECTED TO ALL LOCATIONS WITH THE CURRENT EXPECTATION TO BE 2026. EVEN THOUGH THE NBN ALREADY OBSOLETE TECHNOLOGY THE CONTRACTS ARE ALREADY CAST IN GOLD. ITS CONTINUES. So something like labors 100% renewable/electrification being 500 times greater than this NBN catastrophic, technical and financial failure, together with total naive fools, clowns, at the helm, spells another catastrophic failure with no hope of ever being achieved. Not in 200 years. The Governments 13-year-old NBN cannot even deliver constant internet access speeds to the country. It delivers different maximum internet speeds to different cities and towns.
Can we live without Copper? There was a famous saying: “If it aint broke then don’t try to fix it” There is no credible evidence other than fear, or genuine or honest reason to get “played” by the Pied Piper and follow the rats over the cliff. That’s exactly where we are going.
We are all aware that without copper, we cannot make or conduct electricity. There are other metals, but copper is the greatest conductor of electricity. In a nutshell, electricity is generated by coil windings of copper wire, on an axle, spinning within permanent magnets, currently driven by steam, (generated from burning coal or gas), the spinning copper coils become, a term known as “excited” and produce electricity. We also know that when electricity is generated, it requires copper cables, some unprotected for power lines and some encased in plastic once installed into the building internals, transferring the electricity to industry and domestic users.
Today, planet earth and its 8 billion inhabitants, via use of electronics, or just day to day products, consumes two of the most common commodities in the world. Copper and Plastic. Most products today that use electricity are encased or associated with plastic. Not all but almost all, aluminum and steel and a few other metals are also players, but not in the same “rodeo” as copper& plastic. Here lies a hypocrisy, plastic is made from oil. Oil is a fossil fuel, the very product that produces emissions. But unfortunately, one can’t live without the other. The blades on the wind turbines are made from plastic. (fiberglass immersed in plastic, called epoxy). Solar Panels are also made from plastic (oil), some are also made from silicon (oil) but both made from fossil fuel, called OIL, OIL, OIL.
Almost any product or electronic gadget or clothing (if its not cotton or wool, it’s made from oil) polyethylene, car tyre, nylon, drink bottle, cosmetics, telephones, sunglasses, is all plastic even your thongs are all made from oil, ie: fossil fuels. The world wants to live without it, but the world can’t. It’s like trying to hold back the tide. Look around you. If it’s not wood or metal, it’s plastic. Yes, even the bean bag and the vinyl and the polyester polystyrene is plastic is oil even women’s stockings are made from nylon which is oil. The plastic bottle you are drinking from is made from oil and if the water or the coke is sparking it’s because it’s been injected with carbon. Ring a bell? Carbonated water that makes your drink fizzy is CO2. Makes you wonder what all the fuss is about. So now what do you think about CO2 emissions? You are drinking from a plastic bottle made from oil and its infused with CO2. (carbon dioxide) So funny.
There is no question that Copper is, WITHOUT DOUBT, the most manipulated metal in the world, even more so than Gold. Pricing is by the London Metals Exchange. Who owns that beast?