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Ian Pollard – Bonmarche #BON Rejects Takeover Bid – But Only Asks For Talks
Bonmarche Holdings BON which had seen trading become significantly weaker than expected sine the beginning of March, has rejected a takeover bid from Phillip Day’s Spectre Holdings, on the basis that it undervalues the business and its future prospects. These included a rise in the underlying loss for the year from a possible £4.0m. to between £5.0m. and £6.0m. 2 April, Mr Day, who owns Edinburgh Woollen Mill Group, acquired 26 million Bonmarché shares at 11.445p a share, which brought his stake up to 52.4% and a warning that he expected a “material reduction” in staff. The Bonmarche Board was left with nothing but the expression of a wish to hold discussions, which would be for the benefit of all shareholders, including no doubt, themselves. So far they appear to be unable to find a reason why shareholders would benefit from their continued presence in the governance of the company, especially having regard to its recent continued decline under their stewardship.
Games Workshop Group GAW has today declared a dividend of 35 pence per share, in line with the Company’s policy of distributing truly surplus cash and to be paid on 31 May.This takes the total dividend declared and paid during the year ending 2 June 2019 to £1.55 per share. Trading has continued well since the half year report in January with sales and profits ahead of last year. The Board’s current expectations are that profit before tax for the year to June 2019 will be c. £80 million.
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Plus 500 Ltd PLUS updates that financial markets in the three months to the end of March were extremely subdued and revenue.fell by 65%. New customers were down by 10%. The company that It is impossible to predict market conditions for the rest of the year and conclusions can not be drawn about the full year outcome based on the Group’s first quarter performance.
Mobile Streams plc MOS has had to undergo a comprehensive cost-cutting exercise, in fact so comprehensive that both Non-Executive Directors have had to volunteer a deferral of 50% of their respective remuneration. Sizable one-off redundancy and severance payments have had to be made, to employees, many of whom were of long service. With falling revenue, decisive steps became necessary to allow the company to preserve and protect its remaining cash balances.
National Express NEX has acquired a 60% stake in WeDriveU an employee shuttle company serving many of the world’s largest and fastest growing companies in Silicon Valley and other fast growing US cities.. The deal also includes an Option to acquire the remaining shares in tranches over the next three years.
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Ian Pollard – Polypipe #POLY Breaks More Records
Polypipe Group plc PLP delighted to report another record performance and claims significant strategic progress for 2018 together with a continued focus on organic growth ahead of the market. Revenue rose by 5.2%, profit before tax by 4.7% and underlying basic earnings per share by 4.4% The dividend is to be increased by 4.5% and the balance sheet is robust.
Learning Technologies Group plc LTG Profit came in ahead of expectations for the year to the 31st December, with EBIT up by 104% to £27.2m. Revenue rose by 83% with half of it coming from the US. and the full year dividend is to be increased by 67%. In the five years since the company was listed on the London Stock Exchange a compound annual growth rate of 48% in adjusted diluted EPS has been achieved. A good start has been made to 2019.
EasyJet EZY has abandoned talks to join to join the consortium which would have bid for Alitalia although it said at the time that it was not certain that a bid for Alitalia would materialise. The Italian government has now given Delta Airlines and the Italian State Railway, the two remaining members of the consortium, until the end of this month to come up with a rescue plan for AlItalia.
Softcat plc SCT produced a very strong performance over the six months to the 31st January characterised by additional market share gains and a 36.4% rise for the shareholders, in the interim dividend. Revenue for the half year rose by 21%, diluted earnings per share by 40,8% and gross profit by 26.5% The company is debt free and has a cash balance of £52.8m. It is anticipated that the outcome for the full year will be marginally ahead of previous expectations.
Bonmarche Holdings BON the main aim of Bonmarche during the winter “sale” period covering January and February 2019, was to recover from the third quarter sales experience which was below expectations and in that it has succeeded. Autumn/winter season stock levels are now 40% lower than at this time last year but that has only been achieved at the cost of heavy discounting. And now things have got worse. Trading since the beginning of March has become significantly weaker, reversing sales gains which had been made in the previous months.It is now anticipating that the the underlying loss for the year will be far greater than the anticipated £4.0m. and current estimates are that it will rise to between £5.0m and £6.0m.
ASOS plc ASC for the 3 months to the end of February total retail sales rose by 11%, The UK outperformed with growth of 14% and France and Germany both proved to be challenging. For 2019 unchanged sales growth of 15% is expected.
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Ian Pollard – Vodafone’s #VOD Robust Momentum Produces Large Sales Fall
Vodafone Group plc VOD as expected the third quarter to the 31st December was fairly disastrous for Vodaphone and it can not all be put down to the adoption of IFRS, the sale of Qatar and foreign exchange headwinds which is the usual ready to hand list of pre prepared excuses for major international companies caught between a rock and a hard place. The company claims that the quarter produced robust commercial momentum a statement which appears to be completely contradicted by the figures with revenue in the Rest of the World down by an unacceptably high 11.1% and Europe by 5.6% to give an average drop of 6.8%. Vodafone Business allegedly became a leading : international challenger in fixed, ‘industrialising’ IoT – in fact so leading, according to the Chief Executive, that its revenue fell by 0.5%. This trading performance was what management expected in the third quarter. Organic adjusted EBITDA on an underlying basis is now expected to grow by about 3% for 2019.
Barr AG plc BAG Reports a continued positive trading performance for the year to the 26th January with revenue expected to be up by about.5%. Strong trading and the continued success of its key innovation have led to further market share volume gains in UK soft drinks, with volume up 3.0% and value by a healthy 8.0%. Despite the threat of further regulatory intervention, continued profitable growth is anticipated for the coming financial year.
SCISYS Group plc SSY The Directors expect that the Company’s trading results for 2018 will comfortably meet current market guidance in respect of revenues and adjusted operating profit. The Group’s order book remains strong and it continues to see solid organic growth across the Group, notably in its Space and Enterprise Solutions & Defence division.
Bonmarche Holdings BON Expects the Group’s cash reserves to be adequate to meet its liquidity requirements, even at the lowest end of the PBT range, and when the cash balance is at its lowest, around the end of March. In the 13 weeks to the 29th December sales fell by 8.1% and in the 39 weeks to the same date they were down 2.7%. Online sales however were strong with rises of 22.2 and 26.5%.
RTC Group RTC strikes a positive note and the Chairman is extremely pleased and encouraged by “The continued growth of Group revenue and profits and the improvement in net debt position, especially in light of the uncertainty surrounding the UK economy.
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Alan Green on Cadence #KDNC Catenae Innovations #CTEA Warpaint London #W7L Bonmarche #BON & Andalas Energy & Power #ADL
Alan Green CEO of Brand Communications talks about: Cadence #KDNC Catenae Innovations #CTEA Warpaint London #W7L Bonmarche #BON & Andalas Energy & Power #ADL
(Interview starts at 22 minutes 3 seconds)
Brand CEO Alan Green discusses #PDZ, #IMCP and #BON with Justin Waite on the Vox Markets podcast
Brand CEO Alan Green discusses developments at Prairie Mining #PDZ, IMC Exploration #IMCP and VectorVest stock pick Bonmarche #BON with Justin Waite on the Vox Markets podcast. The interview is 34 minutes 26 seconds in.
Buy Bonmarche #BON in the run up to results says VectorVest. Management self help initiatives set to drive growth.
UK-based Bonmarche Holdings Plc (BON.L) is a womenswear value retailer focused on selling clothing and accessories in a range of sizes to women over 50 years old. The Company approximately has 270 stores in the UK. The Company offers a range of own brand womenswear, including coats and jackets, dresses, knitted tops, blouses, knitwear, t-shirts, leisurewear, skirts, trousers and shorts, lingerie, nightwear, swimwear, hosiery, footwear, accessories and jewellery. Its products are primarily sold through its own store portfolio, complemented by its Website, mail order catalogues, a telephone order service and through the Ideal World TV shopping channel. Subsidiaries include Bluebird UK Topco Ltd, Bluebird UK Holdco Ltd, Bonmarche Ltd and Bluebird UK Bidco 2 Ltd.
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On April 20th, 2018, BON published a trading update for the year ending March 31st2018 and confirmed that, reflecting the good progress achieved during the financial year, the FY18 profit before tax will be in line with Board expectations. CEO Helen Connolly said that as anticipated, trading conditions in the final quarter of the financial year remained challenging and, against this backdrop…” I am pleased that we have delivered an increase in the FY18 profit before tax compared to last year. Whilst we expect the market to remain difficult, our focus will be on continuing to improve our proposition to customers through a number of self-help initiatives, which we expect to drive further progress for the business during the new financial year.”The FY results announcement will be published on Tuesday 19thJune 2018.
In late March 2018, the VectorVest RT (Relative Timing) metric for BON flagged a move higher, indicating a possible buy opportunity for investors. RT is a fast, smart, accurate indicator of a stock’s price trend, and now with the stock trading at 101p, BON logs a current rating of 1.45 on this metric, which is excellent on a scale of 0.00 – 2.00. Other VectorVest metrics show the stock to be in positive territory, with a GRT (Earnings Growth Rate) of 15% considered to be very good. A fair RS (Relative Safety) rating of 0.85, (scale of 0.00 to 2.00) may see cautious investors avoid the stock, but regardless there is plenty of growth opportunity when taking into account the current VectorVest valuation of 130p.
The chart of BON.L is shown above in my normal format. The VectorVest program revalued the share during the first three months of 2018. The share has since charted an inverted head and shoulders pattern and is on a Buy recommendation on VectorVest. The first technical objective from the head and shoulders pattern is 125p
Summary: Many retail stocks have endured extended periods of tough trading over the past few years, and BON is no exception. However management have responded decisively to meet the challenging trading environment, and with further progress expected in the new financial year driven by self-help initiatives, VectorVest believes this quality retailer is worth backing for a sustained recovery in the run up to the results announcement. Buy.
Dr David Paul
May 30th 2018
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Plant Impact fears Impact
Plant Impact PIM fears that 4th quarter revenue could be affected by talks which are taking place with Bayer Cropscience about its minimum required purchase volumes for Veritas in Brazil, third quarter revenue for which rose from £0.5m last year to £2.4m this year. The result of the talks could impact full year results and also adversely affect next years performance. Revenue for the 9 months to the 30th April has risen by 55% over last year or 30% on a constant currency basis.
Care Tech Holdings CTH is increasing its interim dividend by 10% to 3.3p per share for the half year to 31st March after what it claims was an impressive first half performance which saw revenue rise by 11.3%. Profit before tax fell by 37.5% from last years when the figures included a £5.6m profit on the sale of a fixed asset.. On an underlying basis profit before tax was up by 13.9%. Sustained growth in capacity and revenue is expected to enable the company to achieve its target of annual double digit growth in underlying diluted earnings per share.
Filtronic plc FTC nearly tripled sales in the 12 months to 31st May, with a rise from £13.6m. to £35.4m.. It describes 2017 as a year of tremendous progress in which it achieved both profitability and cash generation, last years operating loss of of £6.8m having been transfomed into an operating profit of £1.7m.
Bonmarche Holdings BON admits that it has failed to execute its plans to modernise and improve its offer to customers at the rate it had aimed for. The failure is laid at the door of internal and external factors for which it does not provide an explanation. Todays preliminary results for the 53 weeks to the 1st April. show store like for like sales slumping by 4.3% and group profit before tax down from £9.6m. to £5.8m. Underlying basic earnings per share fell from 18.3p per share to 10.1p. As for the future it claims to have a compelling proposition and a robust plan.
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The Prime Minister – Liar or Incompetent ?
The Prime Minister was either a liar when she claimed only a few months ago that there was no need for an election before 2020, or she was so completely out of touch with the political realities of Westminster that she is completely unfit to govern the country. In those months since the referendum, nothing has changed except that the prime minister has woken up to the fact that the groupings of our elected MP’s, especially in her own party, are going to make it very difficult if not impossible to get approval for even the main features of the Brexit deal. How is it that she has only discovered this over the last few days, when the evidence has been staring her in the face for months.
Had she been CEO or Chairman of a public company, yesterdays announcement that the country (i.e. the PM ) suddenly needs an election in June would have been evidence of such utter incompetence that she would have to either resign or be removed. But this being politics, anything goes and she will get away with it but she has now shown herself to be and to have been, completely out of touch with feelings both in Westminster and in the Tory party. And she is so brazen about it, no hint of an apology, no sign of embarrassment as she admits that she got it completely wrong after the referendum, indeed the complete opposite. She wears her incompetence as a badge of pride, a clear sign of strong leadership, which will enable her, she hopes, to have such a large majority that every tiny clause in the Brexit deal will be able to be steamrollered through a tame House of Commons.
BUNZL BNZL provides an excellent illustration as to how meaningless trading figures are becoming and how headline figures can easily be selected to give a misleading impression and make things look better than they really are. Not that Bunzl has done anything wrong or misled in any way. It is just the way things now have to be done.
Thus group revenue in quarter 1 rose by 18%. Great, fantastic, but that is at actual exchange rates i.e. in real money. At constant exchange rates the 18% falls to a lowly 4% and of that, underlying growth comes out at a not very impressive 2%. Acquisitions produced growth of 3% and a further five acquisitions have been announced so far this year.
Aveva Group AVEVA expects that results for the year to the end of March will show a return to growth in both revenue and profits but only because of “positive currency translation effects”. Pity the board and the management could not have claimed a bigger hand in the success.
Bonmarche Holdings BON had a tough time with its stores in the year to the 1st April but trading in quarter 4 improved somewhat and helped the annual figures look a bit less gloomy. In the 14 weeks to 1st April online sales rose by 15.2%, store sales were down by only 0.5% and total sales actually rose by 2.7%. Despite this full year figures were still less than impressive, with store like for like sales down by 4.3%, online up by only 2.2% and total sales still showing a loss of 0.5%. Trading since Christmas has been challenging despite an improvement over the last two months.
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Brainjuicer Trading Strongly Again
Brainjuicer BJU regained momentum in 2016 and traded strongly, especially in the US, after the modest performance of the two previous years. Gross profit for the year to the end of December rose by some 27% to about £25.6m and even after payments of £5.2m to shareholders by way of dividends and share buy backs, the year ended with a cash balance of £7.8m., equal to 63p per share. Pre tax profit for 2016 is expected to be 37% higher at £6.2m. Final results are expected on the 9th February.
Midatech Pharma MTPH expects revenue for the year to 31st December will have risen to £9m from 2015’s £1.4m. Double digit top line growth is expected for 2017.
Bonmarche Holdings BON had a fairly disastrous Xmas with like for like store sales for the 5 weeks to 24th December down by 3.4% and online sales, unlike other retailers, slumping by 14.3%. Total like for like sales over the 5 weeks fell by 4.2%. Obviously there seems to have been a problem with t heir online offer. Christmas trading was only a continuation of the fall seen over the first 9 months when total sales fell by 5.3%
Character Group CCT expects first half results to be lower than last years as sales of Teletubbies, Fireman Sam et al fell slightly for the 4 months to December. The fall in the value of sterling also adversely affected gross UK margins and the company has taken measures to mitigate this and these are already starting to take effect.
Elecosoft ECO expects profit before tax for the year to the end of December will be significantly ahead of market expectations after 2016 produced record sales. furt her progress is expected in 2017
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Warmest For Over 350 Years and Bonmarche Blames The Cold
Bonmarche BON. Lame excuses from the CEO of Bonmarche as he blames the cold winter weather for a poor 4th quarter performance. Figures released today show that the winter of 2016 will have been the warmest for over 350 years, so pull the other one Mr. Butterwick.
The year got off to a good start with the January sales but then February and March became challenging because of this alleged cold winter, which the company says was unhelpful in kick starting real demand for its spring products.
Winters should be cold. We wrap up for them. They occur in January, February and the first 3 weeks of March – every year.
Like for like sales rose by 0.5% in quarter 4 (i.e. to the 26th March) and by 1% for the full year, whilst total sales for the year were up by 5.3%.
Lack of consumer confidence also affected the company’s performance and profits are expected to be at the lower end of guidance. It is not going to get any better either, with 2017 looking to be challenging and the outlook cautious. One wonders, if they are reduced to making excuses which just don’t wash, should they not be taking a look at their product range or their management.
Marks & Spencer MKS is at last going back to its roots and waking up to the fact that the number crunchers who run great swathes of British industry and commerce are not really fit for purpose. If we had relied on the number crunchers there would never have been an M&S, a Morrisons, Tesco, BHS, Premier Foods or a Sainsbury. Most of the High street was created by men with their feet on the ground and fire in their bellies, men who understood what the public wanted and gave it to them at prices they could afford.
The number crunchers have ensured that we do not have a single supermarket which can compete with Lidl or Aldi because not one of them has ever had to sell, sew or bake anything to earn a living.
The first sign of rebellion has come from Marks, whose new chief Exec. started with the company as a Saturday boy and has been with it ever since.
He has not only thought the unthinkable but has actually had the courage to say it – Marks performance in clothing is unacceptable – and he is going to do something about it.
Marks decline started with the introduction of food departments, many, many years ago but it was and always has been primarily a clothing store, where quality and price and the customer came first. It looks like Marks may once again and at long last be being run by a shopkeeper. Long may he reign.
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