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ABF – Sugar And Primark Lead The Success
Associated British Foods ABF reports another highly successful year with a rise of 51% in profit before tax and 47% in earnings per share, including profits resulting from the sale of businesses. Without that bonus and after growth of 6% in revenue for the year to the 16th September, the adjusted rises in profit before tax and earnings per share still came in at a very respectable 22% and 20% respectively. Sugar profits recovered strongly over the year and Primark still has potential for growth, having opened a net 30 stores and 1.5m sq. ft. of selling space across nine countries. The final dividend has been increased to 29.65p. per share making a total increase for the year of 12%.
Direct Line Ins.Grp. DLG has seen the good momentum in the first half continue into quarter 3 with Motor, Commercial and Rescue businesses all trading well. Motor premiums rose by 7.1% and own brand policies were up by 5.5%. Total premiums, despite a fall of 3.9% in Home, increased by 2.8% led by own brands which were up by 8.3%. Claims experience in Home has seen an improvement in the high inflation rate previously affecting escape of water claims (presumably that means flooding to you and me).
Imperial Brands plc IMB Preliminary results for the year to 30th September saw tobacco volume falling further by 4.1% and net revenue down by 2.4%, despite which the company claims it was an important year of progress with dividends per share rising by 10%. Total adjusted operating profit and earnings per share declined by 3.2% and 2.2% respectively but on a reported basis, revenue was up by 9.5% and operating profit by 2.2%. Gains in market share have been achieved in what the company regards, as its priority markets.
Hiscox Ltd. HSX Gross written premiums for the 9 month to the 30th September grew by 12.4% in sterling or 4.9% at constant currency rates. Claims for major hurricane catastrophes will now be less than originally feared when it was expected that claims for Harvey & Irma alone would come to US$225m. whereas current estimates are that the same figure will now also cover claims for hurricane Maria as well.
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ABF Expects Good Full Year Growth From Primark
AB Foods ABF Markdowns at Primark have fallen even more since the third quarter, further improving the outlook for the full year to the 16th September. Good growth is now expected in both adjusted operating profit and earnings per share. The weakness of sterling has also played its part and will provide a currency windfall of some £85m.
Restore plc RST has produced strong organic growth across the group for the half year to the 30th June and the interim dividend is to be increased by 26% to 1.67p pr share. Like for like revenue rose by 57%, EBITDA and profit before tax were both up by 59% and earnings per share by 38%. It is anticipated that the full year performance will be slightly ahead of previous expectations.
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ennant Group PEN managed to deliver a pre tax profit for the six months to the 30th June with revenue rising from £6.6m. to £9m. Profit before tax rose from a lowly £10,582 in the first half of 2016 to £935,353 and earnings per share showed a similar sharp rise from 0.04 to 2.84p per share. Delays in a major UK contract however, mean that for the full year revenues will be below current market expectations. in the longer term, the company has a strong order book and an encouraging pipeline for the three years to 2020 and beyond.
Seeing Machines Ltd. SEE saw second half sales rise by 250% over the first half and full year Fleet business at A$9.1m almost tripled that of 2016. The Fleet business is described as being a tremendous success with strong growth in the markets in which it participates. The strong momentum is expected to continue in 2018. However continuing major investment has meant that the net loss before tax has soared from last years A$1.6m to A$28.5m.
Science in Sport plc SIS has reached agreement with Team Sky for the renewal of its contract for a further three years.
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Is Primark Ex Growth ?
The problem for ABF is that the growth in average retail selling space at Primark was also 13%, exactly the same as revenue growth without any exchange rate benefits – – so where, one may ask, is the like for like revenue growth. The only growth at Primark on these figures came from currency benefits which lifted revenue growth up to 21% and from increased selling space.
Without any greater detail, the figures appear to assert that Primark did not enjoy any like for like growth and went ex growth during those 40 week,. despite the claim that it has increased its market share. The only saving grace is that there was a spurt during the last 16 weeks when sales rose by 15% at constant currency rates and 21% at actual rates. Third quarter trading prior to Easter was particularly strong.
easyJet EZJ June passenger statistics showed year on year growth of 11.3% and load factor rose again to 94.1%. Checking on some fares,appears to indicate that all pretence of being a budget airline appears to have been abandoned. Despite that the load factor indicates that it must still have something going for it. Perhaps it is the punctuality.
Bovis Homes BVS Trading for the 6 months to the 30th June has been in line with expectations but the group C.E.O. is confident a successful turn round can be delivered. He has visited all regions and 85 sites as part of the process but completions for the full year are still expected to be 10-15% down on 2016.
Churchill China CHH has enjoyed strong growth in its export markets for the half year to 30th June as it continued to benefit from the weakness of sterling.
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Weak Sterling Continues to Hit Primark
Associated British Foods ABF expects excellent progress in adjusted operating profit and earnings per share for the half year to the 4th March. Primark sales are expected to be11% ahead at constant currency rates and 21% ahead at actual exchange rates but on a like for like basis UK Primark sales will show growth of only 2%, positively pedestrian compared with past performances. Most of the groups extra profit will come in the current half and there are warnings that sterling’s weakness last year will produce greater margin decline in Primark in the second half of this year..
In grocery, revenue and operating profit are expected to be ahead of last year and sugar is expected to be well ahead.
Bunzl BNZL is increasing its dividend for the year by 11% after producing a set of strong results for the year to the end of December and continuing 24 years of unbroken dividend growth. Statutory operating profit and profit before tax each rose by 12% and basic earnings per share by 14%.
Hiscox HSX admits that its strong results for the year to the end of December have been flattered by foreign exchange movements, as well as by a strong investment returns. Profit before tax, with an increase of 64% grew to record levels and the final dividend is being increased by 15% to 27.5p. Gross written premiums for the year grew by 23.6%
Persimmon PSN continued to outperform in 2016 and is to repay shareholders a further 25p per share on the 31st March as a first interim dividend for 2016. That is in addition to the already agreed second interim dividend of 110p. per share which will be paid on the 3rd July. Underlying profit before tax for 2016 rose by 23% on revenue for the year which was up by 8%. Underlying basic earnings per share rose by 19%. The average selling price during the year was increased by what for housebuilders is the very modest amount of 3.8%. Forward sales at the year end showed an increase of 9%
Rotork plc ROR despite a “currency tailwind” of 10%, 2016 profit before tax still slumped by 20% and earnings per share by 19.9%. The trading environment did stabilise in the second half but any near term growth in the nergy market is expected to be modest, reflecting those sombre thoughts, the full year dividend is raised by 1%.
Dechra Pharm plc DPH All products produced sales growth in the half year to 31st December and growth in recently acquired businesses, exceeded expectations. Total group revenue was up by 34.7% at constant exchange rates or 55.9% and actual exchange rates. Underlying operating profit rose by 28.6% and EBITDA by 27.7%
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Primark Sales Fall as UK Weather Bites
Associated British Foods ABF Whoever would have thought that ABF would be reduced to the state where it has to blame poor sales at Primark on unseasonable UK weather. First Christmas was too hot and then March and April were too cold, it bleats. It has also joined that raft of companies which has now started to benefit substantially from the weakness of sterling, which was supposed to help the UK’s manufacturing industries export more not save the management of companies like ABF from embarassing results. At constant currency Primark sales are expected to have been 9% ahead for the 53 weeks to 17th September but the unavoidable truth is that like for like sales fell 2%.
Overall ABF expects the second half operating performance will have been ahead of expectations plus added benefits coming from sterling weakness. Full year earnings per share are expected to be marginally ahead of last year, as are grocery revenues.
Anglo Asian Mining AAZ Stronger metal prices have helped Anglo Asian return to profitability for the half year to 30th June, last years loss of $4.1m being turned into a profit of $3.5m. Strong first half production figures saw record copper and silver production with gold slightly down but gold bullion sales fell sharply. The figures were also helped by a fall of 26% in cash operating costs.
Restore plc RST is increasing its interim dividend by 33% after like for like adjusted profit before tax rose by 26% for the half year to 30th June. Revenue for the half year rose by 26% on a like for like basis and EBITDA by 37%
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HSBC Worried About China
HSBC (HSBA) has found slowing growth in China is creating a bumpier financial environment and becoming an increasing cause for concern. Reported profit before tax for 2015 rose by 1% (far, far less than Chinas reported growth ) and operating costs rose by a sturdy 5%. At least it had a year free of new scandals and penalties.
Associated British Foods (ABF) has found the recent weakness of sterling providing a welcome bonus during its first half year to 27th February. In the UK bakery market prices are at their lowest for 8 years, wich is of course a good thing, unless you happen to be in the UK bakery market. Primark sales for the half year are expected to be up by 7% but trading at Christmas was weaker because of unseasonably warm weather across Europe – this of course ensured that shoppers could go out and enjoy their Christmas shopping without having to trudge through ice, snow and sleet or even worse, remain housebound. .Any excuse is better than none for the busy executive.
Petra Diamonds (PDL) has been badly hit by lower diamond prices to the extent that it allows the dreaded word “impacted” to creep into its interim results. Net profit after tax for the six months to 31st December fell by 85%, revenue was down by 28% and adjusted EBITDA by 43%. Profit margins remained at a healthy 36% and production rose by 2%. The first tender of the second half saw both stable prices and more stable market conditions, which cold provide a ray of hope for the second half.
Bovis Homes (BVS) enjoyed record profits and revenue as the overheated housing market continued to boom in 2015. Profits for the year to the end of December rose by 20%, revenue by 17% and the full year dividend is increased by 14%. Forward sales at the year end were up by 14% on the previous year. Demand for new homes continues to run ahead of supply, thereby enabling 2015’s average selling price to be hiked by 7%.
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Has Primark Gone ex Growth ?
Associated British Foods, ABF, owners of Primark have been reduced to claiming that Primark has been impacted by currency rates. Amazing how when things start to go wrong currency rates is the directors first choice as to where to lay the blame. The fact that in the previous years of heady growth, currency rates never got a mention as being in any way responsible for the success – allegedly superb management alone was responsible then.
Now management has also had to admit that its decisions to open new stores in Germany and the Netherlands impacted its existing outlets and caused a fall in sales in those outlets.
Like for like sales in the past 16 weeks have only been in line with those of last year and continue to be held back by the effect of those new stores in the Netherlands and Germany. The UK it claims delivered a positive like for like performance but the details as to how positive, are not mentioned. Primark usually trumpets its growth figures in every announcement. Why has UK growth now become a closely guarded secret ?
As for currency problems, Primark sources most of its products in dollars and the strength of the dollar has impacted margins. It claims that it is now taking action to remedy this.
Over the first 40 weeks to date, total sales rose by 13% on a constant currency basis or by 9% on an actual currency basis due to the weakness of the Euro. Selling space in that period however, increased by 8%.
No doubt all will be revealed at the year end but flat like for like sales over a 4 month period, may not bode well. Let us hope that management does not have to delve even deeper into the excuses drawer.
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